Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 2/6/26

Matt: When does the top 100 content start to drop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Middle of next week! Draft rankings, How’s My Driving?, Top 100, Picks to Click, and bunch more stuff from starts rolling out Wednesday.

Jim: What are the chances that Wei-En Lin adds velocity as he ages? Seems like he could be a mid-rotation starter if he did.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he has that kind of ceiling but it’s more about him finding feel for strikes and consistency rather than velocity.

Key Jangler: Can Tai Peete be a Drew Stubbs-type?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not crazy. It’ll probably take a while but, yeah. Power, defense.

DbackJay: What is your opinion on the recent diamondbacks orioles trade and the players involved in it ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was working on updating the DBacks list this morning before we started. I really like Aracena, he’s added like seven ticks of velocity across the last two seasons, he touched 101, he has a plus-plus cutter. It’s unique late-inning stuff. He’s not as athletic as Clase, but that’s kinda what his stuff is like. He could be up at some point this year and, if not, then sometime in 2027 for sure. Arizona has put itself in position to have a really really nasty bullpen pretty soon.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mejia I’m still working on and will wrap when we’re done here. You should check back to the Dbacks list on The Board in a few hours and his report will be up.

nb: Eric – before Prospects Week starts, I’d like to be the first to ask you, “Why do you hate my team?”  With that out of the way, my team is the Phillies and based on their offseason, it looks like they’re counting on heavy contributions from Crawford and Painter this year (and maybe Miller, I guess).  I know you have expressed concern about Crawford’s ground ball rate and Painter’s post TJS delivery.  Have you seen or heard anything lately that alleviates or increases these concerns?  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know that they’re “concerns” so much as they’re just true things that (in Crawford’s case) historically don’t allow for big production, or (in Painter’s case) were different and less effective in ’25. Crawford and Painter are both going to be able to *do stuff*, Crawford in the nine hole seems fine, Painter’s delivery we will just see where it’s at when he pitches this spring.

Eric A Longenhagen: FWIW I wouldn’t go out of my way to overhaul Crawford’s swing, He’s shown gradual feel for better contact. It’s still more ground balls than literally any big leaguer, but it’s trending better just by naturally letting him swing like he does, and I wouldn’t mess with it yet.

Potato: Seems like Framber’s signing probably bumps Melton out of the rotation in Detroit, right? Is he good enough to force the issue sooner rather than later?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has options, he should keep starting, they’ll probably need him. You want to keep him stretched out for as long as possible, only ‘pen him in October.

Eric A Longenhagen: Melton I mean

llcrosby: Is Atlanta’s JR Ritchie mostly a #4/#5 ceiling, or does he have the additional velocity capacity to be a #3 or more?

Eric A Longenhagen: I love how he moves and he’s still projectable, he could throw harder. Not sure the fastball shape will allow his heater to really sing even if he does. We like him, he made the 100.

NFP: Any major takeaways or changes to your process coming out of 2025? Other than adding BG 🙂

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of it is really specific (right on down to how to care for my external hard drives, I tried drawing pitch shapes in my notes last year) and some of it is just being ready to adjust to changed processes yet again after the next CBA negotiation.

Oaktown Blues: Any prospects you’re looking forward to watching in the WBC?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just dying to have super competitive baseball coming off a three-month tolerance break

Guest: Yeah, prospects are fun and all, but let’s ask the important question: when’s the tutorial video about shaving your back with a bike lock?

Eric A Longenhagen: I changed from using the old, heavy locks with the loops at the end (the sling in which the Norelco was held) to a simple one-piece cable lock that can’t be used as a, uh, multi-tasker.

Brett: Any pathway for Termarr to boost his prospect status and claim the Pirates 2B job over the next couple of years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Brendan and I at least gave him a look as a potential Top 100 guy. He’s still on our bubble as we’re sitting here. We like him enough to consider the answer your questions “yes” even if we think he’s more a 45 than a 50.

Hits&Balls: Hey Eric, thanks for all the great prospect content as usual! Can’t wait for prospect week…and hope you get a break afterwards.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, the season starts. This is the start of the thing, time to roll.

Ryan: As a Dbacks fan, should I be concerned that a couple players dropped from their midseason rankings? Cunningham went from 50 FV to 45 FV and Drake went from 45+ in TEX system to 45. Is there anything Could you expand upon the reasons for their drop from midseason? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought Kayson had the best pure hit tool in last year’s class and 50’d him, Brendan thought he lacked the power of physicality to be graded that high right now. I thought Drake’s small school background was an indication he had more growth remaining and that he’d have some 2-3 WAR seasons down the road, Beeg thinks he’s more a stock no. 4/5.

Eric A Longenhagen: We still like both guys, to be clear

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Brendan’s Dbacks list, I gave him my opinions as if I were a scout source he was tapping for work on the list, the difference in those grades is small enough that it’d be wrong to say we disagree about those players, but there is a little gap there.

DR: As an O’s fan not sure I get the Blaze trade. Aracena seems like an arm with significant upside and Strowd at lease a semi-proven bullpen arm for a team with relief questions. Would IKF have worked as a competent utility guy and required less of a resource expenditure?  Or did perhaps the IKF signing make this more necessary?

Eric A Longenhagen: Blaze has more juice than IKF by a lot, and played pretty well last year when the Dbacks needed him to try different positions. I still think Baltimore paid a steep price for him and that Arizona sold high on a guy who I’ve had a fringe 40-man grade on for the last several years.

Oaktown Blues: How much signal is there in DSL stats? Are they more or less indicative of talent than, say, college stats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Very little signal, the stickiest stat from the DSL is contact rate.

Eric A Longenhagen: The play environment is so different than upper level pro ball. College stats have their own challenges but the distribution of the data is more normal, the DSL is all over the place.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like, Cags. Caglianone crushed in college but his chase rate was still awful. We know he’s risky because of the chase from that, even though he’s crushing.

Eric A Longenhagen: In the DSL, a guy might not have a red flag chase rate but he might have terrible plate discipline and you just don’t know it yet because the pitching quality isn’t good enough to reveal it.

Galahad: The Yankees have had 30+ consecutive winning seasons. How much would you say this has handicapped them in trems of player development as they are always drafting from the back end?

Eric A Longenhagen: The curve for Expected WAR by draft pick, aside from some weird ones like Piazza’s pick, is shaped like you think it’s shaped, and so your premise holds water. But also, they did draft Aaron Judge where they did, Mike Trout was picked where he was, Will Smith and Bo Bichette where they were, Jackson Merrill where he was…there are dudes still around, you’ve gotta find them.

Eric A Longenhagen: And also all that winning tends to create an aura of excellence that has its own magnetism in free agency and international amateur scouting, so 30 years of winning should yield more in those spaces than it probably has for NY the last little while.

DR: How overused is “generational” to describe prospects, particularly international guys?  Read about NY being linked to a 13 year lld

Eric A Longenhagen: Way way way overused, even in the sports media I consume, which isn’t as buck wild with hyperbole as the Shouty Shows or doom scrolling apps.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like Dane Brugler isn’t calling Fernando Mendoza “generational”. Hell, has Bryce Harper even been “generational”? He’s awesome but….

Eric A Longenhagen: Part of what I think makes someone “generationally talented” is when it’s so obvious that we can all know and agree that it’s possible. Like Wemby. At 13 you can’t know that

Eric A Longenhagen: Or they prove it, like Trout.

baseballer8489: What do you have on Luis Lara’s bat? He’s obviously got a great glove but wondering if his bat will be good enough to be an everyday player (or is he more like Blake Perkins type)? Looked like he made some promising improvements last season.

Eric A Longenhagen: More like Perkins (though a little better), tough to see there being meaningful power there.

Jacob: At this point, what are the 90th, 50th, and 10th percentile outcomes for Daniel Espino?

Eric A Longenhagen: 10th is he keeps getting hurt, the 50th is he’s hurt a bunch still but is productive when healthy (Hunter Harvey type?) and the 90th is he magically is able to stay healthy because the day to day of being a reliever is magically the right fit for his body and he turns into peak Ryan Helsley.

Rodger: Who ends up with the most CF reps in STL this year? Scott, Church, Torres, free agent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scott

Beano: What is the outlook for LA OFs – Z Hope and J De Paula? The LA OF is set for the year but will these guys get a chance as injury replacements or Sept Call ups? Is there a bright future here or a bleak dusk?

Eric A Longenhagen: Those guys are good but I don’t think either of them is a realistic 2026 debut

Rodger: Is Jamie Arnold a fast track candidate this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. If he’s throwing strikes with his fastball again, I think the A’s are gonna be good and motivated for him to move quickly.

Homer: What happened to Didier Fuentes in the majors? A command issue or a lack of a good secondary?

Eric A Longenhagen: More the latter, and too green to succeed at that level, a bit rushed. We still like him, he’s making the 100.

Cub Fan and Bud Man: How does TJ Nichols stack up is there Aceability in there?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on my list of guys to check for top 100 consideration this weekend. Ace? Almost certainly not as I define it.

Tyler: I imagine information is limited on the new INTL guys, but is there anyone that stands out to you as someone you want to be early on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Angeibel Gomez and Randy Santana are the two guys whose reports read as stronger than their bonues.

Eric A Longenhagen: Grades and reports here: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

beanbong: Is Willy Adames a reasonable median outcome comp for Konnor Griffin? Better bat but worse glove than Adames?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think this is generally fair. I think “give a f*ck Hanley Ramirez” is what I said on our call this week.

J36T: Are you worried about Kendry Chourio sticking as a starter due to his size?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s definitely a skinnier guy, but he’s also too young to say definitively. He’s a great prospect who is probably 3+ years away, give it time to breath.

Jim: Which farm system do you think improved the most this winter? Which system lost the most talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Washington and Tampa, Miami got volume but I don’t love the guys they got, Arizona and St. Louis.

Eric A Longenhagen: Lost talent? Baltimore (but they had a super deep system, it’s fine) Houston lost some good dudes, Texas and Seattle

Guest: Thinking about a guy like TJ Rumfield, do you ever feel the industry needs to adjust what is considered good at 1b? 10-20 years ago it felt like there were a larger number of mashers at 1b but these days it feels like there’s 5. Seems like a guy like Rumfield or even Shanuel might be better to lock in rather than playing carousel with traditional types like Rowdy Tellez

Eric A Longenhagen: The thing is that the position always has a Vogelbach/Rowdy/Aguilar/Cron/Voit bunch of guys in their  productive prime, as well as the Hanley, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, whatever types tricking down from other positions. I agree that Rumfield is a big leaguer who could have a peak like some of those lesser names, but those guys are 40s.

Eric A Longenhagen: 40 doesn’t mean “bust” it means 40

J36T: Thanks for what you guys do here.  Any player that you stuffed into the Top 100 that a year ago you never would have thought that would happen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Sal Stewart.

Eric A Longenhagen: A year ago I thought his hit tool would get exposed, I 40’d him.

2131, 1312: Who would you say has the most aesthetically pleasing swing of any current prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Benge

Mas Datos, Por Favor: Commenter Matt calculates farm value as the team lists drop, but could the FG team add a 2026 version that displays the current teams at least as they are added?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, after Prospect Week I will get with Meg and Dolinar to make that happen.

Philly FAN: Gage Wood pitches in our MLB PEN by Mid August True or False

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you even nailed the approximate date

HS: Thoughts on Forret/Dinges for Bello in a 20 team dynasty?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bryan Bello? Take the big leaguer, homie.

Mr. Burrito: Following prospects is about hope, so reading your work makes me feel good. Thanks. …Do orgs have different success rates after players reach, say, AA? In other words,  if four 50 FV players were in the Angels system and four were in the Dodgers system, which team would wind up with more MLB starters?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an interesting question. I imagine the answer is yes for the same general reasons that apply to all prospects, but the notion that a team might be better or worse at actualizing more mature athletes isn’t one I’ve asked myself.

Dodgers Blue: Eric, at last year’s review you gave Dylan Beavers a 30/50 hit tool rank.  Now a year later, where would you say he’s gotten to on that scale?

Eric A Longenhagen: 50/50

Pumpsie Green: Is Brayden Taylor just roster filler now or is there any hope for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He can really play defense and he’s gonna get to some power. I’ve had a 45 grade on him the whole time, I’m staying there.

drplantwrench: i think Christian Moore is slated to have a breakout season with the angels… am i being overly naive like i am every february?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so.

Gamblin Oscars: Could Jhonny Level ascend to Top 100 this season ?

Eric A Longenhagen: We like him enough to do it now. And Yolfran (surprise!)

Bugsy: Thoughts on Florentino of Pirates. Chances he can be top 10 prospect by end of year?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a little rich for me. Good hitter, though.

Potato: Is the top 100 set? Or are y’all still making tweaks?

Eric A Longenhagen: We have like 70 blurbs written and probably another 70 or so in the mix to either make the list or not.

Josh: Any dope from the MLK weekend events?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kids taking BP in January is not always the best look. Lotta bigger, more physical kids threw pretty good bullpens. Dexter McLeon Jr. stands way, way out.

Kuya Al: When it comes to Alfredo Duno’s defensive play, do you see him growing enough to be a full-time big league catcher, or is he an Augustin Ramirez type?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a future plus defender. Freak athlete for his size, wish his throwing were more consistent.

Dodgers Blue: Eric, is there a particular part of your daily scouting life that you enjoy more than the parts; ie: watching pitching performances, seeing hitters mash (or technical hitters use the entire field), athletic fielders making unbelievable plays – or simply discovering a new, lesser known name in the industry and getting to be one of the first on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Laughing about whatever crazy thing happens at the field that day with the scouts or other writers. From bee swarms to weirdly aggressive umpires.

Eric A Longenhagen: (And then discovering new faces)

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok folks, keeping it tight to an hour this week because I have lots of stuff to do. My next chat will be the day the Top 100 comes out, Monday the 16th.