Eric Longenhagen Chat: 4/10/2020

Eric A Longenhagen: hey hey hey, everyone… give me like 30 seconds

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, chat

Eric A Longenhagen: let’s do it

CL: What is the contingency plan for MiLB? Say MLB plays in spring training complexes, would MiLB play on the back fields?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t read nightengale’s piece yet. I think we might see teams have a minor league roster and a half, maybe a roster or two, playing backfield games. You’d ideally have a way to keep reserves sharp in case of injury and I’d bet every team has prospects who aren’t part of that consideration who they’d still like to get reps.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I don’t know for sure, that’s speculation. We’re probably a while away from that being decided and I’d guess it’s more likely we see some kind of widespread minor league play in the fall

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: In your opinion, who among the Padres teenaged July2 prospects is most likely to make a Patino like leap? Or do you think none of them have that talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Am I limited to the pitchers? Yeah probably none, though Patino was like 86-90 at one point and just kept throwing harder and harder as he got stronger. I guess it’s possible another one of these 5-foot-10 pitchability types in their teens is suddenly throwing in the mid-90s sometime in 2021 but you could throw a dart at their names and have as good a chance at guessing which one as I do.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jesus Gonzalez is the guy who has already had a velo bump. He’s pretty swole. Efrain Contreras and Luarbert Arias are maxed out, Guarate probably has the best chance to grow into real velo of the group.

Eric A Longenhagen: hitter-wise, it’s gotta be the infielders with power potential: Santana and Preciado

Jack: What level (MLB, AAA, AA, etc) would you say the KBO is equivalent to?

Eric A Longenhagen: Closest to Double-A from a tools/talent POV, imo.

Mike: Is there a single non-backend starting pitching prospect in the Giants system, apart from Seth Corry and maybe Hjelle? Most lopsided system to one side of the game in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: They have a few monster bullpen arms lurking, too. Most systems are full of guys with no 4/5 start ceilings…

TP: How does the development of a new pitch impact a prospect’s future value? Like, what if a two pitch pitcher develops a third pitch during the off-season? Are there any top prospects whose FV would jump dramatically if they were able to develop a new pitch? Is the potential to learn new pitches incorporated into FV, or is it something that you adjust FV after the fact (i.e. seeing is believing)?

Eric A Longenhagen: That info travels at speeds unique to the individual player and writer. I may be at a field watching a guy work with a new pitch, hear the kids who are charting talk about, and see it as it’s happening. Or I may not hear about it until I get on the phone with someone in the offseason to talk about an org, top to bottom. I do project on pitch grades. I won’t go so far as to say something like “Hey, this guy’s changeup is terrible and I think he’ll end up with two different breaking balls instead, so he has a 20/55 slider grade on The Board.” but I’ll assume a change like that is more possibel than before

Mason: Hardest gun reading you’ve ever seen that looked correct ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ray Black 103

Jared: Do you think that northern prep players that didn’t play much (if at all) this spring have any shot at improving their draft stock if scouts are unable to get additional in person looks? An example: a video of Mick Abel surfaced on Twitter this week and he looks more physical and the Rapsodo video shows him touching 99.5. Does that even matter at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: MLB has enabled prospects to upload video to teams via an online portal. I guess it’s helpful if you have ways of verifying what you’re seeing is real.

Greg: You credited the Braves last week for their creative haul in the draft. Where do you think it ranked?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was a creative approach but that’s not a value judgement. I’m not high on their early-round picks, save for maybe…

Larry: Does Braden Shewmake have every day SS potential? What are the weaknesses?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do think Kiley and I were low on Shewmake, pre-draft. He’s a bunch of 50s and 55s who can play short, has feel for contact and a huge frame.

nb: Hey Eric – Hope you’re surviving this mess okay. I love your work and this site (yes, I upgraded from the $20 sub to $50). I was just wondering about the upcoming schedule for prospect rankings. This is my favorite analysis and the long Pads column made my Thursday almost seem normal for a few hours. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ll have a Rangers list and draft update next week, then the next group of org list include CLE, CIN, CWS, LAD, the order of which may vary.

RT: Over/under 3.5 HS prep arms drafted in 1st round?

Eric A Longenhagen: under

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d set o/u at 2.5, btw. Abel, Bitsko, and half of Kelley

Jeff: Will this draft be extremely college heavy thanks to more reliable data to work with and, more importantly, to further strengthen the NCAA internship to MLB pipeline?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think a group of people sit in a room and say “Let’s include the scouting staffs in this conspiracy to outsource dev to NCAA. Tell them to draft more college guys.”

Eric A Longenhagen: I spoke with someone who thinks teams will do the opposite and draft more HS players

Eric A Longenhagen: But the talent in the draft is still college-heavy, and I think wanting to acquire the best talent vetoes a lot of other, lesser motivations.

MSW: So let’s say it’s well in to the summer before games can reasonably start, and there’s no real way to play more than 50 or so this season. Would MLB consider doing a WBC-style tournament instead of the actual season? Maybe break up the US by region or even state to get more teams in the mix?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m sure a pool play scenario has been raised. They’re almost certainly exhausting and scrutinizing every conceivable idea at this point, everyone wants there to be games if they can create a situation where it’s safe to have them.

Scotty: I’m sure you’ve answered this before somehwere, but how do you determine a pitcher’s command ceiling? If they don’t have command now, how can you predict they will find it?

Eric A Longenhagen: Athleticism is still my most influential variable there

Jeff: Why do right handed pitchers throw much harder than left handed pitchers?

Eric A Longenhagen: righty population is significantly larger than lefty pop, so there are more of them who throw harder.

Cole: Hudson Head seems like he’s ripe for a pick to click type. Are you expecting, or leary of a year of “treading water” as he acclimates further to the most difficult pitching he’ll have seen in his life? Thanks as always.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think, if he’s truly an elite player who ends up on the 100 a year from now, that he’ll just perform no matter what.

Matt: Are you higher on Grayson Rodriguez or DL Hall? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Grayson by a good bit https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-40-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

Jabroni: Gut feel: is the draft 5 or 10 rounds?

Eric A Longenhagen: 5

Numpty: I’m still trying to adjust to working where I wake up. What are the best and worst things about working from home?

Eric A Longenhagen: The best is when I could get a bunch of stuff done, then sneak off to see a movie at like 3pm on a weekday. The worst is that lack of demarcation between parts of your life and how sneaky bad for you that can be. Isolate work to a specific area of the house. No screens in bed.

Ian: Is it fair to assume Ed Howard has a limited offensive ceiling or is there just more risk with his offensive profile?

Eric A Longenhagen: The former

Insert Clever Name Here: You mentioned in a June chat that you liked Yermin Mercedes hitting but seemed pretty pessimistic about his ability behind the plate. Out of curiosity, has the bat been enough to put him on the White Sox list (even in HM), or are there enough questions to warrant not including him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh I’m all in on that guy now

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s going to mash.

Eric A Longenhagen: White Sox are really clogged at DH and corner spots, though.

Amy: Were you able to see Robert Pauson in the back fields this spring? If so, what are your takeaways?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was around the AZL team last summer already, have seen a lot of him working out, taking infield and BP, games in the fall, then just walking around facility this spring. He was in the weight room during the offseason, for sure. He’s as advertised.

Jonathan: All things equal, would you prefer a prospect with a more traditional delivery than Gore?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmmm, good question…

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess not? I think there’s “good weird” and “bad weird” and Gore’s delivery is good weird.

Joser: Feels like the writing is on the wall for some major changes to the minor leagues. I’m reading that rookie and short-season leagues may be a thing of the past and replaced by complex leagues. How do you think the minors will change between now and 2022?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the proposed minor league contraction will occur, more development will occur on the complexes.

Jabroni: Is Bryce Jarvis a 1st rounder?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most years, yeah.

Eric A Longenhagen: trying to rpid fire for the last ten minutes or so

Eric A Longenhagen: have a radio hit to do close to the top of the area

alt.colonel: Thank you for your hard work. I just made a small donation to FG and hope others are contributing, as well. This question might take a few minutes for you to answer. Who is the best prospect you have ever seen at each position and at RHP and LHP? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: so long as you’re okay with just the list, it shouldn’t take very long…

Eric A Longenhagen: C- Adley
1B- Bellinger
2B – Moncada? Albies?
3B- Vlad and Rendon
SS- Lindor
CF- Trout
Corner OF Acuna and Harper
RHP Cole
LHP Chapman

The board: I have to wonder if Edward Olivares is the most underrated prospect in the minors. He’s criminally overlooked, by you included.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Lansing –> Elsinore —-> Amarillo (lotta dudes had big #s) is inflating your assessment.

Guest: Still high on Forrest Whitley? Also you’re the GM…. who do you take longterm, Gore or Pearson?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes. gore.

Danny: Chances that Soderstrom, Wells and Parada stay at catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wells least likely, greatest on Soderstrom

kcbg: Eric, we really appreciate the continued prospect coverage! It is invigorating/distracting to get new baseball tidbits while we are stressed working from home. Yeison Santana was a new name for me. The youngsters represent hope, future, better days ahead. Prospect coverage, in one sense, is an essential service. Thanks again!

Eric A Longenhagen: thank you thank you…couple more here

Yard Goat: Do you think the international signing period will be shifted or changed at all this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, think they’re almost certainly pushed to January

Guest: What did scouts miss on re deGrom and who today might we be missing on similar things?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think it was scout failure so much as randomness. A conversino arm exploded late, that’s all. He’ll, he’s still getting better, velo up again last year for fifth consecutive year. Tahnaj Thomas is the one who I think has a shot at late-developing growth that makes him really good.

Jeff: Quellek just died in Galaxy Quest…I can’t stop crying

Eric A Longenhagen: by grabthar’s hammer, he shall be avenged

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’ve gotta go. Join me next week to talk draft updates, etc.