Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/6/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. COVID wrecked your boy’s thanksgiving but I’m good to go to winter meetings. My cat came home with dilated pupils last night and the other one couldn’t stop smelling him. I have no other life updates.

Mortons: Quick scouting report on Cobb Hightower? Do you think he’s a top 5 Padres prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hightower was an $850k or so HS signee from North Carolina. Good hitting hands, can really time and swuare a fasball, on time enough to pull, athletic build, didn’t get a thorough look at him playing defense because he wasn’t on the showcase circuit much and I didn’t see SD instructs….

Eric A Longenhagen: Top 5? Maybe. I’d definitely take Salas, De Vries, Mayfield, Cruz ahead of him but I can’t think of anyone off the very top of my head. Pena is good, I’d probably take him, too.

Kate: Assuming he comes back looking the same post-surgery, what are the odds Farmelo vaults up the Top 100 into elite territory?

Eric A Longenhagen: Uhh I’d guess of any of the guys like him and Alfredo Duno where the tools are so nutty bu there’s risk for whatever reason that the “hit it big” rate is like 25%. For every Elly or Oneil or Walcott I feel like there are three Bleises.

Tony: Is a player like Gino Groover particularly hard to project on due to his wrist injury? And, speaking of which, how do you project his trajectory — a full upcoming season at AA or do you think there’s enough bat there that he could advance more quickly?

Eric A Longenhagen: You just kinda toss out his exit velos or use 2023 as a way to give yourself better context for his ’24. I think it’s fine to take a Bayesian approach with guys like that and lean heavily on your priors. I think how quickly Gino climbs will be dictated more by their needs than his play. If they don’t re-sign Walker then Del Castillo and Groover might be on the fast track. More likely 2026 for Gino after the departure of Geno, feel me?

Guest: just curious when you will add the J15 prospects to the international board and what you are hearing about Bluejays signings either in this upcoming class and future ones, thanks for the chat as always!

Eric A Longenhagen: Starting work on turning my notes into Board rows this weekend, should be fully baked by the holliday

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually had Toronto’s pool as being overcommitted, not sure if that’s still true.

Dallas: Endy Rodriguez appears to be blocked by Joey Bart and Henry Davis. How do you envision the pirates catching situation playing out? Something has to give

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure either of those guys is standing in Endy’s way if he’s actually hitting. He has experience at other positions and all three could be rostered. So long as he’s just getting regular at-bats after missing so much time, that’s fine to start.

Random Fish Fan: Hey Eric, was wondering your thoughts on the current Marlins farm system.

Eric A Longenhagen: I liked their approach at the deadline where they were getting tons of pieces back in each deal, but I feel like I was lower on a bunch of the guys they got. I don’t particularly like Norby, for instance. I am generally a little lower on everyone they got back from SD for Arraez. I think the direction their amateur department is headed in is a good one, based on their ’24 class.

GA Blood: Now that the fall league is over, what’s your schedule looking like in terms of baseball consumption?

Eric A Longenhagen: I devoured Premier12, now am watching the occasional LIDOM game. Mostly my consumption is tape study. I’m watching more NBA and less NHL this year than last because Ja is back and the Coyotes left.

Oly: Is it reasonable to think that Cole Young or Colt Emerson could contribute to the Mariners in 2025?  Which would you hold on to if one were needed to push a trade through?

Eric A Longenhagen: Young is in better position to help in ’25. Neither would be untouchable in the right deal. Want Luis Robert to be baseball Randy Moss for you? Trade whomever.

Robert: Did you get a chance to see Grant Taylor in the AFL?  If so, what are your thoughts on what you saw?

Eric A Longenhagen: Buncha times. Raw but understandably so given how little he’s pitched. Flashed three plus pitches, I’m in, he’ll be a top 100 guy. mas: Locally Sourced Arizona Fall League Notes: Grant Taylor and Connor Phillips Are Nasty | FanGraphs Baseball

Disco Danny Ford: does mo baller make opening day in Chicago and if not, when.  what are long term prospects for a big stick being swung by an even bigger person?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m cooling on him. He’s husky but not big, he’s like 5-9. Was turned off by how little pullside contact he made against AFL guys sitting 91. He’s gotta be a better ball blocker to actually catch, and catching is the only way he’s going to be a 50 type player.

Guest: What is Sebastian Walcott‘s ceiling and ETA?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Christlike ceiling. 2027 ETA, probably more like 2029 before we see him hitting 30+ bombs

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be 23 then

Fish: Thoughts on Griffin Conine after his pretty solid stretch to end the season in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes guys with *this much* power have a relevant but narrow peak.

Bencle Mens: With the contraction of the minors and less quality in the high minors, will we see younger guys take a chance in Korea or Japan get better quality reps?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think this is underrating how tough NPB is. I worry that more Latin American players will decide to sign with NPB and develop in their minors, there was a minute when this was happening but less so of late. If you’re polished enough it presents an interesting path to eventual free agency, but the way draft bonuses are priced creates enough incentive for guys to stay.

Brendan: Of the hard-throwers in the 35+ FV section of the Arizona list, who do you think has the best shot at developing into a legit setup/high-leverage pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Damn, it might be just be Ciprian. Knowlton is freaky and there are good reasons he’s still so raw, so he’s probably got the best chance to do it any time soon.

Klubot3000: Two questions on your AZ write-ups:

1. Crisantes write up seems pretty bearish. Personally thought the contact skills were pretty darn good and we might project another mph or two onto his 90th EV as he gets to age 21-22, which should put him MLB caliber territory given plus (maybe even better?) contact skills. What is it about the visual eval that has you rounding down so significantly on the data?
2. Roman Angelo just had a great season but your write up on him was pretty brief. Seemed like his stuff ticked up as much as anyone (+3mph on the heater over ’23), and I really liked the change up in my looks. Is it an age-to-level thing that you’re dinging him on here? Any other nuggets that you might have left out of your report?

Eric A Longenhagen: Crisantes I don’t see where the projection is coming from. I know he’s young but he’s maxed out, and if you watch him swing enough I don’t think he’s really a true talent 90% zone contact guy or whatever he was….

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a big league grade on him, obvs, but look how good you’ve gotta be to be a 50 at 2B: Major League Leaderboards – 2024 – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Angelo he’s sitting 94-95 and that’s slightly above average velo, the spin axis on the fastball (1:30) is in that area hat seems to be very hittable. Like him to provide low leverage length. If the arrow keeps pointing up then maybe I’m light.

Guest: Assuming Sasaki winds up going to either the Padres or Dodgers, which top IFAs are those teams linked to and what do you think happens to those kids?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s no reason to speculate about this until it happens, it’s good for nobody involved. If he were going to be a Dodger then, in my opinion, the posting would have happened on this side of the cutoff date when they have among the most money.

RAH: Eriq Swan was one of the best pitchers in the AFL, which doesn’t really mean anything, but did anything meaningful change with his profile based on those showings? Improving command and just pitching seem to be his biggest developmental needs, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, just pitching and facing hitters that good was a step up for him. Had him 97-98, cutter 87-89, sweeper 82-84, changeup 90. Freaky small forward type body, delivery is more natural looking than in college. Love him.

Chicken non-tender: Thoughts on Anderson Brito?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really like him, idk if I was the high guy on him when their list ran or not but I remember being pretty aggressive ranking him considering he was DSL at the time. Little guy, like 5-10, big time arm sitting 95 with 20 inches IVB, potential plus slider but really inconsistent finish right now. Changeup is okay, love to project on it because of the athlete/arm action piece. Still a little guy in A-ball not gonna be a top 100 guy for me this offseason or anything crazy like that, been burned too many times by these A ball arms, especially the wee ones

Fish: When can we expect the Marlins top prospects list to drop?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna do CHC, SFG, COL next and then move to the orgs based in Florida, though whether I start in with the Gulf Coast teams or the East Coast teams is tbd.

joe: Quick thoughts on Arjun Nimmala

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m scared he won’t hit.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still.

Victoria: Do you think the Cubs plan on having Shaw and either Caissie/Alcantara on the OD roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe Alcantara because of his option year situation, probably not the others. Shaw might kick the door down, I suppose.

whiff rate: How confident are you in Kumar Rocker as a starting pitcher after last season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Smedium. He’s been hurt too often for ten healthy starts to make a reasonable person confident.

Jay: Is there any intrigue in Yonathan Perlaza 페라자 with his return from the KBO and a NRI deal with the Padres?

Eric A Longenhagen: Honestly, I should go watch his tape to see, idk right now. Once he fell down the defensive spectrum in the Cubs system it was kinda over for him as anything more than depth/org type but maybe something has changed.

Victoria: what were your P12 takeaways?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta juice Do Yeong Kim‘s and Hiroto Takahashi’s grades, Shosei Togo was kinda meh in the finals, Chieh-Hsien Chen needs to get added

Eric A Longenhagen: Team USA needs to find a way to get better pitching on their roster

AL Central Casting: With one team likely to blow their entire 2025 pool on Roki, it’s been reported that this will cause chaos when the signing period opens. What are the biggest effects you anticipate? What kind of players are most likely to be impacted most? Will a bunch of minimum ($10K) signings just not happen, or will they end up signing for under that (since they wouldn’t count against the pool limit)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just a reminder that I wrote about this in August and I’ll admit to being frustrated that I haven’t gotten my electronic attention cookie for it (I’m a baby). Let’s Ballpark Roki Sasaki’s Market | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: It depends on who he signs with. Some teams give most of their pool to a couple of guys, some spread i out.

Coach1973: Do you see Carson Williams making an impact with the Rays in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not. They’re deep in front of him and he can’t hit breaking stuff.

Scotty: Would you trade Shaw/Ballesteros/Triantos for Crochet? (which is the rumored asking price)

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah

tumtum: How does an arm bar look, why is it detrimental, and what is the correction?

Eric A Longenhagen: A Visual Scouting Primer: Hitting, Part One | FanGraphs Baseball

Lord Thunder: Prospect showdown: Who do you got between A&M and former A&M OFers Jace Laviolette and Braden Montgomery?

Eric A Longenhagen: Monty, I’m gonna be lower than consensus on Jace, lotta swing and miss from both guys but one is just freakier than the other.

tumtum: What should I think about Xavier Isaac’s increase in K%? Was there something that happened that hampered him this season or was there degradation in skills?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s kinda scary and long to the up/in portion of the zone, think he could cut his stride and shorten up while still producing huge power.

Buf: Does the players union care that Sasaki will get way less than he should? It seems like the current pool cap or an international draft with bonus caps lower player pay by a massive amount- what would the players have to give up to go back to the old system?

Eric A Longenhagen: A not so great thing that I think has been true about the PA for most of my life is that they don’t really care about guys who aren’t in the club yet.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hence the trends in Int’l and draft bonuses

Brendan: If you were handed the keys to an amatuer draft, which team’s structure/model/draft history would your draft most align with?

Eric A Longenhagen: BOS, ATL, MIL

Shirtless George Brett: Does pitch repertoire factor into evaluating pitchers? Like do some teams value specific pitches/mixes more or less? Or is the thinking more as long as its effective throw whatever.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, especially when it comes to fastball shape and plane.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Hi Eric! Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, and Kendall George are all L/L A ball OF for the Dodgers, all have different skill sets. Who are you highest on compared to industry opinion?

Eric A Longenhagen: De Paula, not close.

Guest: Any chance you’d look to go back to working for an org rather than stay in a public role?

Eric A Longenhagen: Expansion Team X, sounds fun.

Refugee: What exactly does plane mean on a fastball? Doesn’t the location of a given pitch inform plane? Are certain types of plane generically good or bad?

Eric A Longenhagen: Location does impact the plane (approach angle, vertically and horizontally) of any individual pitch, yes, but if Tim Lincecum and Mark Appel both locate a fastball to the same location, one of them is going to have a shallow plane that is very difficult for hitters to get on top of and one of them is not.

Eric A Longenhagen: In general, average or typical or generic is bad. Guys like Chris Young or Verlander have steep plane but it’s so steep that it’s unique and becomes good.

Eric A Longenhagen: Obvs command is a huge factor for guys to locate their fastballs to their most effective location

Will: Do you think the A’s will speed run a Nick Kurtz call up

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

lrgibson1: Do you think they give into an intl draft? That seemed to still be a sticking point for the union…

Eric A Longenhagen: I do

Eric A Longenhagen: Based on their all of their previous concessions. They’ll fight like hell and use it as a negotiating chip but ultimately I bet we have another overhaul to hat system at some point, draft or not

Buf: How far away is the first D1 female baseball player, or do you think it’ll never happen.

Eric A Longenhagen: Australian Baseball League Female Pitcher Genevieve Beacom debut

Eric A Longenhagen: Softball makes it tough because all of the American athletes are playing a much different sport. For a while I thought she’d come from tennis or something, now I just think she’ll be Australian where girls baseball is becoming a thing.

Eric A Longenhagen: Because of how much pitching depth teams need I’d guess that’ll be the position. I used to think 2B.

Jacob Kelley: Do I have to be subscribed to get a question answered?

Eric A Longenhagen: No but I have a couple hundred people in here and there are a lot of questions. You do have to be a subscriber to get to sick holiday lights background on the site, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: mira:

Eric A Longenhagen:

Jacob Kelley: Most likely Braves prospect to be traded this offseason? And thoughts on Drake Baldwin.. should he be untouchable?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think Drake should be untouchable but I think with d’Arnaud gone it gets tougher to move him. Nacho is kinda blocked, though, huh?

Keefths: You seem very low on Crisantes. Some scouts are saying he can really hit. You don’t think he can develop average power ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol we are gonna find out.

Coach1973: The lights are awesome…thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: What team did you set your colors as, Cleveland?

Jorge: Nacho might not be blocked soon.  Bowman also said recently that Ozzie could be a trade option.  His defense has gotten really bad and the low obp approach may age poorly.

Eric A Longenhagen: There ya go

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh look a that I’m way over my time. I’ve gotta split and make a few phone calls. See you next week when I’ll be back from Winter Meetings with some other new illness like the flu or being a Cowboys fan. g’bye