FanGraphs Power Rankings: Offseason 2026 (No. 1–17)

The hot stove has started to heat up, but it’s still pretty early in the offseason. On Tuesday, I took stock of how the early 2026 projections viewed the bottom 18 teams in baseball as they’re currently constructed. Today, I’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish with a .500 or better record in 2026. This exercise should give us a pretty good idea of which clubs would be ready to compete if the season started today, and which ones still have work to do this offseason.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Right now, our Depth Charts projections are powered entirely by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections will be folded in later in the offseason.

First up are the rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times when I take editorial liberties in grouping teams together — but generally, the order is consistent. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. The rankings for teams 18–30 have been updated with the handful of moves that occurred around baseball since Part I was published.

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Baseball hadn’t seen a repeat champion since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998–2000. With their second consecutive World Series title secured, the Dodgers are now in position to extend their dynasty — and the projections see them being in a strong position to attempt a three-peat. Still, as some of their struggles showed this year, winning another championship in 2026 won’t be easy. Injuries took a toll on the team throughout the year, and Mookie Betts limped through the worst season of his career, but the abundance of talent on this roster eventually won out in the playoffs. There are holes to fill — the outfield and bullpen are in dire need of attention — but the projections rightly see the Dodgers as the most talented team in baseball heading into next season even without making any additions.

Both of the teams in this tier suffered through hugely disappointing seasons, but the projections see brighter days ahead. It’s not hard to see why the Braves are so highly ranked. Their roster is still relatively young and filled with talent, and their issues in 2025 had more to do with injuries than severe underperformance. Thankfully, none of the injuries that derailed the team this season were significant enough to affect their 2026 projections. Ronald Acuña Jr. looks healthy after and as dangerous as ever, but the team needs bounce-back seasons from Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II to really prove they belong in this tier. The Braves addressed some of their smaller needs this week, re-signing Raisel Iglesias and swinging a trade for utilityman Mauricio Dubón, but it’s unclear whether they’ll be content with Dubón at shortstop and they could stand to shore up their rotation depth.

It took an absolutely atrocious final two months of the season for the Mets to miss out on the playoffs. The presence of Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor helps to provide a high floor, but there’s work to be done to avoid repeating the disappointment of 2025. It should begin with the pitching staff. Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat each provided some excitement down the stretch, but I doubt the team can plan on relying on that young trio for a full slate of 30 starts next year. David Peterson and Clay Holmes both looked like solid mid-rotation starters, but the team desperately needs a frontline ace to lead the staff. Also on the list of priorities is figuring out whether it’s worthwhile to re-sign Pete Alonso or Edwin Díaz, as the departure of those stars in free agency opened up gaping holes at first base and in the bullpen.

The Mariners got their offseason shopping started early, re-signing Josh Naylor to a five-year deal on Sunday. That checks off one of their biggest priorities this winter. They could still use at least one more big bat on the infield — either at second or third base — and at least a couple of strong arms to bolster the bullpen. The real reason they’re so highly ranked is because they still have Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez anchoring the lineup, and the starting pitching looks strong despite the hiccups they suffered through this year. The Mariners should also have a handful of top prospects pushing to make their debuts in 2026, led by Colt Emerson. Following the deepest run in the playoffs in franchise history, the Mariners are well positioned to sustain their success into the future.

With the team’s foundation resting on Aaron Judge’s shoulders, it’s no surprise to see the Yankees this high in the rankings. The rotation also looks like it’ll be a strength, with Max Fried leading the group, Gerrit Cole expected to return from Tommy John sometime during the season, and young phenom Cam Schlittler in line for a full season. But even with the reigning AL MVP, the lineup is not without its issues. Trent Grisham accepting his qualifying offer on Tuesday likely gives New York its answer in center field, but there’s still a major hole in the outfield with Cody Bellinger departing in free agency. And Anthony Volpe’s disappointing season and offseason shoulder surgery makes shortstop an open question.

After trading Rafael Devers in June, the Red Sox are officially in the Roman Anthony era, and they took the Yankees to the brink of elimination in the Wild Card round even with their star outfielder on the IL. The projections think the team is well positioned to compete in a tough AL East in 2026, though they still have work to do this winter. Alex Bregman opted out of the free agent deal he signed last offseason, which opens up a significant hole at third or first base, depending on how the team feels about the futures of Marcelo Mayer and Triston Casas. There’s also a need for a frontline starter to pair with Garrett Crochet. Trade rumors are swirling around Jarren Duran, and while I don’t think the Sox will move on from him, it does seem like they have one too many outfielders on their roster. As things currently stand, Gold Glove center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela is lined up to play out of position at second base with Duran covering center.

With Brandon Woodruff accepting his qualifying offer on Tuesday, the Brewers might have put themselves in an awkward position. Woodruff’s $22.025 million salary in 2026 would be a franchise record, and it might mean they’re more likely to trade Freddy Peralta, though team officials have said they see retaining Woodruff and potentially trading Peralta as independent decisions. If they opt to hang on to Peralta, the starting rotation looks like it will be a strength next year, with hopefully full seasons from both Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski. Thankfully, nearly the entire position player group from this season is returning next year, though it would be nice to add some power to the lineup.

Will Detroit decide to trade Tarik Skubal for a huge haul of prospects this offseason, or try and run it back with the best pitcher in baseball in 2026? That’s the central question for the Tigers, and everything they do this winter will be filtered through that lens. One of the secondary concerns was addressed on Tuesday when Gleyber Torres accepted his qualifying offer. That means the entire lineup from this season should carry over to next year. That’s both a good thing and a bad thing: It was a solid enough group this year, ranking 12th in the majors by wRC+, but there also aren’t a lot of high-ceiling stars in the lineup, which probably means we’ve already seen their run scoring ceiling. And without any holes to fill, it could be tricky to upgrade the lineup without bumping a solid role player to the bench.

Fresh off a heartbreaking World Series loss, the Blue Jays are well positioned to defend their AL East division crown. We’ll see if postseason heroes Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes can carry over their October success into sustained production in 2026, but the bigger questions lie at shortstop, where there’s a Bo Bichette-sized hole to fill, and in the rotation. Trey Yesavage was a revelation in the playoffs, but you’d have to expect the team to treat him very carefully next year. Shane Bieber opted to exercise his player option, which gives the Jays another frontline starter behind Kevin Gausman and Yesavage, but they could use another couple of arms to provide some depth for their pitching staff.

This feels like a critically important offseason for the Phillies. Not only are they trying to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, they’re also looking to overhaul their outfield and fill a spot or two in their starting rotation. The evolution of Cristopher Sánchez into one of the best pitchers in baseball provides the team with another ace while Zack Wheeler attempts to return from thoracic outlet syndrome. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner should continue to anchor the lineup, despite the weird trade rumors surrounding the first baseman. Still, the rosy projections given to the Braves and Mets mean Philadelphia will be hard pressed to catch up to its division rivals this offseason.

The Royals have a surprisingly strong rotation that’s at least eight or nine arms deep. Of course, that assumes that Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are healthy next year; both provide the high ceiling that could carry Kansas City to the top of the AL Central. What this team desperately needs is a functional outfield; that group was the weakest in the majors by a wide margin this year. Maybe Jac Caglianone will figure things out in 2026, but that would still leave two positions on the grass in need of an upgrade. The outfield free agent class isn’t very deep, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals deal from their rotation to address their biggest hole.

The Twins slotting in here is probably the biggest surprise of these rankings. They tore down a huge part of their roster over the summer and fired manager Rocco Baldelli at the end of the season. Despite that step back, the projections think Minnesota did well to hang on to a number of key contributors who should continue to serve as a solid core. That includes Joe Ryan and Pablo López in the rotation, and Byron Buxton in the lineup. There’s also a trio of young position players who could make an impact as soon as 2026. Luke Keaschall already showed what he was capable of in the big leagues this year, and he could be joined by Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez next year. Assuming the team doesn’t deal away Ryan, López, or Buxton this offseason, the Twins could be poised for a surprisingly quick rebound.

The Rangers are in a tricky position this offseason. They had nine pitchers from their American League-best pitching staff depart in free agency, and their two best starters are in the back half of their 30s. Jack Leiter managed to figure things out this year, but rebuilding the pitching staff will require more than a few moves. The offense demands some attention this offseason as well. The 2023 championship team led the AL in run scoring and wRC+, but Texas has been well below average ever since. The team will probably need to start thinking about how it’s going to shift away from the aging trio of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis García, and towards a younger core. Top prospect Sebastian Walcott is probably a couple of years away from making a real impact, which means 2026 is shaping up to be more of a transition year in Arlington.

Despite Kyle Tucker departing in free agency, the Cubs’ offense is still projected to be rather strong in 2026. Would re-signing Tucker or another big bat help? Of course, but it feels like this offseason is going to be focused on upgrading the pitching staff. The team surprisingly declined its three-year option for Shota Imanaga, though he turned around and accepted the qualifying offer anyway after declining his player option. It’s a win-win for the player and team; Imanaga gets a raise in 2026 and the Cubs avoid having to commit to the left-hander long-term after an up-and-down season in 2025. But even with Imanaga back in the fold, a healthy Justin Steele returning sometime next year, and a full season from rookie sensation Cade Horton, the Cubs need to add another starter or two to really feel good about their rotation next year.

The Orioles’ biggest issue during this window of contention has been their lack of high-end starting pitching. It was a surprise, then, to see Baltimore trade Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for Taylor Ward on Tuesday. Rodriguez has shown flashes of ace upside, but his injury history is lengthy and there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to stay healthy and provide high-quality innings in 2026. As such, you can sort of squint and understand why Baltimore opted for the steady production of Ward in the outfield. For his part, Ward should be a solid upgrade for the lineup, though he’s set to hit free agency after next year. That means 2026 is sort of a make-or-break season for the O’s, with frontline starting pitching still their most pressing need. Oh, and they’ll also need to figure out how to help Jackson Holliday take a step forward, determine if Adley Rutschman can bounce back after two down seasons, and integrate top prospect Samuel Basallo into the big league lineup.

The Rays have already addressed two big off-field concerns: The sale of the team was completed a few months ago, and Tropicana Field should be ready for play in 2026. With those things taken care of, the team can focus on addressing some of the major holes on the roster. It was nice to Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda break out this year, but the team still had a below-average offense in 2025. Shortstop and the outfield seem like the most glaring issues. The roster churn is already under way, as Tampa Bay made a handful of minor trades and designated outfielders Christopher Morel and Jake Fraley for assignment this week. On the pitching side, the team is hopeful that Shane McClanahan will be able to take the mound for the first time since 2023.

This year marked the end of an era in Houston, as the Astros missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. In so many ways, this roster feels like it’s in the middle of a big transition. Framber Valdez is gone, leaving Hunter Brown to lead a shallow rotation filled with injury concerns. Replacing Valdez and adding another starter or two has to be a top priority for the Astros this offseason. The lineup is a little more settled, but there are still plenty of concerns there, too. With Carlos Correa back in the fold at third base and Christian Walker manning first, where does Isaac Paredes fit? Will Walker bounce back after a rough first season in Houston? Can Yordan Alvarez stay healthy? Have we seen the first glimpses of Jose Altuve’s decline? With so much uncertainty surrounding the team, their potential win distribution feels wider than any other team looking to contend next year.