Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/17

Eric A Longenhagen: Is this thing on?

Eric A Longenhagen: So it is.

Eric A Longenhagen: In case you missed it, BA’s John Manuel is taking a job with the Twins. I wish him well.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, baseball stuff.

Sam: Anything new you’ve heard on the Atlanta investigation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just that it’s almost concluded, nothing else that isn’t out there publicly.

Ben: What’s your opinion on Alex Jackson behind the plate after seeing him in the AFL? Seems like everyone is saying he struggled behind the plate, and if you agree, is it fixable? I’d imagine it’s probably expected that a guy would struggle in his first year transitioning back to catcher.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah and Fall League catchers are particularly tough to evaluate because they’re here after a long season and catching an entirely new staff of pitchers. You take it with a grain of salt because catchers really get beat up during the year and the position requires a lot of energy to do competently, let alone well. And I think you’re right that these issues are compounded by it being Jackson’s first year back. But his catching has been, at best, of mixed quality in my looks so far.

Tommy N.: Have you seen Andres Munoz much in the AFL? Do you think he’ll be a fast riser through the minor leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, saw and wrote about him in the spring. He’s likely a pure reliever so yes, he has a chance to move quickly. As soon as his command comes, he could march through the system quickly because the stuff is already in place.

Charlie: What happens more often: a top 100 prospect busts or a prospect outside the top 100 becomes a ML regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are like 6,500 pro prospects in baseball at any given time, so it’s more likely one of the 6,400 of them not on an arbitrary top 100 list becomes a regular.

Logan: Is Max Fried showing the kind of stuff in Arizona that made him sound so exciting at the end of the Rome playoff run last year? The results certainly have been strong so far.

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is great — like 92-96 with a plus curveball and average changeup — but still needs to improve command which, at age 23, is still possible but perhaps not very likely. He did miss time recovering from TJ so maybe the command is coming later.

Logan: Has Austin Riley done anything in Arizona to enhance your opinion of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks more loose and fluid than he has in the past but hasn’t moved the needle all that much.

Waltharius: It seems as though power prospect Padres produce have tough time hitting with average (e.g. Renfroe, Grandal, Alonso, Gyorko, etc). Is there any prospect in the system with a blend of both hitting tool and a power tool? Am I optimistic to think that Naylor will be a 30+ HR with .260BA?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not a Naylor fan unless he finds a way to get to more of that power in games. He has huge raw but it doesn’t play in games due to approach and swing path. Tatis, I think, is the guy you want to follow.

Mac: The other day I posed a question to a local Cleveland sports reporter if we could get any kind of news on prospects in the AFL (didn’t really expect much, maybe a quick blurb update at some point). The response I got was “Go to Arizona” and “pitch a tent”. I’m in college right now so not exactly feasible. I would like to thank you on behalf of everyone here for pitching a tent for us so that we can get to know those prospects that not too many others are covering

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks. This probably isn’t news to you, but FanGraphs serves a very devoted niche of baseball fans and personnel. And my stuff, though less math-intensive, serves an even narrower, nerdier niche. Beat writers need to sell papers and generate clicks from your Uncle Craig, and stuff about whether or not Edmundo Sosa’s arm is strong enough for him to play SS is not going to do it.

Eric A Longenhagen: So I understand why others don’t see value in coming here but I’m glad to provide what I can and hope to keep getting better at it.

Dominik: Do you think the travel ball and showcase circuit is part of the reason why players are better at a young age due to earlier high level competition and training but sometimes also flame out earlier due to more wear and tear in the youth?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, actually. I think some pitchers do throw too much during the summer, especially.

ohioastrosfan: Astros farm seems to be Tucker + Whitley then a large drop off. Who is the next best prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s Alvarez

Kris in Seattle: Outside of the Mesa Solar Sox, how many Astros prospects have you seen in person this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: None this year. Hurricanes squashed my FL instrux plans.

Luis Urias: Why don’t you like me much? I am a hitting machine.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like you, everyone I talk to likes you. Here’s my question: How much hitting does a hit-first 2B have to do if he doesn’t have power?

Waltharius: I saw Adrian Morejon first hand in the on deck game; 94-96mph FB, good command, changeups with sink, curveball with depth. He looked very well rounded prospect. Does he have a potential to be a top of the rotation starter in your eyes?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, that’s him. Yeah, I think he has an outside shot to be a #2. More likely a #3, which is great.

HumHum: Is the ceiling on Keston Hiura a Howie Kendrick with less pop?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has more power than Kendrick.

JGM: The Astros have prospects Michael Feliz, Francis Martes and now Forrest Whitley.  In the RP core now is Joe Musgrove and Chris Devinski.  Will any of these SPs become a #1 SP or possibly a strong #2 SP?  Thank you kindly!

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Whitley has front-end talent and the best strike-throwing ability of the big-stuff guys you mentioned. Martes is the one who is tough to nail down. I was never high on Musgrove but he’s probably a #4. The rest are relievers.

Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: Is the Winker/McKinney profile quickly becoming an anachronism? Seems like skilled hitter corner outfielder who doesn’t have plus power or plus defense/can’t play center is just a guy that a team is looking to replace

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s becoming a player bucket with negative connotations but some of those guys are going to hit enough that you don’t care that they don’t have prototypical power for the position. Like John Olerud was technically a hit-first 1B without huge raw power. I know those are exceptions and they’re likely to increase in rarity given the way the hitting climate is shifting, but I still need to be on the lookout for freaks and exceptions.

James: Does Meija’s relatively low walk rate worry you once he reaches the big leagues full time for the Indians or whoever might trade for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: A little bit as we’ve seen guys who have enough talent to get by swinging at everything in the minors (because they’re talented enough to hit everything) struggle in the Majors because it becomes too hard. I think everything is in place for Mejia to be really good and I’m all-in on him as a prospect, but he’s not without this risk.

Jim Lahey: Thoughts on the starts of Justus Sheffield and Albert Abreu?

Eric A Longenhagen: Didn’t see Abreu (I’m still turning over rocks at instructional league until Wednesday) but Sheffield was freaking electric.

Darius: What is Mitch Keller’s upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: #2

Jeb: Who are some Pirate prospects who could really make a leap within the next year or so?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Taylor Hearn, Cole Tucker, Luis Escobar and still have an eye on Max Kranick

Mason: How interesting in Eric Filia? Pretty good 2017, strong start to AZL. Is this someone that can rise quickly in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, he’s interesting. I saw him at UCLA and liked him, thought he could really hit (he squared up Alec Hansen multiple times and was the only Bruin who could) but obviously it’s a tough defensive profile. He’s 25, but the fact that we’re talking about a 20th(I think?) rounder having a chance means Seattle did a good thing here by taking a shot on him.

Steve: Have you seen any Royals players in Surprise or the AZL? Thinking like Vallot, Matias, Pratto, & Cancel.

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re my last instructs club. Ask me next week.

weird question guy : When you say a player could be a star, versus an above average regular, versus regular, what percentage of players are “Stars” or “above average regulars”? Is your model a fat middle of below/average/above with few stars and few scrubs?  Ditto for pitchers. Are there 30 number one pitchers and 60 2/3 starters?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-…

Eric A Longenhagen: You will find that helpful. Thanks for being the guy who periodically asks that question because it’s a good/important one.

JR: What can you tell us about LAD prospect Donovan Casey?  He had a great debut.  Why was he picked so late?  Do you know what his signing bonus was?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure off the top of my head what his bonus was. Saw him this spring in RF and on the mound. Good body, solid average athlete, plus arm in RF. I’d have to double check my notes to see how hard he threw on the mound but I wanna say he was 90-93? Hold on….

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, sorry. I’ve since needed to purchase a new notebook. Okay, Donovan Casey (who was a late round pick out of Boston College, btw)

Eric A Longenhagen: I have ‘above average bat speed, glimpses of barrel control, needs mechanical overhaul, good frame, plus arm’

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: So yeah I think he’s interesting. The Dodgers have had recent success turning toolsy, late-blooming OFs into prospects.

Waltharius: Will Fangraph update the farm system report this winter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, once I’m done with my HBT annual piece (today or tomorrow) I’ll get working on those.

Anthony: How do scouts go about evaluating pitchability and mound presence? What is it that you look for in a young pitcher to evaluate “feel for pitching?”

Eric A Longenhagen: The recipe for ‘feel’ is part command, part sequencing, making pitches move in a way that is effective. Especially on the backfields, it’s easy to see and hear when a pitcher is struggling to deal with adversity, or see that he’s overthrowing to try to get out of a jam.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know some of those terms seems antiquated or as if they’re just projections of the scout and I also think sometimes we lean too heavily on tropes like that which, true as they might be, are vague and not at all informative. But I do think stuff like that is real and visible.

Alex: Is Fangraphs going to be doing chats all offseason (except for scheduled writer vacations)? If so that’s awesome, and I want to say I appreciate your work.

Eric A Longenhagen: I know I’ll be here, at least.

Kingsley: What do you think is the ceiling for Nate Pearson what to acheive that, what do he need to do?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have him projected as a reliever and think he could be a dominant one. The things he’d have to do to start are the things one would probably assume. Command, third pitch.

James: Who is the best Padres prospect that nobody talks about?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jordy Barley is as tooled up as any of their young Latin American position players

Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: A ton of the super young Latin kids being quickly pushed quickly through the lower levels (Tatis, Florial, etc) have glaring strikeout totals. At what point is being pushed quickly a detriment to long term development?

Eric A Longenhagen: If something happens to the offensive environment that suddenly places more emphasis on contact, I could see guys who were forgiven, as prospects, for not making contact getting screwed. But for now I just think what those two have done at their age is pretty impressive.

Fred: As a general matter, are you optimistic about guys like Matt Thaiss (good contact skill, reasonably strong) developing game power if the other parts of their game are coming along?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a good question and like all good questions the answer is, “It depends.” You have to ask yourself that question about all hit-first prospects. If a player is physically projectable and might grow into more power, that’s something I’m into. Or if you think he’s going to hit enough that a lack of power doesn’t matter (like Olerud) then that’s another possible path for the player.

Eric A Longenhagen: And then, of course, right now a player might just arrive in the big leagues and suddenly have power because of the baseball itself.

Eric A Longenhagen: Which is really screwing with my power-grading spider senses.

JR: Is Heath Fillmyer still a 45 prospect for you?  Any changes in his outlook after his 2017 season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’m still on him as a #4/5.

Kristen: Rangers have any TORP-ceiling SP prospects at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps not anyone with that sort of ceiling, though I do think Ragans is really good and there’s low-level pitching depth in guys like Jean Casanova, Tyler Phillips, etc., who could all turn into mid to back of the rotation guys.

Kendall: Is my swing & miss issue that big of a concern? How much would it preven me from making to the show?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was actually really great to start talking to pro scouts who were getting there first look at Jeren Kendall, who was quite polarizing as a college prospect. Tools like Kendall’s (he’s a 70 runner with plus bat speed) aren’t seen in college ball very often but pro scouts see them a bit more often and I wondered if that would color their opinions. The scouts I’ve talked to who have seen him this fall don’t like the swing and think it needs tweaking. I’ve seen him take uncomfortable at-bats. But similar things were said about George Springer when he was coming out of UConn so…

Starter or Relievers: Max Fried and Sandy Alcantara. Starters or relievers for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have both projected as starters but am less confident about Fried

Shuck Bowalter: Reports out of the AZFL have Sheffield really impressing the scouts, some saying the stuff looks top of the rotation. What would it take for you to agree (assuming you don’t already)?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks awesome and the stuff is up above compared to what it was this summer. I think Keith had him 91-94 this year? He’s typically been 92-94, t95 for me with fringe command, and above average slider (since he scrapped the curve) and a 40 changeup and command. Out here’s he’s been 94+ t97 with a legit plus slider and hard upper-80s changeup that has also missed some bats.

Pablo: What caused Corey Ray’s poor showing this year? What are you looking for from him in the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still not sure. He’s very stationary at the plate, no stride. I’d like to see him more active in the box. This is an explosive guy, why not let him be explosive? He’s been fine in CF here in my looks but reports from the season were mixed. His ball/strike recognition is good, the bat speed is fine, he’s running fine. I still think he’s going to be good. He is visibly frustrated, though.

Josh: Do you think Otani will sign before opening day next year? If so what kind of impact could he have?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s less likely than has been reported. He’s a freak. Elite build, athleticism, stuff.

Charlie: With the game becoming more reliant on elite relievers are pitching prospects safer now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Unless changes in pitchers usage also make relievers less volatile, I’ll say no.

john lackey: Who are your favorites to make a splash in the Arizona Fall League?

Eric A Longenhagen: Munoz would have been the guy who hasn’t gotten much ink who I would have said will blow up this AFL. Sounds like he already has a little bit.

Dylan R: How do you feel about Sheldon Neuse? I know his BABIP was astronomical with the A’s but it was in almost 200 PAs

Eric A Longenhagen: I dig him. 55 raw, plus arm, very patient, baseball rat. He’s limited to 3B and is going to strike out but I think there’s enough other stuff going on that he’s got a shot to be an everyday player.

nb: Eric – Looking forward to visiting AZ in a few weeks for FPAZ.  I  know they’ve only been playing for a week, but how do the Brewers who had rough years at Carolina (Like Erceg) look so far?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m starting to become concerned about how aggressive Erceg is at the plate but wasn’t all that discouraged by his season. Has power, a potential plus glove and elite arm strength. Lots to like.

Tumbler, Whiskey: Yoan Lopez is a big league reliever. True or false?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm. False.

Eric A Longenhagen: Has the stuff for it, certainly.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Where would you bat in the FG company slow pitch softball league?

Eric A Longenhagen: Leadoff. CF.

R: Should I be worried about the yankees losing Denbo? How much impact did he actually have on development? Or was it just good timing with Judge, Sanchez etc coming through the system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yankees player dev has maybe been the best department in baseball for the last half decade. Just look at Rule 5 and minor league rule 5 results. They have too many arms.

Joe – Toronto: Is it realistic that any of the Blue Jays pitching prospects (Harris, Zeuch, Pearson, Green, Reid-Foley, Borucki, etc..) become better than a #4 or #5 level starter (or even that)

Eric A Longenhagen: I think those are most of their reasonably optimistic outcomes. SRF and Pearson have the best stuff of that group (Greene has a 70 fastball but I’ve been underwhelmed by the quality of his secondaries) but need to develop in other areas to separate themselves.

RSO: Billy McKinney had somewhat of a bounce-back year after falling from grace in 2016. Any chance he becomes an ML regular eventually?

Sean: Is the new Oscar Mercado real or fluke season ?

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t really been a McKinney fan for a while now, but I can’t just ignore what he did at Scranton and don’t have to tell you that the ball and Yankee stadium might be enough to cure his ills entirely, even if he’s the same guy I’ve been doubting for years.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mercado I saw mid-year and though he looked like a bench OF but some think there’s more there

David: Who is the Twins’ best SS prospect: Polanco, Gordon, Lewis, Javier, other?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gordon, but only because I think Lewis is a CF

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, a few more minutes and then I must depart.

Bobert: What do you think about Yadier Alvarez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still like him but was somewhat disappointed by his 2017.

William : Thoughts on Shed Long going forward ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chance to be an avg regular. Still improving at 2B, could be a 40 doubles guy who runs well and plays up the middle.

Steve: Long-in-namen, where do you stand on NL vs AL rules my dude

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m anti-DH.

Eric A Longenhagen: Vehemently.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Who is your favorite character in Cheers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve seen maybe two episodes of Cheers.

Eric A Longenhagen: How can it not be Shelley Long, though?

E: How can I convince my wife to go to spring training with me? (we live in Cleveland)

Eric A Longenhagen: When I was like 11, I wanted a dog. I asked for a snake. I got a dog. Ask to go to the running with the bulls, spring training will seem like a vacation. Other than that, the food here is underrated? I’d come for Fall League, E. Cheaper, less traffic, less people, better baseball than what I see on ST backfields.

YKnotDisco?!: How does bat speed get measured? Barrel control? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just eyeball both of those. It’s not easy, nor am I always right, but I feel pretty good about it. Teams are starting to measure bat speed with Blast Motion technology and the like but I don’t have access to that stuff.

Dooduh: Any answer not Coach is not acceptable.

Eric A Longenhagen: See I don’t know who that is. Isn’t that another show? I was born in ’88, I can tell you everything about Batman The Animated Series and the first 150 Pokemon but not Cheers.

Llewelyn: I know some other writers have talked about this but how do you feel about the idea that every players true ceiling is the best player in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like it’s a cop out that is technically correct.

Eric A Longenhagen: And that’s gonna do it for me today! Thank you all for coming and see you next week!