Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 1/31/25

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hello from Tempe, where the air is filled with the never-ending drone of leaf blowers.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna start chat off on a somewhat confrontational note.

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: There are (more this week than usual) lots of questions in my queue asking me to comment on other peoples’ work or opinions. Here are some examples:

12:03
Simpson: Why is Chandler Simpson (Tampa) not getting any love. The guy’s a 70 hitter with 80 speed—and he’s not on the top 100 anywhere. What am I missing about him?

12:03
Johnny: who are some prospects you are higher and lower on consensus in the bluejays system

12:04
Accudart: Dodger Ferris projections are quite varied…is his ceiling only sp3 or do you feel more .thanks

12:04
Bob: Your former colleague at ESPN noted that many teams and swing analysts don’t believe that Kristian Campbell’s swing will work in MLB and he isn’t a top 50 prospect. This has riled up some Sox fans! Have you heard some of that as well? Do you agree?

12:04
Eric: I know you haven’t published the Braves list, but among prospect writers, it looks like Luis Guanipa is a polarizing prospect as Kiley placed him at 140 overall(BA, MLB not nearly as high). Thoughts?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Please stop this.

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: You know why I want you to stop it, right? I know it’s the language of the internet to frame everything this way, but it puts me in an awful spot.

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: There are plenty of obvious reasons. I wasn’t around when whichever guy wrote up Guanipa or Simpson, idk why you think I was or would have an opinion about it.

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, now let’s get to some actual questions.

12:06
Grant: Thoughts on this upcoming draft, better or worse than 2024

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Better, the college arms and HS position player groups are much deeper.

12:07
Jacob Milham: Have the prospects traded away this off-season been lackluster? A lot of star power in the Crochet trade and the Marlins got some upside prospects, but none of the prospects moved seem to be better for it.

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: There definitely seems to be a suppressed market right now, based on what offers for Robert and Cease seem to be.

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I would have guessed at the start of the offseason that the trade market for hitters would have been stronger because there weren’t a ton of them available in free agency.

12:09
Mariners: Gioven that my team, the Mariners, have botched their off season, who should I be putting more faith in as a future All Star to replace the likes of Ryan Bliss, Jorge Polance, and Dylan Moore:

Cole Young or Colt Emerson?

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t necessarily agree they “botched” it, though I would have rather had Josh Rojas at his projected arb number than Polanco at 7 mil…

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Emerson has bigger offensive upside, Young (assuming he can actually get healthy) is more polished and the better defender.

12:10
Bencle Mens: Super bowl related question: Which Chiefs or Eagles player could have made it in MLB? AJ Brown? Mahomes?

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Brown was a real draft prospect, he’d have gotten $2 million or more. Mahomes IDK, his hands are incredible, you can see the hip/shoulder separation perhaps moreso than any other quarterback. I don’t think I’d bet against that guy doing anything.

12:13
mason morris: Here for Dback prospect information, is there a guy we should be watching this spring that could make the team

12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: You probably already know these guys, but I think Yilber Diaz and Adrian Del Castillo are both going to have a big 2025 impact…

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m really curious how Drey Jameson looks and what kind of role he’s ticketed for with so many other starters around.

12:15
doughboy: The Detroit Tigers have a logjam of fringy prospects vying for the back-end of their bullpen. Who do you project to be the best long term option for them: Montero, Madden, Gipson-Long, Manning, Hurter? Anyone else not listed?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: I still think Madden could start for an org with less depth. Gipson-Long had that impact long man look before he blew out. Hurter’s a pretty standard middle inning lefty.

12:16
Pirates Hurdles: Given the preponderance of guys striking out north of 25-30% in low minors has anyone done a recent study to see if success stories emerge or is this a death nail for toolsy no hit guys?

12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: You can ponchado a ton if your tools are like this: Elly De La Cruz – Stats – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

12:17
12:18
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: You have the Siri/Sano/Dalbec types where they have enough else going on to be big leaguers but not great ones.

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: How you value the Dalbec/Siri/Michael Taylor types is obviously more in line with less toolsy, but more stable hitters.

12:19
Bob: if you’re running the Pirates who’s on 2B – Nick Yorke, Nick Gonzalez or What?

12:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Gonzales looked a fair bit better last year when he was healthy, so I’d role with that. I think Yorke is a bizarre reverse splits guy who’ll be a right-on-right platoon bat. That guy can’t hit lefties, it’s freaking weird.

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Seriously, go look up his splits.

12:20
Punk in drublic: Any chance you will be able to complete all teams prospect lists by the middle of march?  They are a very valuable tool for my dynasty league draft but there are usually only about half completed by then.

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: If you appreciate their depth and the quality of the analysis and writing, then I’m sorry but no.

12:22
Refugee: Do you have a white whale prospect you wish put it all together but never did?

12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: Yadier Alvarez

12:22
Lord Thunder: Is the arrow up or down — or sideways — for Tommy Troy?Mostly horrible regular season, but better towards the end with a decent AFL.

12:22
Eric A Longenhagen: I have a utility grade on him now.

12:23
Brian Cashman: The Orioles’ stint as the top farm system in baseball seems to be official over. Do you believe in Elias & co’s ability to sustain a good-to-great system without consecutive years of Top 5 picks (and one legendary 2nd rd pick in Gunnar)? Are there signs that their international system is developing and/or they’re as good as turning late round gems into Guys as the Dodgers are? Aka should I be worried about the O’s beyond the next 4ish years of their core?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Orioles international stuff has been mixed-to-positive, it can take years before a new regime’s decisions in that space can even be made because often the previous one has made commitments that you kind to have to keep…

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: Their draft strategy has been interesting because it’s been all over the place in terms of player type. They’ve been happy to take toolsy strikeout machines like Fabian and Honeycutt, but also have been on the Griff O’Ferralls of the world who don’t K. It just looks like they’re targeting any kind of high-end skills and hoping to develop the rest.

12:27
Mikey: I say chex is better, but Tony says Frosted Flakes is better, what is your opinion and why?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: I like the way Frosted Flakes cut up the inside of my mouth.

12:28
TooDamnTall: Is it difficult to gauge pitch recognition in the lower leagues? I am thinking some hitters get bored waiting for low quality pitchers to hit the strike zone, and just swing at anything close knowing they can do damage against the low quality stuff.

12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: It is, the lack of command at lower levels means there are just way fewer strikes.

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: And you’re right, you can get guys who know they can just stand there and walk, and you get guys who are antsy and swing at stuff they know they shouldnt

12:31
Yuniesky Betancourt: Who is the biggest absolute tank in the minors and why is it Arturo Disla?

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: I think you nailed it and now you should Google “Desmond Watson”

12:32
James: Who do you think would best round out the A’s rotation after Severino, Springs, and Sears among Ginn, Bido, Basso, Estes, Spence, Harris, and Hoglund?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Bido and Ginn

12:33
Arnie B: Do you expect Brailer Guerrero to fit into the Top 100? I know you guys had a 50 FV on him in an update

12:34
Eric A Longenhagen: I do, best combo of present physicality and hitting ability during my FL trip last spring (non-Walker Jenkins edition)

12:34
Wade Miley: Any particular thoughts on the Nats signing Shinnosuke Ogasawara? Do you think he sticks in their rotation?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Command-oriented sixth starter type. On Washington that  probably means he holds down a backend spot and eats a ton of innings. I’ve been light on the command-driven NPB guys in the past, though.

12:36
The Llama Man: Has Joendry Vargas gone backwards in the last 12 months?

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: There was a weird period where he simply wasn’t playing for whatever reason. I don’t think he regressed so much as the new level overwhelmed him. His levers are so long, he was always a risky guy.

12:36
Dirt: I’m guessing Braxton Roxby would not have cracked your Giants list?

12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: I updated it, he’s on there. On The Board, anyway. Meg has to re-load the article itself, pretty sure she’ll get to that this weekend.

12:37
Yuni B: Which of the disappointing DSL debuts has you worried the most among Victor Hurtado, Adriel Radney, and Yandel Ricardo?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: Hurtado because polished offense was supposed to be part of his game. Radney we now know had a lingering back issue. Ricardo I was worried from the jump he wouldn’t hit.

12:38
Okra: Do you think Lawrence Butler has another gear?  Contact rate wasn’t too bad last year for a 23yo with great power.  Easy to dream on him still improving.  He’s exciting.  A’s offense could be sneaky good

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: I do, think he’s a great longshot MVP bet if you’re into that sort of thing. Who knows how Sac will play?

12:39
Justin: Probably a better question for Effectively Wild, but let’s say a player was a 0 WAR player while seeing an average amount of pitches per PA.   Let’s say he switched to leading the league in foul outs and significantly leading the league pitches per PA.   Off the top of your head, do you think that adds some sort of hidden WAR to this player?

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmmmmmmmm

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if I’d classify it as “WAR” that’s being added since what he’s doing has less of an impact on the actual baseball game, and more of an impact on the opponents stamina…

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: but if you wanted to quantify it maybe there’s some pitch degradation study you could do and then apply that “value” to hitters who grind out at-bats…

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: Not to mention the little cues your teammates pick up on as they watch you spoil pitches.

12:42
Justin: When you look at a guy like Justin Crawford, and you know that he’s not quite physically mature, how do you bake that into rankings/valuations?   Do you rank him based on what you think he’ll be if he does fill out and add strength?  do you rank him based on who he is now?  somewhere in between, based on probabilities of each?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m happy to project *strength* for any player who appears projectable. Projecting swing or mechanics overhauls? I’m not as comfy doing that.

12:44
John: You mentioned suppressed offers for Cease, you have any insight on what has been offered?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve heard some names from scouts who they believe interested teams have said, “no, you can’t have that guy.”

12:46
Bencle Mens: Speaking of hip-shoulder separation, I have been coaching high school throwing (shotput, discus) and it is natural to some and not to others. Seems like a simple concept to teach but it is not.

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: No doubt, I think it’s just an innate thing that some of us have and others don’t. I can’t bend, for instance.

12:46
FrankenGM: If you could Frankenstein a MLB GM, what would you do? Ex: the PD of Andrew Friedman, the trading big leaguers for prospects of Neander, the drafting of Elias?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Throw Gillick in the Lazarus Pit.

12:47
Jonathan: You mentioned Drey Jameson.  It seems like his delivery limits what could otherwise be a tantalizing profile.  Is there any kind of winding developmental path that ends up with a starting pitcher with average command of three plus pitches, or is the clay dry at this point?

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: I just think he’s a great athlete and a tough s.o.b., and the constant league-wide attrition at that position means it’s good to have as many dudes who can give you 5 innings as possible…

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: But also, yeah he or Yilber would probably be really nasty if they just ‘penned them right now.

12:49
Bencle Mens: If draft picks were more tradeable, akin to NFL draft picks, would trading up for college hitters be like trading up for quarterbacks?

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: Great question. I wonder if it’d be elite college pitchers. The combination of their readiness with contending teams’ needs…

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: Someone like Baltimore might deal a lot to go up and get Chase Burns, right/

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: My right Shift key is broken lol

12:51
tumtum: No idea whether others might agree, but aren’t metal bats in college a little silly?

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: It is, the one thing that I can sympathize with is the cost of breakable wooden bats racking up for your program and/or kids.

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: And having to travel with soooo many bats if everyone is using wood.

12:52
The sun: Are you a bucket hat guy?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: No, but women I’m attracted to seem to be into them for whatever reason. And fanny packs. How’d that happen? I’ve been wearing beanies lately because it’s winter and to keep my too-long hair out of my face and whatever I’m cooking.

12:55
Bounce backs?: Are there any prospects whose value dropped because they struggled in 2024 but you except (or hope) they will bounce back this season (eg Bryan Ramos)?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Ramos is an interesting example, if he can have something close to average contact and power but be a plus glove, that’ll play.

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: I kinda think things will click for Misiorowski in ’25

12:58
KC: Do you feel Colt Emerson has the potential to be the #1 overall prospect at this time next year?

12:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, good player though.

12:58
George: On the Shinnosuke Ogasawara question, how do you see the Nats rotation starting out, injuries aside? Seems like Gore, Herz, Irvin, Parker, Ogasawara, Williams, Soroka, and Cavalli all seem decently in the mix.

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Herz is a RP but otherwise think you have hem in a pretty good order, with Cade being the wild card. Where’s Jake Bennett at in his TJ recovery? He’s the sneaky one not on there.

12:59
Joe: What’s Enrique Bradfield’s ceiling?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Leadoff hitting everyday CF, Michael Bourn type guy

1:00
RANDY MOSS THE CANDY HOSS: Who do we like the most out of Juan Valera, Yoiker Fajahardo, and Dalvinson Reyes?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Saw Valera in late May and he was nasty but super wild. Reyes, dude, I like him a lot but only saw him in passing as I was working on Pirates stuff. It’s tough to get crazy with a guy who threw…

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: 17 innings last year tho

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yoiker I haven’t watched yet, he only exists on paper to me atm

1:04
Phil: You missed Dombrowski’s ability to get owners to spend $$laughing

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: So much of any of these jobs is social.

1:04
Pete Alonso & Jack Flaherty: Did being outspoken about Manfred juicing balls and union leadership changes hurt our market?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I don’t think so. Pete is tough because if anyone is going to age like Mo Vaughn, it’s that guy. He seems like a sweetheart of a guy, but I wouldn’t break the bank for him. Flaherty idk, what does that guy’s medical look like? If I’m him I just wait for guys to get hurt during ST and hope it creates more demand.

1:06
Scotty: If there were wood bats in college, do you think that would materially change scouts’ abilities to assess college hitters’ abilities to transition to the pros?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

1:07
Tacoby Bellsbury: How often do you have the time to step back and look at your work from a 10,000-foot process level? What have you been able to take from that?

1:09
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a reflective guy but often things I’m tweaking are very specific and not broad, sweeping changes to the overall thing. It’s very rare for me to actually take long periods of time mapping out a five or ten year plan for myself. Too many sports to watch.

1:09
Fred: My vibe on the Yankees is they are good at turning off the radar arms into real prospects but not so good at graduating them to be meaningful contributors.  Fair or unfair?

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Fair

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: They so often trade the guys who could be that

1:11
Kate: Did you get any looks at Edwin Arroyo in the AFL?  If so, did he look mostly intact post-injury?

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: He did, still think he’s more of a 45, but he’s a real SS who’s going to get to the power he has because of the way his swing is geared. Smaller lad, though.

1:11
Willie Mays Hays: When is prospect week scheduled for this year?

1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: It will start to week following the Super Bowl, Tuesday or Wednesday and spilling into the following week. Updated draft rankings, the top 100, some notes on next year’s top Int’l guys, my Picks to Click, and mucho mas.

1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: okay, I’ve run the light here. time to go. thanks for coming, see you next week.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

8 Comments
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drewsylvaniaMember since 2019
6 days ago

So you don’t want people to ask questions?

Seriously not understanding the pushback.

David KleinMember since 2024
6 days ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

He doesn’t want people to ask him about other people’s prospects lists and if he agrees or not.

drewsylvaniaMember since 2019
6 days ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

Always fun when you get downvoted for an honest lack of understanding.

raregokusMember since 2022
6 days ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

Usually helps to clarify that you’re actually confused and not being as sarcastic as you came across. It’s extremely easy to read your original comment as snarky.

drewsylvaniaMember since 2019
5 days ago
Reply to  raregokus

Except I did. I’m sorry people can’t read.

Rollie's MustacheMember since 2017
4 days ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

Eric never said he didn’t want people to ask questions. I wouldn’t be so quick to criticize the reading comprehension of others.

johndarc
5 days ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

I think his issue was the questions that are like “Kiley said this, why is he wrong?”

The ones that are more general, “X prospect isn’t that high on a lot of lists, why do you think that is”, I don’t see as the same thing. You’re not asking why a specific writer said a thing, you’re asking about the general league consensus.

It would be the same as if Eric was down on a guy that everybody else loved, and we wanted to know why. Eric has been high on guys others disliked and down on guys other people liked. It’s not that big a deal to ask why the opinions differ.