Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/21/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy from cloudy Tempe, where we skipped the 70s and went straight to winter. Thanks for coming to another prospect chat. Your boy is sick with something flu-like and had to cancel plans with the neighbors for tonight so I’m just banging away at prospect lists and watching the Robert Altman stuff that will leave Criterion at the end of the month. Nice long chat today, let’s see if I can answer questions as fast as you ask them….

Guards! Guards!: Any update on that oft injured Guardians pitching prospect that everyone keeps asking you about? I, of course, mean Justin Campbell.

Eric A Longenhagen: I texted a few people about this after folks asked just before Halloween and was told a scap strain and wrist stuff prevented him from throwing. I was told by a different source he threw some live bp at the end of September, but wasn’t told how he looked.

Jim: What do you need to see to become a Henry Bolte believer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’m wondering to what degree are you asking me to believe? I think his tools will allow him to be a useful extra outfielder. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a regular. Too late on fastballs, too much whiffing overall. I’d ask you to reflect on what you thought about Colby Thomas twelve months ago and whether you thought I was light on him, too.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What are your thoughts on the Rodriguez-Ward trade?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s too early in the offseason to ask, “what the hell are the Orioles doing?”, their roster seems so imbalanced to be but they have months to figure that out. In general I think trading injured pitching for a good hitter is good process, and that’s basically what they did, though of course Ward has just the one year of team control left. I can see why the Angels might want to control Grayson for the next four years, but I also have a hard time believing he’ll be able to stay healthy for the majority of that time.

Joe: Payton Eeles traded today…plausible utility infielder in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not comfortable with him playing SS enough to call him an on-roster utility piece, more of a fringe 40-man type. He’ll be nice depth without occupying a 40-man roster spot for the next couple of years.

Ksk315: What was the consensus around the Fall League on the check swing challenge system?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is going to be a slightly longer answer, and I want to get some video up so you can see it, give me like 30 seconds to do that because it’s sitting on my phone…

Eric A Longenhagen: Check swing challenge afl 2025

Eric A Longenhagen: So basically, as you can probably tell from the video, the line that they have been using to determine whether or not this is a swing is beyond what any of us have come to understand as a completed swing when a check swing is appealed to a base umpire…

Eric A Longenhagen: The base umpires were still calling check swings based on how all of us have come to understand them, which i would define as: When the barrel passes the knob of the bat…

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: Here i drew a line that I think we’d all say, were you or I the base umpire, would constitute a swing….

Eric A Longenhagen: But of course the hitters quickly learned what the line for the challenge system was (which I would call, “parallel with the baseline”) and they’d frequently challenge knowing they probably didn’t go *that* far. Eventually hitters got too bold and were challenging too many of these (like the one you see above)…

Eric A Longenhagen: This bird’s eye view is pretty nifty, it reminds me of MVP 05’s check swing overhead view. There are definitely hitters for whom it’ll be less useful (think the guys with super vertical bat paths) but I think the way I have the rule basically written above (when the barrel passes the knob) still applies to those guys

Eric A Longenhagen: In summation: the rule and line as it’s currently written can’t be what they take live to MLB games, the line should be perpendicular to the imaginary line that extends from the center of the rubber to the center of the plate

Eric A Longenhagen: and this is two years in a row they ran out the above line/rule without tweaking. Granted the ABS folks (there were soooo many trainees here this Fall, the press boxes were packed) are focused on the ball/strike challenge system, which is going to be awesome, and it’s fine this took a redheaded stepchild’s back seat to that, but I’d advise they tweak this one before it goes live

Dan S.: Fair to see Okamoto as a .250/.330/.430 guy, like 115-120 wRC+? Or is that too high? And how much variance are we talking? Big bust risk, or safe enough floor?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re in the right ballpark. Any time a hitter comes over from NPB there’s risk of complete failure, we just don’t know how they’ll hit in the MLB stuff environment, but at least in 2025 Okamoto performed well against harder fastballs (MLB Trade Rumors pretty badly misrepresented our thoughts on that recently)…

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s going to hit enough to be a top 20 1B over here for the next three years or so. Here are his splits against velo:

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a direct quote from the report: or all NPB hitters, exposure to premium velocity comes in a small sample on a year-to-year basis. That’s especially true for Okamoto, who performed dramatically better than before against 94-plus mph in 2025, but in only half a season’s playing time. He loads his hands out from his body and his swing path has some length to it. MLB pitchers will offer more frequent and viable attempts to tie up his hands with velocity up and in, but this year Okamoto added turning and burning on 95-plus from the likes of Trevor Bauer and Peter Lambert to a home run highlight reel previously heavy on him yanking hanging breaking balls. Okamoto’s splits against hard fastballs are favorable. He has an 84% contact rate against all pitches 94 mph and above combined the last three seasons, compared to a 78% contact rate overall. 
Because Okamoto is so geared to pull, he does make some concessions against well-located secondary pitches away from him, though none of his splits against any parti

JR: Any new information on Jose Corniell from your looks in the AFL? Can he help the Rangers rotation in 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought he looked really good until his last start when his stuff was down like three ticks and he left with the trainer.

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought he’d quickly slot into the back of their rotation next year but now I have to figure out how hurt he was before we publish the Rangers list.

Aldo Rayne: Have you heard anything about Miguel Rodriguez‘ status with the Orioles?  He never came back after the horrible accident, but Palacios did, and I wonder if Rodriguez was injured or if there’s a legal problem, or what

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve got nothing on this but will work on it between now and next chat

Avery: On EW a couple weeks ago and in some write-ups you group Justin Wrobleski in with depth guys like Ben Casparius and Landon Knack as opposed to being a reliable starting option. Why don’t you see him as a ML starting option?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he looked good enough at the very end of the postseason for me to backtrack on that one.

Matt: Does Ryan Johnson still project as a MIRP for you? Or did he show enough in High-A that he can start?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still not sure he has enough of a way to deal with lefties to project as a starter for me.

Eric A Longenhagen: A ball lefties just hit .280/.325/.475 against him, per Synergy. His changeup is occasionally good, maybe it’ll keep improving. There also aren’t any starters whose deliveries look like that…

Eric A Longenhagen: RP for me

Julian: How much stock do you put into Gage Jump and Jamie Arnold‘s ability to improve the A’s rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jump sooner than Arnold unless the A’s are in the postseason mix and feel motivated to push Arnold aggressively toward the very end of the year. I like both guys, think we could see Jump by the middle of the season.

Ksk315: I’ve seen a few games with the ABS and the umpires with deny a challenge or in one case call for a challenge that the player denied asking for. What are the rules for challenges? This can’t happen when it starts in MLB next year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes the guys pull a Chris Webber and forget their team is out of challenges. Or they challenge at the pace that Mark Wegner calls a strike and the umpire considers it too slow and too late for them to challenge. Sometimes hitters mannerisms are to touch the top of their helmet between pitches and in one case I saw this mistaken for a challenge.

Eric A Longenhagen: jj wrote a good thing 11 Things To Know About MLB’s New ABS Challenge System For 2026

Telemachus: Off the top of your head, which teams have the top 3 farm systems right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Uhhh I like the Dodgers, Orioles, Cardinals, maybe the Mets are in there

JR: Who are some of your top candidates to be picked in the Rule 5?

Eric A Longenhagen: Facundo it

Skip: Should Minnesota put Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, and Kaelen Culpepper into their lineup?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rodriguez should get reps asap, the others can bbq a bit longer

JR: Did you get any looks at Brennan Davis last season?  Is there any hope still?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did not see him. Hit well enough in a small sample that he deserves a look when we do Yankees, but I think the realistic + optimistic outcome here is he gets a cup of coffee.

Ozzie: What can we expect from River Ryan next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just don’t know, saw him throw a bullpen in the Fall and I didn’t think he looked in great shape. Long time between then and ’26, though.

Rangers fan: Do you know why Kumar pitched one start after being sent down in August then didn’t pitch for a month without any reported injury?? I’m assuming they had him working on something specific but do you know what it was??

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. Possible it was just his innings count? 64 IP by far the most he’s thrown since 2021.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll add it to my Pablo Torre cosplay to-do list.

James: Are there any surprises for you among “prospects” left unprotected (so far) by their teams heading into the Rule V draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. I think teams have become bolder and bolder with who they leave unprotected and I think the more teams behave that way the less and less likely it is that their unprotected players get picked. I think teams have noticed eachother doing it and that it’s augmented their behavior. I’m not really surprised when anyone is left off because it’s so hard for any of these guys to stick.

Eric A Longenhagen: I was more surprised that, say, Shane Smith developed in a way the Brewers hadn’t gotten him to than I was surprised he was left unprotected. You know what I mean?

Guest: Thoughts on Hagen Smith?  AFL All star team, but kinda pedestrian stats through 2 years in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still dig it, definitely has big relief risk but I think we’re talking about a closer if he ends up there, so a good prospect.

Kevin: This is maybe a big picture, long-term question, but do you think a salary cap in MLB would push more young internationals to soccer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really. Good question, though. It’s worth it for MLB to be thinking about this kind of stuff but I think what sport kids choose to play is more cultural than it is purely aligned with their economic incentives.

Bob: What’s something you’ve learned in the past year that you think will have a big impact in the next round of team lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Aside from more nuanced and mature understanding of my mortality? Probably visual identification of some of the principles arising from the public bat tracking stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like writing up Andrew Fischer changes with the bat angle stuff in mind

Eric A Longenhagen: Because the language around it becomes more culturally uniform as it pervades online discourse

JR: The Blue Jays have a lot of improved pitchers in their system, but only protected Tiedeman from the Rule 5 draft.  Is there anyone that you were surprised wasn’t protected?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really, I thought maybe Yondrei Rojas would get protected but he struggled during my AFL looks and if I were scouting for a team I wouldn’t recommend off that AFL look that we take him.

Guest: Not an under the radar guy, but the discourse around Painter at least in Phillies circles is very exhausting. I tend to fall on the end of “young guy who had to improve command already is now working back from TJ” vs “he’s a bust”. Not saying its not frustrating, but do you feel similarly? I do think the issues with specific pitches is a little anxiety inducing

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote a metric ton about Painter at the end of the year here: 2025 End-of-Season Top 100 Prospects Update | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: In short: his arm angle changed throughout the year. The Phillies are aware of it. It strikes me as more of a young pitcher’s struggles coming off TJ and pitching against grown men in Triple-A, than the trajectory of a sudden bust. “discourse” is a generous way of describing what you’re probably reading

Rangers fan: Did Devin Fitz-Gerald show enough to get top 100 consideration, or is he a guy that’s gonna excel at lower levels but has warning signs of struggles ahead?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him but he’s not so super duper talented as to be in my top 100 mix when he’s still so low in the minors

Guest: Emiliano Teodo – a starter or a reliever, provided he can stay healthy?

Eric A Longenhagen: RP only

Scotty: Joey Oakie or Johnny King?

Eric A Longenhagen: King, but Oakie was throwing way harder at the end of the year than atthe beginning.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like way, way harder

Warren: What do you think of Charlie Condon at this point, after he led the Fall League in singles?  Roldy Brito outplayed Ethan Holliday and is slightly younger; could he be the Rockies best prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Condon has real juice but I don’t think he has great feel to hit. I’m still pretty skeptical. Brito is a nice prospect but I don’t see him as any less risky than Ethan, whose power is on a totally different level.

Jacob from Earth: Are there any visual cues you look for to better understand if a prospect is being choosy vs. passive?  Maybe another way to ask this: when does called strike % become a problem for prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can learn some stuff through watching the quality of a guy’s takes, from how early in ball flight he seems to properly identify ball or strike…

Eric A Longenhagen: but mostly I’m looking at data to do what you’re describing. I’m looking at the gap between a hitter’s overall chase, and what it looks like with two strikes. I’m looking at how often they swing versus pitches down the middle compared to the big league norm, i’m looking at chase splits against offspeed stuff

Eric A Longenhagen: Some guys just stand there.

Tom: What % of 50 grade prospects pan out to be average regulars, and what % turn out to bevery good to elite?

Eric A Longenhagen: The bust rate for 50 FV prospects is pretty high, like 50%. By virtue of the definition of “elite” only one or two turn into that kind of player.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like Judge was a 50 FV prospect who (from a time when I was reading comments) some people didn’t think belonged on the list at all because of all the K’s.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s elite now.

Rangers fan: How did Murakamis defense look this past year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Below average but not intolerable. There are guys about as good as Murakami who play big league 3B regularly but you’re gonna live with some plays a good 3B makes that he won’t.

sodo mojo: Does Michael Arroyo have enough arm strength to play 4rd?

Eric A Longenhagen: He may not have the hands to play the infield at all.

Eric A Longenhagen: (don’t sweat typos like this btw, we all know what mojo meant)

Guest: Max Anderson just continues to hit everywhere he plays. How has the past year impacted his projections? Is he now being viewed as a legitimate everyday player? Or are there still holes that MLB pitching will exploit?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dig him more than a year ago, more on time to pull. Still chases too much and I think he’s an outfielder, but he has barrel feel and real power.

Guest: Do you have any insights or heard any data on Kevin McGonigle’s average/max exit velocities? I know there was a report of a foul 118mph ball at the AFL but I’m highly skeptical that he has that much raw power. I would guess 112-113 would be his max and 90-91 his average.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah he supposedly hit a foul ball really hard, he turned on it so much that you can’t in good conscience say it’s a repeatable skill in fair territory. Here are KMac’s power numbers from the season:

Eric A Longenhagen: 113.3 max, 113.3 airborne max, 47% hard hit rate, 105 EV90. Those are plus, above average, and average, respectively.

Eric A Longenhagen: On a big league scale.

Wade Boggs: Turducken or Deep Fried Turkey??  I’ll take a bucket of fried chicken over both any day of the week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Small wet-brined turkey and a second, auxillary meat of some kind, like a ham or maybe tamales or something

Adam: Dylan Lesko has no command and it seems there is little hope of him gaining it.

Are you aware of any player who has had similar command issues and been able to overcome them to actually reach the Majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tyler Matzek

Eric A Longenhagen: Daniel Bard

Sir Nerdlington: With the NCAA continuing to lose court cases and shoot themselves in the <redacted>, do you think we see changes to the draft pool in the next CBA to compete with D1 money or is this all working perfectly to transfer costs onto big 4 programs?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the view of MLB I think it’s the latter. I think we’ll see yet another affiliate eliminated in the next CBA, more development will occur at the Complexes (good for me as long as I live here, bad for baseball) and an attempt will be made to outsource development more to college programs. We may even end up with a one and done rule like the NBA instituted, or so I’ve heard from people in the game.

Phil: Last year there were reports of frustration among GMs that Breslow was overvaluing his prospects. Do you think that is generally true of him, or just a mismatch on specific guys? I know there are guys in the system that could be traded for, say, Joe Ryan–my question is, are there guys that Breslow is willing to trade who could be traded for Ryan?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think teams who take a hyper-analytical approach tend to hug their prospects a little too much, and Boston likely fits that bill. The padres are the other extreme.

2022 draft: Think any of the first round hitters get taken in the Rule 5 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: A scout sent me a funny tweet from some guy who couldn’t believe so many early 2022 first rounders were left unprotected. Any hitter taken in the rule 5 would have to fit a very specific need for a team to take them, I guess if someone needs a corner platoon outfielder maybe Cross is on the table? Otherwise, these guys have all been pretty bad.

Scott: What are your thoughts on Brayden Taylor’s struggles? And the likelihood that he can improve enough as a hitter to become a decent Big Leaguer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him about the same as I always have: plus glove 2B/3B, limited raw power but decent playable pop because of how his swing works, good athlete, still projectable and pretty young for a recent college draft. 45

Chase: Hey Eric, I’ve thought recently about the possibility of seeing any big league scouting pieces on Fangraphs. Is that something you guys have ever entertained? When a player graduates and plays in the majors for a few years, it tends to be just about looking at their data and trying to paint a picture using the data, but players change physically, gain skills over time. As an example, what would a periodic big league scouting report have said about Geraldo Perdomo over the last calendar year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess the How’s My Driving pieces act as a sort of big batch version of this. People have liked in the past when I’ve scouted big leaguers, so I could see doing it. In Perdomo’s report I’d highlight: Hey, this guy just continued to get bigger and stronger than I would have expected and he retained all of the baseball skills that made him a good prospect. We’ve also learned more about his personhood and the way he carries himself in the big league environment and not only can he handle it, but he thrives in it and became the emotional leader of a really talented team.

Okra: If a told told all their pitchers to throw 2-3mph slower on average, it would result ___% worse results and ____% fewer injuries?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I’m smart enough to answer that.

Mike: Between a tough statistical year and the injury, 2025 wasn’t a season to remember for Humberto Cruz. What were evaluators saying about him this year, and is he someone you’re still as intrigued by as you were last offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looked like a guy who I thought could be a top 100 prospect twelve months from now. My notes from May: 93-95 with big carry, commanded to the top of the zone, above-average slider, two bad changeups. Plus fb/sld/cmmd projection, mid-rotation ceiling, changeup could come based on the delivery and athleticism. Had surgery in august, see you in ’27

Guest: Tigers retained Gleyber…can Professor McGonigle hack it at SS?  That seems to be his path at this point

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me

Okra: Non-scouting, just there to enjoy the game.  What part of the stadium do you like to sit in?

Eric A Longenhagen: Same spot, I’m spoiled now.

EJ: What did you make of Enrique Bradfield Jr’s AFL performance?

Eric A Longenhagen: 45, great defender, speed impacts the game, contact is too light for him to be a top 15 player at his position.

jus24: I know it seems like Cam Collier has been around forever, and injuries seemed to sap his power this year. Do you think it’s better than 50/50 that he becomes a league average player? The Reds could really use some offense.

Eric A Longenhagen: I came away from AFL believing he’ll hit enough to be good despite him being a 1B only guy and having a weird-looking swing sometimes

Eric A Longenhagen: His hands just end up in the right spot most of the time.

Okra: Yamamoto’s stretching and flexibility training is well documented.  Does it just get a lot of attention b/c of who he is or are others not really doing this?  Seem all orgs should be interested in this.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think you can teach people to be *that* flexible. That’s freaky stuff.

BG: How handsome is the new prospect writer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, he’s a married guy, I wouldn’t dare.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are a lot of good questions left, I’m way over time but it isn’t like I have a game to go to, so let’s take some more…

Rookie of the Year: Who do you have as an early list of 3 names for each league to be your best bets for RoY?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’d have to show me the odds for me to determine where it’s best to put your money.

Ryan: Re: Snelling. Was the rebound this year enough to wipe out last year’s season? Are there still some concerns lingering?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in, he changed. Went to a third party facility, tweaked his delivery (rubber placement, stride direction) and I buy it plays.

doughboy: The Tigers protected Eduardo Valencia from the Rule 5 Draft. There’s never been much a write-up from any outlets on him. He had a strong finish to the season in Triple A. Any general thoughts on him as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did work on him for the 40 man crunch piece and considered him on the fringe. Big power numbers, I don’t really buy that he’ll hit, below average defender. Don’t think he’s a zero or anything, but definitely a third catcher for me.

T2: Yoshi Yamamoto does not lift weights but does workouts that focus on core strength and flexibility. Do you think this way of training can become popular in US? Or, there are not sufficient number of trainers who have the expertise?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t consider that guy a template for the entire player population, he’s an outlier.

Hacksaw Jim Duggan: Benny Montgomery, Vance Honeycutt, Elijah Green got me wondering….who’s the last top 10 “all the tools but can’t hit” prospect that…actually learned how to hit?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wood

Eric A Longenhagen:

Uncle Ronnie: do you have a favorite sleeper in the Os system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends how deep you want the sleeper to be. I think Luis De Leon is a windmill slam top 100 guy. The deep sleeper we love for goofy nerd reasons here is Twine Palmer.

My two cents: I am okay keeping the check swing line where it is, even if different from current practice; let’s give hitters more chances to hit, not fewer.

Eric A Longenhagen: Premise rejection: Nobody is advocating they get fewer chances to hit. Keeping the check swing calls as the entire world has come to understand them to be would mean giving hitters exactly as much leash as they’ve always had.

Turang Test: Is changing draft strategy or development program a better way to improve a farm system?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you know for sure you’re changing dev for the better, it’s definitely that.

Eric A Longenhagen: Because that has an impact on your whole system. Changing draft strategy has an impact on roughly 10 guys per year.

RAWagman: Eric – how and why were you wrong about Davis Schneider? Who is the next Davis Schneider?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just didn’t think he’d make enough contact to basically be a LF only guy. I likened him to Mike Brosseau. Maybe Luke Adams is the next Davis Schneider, though you definitely know that I can’t know who I’m going to be wrong about before I’m wrong about them, right?

Sam: Was having a debate with my buddy, what would McLean get if he was a FA right now and wanted the highest figure?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like 10 years 300?

Jasper: Also, thanks for your work. Always love hearing you on Effectively Wild.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks. It might be time to start a podcast.

Eric A Longenhagen: With that, I actually do have to go now. Hey! Prospect lists start next week. They’re *ehem* brewing, I’m not dodging questions about the order or guarding anything secret, but if you’ve red our site before you know they tend to roll out in clusters based on the spring training sites.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hosting Thanksgiving this year so your boy might be too busy to chat next friday with unbuckled pants.

Eric A Longenhagen: Look for an update on the socials

Eric A Longenhagen: bye bye