Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 2/27

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, and welcome back. Gonna keep things to a tight hour this week so I can hustle across the valley to a big league game, but I’ll move as quickly as possible.

BC: Here are two top tier prospects, Tatis and Bichette. Which one has the biggest upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Tatis because he might actually stay at SS

THE Average Sports Fan: Do you think Senzel can be ever decent at SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible. If you assume you can hide what used to be considered subpar range with better positioning then it certainly improves his chances. If I’m skeptical of anything it’s how he’ll look around the bag.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I guess we’ll see. I don’t like watching Paul DeJong at SS baseball but I guess we’re headed there.

ChiSox2020: How does Jake Burger‘s injury impact the White Sox long term plans?

Eric A Longenhagen: It probably doesn’t, I assume they’ve planned for prospect attrition and they have plenty of other 1B-only guys in the system.

Billy Beane: Eric, everyone else starts their chats on the hour, and you start one minute after. Are you trying to get out of talking to us?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Pie Eaton Contest: Eric, could we see any college players in the bigs towards the end of 2019, thinking Singer or any of the other top college prospects? A couple guys like Benintendi and Schwarber were extremely ready and made the jump that quick, with Strasburg fitting a similar timeline as well.

Eric A Longenhagen: Madrigal

Joe: What are your thoughts on Bobby Bradley at 1B for the Indians as early as 2019??

Eric A Longenhagen: Alonso and Encarnacion are both signed through at least 2019. i think’s it’s more likely he’s traded.

Hannah Hochevar: Any ST prospects to keep an eye on re surprisingly breaking camp?

Eric A Longenhagen: Minor league games haven’t gotten going (and don’t until mid-March for most clubs) so if anyone looks really good you guys probably already know about it because the action is all covered in the big league games.

Billy Beane: Have you gotten a chance to see Dairon Blanco at all? The things I know about him: 1. He is Cuban 2. He is very fast.

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him as an amateur and didn’t think he’d do anything but run.

Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: Where do you see Y Alvarez and A Espinoza in 2-3 years? Two guys I was excited for and they seemed to fall off the map with injury’s and lack of progress. How far are they away from 1) joining the big leagues and 2) making an actual impact?

Eric A Longenhagen: If Alvarez shows no signs of progress this year you can stick a fork in him as a ‘star’, Espinoza we just have to wait and see. I saw his final start last year and he was electric.

Mr Padre: How about a comp of Franchy Cordero and Corey Dickerson with the bat, plus much better speed and defense?  Also, isn’t Cordero’s ceiling much higher than Renfroe’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that’s reasonable. Franchy’s reasons for swinging and missing and not reaching base are a little different than Dickerson because they’re twofold. Threefold if you think he’s just not a smart player. He’s not selective and doesn’t track pitches well. If either or both of those are remedied he could be really good because it’s like 7 run, 6 raw (at least) and his swing has natural loft.

Jack: Do speed grades only account for speed or baserunning effectiveness? Is there a seperate grade? Has there been any analysis that correlates speed grades to StatCast SprintSpeed.

Eric A Longenhagen: Speed is typically graded using handheld stopwatch times from home to first. Yes, there’s some human error, but scouts are constantly checking with one another to confirm times and there are enough samples that I think they’re reliable. I also think this is a better measure of speed than sprintspeed, which measures the fastest single second window of a player’s season, and that’s it. It’s one second. It doesn’t take things like acceleration into account, which is important when you’re only running 90 feet most of the time.

Korean: Which dodger prospect will actually get a chance to play significant number of games in the majors this season?

Buehler? Verdugo?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s that time of year where we start getting ETA questions and so I have to remind everyone that we just don’t know. It took a Vernon Wells injury for Trout to come up. Talent/readiness are only two of many variables that impact this stuff, and unpredictable injuries are a big one.

Aj: Nolan Jones looks like he has an incredible ceiling, and I predict a breakout. What do you think? I currently rank him in my top 50, and nobody really seems to have him that close to 100.

Eric A Longenhagen: Concerns he’s 1B-only, but he also might have elite ball/strike recog.

AJ Preller: Does Dinelson Lamet have the ability to figure out a “plus” 3rd pitch and be a top-of-the-rotation stud?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not

Eric A Longenhagen: Doesn’t mean he won’t be good.

Jake: Scouting from the CF camera it looks to me like Yairo Munoz has some Jhonny Peralta to him, your thoughts?  Any feedback is appreciated.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s fair. Is he still listed at 165? Hilarious.

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW the Cards list has been updated with Munoz, etc: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-23-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/

Seth: MLB- “We have a pace of play problem. That’s why we are not appealing to a younger fan base”

Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t had a whole lot to say about the pace of play stuff because I realize MLB needs to appeal to a broader demographic than just me, who would rather baseball be played in a library-like setting with only me in the stands.

Billy Beane: Do you intend to post any scouting reports on Luke Heimlich? I don’t know what the etiquette is there. Sounded like he was a first round talent, last time anyone talked about his baseball skills, but also… y’know.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we have to cover the situation and all it’s hideous trimmings so the public has a chance to let it kick around in their collective heads and say something about it. If we just ignore it it kind of gives schools and teams carte blanche to do whatever the hell they want the next time something like this arises because there weren’t repercussions the last time. It’s also helpful for teams for us to write about it because it means I’m assessing what the other teams are doing about the situation and it gives them some info about how their fanbases might react if they were to pick someone who did something like this.

Jack: Do you attribute Austin Meadows‘s struggles last season to mostly being injury related? Not sure what to make of him moving forward

Eric A Longenhagen: Details here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-25-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

Xolo: Why doesn’t Jeremy Eierman get more attention? It seems like all the attention he does get is about whether or not he can stick at short but it seems like his bat would play at third as well.

Eric A Longenhagen: Been calling him a first rounder in this space since last summer….

Asking for a friend…: How do you view video scouting?  For instance do you think that scouting a college game off the live SEC feed that ESPN has is a viable option if someone wants to write (and show) reports, but can’t attend the games live?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess, but you’re missing stuff about the players and also failing to develop yourself as an evaluator if you don’t get to games. Like, if you interviewed for a scouting job with a team and told them you only watched games on video you’re probably not getting that job.

Drew: What separates guys like Kieboom and Mountcastle from Vilade and Nolan (CLE). All see like exciting 3B prep bats with 55 hit/power tools but Kieboom and Mountcastle are getting a lot more love.

Eric A Longenhagen: Have those guys Kieboom, Villade, Jones, Mountcastle

Drew: How different are Daulton Varsho and Chance Sisco? If anything, isn’t Varsho’s profile a little more exciting since he can run and blocks/receives pretty well?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sisco’s swing much more under control, has more natural loft. Varsho plays with his hair on fire and slashes the ball on the ground. Sisco has also proven he’s okay behind the plate for several years while scouts were skeptical of Varsho back there and he hasn’thad enough time to prove people wrong yet.

Billy Beane: AJ Puk throws a two seamer now, so he’s up to 5 pitches from the 2 1/2 he had in college. How excited should I allow myself to be?

Eric A Longenhagen: He looks like a stud.

Xavier: Can I be optimistic about Gavin Cecchini? Put on 15 lbs of muscle and revamped the swing–hit an absolute bomb in ST the other day.

Eric A Longenhagen: If the swing is better than yeah, stock up. YOU HEAR THAT, CISTULLI?

RoyaleWCheese: How much of a precedent is there for prospects coming back from ruptured Achilles tendons? I’m trying to stay optimistic about Burger, but there doesn’t seem to be many Achilles comeback stories. Not to mention the Sox don’t have a great history with the injury (Jared Mitchell).

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s enough precedent for recovery in other sports that White Sox fans shouldn’t be worried about Burger’s career just being over. Mitchell had other issues. Roman Quinn tore his achilles but has had a myriad of other injury problems…i can’t thihnk of anyone else who wasn’t an NBA of NFL player.

Blue Morpho: It doesn’t look like the Brewers will have a spot for Jesus Aguilar. Do you think he can go through waivers unclaimed?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, guys like this get claimed and DFA’d all the time. He’s someone’s flier at 1B.

Owen: Going to see Tim Cate in Jacksonville on Friday. What should I expect? What should I look for?

Eric A Longenhagen: 90-93, with a hammer. Very athletic, note how ridiculous his stride off the mound is for his size.

Andy: You think Gerson Bautista can be anything more than a middle relief guy?  Saw him the other day and he was throwing gas at 97, secondary stuff seemed OK, had a somewhat funky, deceptive delivery.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, probably just a frustrating arm strength guy.

Drew: When players like Hunter Harvey miss a ton of game action, I assume they are missing out on very valuable developmental time. Is this a correct assumption or are these players still doing things to help them develop while they rehab?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, some guys come back with better bodies than they had pre-TJ (Luzardo is a recent example) but it depends on what the injury allows you to do while you’re not playing ball. So like Burger, for example, is already really big for a 3B and now is going to be immobile for a while.

Fred: Britany Ghiroli mentioned the possibility of Austin Hays eventually pushing Adam Jones to a corner.  Could you see that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, Jones isn’t very good there and Hays (who’s a fringey runner home to first) doesn’t project there in a vacuum but he’s probably better than Jones is as this point in his career.

Drew: You’ve previously fielded questions about the changes in power but do we need to redefine scouting expectations for fastballs too? The power thing might just be temporary but I have to assume increased velo is here to stay.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, some teams have moved that scale within the org and others have not, but everyone knows velocity is up and here to stay.

Bravesy McBravesface: Why was Dansby Swanson the first overall draft pick?  Was Bregman’s skill set not as polished, or did he change something in pro ball to make him the better player?

Eric A Longenhagen: There was less confidence that Bregman would stay at short

Drew: Hi Eric, thanks for taking the time to chat! When reading about prospects some publications expect young pitchers to gain velo as they grow into their frame while others assume that pitchers will never throw harder than when they are in HS. Is there any truth to either train of thought?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s kind of a debits and credits situation. Most guys don’t ever trow harder than they do in HS because throwing ever fifth day and for a longer stretch just grinds them down. Kilby Allard wasn’t a big-framed hs pitcher and looks like he could fall victim to this. Some guys have enough room for mass on the frame that balances out this particular issue and some guys have so much physical projection that you do have to predict they’ll be throwing harder at 21

KB: Whose farm system would you pick to be the best foundation for a team in 5 years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t deny what NYY has done is remarkable.

Jack R.: Can you give me some minor league bullpen guys who have a chance to excel in the late innings in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jose Alvarado, LHR, Tampa Bay Rays
Josh Graham, RHR, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Loaisiga, RHR, New York Yankees
Dillon Maples, RHR, Chicago Cubs
Julian Merryweather, RHR, Cleveland Indians
A.J. Minter, LHR, Atlanta Braves
Tanner Rainey, RHR, Cincinnati Reds
Seth Romero, LHR, Washington Nationals
Tanner Scott, LHR, Baltimore Orioles
Jordan Sheffield, RHR, Los Angeles Dodgers

Eric A Longenhagen: Ripped that straight from here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-some-lower-ranked-prospects-we-l…

bawling in boulder: What combinations of hit/power grades correspond to an average offensive first baseman?

Eric A Longenhagen: Any combination that results in a wRC+ of 112 or so.

Da Bum: Stats don’t mean much but JoJo Romero has been great at a young age. What do your reports say? What kind of velocity, movement does he have? Are the stats justified?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Jojo. Athletic lefty whose fastball has ticked up a bit since I saw him in college. avg slider, potential plus change.

Canada eh: Any Canadian prospects look interesting in this years draft class

Eric A Longenhagen: Josh Naylor‘s brother, Noah, is probably the best one. Damiano Palmegiani and David Rhodes are two BC kids who some area scouts like.

AS: Jose Adolis Garcia is turning some heads in Cardinals camp. Is he a future regular or a 4th OFer?

Eric A Longenhagen: We have a 50 on him and think he’s a regular but we’d be a little more confident if he were more selective

Shuck Bowalter: What’s happening with derek fisher? Is he still a solid prospect, just not enough room in that stacked lineup? Should they send him back to AAA to continue development?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’ll be the next guy that has huge exit velos and sprint speed that people start going nuts over because he goes from subjectively toolsy to quanitifiably toolsy.

Drew: Is there a dark underside to prospect evaluation in that you have to watch hundreds of kids toil away in the minors with no chance of making the bigs? Wondering if that can be tough to watch at times.

Eric A Longenhagen: It was worse when I was watching late-career 30-somethings in triple-A struggle with the realization that it was almost over after more than a decade. Everyone in baseball works really hard and it sucks when it stops mattering just because your body or mind start to wear down.

Anne: Prospect in the bottom 50 of top 100 you think will make the biggest jump into top 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be any of the crazy tools guys. I’ll say Nate Pearson

Chaz: Do you think Zack Hess will end up being a starter or a RP long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: He might be one of those guys where he’s developed as a multi-inning reliever from start to finish…

DRaysBae: the player’s Union is upset at TB, OAK, PIT, and MIA for not spending their revenue sharing to make the on field product better.  As a percentage, recent analysis shows Rays (for example) spent 56.2% of their revenue on players (MLB avg is 56.3%), but that was split 70/30 between MLB players and Prospects. Is the MLBPA wanting the Rays to spend less on prospects? If so, should the union care about prospects more?

Eric A Longenhagen: The union clearly doesn’t give a shit about minor league or amateur players. They’re, at least partially, in this position because their priorities during the last CBA were selfish and backwards. I root for labor, so please hire a damn lawyer to run your union.

JB: Better Bahamian prospect: Trent Deveaux or Kristian Robinson?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like both but Robinson has monster raw power potential.

Grant C: Where do you think Hans Crouse ranks this time next year? Top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible. Finishing the Rangers list today and he’s a 45. Even if you don’t think he’s a starter (I don’t) he could be in that Touki/Abrey range on next year’s list because his stuff is pure filth. Was up to 99 for me in AZL last year, sitting 95-97.

Eric A Longenhagen:

Cole guy: Is Braxton Garret the next top tier pitching prospect? Feel like he’s being slept on because of TJ

Eric A Longenhagen: What if you replaced his name with Kolek’s at this time last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brax was on our 100, we like him and hope he comes back strong. If he’s as he was pre-injury when he’s back that’s a chance for a bunch of 55s and 60s and he’ll be a high 50 or low 55 netx year

DTH: Looking like the Eugene outfield will include Velazquez and Kelli, who both have exciting signature tools (power and speed, respectively) with obvious warts (strikeouts, slugging). Thoughts on whether either or both have a good chance to conquer those issues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Whoever has started driving the Kelli train on a Cubs blog somewhere really must have some sway because I get questions about him every week. I think Nellie has a better chance of remedying the K’s because they’re largely due to him swinging super hard and not something harder to fix like bad hand-eye.

JB: Better Bahamian prospect, Trent Deveaux or Kristian Robinson?  Are any teams starting to focus more on those islands?

Eric A Longenhagen: Aha, you added an interesting wrinkle to that question. Yes, Arizona, Anaheim and Texas have all scooped up some Bahamian prospects of late.

Sonny: anyone in AZ you’re particularly interested in seeing?

Eric A Longenhagen: All of them?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Indians J2 crop

Dogg4Life: Where were all the talent evaluators when Mike Trout was coming up? What was his ranking… if I missed it please elaborate. And is their anyone in the future that comps to him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He was consensus top 3 (with Harper and Matt Moore) after he hit pro ball and blew up. I wouldn’t comp anyone to possibly the best player of all time.

Ford: Tell me about Jeremiah Jackson

Eric A Longenhagen: Has some twitch to him, didn’t think he had good hands over the summer so there’s a chance he’s not an infielder, at which point the contact issues become more concerning.

Jason: Going to UF at UCF a week from name, any non-top 100 guys to look at on either squad while there? Draftable this year or underclass, it doesn’t matter.

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/

Eric A Longenhagen: If we’ve got names from scouts/agents, they’re on there.

Spicy boy: How does Nick solak compare to Kevin Kramer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Solak is a better runner by a significant margin, Kramer made more substantive swing alterations last year. Both have great makeup.

Orville: Give me a reason to be optimistic about Will Toffey‘s chances of making the Majors, please!

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a bunch of 45s so might be Greg Dobbs or something like that if he hits enough.

winston : what’s the most surprised you’ve ever been by a prospect’s evolution?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw Bo Bichette play poorly (soft body, bad defensive infielder, ugliest swings imaginable) for most of his showcase summer (this is when I was only at ESPN) and then Keith thought he was the best guy at a tournament he saw in the fall. Forrest Whitley‘s physical transformation was also incredible during a similar span of time.

Hector: What are Jared Miller’s chances of becoming more than a LOOGY? Could he become an above-average reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was only like 89-90 this week, so watch that. I think his stuff plays way up due to extension and deception but I’d like him to throw harder than that.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I have to run. Thanks for your readership and presence in the chat, look for the Rangers list tomorrow or Thursday. See you next week!