Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/6/26

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up everyone? Good morning from the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound where I’ve got double-barrel action on the TVs already: Cuba/Panama and a mix of the very early college games…

Eric A Longenhagen: The Mets list ran today, so folks should check that out. Braves and Yankees are next.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s hang out for a while today and watch some sports.

Alex: Can you see the Braves farm system ranking mid range by next year? Large draft bonus pool for the 2026 draft and Alfredo Sena signing next January?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably still toward the bottom, growing prospects into 55 FV guys or better is what really moves the needle on our rankings.

Scotty: Afternoon Eric. Anyone you’re impressed with that you’ve seen recently on the backfields?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have mostly been at big league games so far. The minor league schedule officially gets underway tomorrow with one Triple-A game, most of the slate starts Monday. Teams have had camp games and the backfields have been used for Live BP and sim games, the kids are really just getting started.

Jeb: What is Griffin’s realistic ceiling? Something like Witt Jr? Higher?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s stronger than Bob but probably not quite as skilled a contact hitter. His ceiling is multi-time MVP, HoF caliber talent.

Magic Morten: Do You think Cedanne Rafaela takes another step forward with the bat this year? He’s been on fire this spring, but… it’s spring

Eric A Longenhagen: His tendency to chase is going to make him run hot and cold throughout his whole career. But the defense won’t slump. That’s the player he is, the years he runs into the most homers will be his most valuable in terms of production but I’d be surprised if he suddenly became selective.

sodo mojo: Which Spring Breakout game are you most excited to watch and why.

Eric A Longenhagen: Uhhh, the one chance I’ll have to double-up (LAD/CHW into SDP/CHC) is exciting. Sitting on Milwaukee across two days will be nice, too.

Hazmat Corntail: i know he’s still pretty young, but how alarming is it that Johnny Farmelo is striking out at a near 40% clip in the early small sample size of this ST?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think you should worry about data point like that after what like 20 plate appearances? Schwarber is K’ing at a 40% clip too, do you think he’s bad?

Pop: What are the odds that Ethan Salas ends up as an Austin Hedges type player? On big league teams because he is great at catching, but a dud with the bat

Eric A Longenhagen: Differences in handedness and physicality, but yeah that’s in play.

Yuniesky Betancourt: In the last chat, Brendan mentioned “bat manipulation” among college teams making it more difficult to parse college stat lines. Can you provide a little detail about how teams are doing that?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not aware of a common practice pervasive across the game, like the way sticky stuff had spread. I mean, the way the bats are being manufactured to satisfy the requirements of the rules but still improve distance is akin to golf clubs. Watch the college teams where the kids all use the same bat and maybe we can start to piece together how they’re being altered once purchased.

Yuniesky Betancourt: If you had to pick one current minor leaguer to have your back in a bench clearing brawl, who would you pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: Zach Maxwell

Lars: Is there a historical example of a hitter having contact rates in the realm that Lazaro Montes does in the minors and then significantly improving them?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can’t think of anyone off the top, contact rate is a pretty sticky data point

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think Laz is going to hit, I’ve made that clear for the last couple of years. Brendan thinks it’ll be enough for him to be good.

J: If you had to pick one surprising prospect to break camp with the MLB club, who would it be? Not counting Wetherholt/Professor McGonigle/Griffin and the locked-in pitchers here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Waldschmidt

The Actor for Al Pacino: The recent rash of PED busts in the majors got me wondering, how does a minor league player testing positive for PEDs affect your opinion of them? Noelvi Marte is the only high-profile prospect I can remember getting caught using PEDs in recent vintage, but I’m sure there have been others.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a body blow to the confidence interval. I don’t have a standard “well I’ll reduce their power grade by half” rule of thumb, I just take it as “I guess we know less exactly how talented this guy is now”

Eric A Longenhagen: I remember like Justin Lawrence, Pablo Reyes, Vlad Gutierrez, Clase…

Eric A Longenhagen: Most of the guys popped aren’t good to begin with.

Eric A Longenhagen: Reyes was one that made it tough to gauge what I thought of him, he did have a power-hitting peak in the minors that made him seem better.

AL Central Casting: How hard is it to literally just catch a major-league pitcher? Like, no framing or blocking needed – just a bullpen session. Would someone who played in their youth be able to actually catch these breaking balls or would a lot get partially or entirely missed?

Eric A Longenhagen: Most citizens aren’t strong enough to get the mitt there in time.

Key Flaw: Vance Honeycutt. He was SO bad last year, and this is an impossibly small sample size in spring training, but 5 plate appearances with 1BB and 4HR and his defense…. I can totally see what scouts can dream on with him. Is there ANY precedent for a turnaround of a prospect that was so bad at 22? Do you see any changes he might have made? What should we, as non professionals, look for to give us hope? (Hope bing a Rob Deer GG Centerfielder?)

Eric A Longenhagen: I bet he plays better because it’s tough to be worse than striking out 44% of the time or whatever he did last year. The defense piece of it is what will let him play in the big leagues. But Drew Stubbs type is the absolute ceiling there.

Guest: Thanks to you and Brendan and anyone else involved for the Mets prospect writeup! This is always one of my favorite days of the year, an excuse for some much-needed optimism about the future. Regarding the Mets’ success with pitchers drafted later or signed out of indy ball: would you credit that to scouting, development, or a combination of the two?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re welcome, it was just Beeg and I. Definitely a combo. Scouts should be armed with the knowledge of who their dev group feels like they can change in addition to just being open to what they’re seeing at the field.

Arcadian: Will Ethan Conrad be in the 45+ tier?

Eric A Longenhagen: TBD, I had a 45 on him pre-draft and it’s safe to assume he’ll stay close to that as we scout him here in AZ this spring and revise the Cubs list.

Beano: Do you recall Diamondback prospect Kristian Robinson? I think he’s in camp as an NRI – what’s his story? I seem to recall that he was well thought of – is he still?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lol yeah I do. Kristian was immediately exciting because he was built like 17-year-old Julio Jones and looked like he might grow into huge power while staying in CF. His career was derailed by an incident that included a drug-induced psychosis and him punching a cop, then dealing with visa issues as part of the fallout. The time away from baseball was not good for the development of his hitting and he’s struggled with strikeouts. We have a 40 on him and think he can still be a par time outfielder, but he’ll probably K too much to be a consistently productive player.

Devon: Jared Grindlinger reclassified for 2026. Where would you slot him on the Board?

Eric A Longenhagen: I need to update that, he’s a first rounder.

Shirtless George Brett: In the daylight article the main disagreement about Kendry Chourio was his size/delivery. Given that those two things probably aren’t likely to change much, what would you need to see from a guy like him to change you view? Or are you just always out on guys with those flags?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wanna see him look like this across 140+ innings and reach Double-A.

Guest: I hadn’t read much about Lantigua for the Mets, but it looks like he had a pretty good debut as an 18 year old in the FCL last year. Is he the kind of guy who could make a decent jump up in the prospect rankings this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not toolsy enough for that, in my opinion. More a skillsy low-variance guy with modest ceiling. Guzman is the guy from the FCL/Low-A group with real ceiling.

Thank you: Talk to me about Connelly Early and Payton Tolle. Who gets more IP in BOS this year. What do you see from them? Thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Early gets more innings because I think he’ll work more efficiently, but Tolle is the one with the dominant weapon in that fastball. Tolle could be like lefty Strider just feasting on heaters.

Wood: Is Mikaela Shiffrin in contention for GOAT athlete across all sports?

Eric A Longenhagen: She’s in the team photo with Shohei, Myles Garrett, McDavid, Wemby. Mbappe? Who am I missing? IDK if I think A’ja Wilson is on here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Alyssa Liu is incredible too, let’s let that breath another four years.

JK: What would you like to see from Luis Hernandez and Josuar Gonzalez this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: If they both hit their way to San Jose (maybe Josuar will break camp there) that’d be good.

Eric A Longenhagen: had a scout text me “I’d wager a few sheckles Josuar will be overall no. 1 twelve months from now”

Guest: When you talk about a player’s ceiling, what are the things you see that make you classify a hitter as having a lower ceiling (even if they have produced at lower levels)? What are the biggest areas that give you pause?

Eric A Longenhagen: How good can a player be if he doesn’t have power? Like Adam Frazier and Luis Arraez can only be so good, Jonathan Schoop might not be as productive as they are in a given year but in the season or two that he has 30 homers you would rather have that player.

Eric A Longenhagen: Garrett Stubbs has had a nice big league career. There was a certain point when it was unclear whether Dillon Dingler was going to hit at all, but that guy always had the better ceiling because of his size, power, athleticism, etc.

szakyl: During spring training what’s the first thing you see other than “being in the best shape of his life” that tells you this is a prospect to at least circle back on even if the change isn’t enough to change your priors just yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1) Has there been an obvious physical change

Eric A Longenhagen: 2) Has there been a mechanical change?

Eric A Longenhagen: 3) Is there suddenly a measurable change in a physical tool, usually at this stage that’s just arm strength, for hitters sometimes they’ll hit a ball like 3 mph harder tan ever before or are two ticks faster than before, and I pay attention to that, too.

Danny: Now that you’re delving into the Yankees list, is there any hope for their high priced, disappointing so far IFAs (Arias, Mayea, Villorio, Cedeno and Ruben Castillo)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Villorio is the one of that group I think deserves more runway

Kate: Is Davalan just too small to get to average pop?  Or is something like that actually possible in a good dev org like LA?  Do you think he has a better chance of that (avg pop) or sticking in CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had a source tell me he had the best measured bat speed in the SEC last year. Freaky little guy, I’d say avg power is in play more than CF fit.

Jake Jortles: Would you rather have a system with 1 or 2 future stars and a bunch of filler, or a system loaded with potential 2-3 war prospects.

Eric A Longenhagen: Two and three WAR players are stars, Jortles.

Eric A Longenhagen: There really isn’t such a thing as a system loaded with those guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re on a top 100 list we expect you to be a two WAR guy

Eric A Longenhagen: My number two key stopped working

Eric A Longenhagen: 1345 blerg

Eminor3rd: From what McGonigle has done in ST, and the clear path to PT at SS specifically (not ideal in the klong-term but maybe not so bad in the short term), are you on board with him breaking camp with the Tigers, or do you think he shouldn’t skip AAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: He makes the team

Kate: How much do you think Summerhill’s injury last year affected his performance?  Could a healthy version look more like a 50?  Reading different reports that seem to disagree whether he’s hit over pop of the other way around (though that might be more of an approach thing than a tools thing).

Eric A Longenhagen: Power-over-hit for me, not a great track record of U of A hitters, Tucson is a launching pad. IDK how I feel about Big Twelve pitching versus PAC and whether that makes his performance more reliable.

Kate: You’ve talked about guys who you’ve judged to just a be “no” in terms of their swing working long-term (e.g., Baez).  Is Quentin Young in this group?  Or have we not seen enough of him to say yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: His data indicates he’s a candidate for that binary “no”, freaky size and strength kept me on him enough to 40+ him.

KB: The most fascinating part about the WBC is we get to see the widest distribution of baseball talent on the field at once. Future hall of famers and JUCO level players facing off with everything in between.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I hope pool play is competitive enough to hold peoples’ interest. I think riding Olympics into this event is probably good, people have appetite for int’l competition.

John: Do any of these guys have future top 100 prospect potential? Hartshorn, Quinn-Irons, Dillon Lewis? Eyeing all 3 in a deep roto league that I’m in. Any personal favorites among the 3?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hartshorn is the guy from that group who I think has the most stable contact profile. Lewis is the closest to reaching the bigs, better athlete/power than Hartshorn and has the most obvious path to playing time in rebuilding Miami. JQI is a deep, deep projection sleeper.

Big Buckston: Kendry Rojas hit 98.5 MPH with the fastball this spring and has been sitting 96. Worth keeping an eye on to see if the velo bump sticks, or too early to get excited?

Eric A Longenhagen: Keep an eye on it.

Guest: I’ve heard the name Hector Rodriguez from the Reds mentioned a few times recently on pods. Do you think he has a shot at breaking with the club or would he be a in season call up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be surprised if he broke camp in the bigs. Full report here: Cincinnati Reds Top 40 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

David: Assuming Good Health for everyone, Is Ryan Sloan the top pitching prospect next year? Watched his live batting practice and his one outing and he has all the looks of an every day starter. Hard to believe he just turned 20.

Eric A Longenhagen: Him, Thomas White, Liam Doyle, and then maybe a healthy Jarlin Susana would be my mix right now. Sloan’s feel for location is the best of that group.

Johnny5Alive: Zach Veen – cleaned up.  Any chance he becomes an impact prospect again?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ve just gotta see if this added strength has helped him shorten up enough to handle big league fastballs. I just don’t know, I can’t say I’ve ever seen someone get this big this fast, I have no frame of reference for it.

Long time listener long time caller: Thought maybe there was a chance Wehiwa Aloy would sneak onto the clicks to pick list but it looks like he missed out. As a broad sort of question, do you take an stock when Baltimore trades a bunch of 2025 first round picks but Aloy isn’t one of them? Does it make you think Baltimore wanted to hold onto him way or that the Rays wanted/prefer De Burn and Bodine more?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Aloy, just think he’s chase-prone. I think it’s possible the Rays prefer Bodine to him but I’d be surprised if they did deBrun.

Nick: Can you give us 3 newer international signees that you’re most eager to see play in person at some point?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Red Sox kids from last year in fort myers like a month from now

Shandy Koufax: Partner and I are going out to PHX for spring training this year! Any recommendations for ballparks or things to do in town?

Eric A Longenhagen: Try to find a spot where you can drive to a couple different ballparks pretty easily. Staying ear Scottsdale Stadium gives you access to SF/CHC/ARI/COL/ATH/LAA in about 15 minutes of driving. North end of the metro gives you ARI/COL/TEX/KC/SD/SEA but less stuff to do around where you’re staying. See Taliesen West, Musical Instrument Museum, eat at Lom Wong and Hai Noon

Arlen Peters: Hey Eric, last year I drafted Walcott and Griffin in hopes they’d be the #1 prospect by the time the trade deadline came as trade bait which worked really well. Any guys that you think could be the #1 prospect by the trade deadline?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scoop up any of the shortstops in the 55 FV tier

War2D2: re: bat manipulation, the Baseball Bat Bros youtube channel did a video on “shaving” a BBCOR bat to make it hotter. Basically they pop off the end cap and shave a mm off the inside of a composite bat’s barrel to get more “trampoline” from it (though it breaks faster).

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I knew there was a shaving involved in some of this stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, it’s officially driving me crazy that I can’t type the number two. I need to go get this laptop fixed asap if it isn’t something I can fix on my own, so I need to go. I’ll be back next Friday.