Eric Longenhagen Chat- 5/29/2020

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from scorching hot tempe, where it’ll be 107 today. Boiling everywhere, it seems.

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume most of the chat is aware of this week’s mock, but if you’re not might wanna familiarize yourself with it quickly since I expect it’ll be a focal point of our discussion today.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s begin

Jefferson: Whats the story on Nick Gonzales defensive skills? So many reports completely skip over that. Is it not a concern? Is he definitely going to stay in the middle of the infield?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he stays on the middle infield but that there’s a chance he’s not a good one. He’ll make some spectacular plays, boot some easy ones and we didn’t get a full spring to stamp the position. It’s another reason the Kesotn Hiura comps fit from a profile perspective. You’re drafting him for the bat, it’s a bonus if he sticks.

RS: Pretty much every mock has the Giants either taking or linking Tyler Soderstrom, is that the buzz you’re hearing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Soderstrom gets mentioned anywhere from 9 through the mid-20s, and yes the Giants are thought to be one of the clubs whose mix he’s in. Prep catching is risky and I think those types tend to fall, so I think he gets picked toward the back of that range. SFG seems to be more open to risk (shorter performance track record, high schoolers, players who barely/didn’t play this spring) based on early chatter.

Earnest: Odds we see our first straight to the show draftee since Mikey Leake this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think we will. College pitching is the most likely demo to do it, and there’s an awful lot of it this year, plus (hopefully) a more variable season format that means more teams have a chance to make the playoffs and therefore are motivated to start service clock, plus the college arms didn’t throw very much during the spring…

Eric A Longenhagen: lots of stuff pushing it that way

Carlos: With no ges being played, are pro scouts in any way involved in draft evaluations of players, weighing in on decisions?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, the pro scouts I’ve spoken to over the last several months have been up to a couple different things. Some of them have been doing stuff related to pro scouting, like putting together a top-to-bottom pref list of an org they’re unfamiliar with by using data and video, or looking for sleepers. Others have been tasked with making draft evaluations based on video.

Love in the Time of COVID: Yay or nay this draft strategy for the Cubs: Burl Carraway/Andrew Abbott at 16, Nick Griffin/Ricky Tiedemann with the next pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: Meh, I think you could probably do a better prep arm at 16 and get a comparable college reliever at 51.

Guest: What are the odds that someone other than Tork, Martin and Lacy slides into the top 3 picks?

Eric A Longenhagen: 30-ish% chance of rain? It seems like Baltimore has at least kicked the tires on an underslot deal at 2. That’s the most likely way it happens.

Winston: If they bang the season would televising a 30 team instructional league be the next best option? As much as I enjoy the KBO it hasn’t been healthy for my sleep schedule (or bank account) and I really just wanna see some big league talent

Eric A Longenhagen: I think people would feel really weird about watching innings get rolled. You can’t concede the developmental focus of instructs. It’d be cool to do an eval/dev-focused broadcast, but you can’t make it about who wins and who doesn’t.

Jim: Wowza, Polcovich ain’t a sleeper no more. You think he goes in the 3rd?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, just between the pro lists and draft stuff, some of these guys are gonna move late. I think he’s in the 3rd/4th, bat speed, runs pretty well, could be 2B/OF type on D.

Trent Hauser: Jared Kelley joins a pretty prestigous list with that Gatorade thing. Can the Cubs have at 16?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be surprised if he were gone by 16.

Roger: What general shape could you see Giants pursuing with extra picks/pool allotment? Where might they try to carve out extra slot value and what players could they target to spend the extra on?

Eric A Longenhagen: They could execute something like last year, where they lean college early, cut a little bit (Bishop and Wyatt were under slot last year, combined created about 1mil in space), then took a couple $600-800k high schoolers

John: Indians prospect Carlos Vargas seems like a fitting comp for Slade Cecconi, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: From a body and arm action standpoint, yeah I see what you’re getting at.

Roger: Bitsko seems to be jumping all over the place, from 1st to 2nd rd consideration and back again. Why so volatile? Whereabout do you think he ends up going?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are teams who just aren’t comfortable taking him because they haven’t had enough looks, so he may have pockets where he just will not go based on that, and some where he may tumble due to signability. If he doesn’t go in the teens, they hey may slide past the back of the first round and into the comp where a team with the pool space created by those extra picks can get a deal done.

Michael: Let’s say you had access to amateur Trackman data from the 2020 season…what would you be researching mainly? Who’s metrics are you curious about?

Eric A Longenhagen: If someone sends me the entire class in a couple speadsheets, I’ll show you.

Jabroni: How concerned are teams regarding Garrett Mitchell’s medical condition?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends. Lots of athletes have played with diabetes and I’m not sure it’s the reason Adam Morrison didn’t work out, or that it’s a reasons Jay Cutler wasn’t better, ya know? Yes, it’s something else he has to manage, but being hyper-disciplined is already an integral part of being a pro athlete, so…

Almir Lima Jr.: Olá! Greetings from São Paulo, Brazil! I want to ask about the Mets approach to this year’s draft. Last year’s they showed a willingness to take risks in premium HS talent in the first few rounds. Do you think they may use a similar strategy to grab a Crow-Armstrong or Bitsko-type and take a few seniors in the late rounds? Rumors flying they are looking for college RHPs with their #1 pick. Thanks (and keep up the good work!)

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey man, thanks, stay safe down there. I think what they did last year was probably not something planned and rather something that was decided as Allan fell, and I think lots of teams are going to be competing for seniors earlier than normal this year and you’re less likely to get the ones you really like.

Cas: Maybe a dumb question…is there a chance that somehow not having spring baseball will be helpful

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you maybe want to phrase it as “will there be a prospect-related silver lining to this horrible mess?” The direct-to-majors possibility and long term draft interest it might generate was the first thing that came to mind.

Jabroni: Do you think it was Rob Manfred’s goal to destroy baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I think it’s ridiculous when people say stuff like that, as if someone has been working toward, for decades, an elaborate scheme to topple (insert industry or country or system, etc.) from the inside. I think Manfred’s goal is to make the owners money and that their collective fixation on that might strike an irreparable blow, but I don’t think that’s the explicit goal.

Gustavo: Pretty good Indians list, Eric. Did you get any hits on lefty reliever Kellen Rholl? I’ve heard there’s some loud stuff in his arm

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he’s one of the funky relief guys I alluded to in the summary. He sits about 88 and it looks like this:

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: The others: Robert Broom, Robbie Hitt, Skyler Arias.All side-armers who have performed and have a shot to be one of these “look” relievers, like late-career Sergio Romo, Joe Smith, Ziegler.

Frank: Surprise 1st rounder in two weeks is…

Eric A Longenhagen: Carson Tucker

Jared: Thoughts on pitchers with low spin fastballs (but still quality velo)? Are they the real outliers teams should be getting more of instead of high spin FB guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s more about the interaction of your spin rate, spin axis, and approach angle. You can have a dirty low-spin fastball if the other aspects suit it.

Eric: Which player has the most unique overall skillset in this draft and why? (For instance if a guy like Oneil Cruz was in this draft, he’d probably be the answer)

Eric A Longenhagen: I might be missing something off the top of my head, but we don’t have anything really nutty this year. Like, Anthony Seigler: switch-throwing catcher who can pitch and play 3B, too. This year we have some cool two-way types (Masyn Winn, Caden Grice, Tanner Witt) but nothing really crazy

Frank: Do you see any college JR sign for 20K? Maybe older day 3 players?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think we will and you picked the group it’s more likely to come from.

Scuttle…but?: Is pitch data like what’s been referenced in Emerson Hancock’s possible slip something he can adjust? 2-3 reasonable off speed pitches, could he simply add more 4-seams/fewer sinkers and excel?

Eric A Longenhagen: There may be ways to tweak his fastball, which has a lot of sidespin right now, and get it to carry. Or he can lean into the sinker/changeup archetype. I’m optimistic the fastball will play somehow.

Petey: I know fantasy ain’t your thing but I’m in an incredibly deep league and been sweating pulling the trigger on this deal: I get Chris Gittens/Yefri Del Rosario/Ryan Boldt for Tyreque Reed/Will Stewart/Ka’ai Tom

Eric A Longenhagen: Jesus.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the second group is better. Gittens might be in Korea soon. You have a weird stat freak in Tom, a buy-low in Stewart

Eric A Longenhagen: thanks for justifying list length, Petey

Smiling Politely: I since Kiley left, you’ve been looking to add to your writing responsibilities, so I just wanted to say I really enjoy reading about how different clubs go about about assessing prospects/the draft (favoring HS vs college, bats vs pitchers, more granular and weird things, etc.), and would love to read more insight about how clubs operate idiosyncratically, you know, if you’re looking for something else to do (but rly, ty!)

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re gonna want to read the last chapter of Future Value, where we attempt to do exactly that. We’ve had quite a bit of change at the director/gm spots in the last year so the teams picking…uh…. 7 through 16 or so? have a lot of new faces making picks.

Dylan: Will team’s behavior in paying their minor leaguers during the crisis have any meaningful effect on future recruiting efforts? If I was high level, but not elite talent, the A’s might instantly go off my list.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s going to have massive consequences. Furloughing scouts and releasing players en masse means you have so many pissed off ex-employees that surely some of them know sensitive info and are now glad to divulge it. It’s part of why things in Houston unfolded the way they did, I think.

Ryan: Out of player-development, scouting, and R&D which sector of baseball do you think will have the best job market in the future? I’m graduating from college soon and have some qualifications for all of them, but I think I want to specialize in one of them.

Eric A Longenhagen: R&D controls its own destiny, you can’t run out of questions to try to answer, and if you do you make your own questions. Dev and (especially) scouting jobs are subject to the number of players in the minors and that’s about to drop. Dev needs to be done in person, scouting can sometimes be done remotely, so scouting is in a precarious spot. Again, this is all in the book.

TigsforTork: What was the impetus for changing Austin Martin’s FV from 55 to 50 in the latest Board update?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lack of measurable power, more continued apprehension about where he ends up playing defense than I expected.

Farm Director: Jared Jones seems to have really good stuff that progressive teams would covet (as seen in his recent bullpens). His control really needs refinement, but I believe that it is largely a product of his violent head whack. Do you believe that fixing this mechanical flaw in his delivery is feasible, and could this change improve his command in pro ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Careful with those. Just because one slider spun 2700rpm doesn’t mean they all do, feel me?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Jones’ stuff, a lot. I’ve just never seen him throw strikes.

Zim: Any chance of a team punting their selection for Kumar in the future?

Eric A Longenhagen: ?

Trent Hauser: What does Cade Cavalli do better than Jared Shuster? Looks?

Eric A Longenhagen: He throws like 7mph harder. What’s going on, chat?

El Zilcho: Does Hancock throw a four-seamer at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s a four-seamer that has a sinker’s axis

Kevin: What caused Drew Romo to slide ~20 spots down the BOARD?

Eric A Longenhagen: concern about the hit tool, likely going to school

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, i’ve gotta split. thanks so much for your questions again this week. See you next Friday.