Let’s Ballpark Roki Sasaki’s Market
The Yankees’ acquisition of $750,000 worth of 2024 international bonus pool space at the trade deadline got my gears turning around the seemingly looming Roki Sasaki posting. There has been considerable reporting (such as this Chelsea Janes Washington Post jawn) to suggest that teams expect, or at least are planning for, Sasaki to be posted this offseason, and my sources tend to agree (though not universally). In this piece, I’m going to talk about how Sasaki looks (spoiler: not his best), how his posting will be different than that of most other Japanese players if he indeed comes over this offseason or next, the way teams have been behaving and preparing for his potential posting, and what shenanigans they might get up to as they continue to do so.
For those unfamiliar…
Sasaki has been the LeBron James of Japanese baseball since his junior year, a known generational high school talent who has gone on to deliver on and perhaps exceed expectations at the highest level of Japanese baseball. Sasaki turns 23 in November and his feats of strength are already legendary. He touched 101 in high school and once threw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span, including a 12-inning, 194-pitch complete game during which he also hit the game-winning two-run homer. He was the first pick in the 2019 NPB Draft by the Chiba Lotte Marines, had a sub-2.00 ERA in his 2021 rookie season, and then transcended the sport in 2022 when he threw 17 consecutive perfect innings that April.
The 6-foot-2 righty retired 52 consecutive batters (the MLB record is Yusmeiro Petit’s 47) during that stretch. His fastball averaged just shy of 99 mph in 2023 and he touched 103, making him the hardest-throwing pitcher in NPB history. He has one of the planet’s nastier splitters, and his slider quality also leapt in 2022. Sasaki was having an even better 2023 — 85 IP, 39% K%, 5% BB%, 62% GB%, 1.88 ERA, 0.92 FIP — before he was shut down with an oblique tear in July, which cost him most of the rest of the season and was a harbinger of things to come in 2024.
Sasaki’s Stuff Is Down
Roki made three appearances at the very end of the 2023 season coming off the oblique injury and his stuff was crisp as usual. That has not been the case in 2024, as he missed just about two months with an unspecified right arm injury and has shown suppressed stuff when he’s pitched. He made his first start off the IL on August 1, and though his velocity had rebounded somewhat, he isn’t currently in peak form. Here are some pitch and performance splits from 2023 and 2024. I pulled some of these from Synergy and some from DeltaGraphs:
| Pitch Type | Usage% | Avg Velocity | Miss% | Chase% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 98.8 | 24% | 29% |
| Splitter | 35% | 89.6 | 53% | 48% |
| Slider | 14% | 87.6 | 45% | 33% |
| Pitch Type | Usage% | Avg Velocity | Miss% | Chase% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 48% | 96.7 | 12%(!) | 25% |
| Splitter | 29% | 88.6 | 51% | 35% |
| Slider | 22% | 84.2 | 37% | 23% |
These are still good numbers, but the drop in Sasaki’s fastball and breaking ball velo, as well as the decline in his fastball’s miss rate and the dip in the chase rate against his secondary stuff, is all relatively concerning given his injuries. The injuries have also limited his ability to demonstrate he can sustain a starter’s workload, with his 20 starts and 129.1 IP in 2022 by far his single-season career high. Below, I’ve put his 2024 performance within the context of both NPB and MLB:
| Category | Roki 2023 | Roki 2024 | NPB Avg | MLB Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB Velo | 98.8 | 96.7 | 91.1 | 94.4 |
| K% | 39.1% | 28.3% | 18.5% | 22.3% |
| BB% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% |
| GB% | 61.3% | 47.1% | 45.7% | 42.4% |
| FIP | 0.92 | 2.47 | 3.22 | 4.10 |
| SwStr% | 19.3% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 10.9% |
| O-Swing% | 38.1% | 29.9% | 31.0% | 28.3% |
| Z-Contact% | 77.5% | 89.2% | 87.8% | 85.3% |
The potential of a fully operational Sasaki is astronomical — at peak, he is in Paul Skenes territory, better in terms of pure stuff but not in terms of command. Even if there are some initial struggles or he suffers a severe injury early during his MLB tenure and requires surgery, at some point while Sasaki is in the majors he will probably be one of the nastiest handful of pitchers in the league. His 2024 struggles and injury history are notable, but none of this recent dip will impact the money Sasaki gets from an MLB team this offseason (if indeed he chooses to come over) because…
If Sasaki Is Posted This Offseason, He Won’t Make Much Money
Sasaki doesn’t yet meet the age or pro experience requirements to be exempt from international bonus pool restrictions. To be deemed a “Foreign Professional” and sign a contract like the 12-year, $325 million deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto inked last offseason, a player must be at least 25 years of age and have played in a professional foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons. Sasaki will meet the age requirement in November of 2025, but because of the pandemic (which washed out his would-be 2020 debut), he won’t meet the six-season requirement until after 2026. His contractual earning power two years from now, when he would be paid more like a true free agent, is much, much greater than it would be this offseason, when it looks like Sasaki’s bonus will be capped around $6 million by baseball’s amateur bonus pool restrictions. And his bonus could well end up being less than that because most teams have already spent or committed much of their 2024 and 2025 bonus pools.
The only other NPB star who has come to MLB early and been subject to the current system of bonus pool restrictions rather than the posting system alone is Shohei Ohtani, who signed for $2.3 million in 2017. That was right after the amateur signing rules had changed — a 19-year-old Luis Robert Jr. signed for $26 million (with the White Sox paying a dollar-for-dollar tax to MLB) earlier that calendar year.
If you’re unfamiliar with the history of MLB’s bonus rules for international amateur players, you should read this glossary entry, which provides an overview and timeline. In short, under the current rules, MLB teams start each signing period with between $4.75 million and $7 million of bonus pool space, tailored within that range depending on many factors like whether a team has signed qualified free agents or exceeded luxury tax thresholds.
Who Has the Most 2024 Bonus Space Left?
This is the thread I’ve been pulling at since the trade deadline: Which teams have the most bonus pool space remaining for the 2024 signing period (which ends December 15), and which have the most unspoken for in the 2025 period that begins January 15? We’re in the middle of the 2024 period right now. Most of the big-money international amateurs signed in January and began their pro careers in the minors this season. Teams know how much money other clubs have left in the current signing period, and provided me with consistent and exact figures as I worked on this. I could give you the remaining pool amounts for all 30 teams down to the dollar (some have less than $20,000 left, as they’ve spent all they can), but it makes more sense to show you the top handful of teams at the moment:
- Los Angeles Dodgers – $2.5 million
- Baltimore Orioles – $2.15 million
- New York Yankees – $1.5 million
- San Francisco Giants – just shy of $1.5 million
- Boston Red Sox – $1 million
- Detroit Tigers – just shy of $1 million
- Chicago White Sox – just shy of $1 million
Pool amounts could still change and my sources expect they will. Teams can trade for up to 60% of their original pool space, but since the trade deadline has now passed, they can only do so with players who are not on their 40-man roster. After the 2023 trade deadline, the Dodgers traded multiple minor leaguers to acquire a bunch of pool space in order to sign Korean righty Hyun-Seok Jang (who is nasty, by the way), so there’s precedent for this. If Sasaki is posted early enough in the offseason to sign prior to December 15 (when the 2024 signing period ends), then I’m told there might be a mad dash to trade for pool space with which to court Sasaki (also giving some teams an opportunity to acquire prospects in exchange for their unspent space). Or perhaps the order of operations will instead be that teams will offer their maximum acquirable pool space and then only trade for it after Sasaki has agreed to sign for that amount. That way teams aren’t trading stuff on spec and being left empty-handed if Sasaki goes elsewhere. But if rival teams know you have to acquire that pool space, it gives them leverage in trade negotiations for it.
The Yankees have already acquired $1.3 million in pool space this signing period via trades involving JT Brubaker and Caleb Ferguson, so they can only acquire another $1.49 million before they max out at just shy of $3 million of remaining pool space. The other clubs listed above have not, to my knowledge, traded for 2024 pool space and can still acquire the entirety of their maximum allowed amount. For those teams, that number is (remember, this is based on their initial pool):
- Los Angeles Dodgers – $3,555,000
- Baltimore Orioles – $4,268,880
- New York Yankees – $1,491,320
- San Francisco Giants – $3,555,000
- Boston Red Sox – $3,555,000
- Detroit Tigers – $3,912,000
- Chicago White Sox – $3,555,000
As you can see, the Orioles can technically outmuscle and overtake the Dodgers in available pool space between now and the end of the signing period by about $400,000, at a shade over $6.4 million. But of course, if Sasaki decides to come over this winter rather than in 2026 when he’d be paid more, it’s perhaps an indication that money is not the most meaningful driver for him and that he might just sign where he feels most comfortable (which people in baseball generally believe to be the Dodgers) rather than where his bonus would be the biggest. The potential for other streams of income will likely be most plentiful in LA, too. If Sasaki is posted this offseason, he’ll be set for free agency at age 29, after the 2030 season.
I have dissenting sources who believe the Marines don’t have enough incentive to post him this offseason, and that Sasaki’s inability to stay healthy for a whole season helps them make the case for keeping him. As you can see from the posting rules, the math pretty clearly incentivizes Chiba Lotte to wait until Sasaki is exempt from the bonus pool cap before posting him if they want to maximize their fee, not to mention that waiting to post him would also mean having a national superstar on their team for two more seasons, with all that comes with it. The Orix Buffaloes received a $50 million posting fee for Yamamoto’s record-breaking contract, while if Sasaki gets a $6 million deal, his posting fee will be a mere $1.25 million. Even when Ohtani came over and signed for $2.3 million, the posting system rules at the time (again, check out that glossary link for the timeline) allowed the Hokkaido Fighters to cash in for $20 million. As Janes notes in her piece linked above, “a player can work with a team to include a clause in his contract, which could, in theory, dictate an earlier posting. But those clauses are not standard and are rarely made public.” She also notes that it’s currently unknown if such a clause exists in Sasaki’s contract.
What About Posting Sasaki in the 2025 Signing Period?
If the Marines do post Sasaki, presumably at his behest, they could decide to wait until the calendar turns over to January 2025 so he can sign when the 2025 international signing period begins, which would give him access to a different collection of teams. So who has the most pool space left in 2025? That’s a much harder question to answer. Deals with players for 2025 only exist as verbal commitments right now. We know teams’ 2025 pool amounts, but verbal deals aren’t logged as official by the league until they’re official in the current, active signing period. When a player comes to a verbal agreement with a team, especially if it’s for seven figures or more, word tends to spread to other teams, sometimes coming directly from a player’s camp as they inform losing clubs that they’ve been outbid. Teams track future agreements on their own because it’s important for their decision making and strategy to know how much space other teams have left and how much is left across the league as a whole. But because these verbally committed amounts currently only exist in teams’ internal systems based on word of mouth, what my sources have listed for 2025 varies quite a bit org to org. That said, there are still some clear patterns. Here’s a general idea of what I’ve gleaned:
- Always mentioned among the top uncommitted 2025 bonus pools: Guardians
- Often mentioned among the top: Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers
- Sometimes mentioned among the top: Red Sox, Cubs, Royals, A’s, Mariners, Blue Jays
- Rarely mentioned, but mentioned: White Sox, Tigers, Dodgers, Cardinals, Rays
Again, this is inexact. I think there’s signal here because of the consistency with which those top five or so teams have been mentioned, but if you want an example of the variance here, one source told me a team has $3 million left to spend while another told me they were basically tapped out. According to most of my sources, the peak uncommitted 2025 pool amounts seem to be approaching $4 million, but more often, the top teams are thought to have roughly $3 million left, with a bigger cluster of teams in the $2.5-ish million tier below them. If you look again at the remaining 2024 amounts and compare it to the number of teams that have $2.5 million (plus what they can trade for) at the start of 2025, Sasaki has more money and options available to him once the new signing period starts, but none of those is the Dodgers.
I’ve also had sources remind me that commitments might be broken to free up pool space in pursuit of Sasaki. This is only a 2025 possibility and not a 2024 one, as deals in the latter signing period are actually done. I’m not sure how comfortable teams will be breaking verbal agreements if Sasaki continues to look like he has so far this year, or if they’ll be dissuaded by the optics of reneging, which I think most people would consider a crummy thing to do. Every year there tends to be at least one big-money agreement that gets broken, but the profile around Sasaki is enormous compared to all but a few international amateurs. Everyone will know. It’ll definitely cause an online kerfuffle and might become the type of thing that breaks through to broader sports media or sparks meetings at the league office about how to handle it.
Let’s Recap
If Roki Sasaki gets posted this offseason (which people in baseball generally believe to be the case), the Dodgers are both the rumored favorites to sign him and the team that currently has the most remaining pool space to do so. If it’s announced in the fall that he’s going to be posted, teams may quickly trade for pool space in the 45-day window they’ll have to woo Sasaki to make him their most competitive offer.
The Orioles can trade for enough space to surpass the Dodgers in 2024 and are also generally believed to have a competitive amount of 2025 space to make a run at Sasaki if his posting timeline ends up occurring after the new year. The January/February 2025 field would be more crowded and probably more lucrative for Sasaki and the Marines, but if he wants to be posted this offseason, that might be an indication that he doesn’t really care about maxing out his money, at least on this contract. The Guardians seem to have the most money left for the 2025 signing period right now, but other teams could trade for the pool space to compete with them, and maybe even pass them. Regardless, a thing to monitor the rest of the year is how Sasaki looks, because while he’s still really nasty, he hasn’t been anywhere close to his peak form. That won’t necessarily change the way teams pursue him, however, because the amount of money a team would shell out for Sasaki this offseason would be dwarfed by his potential.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
It makes less than 0 sense that the Marines would post him before 12/15. I’m not sure why that much space was dedicated to discussing the 2024 pools given this point.
“As Janes notes in her piece linked above, “a player can work with a team to include a clause in his contract, which could, in theory, dictate an earlier posting. But those clauses are not standard and are rarely made public.” She also notes that it’s currently unknown if such a clause exists in Sasaki’s contract.”
It may not be up to the Marines, if Sasaki’s contract dictates he can choose to be posted this year
Considering Sasaki reportedly demanded to be posted last offseason and then held out until only a few days before spring training (only signing a 1 year deal) I would bet a substantial amount that such a clause totally exists or at the very least there is some sort of handshake agreement and he will be posted this offseason.
The article explains exactly why, and provides actual information rather than opinions. I think it’s great.
Sasaki has been making some noise publicly and privately over the last 12 months about being anxious to come over. Marines have the final say, but there’s an element of needing to keep the relationship cordial if they’re going to get what they need going forward. And Roki at least has the leverage of going to the media, which is a move with some precedent in these matters, if not actual contractual leverage.
But, for example, he held out a VERY long time in signing/ratifying/whatever his contract for the 2024 season, and it was quite a public story when it happened. It’s assumed that the holdout was primarily related to his posting, and it’s speculated that the team and player may have come to an agreement on the date at that time as part of what got him to start playing this year.
Chiba Lotte hasn’t posted anyone since Tsuyoshi Nishioka in 2010. I can’t see them giving up Sasaki and passing on $50 million just to make the player happy.
Does anybody really expect Cleveland to bid for Sasaki?
Have they ever signed a big name japanese player?
Or a top latin prospect?
I thought those deals are the province of the Yanks, Dodgers, and Mariners.
Japanese stars act like tgere’s no other team in MLB.
Cubs got two pretty decent players with Suzuki and Imanaga, but your point still stands.
Best international players I find at the time of signing were Francisca and Robert Arias (45 FVs). Gabriel Rodriguez (released last week) I believe was the most expensive at $2.1M.
Sounds about right.
They tend to spread their money around to minimize their exposure.
“Best of the signing class” guys? Nope. Those fail from time to time and once is too much for them.
LAA, TEX, NYM have signed top Japanese players at various points in the last 10-15 years.
TEX- Darvish
LAA- Ohtani
NYM- Senga
Going much further back, the Mets also had Kazuo Matsui.
I will not stand for this Hideki Irabu erasure 😀
If a prominent American had to move to Japan, do you think they’d be more likely to go to Tokyo or Osaka or a bumblefuck flyover town?
No MLB city fits the definition of “bumblefuck”.
Counterpoint: Arlington
Yeah, maybe, but the gist of this is correct. If money isn’t the issue, then players will choose based on the team’s organizational competence and soft factors related to location. Let’s not act like there’s not at least 15 teams with no prayer of signing this guy from the start.
Agree.
So if you’re the Guardians, you need to make a pitch centered around the organization’s reputation for pitching development and helping pitchers become the best version of themselves.
Probably not enough, but I think it’s the only shot.
He already is (has been) as good as he will ever be.
That sales pitch will work with most college draft picks (like Bieber) but not with Skenes or Sasaki.
Or most hitters, for that matter.
Cleveland’s strengths as an organization are mostly about maximizing return on payroll and identifying flawed young pitchers they can help. But the top pitchers aren’t going to find an extra gear just for going to Cleveland.
The problem with that pitch is he’s already basically developed. But it’s better than nothing.
The other issue is that if he signs with them, he is very likely to be traded at some point. Less likely with a larger market team that would only trade him as part of a rebuild.
I live in a bf flyover town, and I still found this comment pretty funny.
I am in east Bumblefuck, we keep it classy here unlike those mutants in west Bumblefuck. Many of our buildings now have running water (it’s brown, but it runs) and our literacy rate is up over 15%
I’ve never trusted those West Bumblefucks .
I reckon it’s “them West Bumblefucks.”
Go big or go home: Tokyo all the way… with the exception that proves the rule being a star whose great granddad had been stationed in Sapporo or was a huge Kobe Bryant fan as a kid or some such personal story.
I know he’ll probably get some nice endorsements if he signs with the Dodgers or Yankees instead of returning to Japan, but he is going to be leaving something like $200M in contract money on the table by posting early. Even if he wants to hit free agency earlier after proving himself in MLB, he can just ask for a shorter deal or one with opt outs, and he’d still be leaving something like $40-80M on the table. I know that some people only care about competing but this is not a small difference…
His countryman and probable teammate did the same thing and I think he will be just fine with his $700 million 😉
If Sasaki is good, and everyone seems to think he is, he will get paid a ridiculous amount of money eventually. Probably sooner rather than later. Hell, even if he is just ok he will still get a generational amount of money because thats the market for starting pitching. I don’t think there is much need to wring our hands about any money he may be giving up by coming over early.
If the only thing that matters is counting how big your pile of money is, then you could be making a valid point. But what if money isn’t his primary motivation? Most kids playing baseball aren’t driven by the dream of getting The Bag. It’s glory. It’s not impossible that he doesn’t mind giving up maximizing his absolute dollars to chase glory now …..with the knowledge he gets enough money for his desires eventually. It’s a personal choice rather than a black and white (or green) decision.
Even the contract he gets coming out early is generational money as long as his translator doesn’t gamble it away. Even in Japan, US$3-4M is nothing to sneer at.
You’re making my point
That was my intent.
A lot of people (especially in the MLBPA) focus on big numbers for the sake of the big number and lose sight of the context.
It pays to put those numbers in the context of the real world from time to time.
If we want to get really pedantic Sasaki is likely already a millionaire just from playing in Japan. I don’t know if his contract is public but if he was making under a million this year I would be pretty surprised (only info I could find was that he made ~$600k in 2023) And he probably also has endorsements as well.
If the unthinkable happened and he washed out of MLB he could likely go back to Japan and still make hundreds of thousands a year. People forget that after Dice-K left MLB he played in Japan for another 4-5 years and probably wasnt doing so for peanuts. Im sure if you looked you would find alot of asian players doing the same.
So its not like money is a huge concern for him the same way as an IFA from the Dominican or something. If he never played another game he is probably just fine already.
Oh, there is big money and BIG MONEY.
But few players go for the last buck they can get for the sake of the money. Often the money is a proxy for acclaim or status.
So the money does matter but it is far from the only thing or even the main driver.
Ohtani went with the Angels because he wanted to play with Trout. (Little did he know it would be Trout and him and little else.) And it was still LA.
Others go elsewhere but rarely, if ever, it’s their first choice. how many went elsewhere *despite* offers by the Dodgers? The Cubs got lucky that the Dodgers were focused on Ohtani and Yamamoto and Seattle was cutting payroll.
The money is nice to have but the other issues matter at least as much.
Seems crazy that he would want to make himself available this winter. He’s injured and has diminished stuff, so maybe he feels like he should lock it in now, but the payout is so much lower than if he waits a few years that it’s probably worth him rehabbing and then coming over when he’s ready health-wise.
There’s also endorsement deals that Sasaki can cash in on if he comes to MLB right away, though, and he wouldn’t have to worry about what a team pays him. Ohtani came over 2 years before he was eligible for a “real” contract, and then immediately upon arrival he signed a big endorsement deal with New Balance.
Endorsement deals would make up some, but not a huge dent. He’s not a two-way unicorn like Ohtani who was going to be out there hitting homers even if his arm blew up (which it has, several times, and Sasaki looks like he might be on the same track), and the truly huge endorsement deals, the kind that can soften the blow of losing out on hundreds of millions of dollars, are for NBA players and Tom Brady (and Ohtani) anyway.
Yamamoto for example is estimated to make $5m a year in endorsements. Most top end pitchers get much less. Aaron Judge makes $6m a year. Bryce Harper makes $7m. If Sasaki gets Yamamoto’s $5m, but is missing out on Yamamoto’s huge signing bonus and guaranteed huge salaries, it just doesn’t make sense.
MLB contracts are guaranteed.
The feeling of mortality from his issues may be more of an incentive to get what he can when he can regardless of what he might (theoretically) leave on the table.
This is obviously with zero sources. If Roki gets posted this offseason, the $ left in bonus pool will be irrelevant. He isn’t going to sign somewhere cause they have 2 million/another team 800 k. If he’s looking to maximize money he won’t be on the market this offseason.
The sources have been sketch, there has been some people suggesting he does have a clause in his deal if he seeks mlb they have to post him (ohtani had this kind of deal). The team and his side have been completely quiet on this and none of the super reliable overseas reporters have confirmed one way or another.
I hope I am wrong, but I think in the end he will end up a dodger
That would be my preference in his position
Yup. I would bet the Dodgers against the field.
I cant imagine anyone being able to beat “hey, you want to play with Ohtani and Yamamto in beautiful weather for a perennial contender?” as a sales pitch.
As a non American I will also say that don’t think Americans understand the appeal of California to the rest of the world. I’m only from Canada and I would pick a Cali team as well if given the choice lol. When non americans think of “America” more often than not they are picturing California.
Idk man, the talent is undeniable but the way his arm has been abused is borderline malpractice by every coach and manager he’s had since he was 16.
I really want to be wrong because this might be the most gifted arm on the planet, but you already get the sense that mileage on his arm is catching up to him
He’s been babied for years with the Marines
I understand why this comment is downvoted, but it isn’t wrong. Since acquiring him, the Marines have been EXTREMELY careful with his workload, ranging from skipping turns in the rotation to deactivating him for no explicit injury reason.
I’m not sure if that’s a good sign (his arm has been “taken care of” for the past few years) or a bad sign (the Marines know more about his health than anyone else, and they are keeping him off the field), but in either case, his arm has not been “abused” lately.
This was my first thought too, but then, this happens to SOOO many HS arms in the states. In a weird way, you might have *more* security with Sasaki because he’s been so heavily documented (of course, Yamamoto was a perfect picture of health…).
Ultimately, you just never know when a pitcher’s arm is gonna go, but they all go at some point. That’s just part of the deal when you sign a pitcher, regardless of talent level. And this is the key point made by Eric on this matter:
Yamamoto being a good example for Sasaki for what his future holds.
Pitchers get hurt.
And they know there career hangs by a thread every time they toe the rubber.
Quite possibly.
So why wait for his arm to fall off instead of coming ASAP?
You people feel immortal…but reality sets in soon enough.
Young people.
(sigh)
I have been excited for Sasaki for a few years now (he has the best nickname ever, btw) but knowing he probably winds up a Dodger takes some of the fun out of it.
I agree. I hope he goes to midmarket or smaller team.
I was gonna say, do you call it a “market” if all reporting indicates he’s basically already agreed to terms with LA?
They are looking at an All-Japan rotation by 2030.
If he’s coming over early and forgoing earning as much as he can, he’s a Dodger. He would rather play for a World Series perennial contender than stay in Japan, and nothing else really matters. Ohtani could just give him cash from his couch cushions to make up for it.
Considering Ohtani didnt seem to notice tens of millions going missing from his account god only knows how much is in his couch cushions.
Or he signs with Giants, Padres or D-backs to pitch AGAINST the Dodgers as often as possible to show he’s the baddest MF to come from Japan to The Show. Hop on the Dodger bandwagon or be the difference maker that brings San Diego their first ever championship?
Much as I love Mookie Betts, I’d prefer to show myself as even better (were that mathematically possible, as I know from living in Boston Mookie is better than ME at literally everything, but for Mr. Sasaki it’s different!)
He’ll sign with the Buccos. Roki and Paul and pray for squalls.
Jared Jones erasure.
How about…Roki, Skenes, and Jones and say prayers for cyclones?
If Japans best talents keep coming over planning to sign with the Dodgers, I’m sure the media and baseball execs will look at ways to overcome this ‘issue’, but what can they realistically do? (Honest question, I am curious what ideas y’all have)
It could be any team having this advantage, but the question is, “Do we really want any one team to have near exclusive access to signing a foreign leagues elite homegrown talent?”
Also curious what players like Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Sasaki would have fetched under the old posting system, where the Red Sox spent $51M+ for the chance to sign Daisuke to a $52M contract.
I think we need a larger sample size before we worry about that, right now it’s just Yamamoto. It wasn’t that long ago that Ohtani chose the Angels
Technically, yes, only Yoshi has chosen the LAD recently as of now, but if Sasaki goes to LAD this offseason, it will be Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Sasaki on the same team for the next 10 years.
I agree with you that we need a larger sample size, but if that does happen, I think the baseball media will respond by labeling it an ‘issue’ and discussing ways to change the system so that the top talent from outside the USA doesn’t always go to the same few MLB teams, and I think Manfred will at least look into it.
Because it is a problem, right? The talent rich keep getting richer because they are already the premier destinations and they can take bigger monetary risks. Meanwhile, some markets cannot afford the risk of the contract it would take to be in the conversation, let alone the contract it would take to attract someone away from the premier destinations.
No, it’s not a “problem”. It’s just big market and Dodger hate.
Nobody had any issue with it when the Mariners signed Suzuki, Sasaki, and Jojima all in a matter of a few seasons. It’s only a problem for people because a successful large market team is doing (actually, “might do” is probably more appropriate) it and people think that somehow makes it unfair.
No one in Sasaki’s position is likely to make that mistake again anytime soon!
If it’s not the Dodgers, it’s going to be SF or SEA. Big markets, large Japanese populations, much shorter flights back home. Maybe the Yankees and Red Sox can step up their development programs in Europe.
Not only is it a small sample size we are also talking about what is likely a generational talent here. Its not like there is going to be a Sasaki type young phenom coming over every year.
I think its abundantly clear in retrospect that Ohtani would have chosen the Dodgers if the NL had had the DH at that point in time
In the past 10 years, 17 Japanese players signed a major league deal coming from NPB. Dodgers signed two of them (Kenta Maeda and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.) You are worrying about a hypothetical scenario that has little bearing with reality. It’s not like the Dodgers signed Yamamoto at a discount because he loves the team.
Perhaps a stupid question, but what is preventing teams from having a handshake agreement with Sasaki to sign him to a large contract extension in a few years?
I guess this would require a lot of trust, but seems like a big loophole.
Ben Franklin once said: “The only way three people can keep a secret is if two of them are dead.”
The Minnesota Timberwolves tried to pull this in 1999, for Joe Smith (mid level journeyman) of all people. The NBA found out and stripped them of 5 first round picks.
The ironic part was that the contract the Timberwolves were going to give Smith was a massive overpay. If they didn’t have to lose the picks, they should have thanked the NBA for voiding it.
Yeah something similar happened in the NHL. The Devils tried to circumvent the cap by signing Ilya Kovalchuk to a ridiculously long contract (it was like 17 years or something like that haha) with the obvious intent to lower the AAV by adding years that they knew would never be played (He was already like 31 at the time of the contract). NHL killed it an fined/took away picks from Jersey. MLB would do the same on any Sasaki extension.
It also seems like a pretty terrible idea from a team standpoint. What if he winds up not being very good? Are you still gonna honor the agreement for a huge extension or back out. Because if you back out its going to be reaaaal messy. Like lawsuits and lawyers and probably penalties from MLB for cheating messy.
I read Sasaki wants to pitch in Pittsburgh with Paul Skenes.
I’ve heard that Sasaki is obsessed with skiing the North Face Slope at Seven Springs.
A totally reliable source told me that Sasaki is fascinated by the sugar beet crop of western Minnesota.
*insert photo of Roki wearing Padres gear last season*
I read the glossary entry, but I still have a question: How long after Sasaki signs his initial contract with a team can they sign him to an extension? What’s to stop a team from using minimal international pool money to sign a player, with the promise of giving that player a long-term extension for big money (with a big signing bonus) once they sign, or as soon as they can?
Since Roki can choose the team he comes to if posted, maybe he doesn’t care about eventually reaching ‘unrestricted’ free agency, in which case talk about the money he’s going to be giving up or the total international money a team has available to offer him is moot. Whichever team does get him is going to want to extend him, he has the potential to be a 23-year old ace next year.
I’m pretty sure this was brought up when Ohtani was posted and the answer was no. I dont remember if there is a specific rule against it but any contract needs to be approved by MLB and this would be a pretty obvious attempt to circumvent the rules.
Tremendously informative article. Great stuff.
I can’t wait to watch this kid pitch in MLB. How much he gets paid isn’t particularly of interest to me.