Eric Longenhagen Chat: 6/11/21

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, give me one second to adjust The Board to reflect the Wisler trade…

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, thanks, let’s get to it…

Mike: Any draft rumors for the top 5 picks (Red Sox rumors specifically would be appreciated)?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ll have our first mock early next week. Think PIT’s desire to cut at 1 means we won’t know who they’re on until the mixes behind them really solidify. Think Watson has a chance to be in the mix at two in addition to the obvious names. Boston I think would just take Leiter if there. Teams have BAL wanting to cut, too, prob w/ prep bat. It’s super early still

Mike: Anything on Spencer Strider this year? Stats seem impressive, does the scouting report match it?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s basically what I have on the Braves list (he was 22nd entering the year, 40 FV) except now he’s backed up the velo spike he showed during instructs by holding it to start this season. Still relief probability there.

Chris: Have you heard when/if the Dominican Summer League will start?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t heard when but folks with teams are talking about sending guys in Extended back to the DR as if they know a DSL is coming. There’s an AZL schedule already it’s just not public, same could be true for the DSL.

Heg: Are you buying the Gavin Williams hype? Is he ahead of Madden/Wicks/Rocker at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like him, not *that* much

Nick: Three teams most likely to pick Kumar Rocker?

Eric A Longenhagen: Royals, Angels, Nationals (again, early)

Greg: Will Michael Harris be a top 100 guy when you guys update next week?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, plate discipline has beenkinda scary

TImmy: Love your work. So far, which bats have I pressed you the most in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, Wander Franco? Guys who are really performing right now are: Joe Gray, Anthony Volpe, Miguel Vargas, Jonathan Arranda

Eric A Longenhagen: LIke I wouldn’t change my Volpe eval, I just think he’s a 45,  but it’s good he’s hitting in Low-A after missing his first full pro season last year

Sean: do you see DL hall getting a start for the Os this season?  Do you think he could have some of the similar issues Daniel Lynch has had starting off?

Eric A Longenhagen: Could have command issues but his fastball shape gives him more margin for error in that regard than Lynch.

Chris: How do teams plan on adding 20 draft picks to their organization given the cut down in players from previous years. Mid-season cuts? Will the draftees just go to the team’s facility and do some sort of instructs?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there are a couple ways to diffuse the pressure. First, you can sign college pitchers but don’t have to assign them to an affiliate. Most of the college arms will have blown through last year’s innings total already and are more likely to be shut down after the draft. I think you’ll see some combo of releases and promotions to accommodate the new class.

Luis Garcia (WAS): At what point should I be given consistent MLB ABs? It’s not like Starlin Castro or Josh Harrison should be blocking me and shouldn’t the Nats want to look to 2022 and see if I can be trusted to start next year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Right now

Teddy Ballgame: In the college ranks, do you feel there are more/better hitters to get excited about in the 2022 and 2023 classes than the 2021 class?  Significantly so?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, this year’s class is a little light on college prospects in general (in terms of top three rounds talent, it’s deep beyond that) so I’m betting the next couple are better.

Cave Dameron: What cheese do you use in a grilled cheese?

Eric A Longenhagen: combo of cheddar and gruyere, I also like to add some dijon and paprika

Chris: Can you name three or four bats that many people don’t know about, but you think will or have chance to become stars? Anyone specific from your picks to click. .Org outside of that, based on what you have seen so Far?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I don’t know how to gauge “many people” not knowing about a player. Like do people know who Noelvi Marte is? Or Luis Matos? I think they should if they’re paying attention to the prospect content here at all, but because they’re not Franco or whatever maybe they don’t? I’m not sure.

Keefths: Jesus Sanchez has slowed down considerably. Do you see him succeeding in the bigs ? Or is his approach too flawed ?

Eric A Longenhagen: His approach is terrible and has continued to be during this epic hot stretch at Triple-A. I’m not moving him onto the 100 or anything like that, I’ve put my hand on that stove before.

Hal: Hearing some major trending up arrows for Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty….can you confirm?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel pretty good about where Alvarez is right now. Baty will basically switch places with Vientos on the 100 update next week.

Pete: What percent chance is there that Taylor Dollard becomes a #4 starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a 2-ish WAR guy, Zach Davies type. Probably like 30%?

John b: Cards gave up on Carson Kelly and now have Knizner as Yadi’s backup with Herrera in AA.  Who is Yadi’s heir apparent or is neither of these guys the one ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Herrera

Curious: I realize he graduated from the Giant’s prospect list last year, but do you still think Logan Webb is a 45 FV?  He’s had a great year so far, even though he’s been hurt.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, he’s a 45 in part because of the injury history

Keith: I keep seeing the Braves tied to college arms.  What do you see them doing with the 24th pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: way too early to proj specific names at 24

Eric A Longenhagen: But college arms seem like a logical demo given their recent history. But again, no specific dope right now

Andrew: Has Reid Detmers ceiling risen because of his velocity increase?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah but I’d like to see him hold into deeper into the summer

Brice: Shea Langeliers has been hitting the ball well so far at AA. I know he’s been universally praised for his defense so what does an uptick in offense mean for his future?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s going to be an impact offensive player but definitely a good all-around everyday catcher.

Normen Yost: any ETA on the Brewers list? not trying to rush just jonesin to find out more about the pitching in the system

Eric A Longenhagen: Monday or Tuesday. One of my sources had a medical emergency otherwise it would have released yesterday or today.

Sara: Drafted Vidal Brujan in a dynasty league 2 years ago thanks to your helium. Thanks! Should be up soon, yeah? Probably play all over as the Rays do.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’ll take injury for a promotion. Think he’s their big piece most likely to be dealt, fwiw.

Friedman: Is Miguel Vargas ready for a move to AA? Is he more than just a guy in the big leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think yes, they should promote him. Still tend to think his ceiling is a 50 just because he’s near the bottom of defensive spectrum

Phillip Jeffries: Do you feel Dillion Dingler is a likely upgrade to 50FV at some point during the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guarantee it

Mac: Is Colson Montgomery a first rounder?

Eric A Longenhagen: think he goes in the 2nd

Guest: Concerned about S Howard and the continued drop in velocity?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes, his issues have persisted for about a year now

Curious: Do you think Kevin Parada improved his draft stock for next year?  Top 10 is pretty lofty already, but he had a phenomenal year for the Jackets.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but have him behind Logan Tanner still.

Dennis: It’s early, and COVID ruined 2020, but was curious which team(s) 2019 and 2020 draft sticks out to you the most as far as early returns go?

Eric A Longenhagen: Miami, Dodgers

Eric A Longenhagen: I also think Braves over slot HS guys from 2019 have been good

Jacob: The first prospect report I read on Angel Zerpa was where you had him top 10 on the Royals list, and he’s been shoving as a 21 y/o in Hi-A.  Is this just a case of a pitcher using advanced command to overwhelm lower level competition, or is there noticeable improvement that will allow his stuff play as he climbs the ladder?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s def a pitchability guy but I think it’s going to play in the big leagues. Change and breaker are both good, fastball has late mvmt that plays even without big velo

Eric A Longenhagen: Tired: Moving up guys with bad approaches
Wired: finding the lefty pitchability guys we keep missing on as a public-facing genre of baseball writing (Ethan Elliott, Zerpa, Josh Dye, etc.)

Norm: How common are catcher pickoffs in the minors

Eric A Longenhagen: Common. It’s important for guys to work on throwing to the bases. I watched a guy throw over on three consecutive pitches in Extended yesterday

Jake: I know you had Raleigh as a Pick to Click. How much are you buying his hot start in Tacoma?

Tyler: Would you consider Henry Davis a top 4 draft prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: On Raleigh: Yep, think he’s just a 50 soon.

Eric A Longenhagen: On Davis: Hell yes

Teddy Ballgame: If you had to pick one outcome for the O’s Kyle Bradish in MLB; mid-rotation, backend rotation, bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looking more like five-and-dive starter type w/ mid-rotation shot

Guest: Cade Cavalli had a huge jump in BA’s updated top 100 (from 82 to 33). Has his performance so far changed your opinion of him, and if so, how do you view him now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wow, all the way to 33? It’s good to see him performing, he’s in the mix for KG and I to move into the 50 FV tier probably more in the mix toward the back of the 100 with guys we still think have relief risk rather than a slam dunk guy in the 55 FV range.

Norm: Do you have any word on how Gage Workman‘s defense at SS has looked?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually do not, sorry. Good question tho

Phillip Jeffries: How does Jobe compare with recent top HS arms?

Eric A Longenhagen: Deeper repertoire, slightly better present stuff, but with less body projection than Priester, Abel.

Guest: it feels like it’s been a pretty meh year for AL rookies this year. vaughn and arozarena haven’t impressed, kelenic flopped, the pitchers that have come up haven’t done much. who’s your AL rookie of the year favorite? someone not up yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s Adolis Garcia’s to lose at this point, no?

Fred: Thairo Estrada — real changes or just a hot streak?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta remember that this guy got shot, then had botched surgeries. It’s possible he’s just finally healthy now. Was a 45 FV at peak, thought he could be a low-end everyday SS

Patrick: Any clue who Rockies are leaning towards? Would they take Jobe even with poor history with HS RHP?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have been told they’re on Benny Montgomery and whatever college bat they like who might still be around.

Jacob: Are we getting a sweeping board update after the last list drops?  I imagine that the FVs for some of those earlier teams have changed a bit.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll start pulling graduates off and then adjusting individuals a la carte like usual

Eric A Longenhagen: with KG, I assume

blah: A lot of teams had unconventional pitching staffs in the minors to start the season (lots of piggybacks, very low pitch counts, fewer traditional starters)- have those trended towards more traditional staffs or are teams using this opportunity to convert their farm to the Rays major league model/Astros minor league model? Does it look more like a blip or a trend?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. I think teams are shifting toward it in general, but the pandemic accelerated it. This year it’s a great way to manicure workloads in addition to the other ever-present reasons to do it

Nick: What FV would you give Enrique bradfield rn?

Eric A Longenhagen: 45

GoCubsGo: I love your lists, so thanks so much for all the work you put into them. When might we expect the Cubs list? The velo jumps under the new dev staff have me excited

Eric A Longenhagen: Either late next week or early the following. Brewers, A’s (these might flip depending on the health of a source) then Cubs. Blame the Cubs for not letting media (mostly) into their facilities during minor league spring training.

TejayAntoneTruther: How big of a sample size do you anticipate will be necessary before plate discipline metric normalization occurs for players like Pedro Leon. who had long layoffs prior to signing?

Eric A Longenhagen: You guys are bringing damn good questions two weeks in a row. I know batted ball data stabilizes at something close to 50 events, which takes about a month to generate. I’d ballpark it at close to that and then expand the window because of layoff, so like 90 days/games?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s just a logical guess

daro: Seattle’s OF looks a bit crowded in the near future with Haniger, Lewis, Trammell, Kelenic, JRod. Should they try to trade Haniger?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eh, maybe. I bet they’d get a haul for him and maybe that’s enough reason to do it. But I also think it’s very likely that one of the names you mentioned busts. Like out of all of them, the chances of at least one of them busting for whatever reason is almost 100%, so it’s not like you’re just trading one guy because the rest are slam dunk regulars

Adam: When are you headed back east to visit family and see some games?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks like late-July? Deciding if I’m doing PA and FL in one 10-day trip or if I’m gonna drive up and down the mid-Atlantic for about a week.

Eric A Longenhagen: My mom’s in Florida now but the rest of the fam is still in PA.

barrust: Quick hits about the Wisler trade… good, bad? What do you think it means, with literally no time to think about it, for each team?

Eric A Longenhagen: Makes sense for SF to get a high-probability 40-man arm for a guy they acquired for almost nothing. Makes sense for TB to cash in prospect contributing to upcoming 40-man crunch for someone who can make their bullpen a little better right now

Charley: Your thoughts in Austin Martin? Long term outlook? Position? And power potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: Same as always: OBP and contact, plays all over the place. Think the power potential is lacking but still a really good player

Dusty: Thoughts on the Wander Javier resurgance? What’s his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has stigmata, huge ceiling

Purple Mays Haze: Still waiting on Brewers but as a sneak peek, have Korry Howell, Joe Gray Jr., Carlos Rodriguez, Felix Valerio, David Hamilton and Reese Olson all seem to have made big strides….you buying in?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I didn’t think Joe Gray was ever going ot hit but I’m def eating crow on that at the moment. Olson is real, four plus pitches with relievery delivery (wrote about him recently) Valerio and CRod are still in the role-player bucket because they  make contact but lack everyday power. Howell has had a legit power uptick tho, I think he ends up in CF. Hamilton might be in that low-end SS area, or utility guy. I loved Hamilton in HS and am so glad he’s healthy and crushing it.

Romorr: How close is a Gunnar Henderson 50 FV bump?  Same with Grayson to 60 FV?  Won’t ask about Hall, still think he needs to show a little more.  Any other Oriole prospects you thinking about as far as an updated FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gunnar bump yes, no Grayson bump (more about pitching in general than him specifically), Hall bump yes

Matt: Is Duran a top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the change to his batted ball data is sufficient enough for us to say the swing change has indeed had a significant impact on his output, yes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Jarren Duran – Stats – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: dropped from 50% grounders to 30%

Keefths: What does baseball shape mean ? Is it spin ? Vertical / horizontal movement ? Release point ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah so like James Karinchak‘s fastball movement has vertical shape, Brady Singer’s is lateral.

Billy G: safe to assume that a draft BOARD update will come along with the mock?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, far too late, we’re just hyper busy

Angelus Novus: I regards to your previous question about Hall, can you explain why his fastballs shape gives more margin for error? More cut/rise vs run/sink?

Eric A Longenhagen: Guys with vertical fastball shape typically generate more swing and miss in the zone. If you’re fastball is a sinker/tail type you’d better command it to the corners. Sink/tail movement runs in line with the barrel of the bat. It’s part of why we’re lower on Sixto at this site (in addition to all the injuries)

Eric A Longenhagen: give me a few secs to peek at the extended schedule for today to make sure i do’nt need to run out of the houes right this second…

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, let’s rapid fire a few more…

Mookie the Wookie: Hi Eric, you remarked a few weeks ago that increasing the velo for new draftees has become somewhat trivial for some teams to do. Is there any evidence to suggest that doing so might negatively effect the shape or spin of a pitch? Follow up, how likely is it that this increased velo corresponds to the usage of foreign substances in pro ball? Love your work. Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oooh, well, especially at the big college programs I thikn pitchers are already using foreign substances. Jack Leiter’s thumb is feeling in his belt area between most pitches. I also think it’s more likely now that pitchers are targeted in the draft *because* they have the spin/shape traits you mentioned and teams do what they can to lean into those. Also remember the substances are about increasing spin not velo.

Billy G: What’s up with Luzardo? Do we just need to give him more time?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw him vs Arizona early in the year and his stuff looked pretty generic. Someone said, “yeah he’s like 5 years out from TJ now, that’s the range when there can be issues again” but I don’t know if that’s true

Tyler: I have heard about Leiter’s elite fastball but hear conflicting things about his secondaries (curve and slider). What’s is your current assessment of Leiter’s secondaries?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re okay, not elite. Like fully-operational Rocker’s slider is better than either of Leiter’s breakers and it isn’t close.

Billy G: Favorite novels?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m more of a non-fiction guy.

grover: Is Michael McGreevy a 1st round lock?

Eric A Longenhagen: No way, the guy I saw last weekend was not a 1st rounder

Chris: What’s the ceiling for schwellenbach in the draft? Could he go top 15?

Eric A Longenhagen: super rich for me

grover: Any sleeper arms in Oakland’s system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Daniel Palencia, Jorge Juan

Romorr: I’ve been waiting on a cell bump on Rom since 2019.  Saw him listed as 6’2, 170(doubt), at what point do you believe the velo, 88-92, is just who he is.  And I assume that would profile in that 5/6/7 range.

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he could still be a backend piece at those velos

Recca: I get that MLB wants to promote their players. They need to. But are you afraid that the hype being generated for guys like Rocker/Leiter might do more harm than good? The expectations from fans are insane right now

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure if it’s an MLB problem, an ESPN problem, or a problem with how our culture absorbs and interprets stuff like this. Probably all three in some form.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, you guys were awesome again this week. Stuff to look for next week: KG and I will have a mock, the Brewers and A’s lists will come out, updated top 100, updated draft rankings, and I’m writing about having seen Ohtani, deGrom, and Stroman in person within the last couple weeks.

Eric A Longenhagen: thanks for joining me today, have a great weekend