Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 3/7/25
| 12:04 |
: Hello hello, hope everyone had a good week and is enjoying Spring ball (I know I am). I’m here to talk prospects, as always, and whatever else you so desire.
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| 12:05 |
: There are questions in the chat that can be answered via other parts of the site, and I want folks to know I’ll be point that stuff out not to be a dick but to help you understand how to better use FanGraphs and its many tools (prospect writer included). Thanks as always for stopping by. Lemme plug some stuff and then get to your questions… |
| 12:05 |
: First, the Braves list went live this morning.
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| 12:05 |
: Second, I went to see Roki on Tuesday
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| 12:07 |
: A link to high speed can be found in the description of that video, go look at his splitter, it’s nutty.
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| 12:07 |
: Okay…
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| 12:07 |
: Any more encouraging signs from Gavin Cross? Still holding out hope he can be a contributor …
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| 12:08 |
: 70% contact rate at AA last year, we’re talking like 35 hit with 50 power. Not great, but not to be dismisse entirely at this juncture. You hope he’s still a corner platoon guy.
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| 12:08 |
: Which prospects do you think have the best chance to pop up in the Top 100 for the Braves next year? |
| 12:08 |
: Probably Cam Cam, maybe Braun or Fuentes if one of their currently mediocre pitches improves
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| 12:09 |
: Owen Murphy if he comes back and is throwing hard in the AFL or Instructs
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| 12:09 |
: Is Alan Roden good?
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| 12:09 |
: Yes, full scouting report is over on The Board.
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| 12:09 |
| 12:09 |
: thoughts on Tyson Lewis and Alfredo duno |
| 12:10 |
: Duno has a full scouting report on the Top 100, which you can find here: 2025 Top 100 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
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| 12:10 |
: He’s a freak, I love him.
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| 12:10 |
: Lewis I thought was a good pick where they got him. His pre-draft report: Lewis is a hard-swinging left-handed-hitting shortstop from Nebraska. He has plus bat speed from the left side, which requires big time effort to generate. Lewis looks fluid and easy during BP, but tends to get messier in games. Limited exposure on the showcase circuit creates variance in evaluating his hit tool. He has a classically projectable baseball frame, with broad shoulders and a tapered waist. Lewis looked stronger during the spring of 2024 than he did the summer before, and he blew up the athletic testing at the Combine, where he tied for the second-fastest 60-yard dash time. His hands, actions, and arm seemed fine at shortstop in a limited look, and the speed to play center field is there if the requirements of pro infield play are asking too much. High school hitters like this tend to go in the first comp round.
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| 12:10 |
: Which Spring breakout game are you most interested to attend? Also any prospects standing out so far this Spring? not so much from results but approach / make up changes that are noticeable.
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| 12:13 |
: IDK if I have a favorite one to go to, I’m gonna go to as many as I can. Whatever opportunities I have to double up are my favorite. SEA/CLE and MIL/CIN are nice efficient ways to work on systems I still need to write up
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| 12:14 |
: Second question: Jackson Jobe‘s curveball looks good. Sasaki’s slider is slightly different than in NPB but we didn’t see enough of it to know how it’ll play. Aidan Smith looks like he was in the weight room. |
| 12:14 |
: Eric I hope you have been doing well personally and have been balancing the work load and looking for the good in public comments and not just the negative nancies.
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| 12:15 |
: Thanks, I’m okay. I’m not a comment section person, people can say what they want, good and bad.
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| 12:15 |
: Do you think it’s realistic for the Rangers to be throwing Marc Church and/or Emiliano Teodo into high leverage relief roles… let’s say by the end of May 2025?
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| 12:16 |
: I do, it’d be aggressive to move Teodo that quickly, though. Makes a little more sense to know where you stand competitively before that sort of thing. Church is pure RP, though. Nasty three-pitch mix in the AFL.
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| 12:16 |
: Thanks for suggesting Future Value by Kiley and you a few weeks back as it does answer a lot of questions I had. How much would you say the scouting landscape has changed since with things like minors contractions and more tech/data?
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| 12:18 |
: More in-office evaluators than boots on the ground scouts… ROI on player dev means more teams have shifted resources there… less in-person DI college scouting and more JUCO/D-II/NAIA and HS looks until the end of the year… more high speed video and visual AI integration to map biomechanics…more two-year DSL guys due to contraction |
| 12:18 |
: It moves quick
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| 12:18 |
: any names on the backfields popping up this spring?
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| 12:19 |
: Cameron Sullivan, Jacob Wright. Minor league ST starts next week, there is some backfield activity right now but we really get rolling March 11th
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| 12:19 |
: What can lead to a 50 hit tool, but with 60 for both Pitch Sel and Bat Ctrl for someone like Wetherholt or 55 hit tool for Bazzana?
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| 12:19 |
: Human Er(ic)ror on the part of ours truly
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| 12:20 |
: Has his start to the college season changed your evaluation of Jace LaViolette? |
| 12:20 |
: Not yet, 12 games, give ’em a sec
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| 12:20 |
: Termarr seems to have dropped off the face of the earth, at least as a top prospect. What do you think he needs to do to get back there, and in your opinion, can he?
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| 12:20 |
: He’s still a prospect, just not a to 100 one. I really wish he were better at defense.
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| 12:20 |
: Given how long prospects can take to develop and how quickly staffs can turn over, what is a good indicator that the development staff of a rebuilding club is on the right or wrong track?
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| 12:21 |
: Are late-round college pitchers popping out of nowhere?
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| 12:21 |
: What’s your take on what George Lombard Jr. is showing this spring? Looks like some improved contact numbers so far |
| 12:21 |
: Looks fine, too early to takeaway anything from stats like that, though.
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| 12:21 |
: Caminero or James Wood for next few years?
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| 12:21 |
: Woody, close though.
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| 12:21 |
: Does this injury change how you see Chase DeLauter? Another new potential recurring injury just seems damning
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| 12:22 |
: I’ll do an End-of-ST update that mostly includes adjustments for injury and I imagine DeLauter will slide to the back of the hondo because this keeps happening.
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| 12:22 |
: How would you rank these pitchers long term: Festa, Arrighetti, Birdsong? |
| 12:22 |
: B, F, A
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| 12:22 |
: He’s not a prospect anymore, but what’s your read on Schwellenbach? Can he repeat his 2024?
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| 12:22 |
: Yes, I think he’s a stud
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| 12:22 |
: Who has the best pitch in the minors right now?
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| 12:23 |
: Moises Chace’s fastball? Noach Schultz’s slider? Whisenhunt’s changeup?
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| 12:23 |
: Graceffo seems to be throwing harder this spring… think he’s figuring it out? |
| 12:23 |
: What is the shape of it like?
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| 12:23 |
: Is Johnathan Rodriguez going to make the Guards roster? And is he Fantasy relevant?
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| 12:24 |
: I think so, and maybe if you’re in a daily league where you can play matchups. Big power and bat speed, probably only hits lefties, though.
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| 12:24 |
: Any concerns about Coby Mayo‘s spring and general lackluster play since he was called up and then sent down?
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| 12:24 |
: I’m not worried he’s a bust yet, but I think he’s pretty clearly not ready.
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| 12:24 |
: Jonah Tong or Matt Wilkinson for my final prospect slot?
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| 12:25 |
: They’re close, I’d just take whoever’s 40-man timeline is sooner.
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| 12:25 |
: Great job on the Atlanta analysis, Eric! How do you compare Smith-Schawver to Schwellenbach, long-term. Are they easy #2, #3 guys in a star rotation? And for Waldrep, is he the likely long-term closer or more of an 8th inning stud set up guy?
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| 12:26 |
: I’d take Schwelly because his command is polished, both mid-rotation types on contenders. Waldrep more an 8th inning or nasty long man than a closer
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| 12:27 |
: How long does it take for a new development team to produce results
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| 12:28 |
: I can take a while, depends on where the tech/data infrastructure is at when they arrive. If there’s a huge logistical overhaul that needs to happen, it takes a long time to physically set up all those cameras and TrackMans (trackmen?), etc. and then for that data to start being recorded and parsed…it can take years.
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| 12:28 |
: Any buzz getting back to you on teenage hitting prospects B. Antunez (MIL) or Y. Padilla (STL)?
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| 12:28 |
: Nothing on Antunez, did work on Padilla for the 100 and felt he was just okay.
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| 12:29 |
: Samy Natera have a chance to be this year’s Yilber Diaz? (i.e. consensus RP whose athleticism/delivery give him a chance to pop into SP viability) Other candidates?
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| 12:31 |
| 12:31 |
: Likelihood that Drake Baldwin shows well enough that he sticks as a 50/50 playing time split with Sean Murphy when he returns – or flat out takes possession of the starting catching role for good? Or is that asking too much, too soon?
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| 12:32 |
: It’s plausible if ATL views it as a means to keep Murphy healthy. They essentially did a split with d’Arnaud, right?
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| 12:32 |
: Hey Eric, I’ve hearing things about Max Acosta’s SS defense potentially being plus; could this bump him up to 50 grade if he proves he can stick at short?
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| 12:33 |
: I think he sticks there and is good, power is still a little light to windmill slam him as a 50 (at least, this is the case from his ’24 performance)
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| 12:33 |
: Really like him, not crazy to 50 him, he’s in the 45/50 area
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| 12:34 |
: Which is better: a prospect who is average at everything, or a prospect who has a single freak tool but is mediocre at everything else?
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| 12:35 |
: Depends on a couple of things (what position? What’s the freak tool? Is it power (yay) or is it speed (meh)? Generally I think 70 and 80 grade tools are better than a bunch of 45-ishes
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| 12:36 |
: I know it’s a small sample and spring training, but do you like what you are seeing from Kyren Paris or Curtis Mead recently?
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| 12:36 |
: Mead definitely looks bigger and stronger, though still a little thick in the middle. Gives himself a better shot to have real power. Paris I saw one or two ABs in person and that’s it.
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| 12:37 |
: arent some prospects at SP, C, or a LH infielder more valuable than a RH LF?
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| 12:37 |
: If all else equal, gimme that LHH or more valuable defender, yeah
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| 12:37 |
: Given the Braves’ absolute fleet of 40 FV pitchers, would it not be likely that they prioritize position players in updcoming drafts while still getting their liberal arts school project arms later on?
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| 12:39 |
: I think the draft often just falls the way it falls and I’d rather take an arm i felt good about than a hitter I felt like i had to take. I think you’re right that they need a strategic shift to help create hitter depth in the system, though, I just think that needs to come in the Latin American market, spread their bonus pool out to more than just one or two big guys
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| 12:39 |
: how often do you see, say, a teenager hit well vs A+ or AA pitching and think “my eyes tell me they arent good and aren’t going to be good, but they are performing well”? Does that player usually end up being good or bad? I just ask because to me, “teenager hitting well in A+/AA” is a *really* quick heuristic I have used.
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| 12:40 |
: It’ll depend some on the hitting environment but I tend to trust my eyes. This year’s prominent examples are Michael Arroyo and Sal Stewart. Neither is for me despite the way they look on a spreadsheet
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| 12:40 |
: Gunnar Hoglund was sitting 95-97 in his ST outing the other day. How much would a return to his pre-TJ velo affect his outlook?
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| 12:40 |
: That’s *more* than his pre-TJ velo and I wanna see it over more innings, please. But that’s exciting af.
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| 12:40 |
: This goes a few chats back…you have KG>Dirk? What!
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| 12:41 |
: I do! No disrespect to Dirk, whose jersey (the green one that Puff designed) sits in a big rubber maid bin in my dad’s basement.
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| 12:42 |
: On the flip side – any prospects you were super excited to see but left you with concerns after watching live?
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| 12:43 |
: oh so many. I saw Caden Dana this spring and was sweating over his lack of FB command and lack of slider usage. I was ready to yell at the catcher.
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| 12:44 |
: who else…???
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| 12:44 |
: I remeber when Mac Gore couldnt throw strikes, that was terrifying
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| 12:45 |
: I’ve seen Rocker get shelled
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| 12:45 |
: I watch Jasson DOminguez play defense and worry
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| 12:45 |
: so many, there’s only one Trout
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| 12:45 |
: Do you think Franklin Arias or Brailer Guerrero could be big risers by next year? What do you think of them generally?
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| 12:46 |
: Like both those guys. Brailer I wrote up on the Rays list, which published last week. Swing is a little long into the zone but idk if that was because his shoulder was bothering him
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| 12:46 |
: Arias I love the glove, thought he was just okay as a hitter
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| 12:46 |
: looks good on the spreadsheet, though
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| 12:46 |
: Also you seem to be by far the high man on Yoniel Curet. What do you see from him that others are missing?
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| 12:46 |
: I can’t speak to what others aren’t seeing
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| 12:47 |
: held mid-to-upper-90s across 100+ innings each of the last few years, breaking ball has been plus at times and not at others, leads the minors in K’s the last two years, seemed to find a changeup late last year, is on the 40-man and on the cusp of the big leagues
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| 12:48 |
: seems good to me idk, wish his feel for location was better
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| 12:48 |
: Do you have any intel on Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang? His results were great last year, but do you think his stuff plays in the majors?
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| 12:50 |
: He’s okay, thought he pitched well in the WBC qualifier, t96, sits 93, plays down a bit due to angle, miss and chase rates on all his secondaries were a little below average last year, throws strikes tho
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| 12:50 |
: could be a 40 if you like him
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| 12:50 |
: he’s not Jo-Hsi Hsu or anything like that
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| 12:51 |
: Thoughts on how to make low spending teams competitive via next CBA?
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| 12:51 |
: Damn good question.
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| 12:51 |
: lemme think on that for a sec
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| 12:51 |
: Here’s a crazy one:
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| 12:53 |
: What if the league dictated that the owner would only get a % of the franchise’s sale if they “underspent”, like the salary floor is X, and you can have a payroll lower than X but then you get docked $ upon sale in proportion with the % that you’re below the floor?
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| 12:53 |
: like rolling average over a period of time % type thing
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| 12:53 |
: let’s try to concoct another one…
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| 12:54 |
: let’s try to create a positive incentive this time rather than a punishment….
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| 12:54 |
: What about creating a payroll expectation metric based on market size (and maybe other factors) and rewarding teams with picks and such when they exceed it?
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| 12:55 |
: Picks and hosting the ASG and hosting neutral site tournaments and such like that?
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| 12:55 |
: these are totally sober thoughts btw
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| 12:55 |
: Should I continue to hold Marco Luciano in my dynasty league? Does he ever become a solid pro?
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| 12:56 |
: If anyone in your league still likes him, trade him
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| 12:56 |
: I’ve been reading various pieces about how a kick change can help fastball slider pitchers with more side arm slots find a 3rd pitch. Are there any prospects you can think of that may benefit from incorporating a kick change?
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| 12:58 |
: Trying to think about who the three-quarters slot supinators are…
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| 12:59 |
: like sort the trackman data by fastball axis and find the guys hovering around 12:30, then which of them can really spin a breaking ball but has a cambio malo?
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| 12:59 |
: I think about Baumeister and Ty Johnson but they’re front of mind from recent list
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| 12:59 |
: Baumeister ight already have one for all i know
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| 1:00 |
: Josh Knoth?
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| 1:00 |
: Hi Eric, when you right a team list with someone else, how do the two of you divide up the work?
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| 1:01 |
: Depends, just trying to onboard James means assigning him guys I think will be relevant to his other work, and who I think he can best contextualize right now. Not asking him to sift thru DSL guys at the moment.
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| 1:01 |
: We’ll kinda divy up affiliates
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| 1:01 |
: Is there anything to be concerned about with Kristian Campbell‘s start to spring? Or is it just small sample size?
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| 1:02 |
: Not concerned, we’re just getting started, he’s played serious baseball for two years
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| 1:02 |
: More profitable for a team to have their own network or sign on with a RSN/pay per view?
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| 1:03 |
: You’re talking to a guy who writes hundreds of thousands of words every year rather than just do a podcast. Seth Keller’s Driveline pull down video has 5x the views as my Roki video from Tuesday. I’m an idiot except for scouting, cooking, and sex.
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| 1:03 |
: Thoughts on the Lawrence Butler deal?
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| 1:04 |
: He’s my 2025 AL MVP pick
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| 1:04 |
: Not a top hundred guy, but it really feels like defense alone could carry Ben Williamson to a 2 war season at third even if that would mean a 80-85 WRC+. Am I overestimating his defense or bat?
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| 1:04 |
: His bat, but I like him
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| 1:04 |
: just not *that* much
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| 1:04 |
: Can we get some love for Payton Eeles? One of the best stories in the minors. What do you think is the realistic upside for him in the majors?
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| 1:04 |
: I do, he’s a 45 for me, was almost on the 100
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| 1:04 |
: lemme post his report in here, Twins list is soon but I have him done already
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| 1:05 |
: Eeles is a 5-foot-5 outlier who had no Division-I offers coming out of high school and ended up at Division-II Cedarville, where he spent four seasons. He used his extra year of college eligibility after the pandemic to transfer to Coastal Carolina in 2023, where Eeles (who was listed at 5-foot-7 at the time) posted a .500 OBP as a fifth-year senior. Undrafted, he went to Indy Ball and raked in the American Association before the Twins finally signed him in May of 2024. I saw Eeles in Fort Myers at the end of May/early June when his affiliated pro career was just a couple of weeks old, and though he was perfoming at a superlative level, he was still just a 24-year-old dominating kids in A-ball. The Twins promoted him to High-A Cedar Rapids, where Eelse struck out just five times in 55 PA before Minnesota skipped him over Double-A and sent him straight to Triple-A St. Paul for the second half of the season. He never stopped hitting, and slashed .299/.419/.500 with 12 HR in 64 games at hitter-friendly St. Paul
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| 1:05 |
: At 5-foot-5, Eeles needs to be an athletic freak and outlier in order to succeed as an everyday player at the big league level. I think he is. This guy epitomizes the “short but not small” maxim. His lower body is incredibly strong and athletic, and after joining the Twins (certainly when you compare his swing to the 2023 version at Coastal), Eeles was hiting from a deeper courch that took better advantage of his burly trunk. The way he’s able to adjust his lower body to help move the bat around the zone (especially against low pitches) is very exciting. There’s some risk that his hit tool bottoms out a bit against big league velocity because Eeles’ swing is a little long, but I think that’s countered by a super compact body that allows him to push the ball just inside the third base and left field line.
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| 1:05 |
: Do Eeles’ surface-level minor league numbers need to be contextualized because of his age and the hitting environment at St. Paul? Yes. Readers should not expect Eeles to hit for the kind of power he did in the 2024 minor leagues. His contact and hard-hit rates (the latter of which is more of an isolated variable) are in line with that of a Brice Turang, or a more patient Mauricio Dubón. That’s not quite enough impact to call Eeles a foundational everyday second baseman (and he isn’t nearly as good a defender as Turang), but it is enough to consider him a second division regular there.
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| 1:06 |
: If I felt better about him at SS he would have just been on there
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| 1:06 |
: Craig Yoho?
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| 1:06 |
: Fun reliever
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| 1:07 |
: Ridiculous changeup and sweeper, below avg fastball
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| 1:07 |
: I know the O’s list is coming soon, but can I get your quick and dirty on pitcher Nestor German? I have dreams of him terrorizing NYY fans on the mound in Yankee stadium.
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| 1:07 |
: Every time I see his name I think of the scene in movie within PeeWee’s Big Adventure where his voice is over-dubbed. “Paging Nestor German”
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| 1:09 |
: Big tall-and-fall delivery guy with 6-foot-7 release ht, sits about 93..love the way the slider plays against LH and RH, great back foot angle and finish, commands it, curveball is more of an in-zone strike stealer.. I dig him, one plus pitch, other stuff is about avg, solid member of the big league staff
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| 1:10 |
: When do you think we’ll learn if MLB and ESPN come to a new deal for broadcasting games? Would NBC or CBS have any interest in broadcasting MLB games?
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| 1:10 |
: I think ESPN has kinda shown us what they think about baseball over there
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| 1:12 |
: and they’re fine moving on. Remember when they didn’t charge the generator for the draft broadcast and just went dark? They don’t care. They’ll cover college softball as much as they cover baseball now, same as they did to hockey when they were no longer a rights holder. MLB has been direct to consumer for a very long time and will be fine.
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| 1:12 |
: Anything interesting on Ching-Hsien Ko? IFA kid who kinda signed at an odd time a la Rainiel Rodriguez
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| 1:14 |
: Saw him Tuesday, physical guy. Family is Taiwanese and South African, only saw a couple at-bats but can see why they were interested in him. Power corner OF type
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| 1:14 |
: How close was Eduardo Quintero to remaining on the top 100?
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| 1:14 |
: Wish the CF D looked better at Rancho, that was all
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| 1:14 |
: He homered for me Tuesday, was def in the weight room this offseason
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| 1:14 |
: Not having anything to do with results or future projection, who is your favorite prospect right now?
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| 1:14 |
: Friggin Alfredo Duno
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| 1:14 |
: Ooops I’m way over my time.
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| 1:14 |
: Okay yall, great chat this week
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| 1:15 |
: I’m outta here. Tigers list is next, then Pirates, Orioles and Jays. Mwah Mwah Mwah, might not have a chat next week so I can run around to as many Breakouts as humanly possible. I’ll ask Meg to post something if that’s the case. bye bye
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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
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