Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/12

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from lovely Tempe and welcome to the new chat day. Let’s begin.

ChiSox2020: Thoughts on Dane Dunning?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he’s going to be a league-average starter.

Bubbles Depot: I know it is incredibly early but is Juan Soto poised to be the Ronald Acuña of this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think the tools are on that level but could see him being a low-variance 60 by the end of the year like Kyle Tucker became last year.

Joe: Thoughts on Malique Ziegler? He’s had a good start to the season

Eric A Longenhagen: Kind  of interesting but more bench OF prospect for me.

Joe: Hear any early reports on any pitchers who may have taken a big step forward in velocity or offspeed pitches?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jose Soriano, Mitch White’s velocity is back up, looks like Edward Cabrera is already throwing harder, Griffin Canning has been 93+ all spring, and touching 96-97 regularly…

Eric A Longenhagen: Trying to think of more….

Eric A Longenhagen: Bryan Mata has been more 90-94 than 88-92

Eric A Longenhagen: Also literally just got a text that Dustin May is touching 97 today, so him too perhaps

Eric A Longenhagen: Luzardo

Eric A Longenhagen: Been a pretty good spring

Pete: Do you think that Oakland will take a high upside lottery ticket prospect at 10 like they did with Beck last year? If so, who would fit into this category?

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess it’s possible but Beck was more polarizing than any of the guys I could see them picking (like Libby or McClanahan, who have huge upside but everyone likes them, not everyone liked Beck). I guess the guy who’s like that this year is Connor Scott? Just because he was a toolsy, early-spring pop up guy.

Mertz: How confident are you in Yusniel Diaz’ floor?  What kind of player do you think he will be?  .300 and 20 HR?

Eric A Longenhagen: .300 with 20 bombs is 70 hit, 50 power. Diaz is more of an average regular for me, both tools in the 50/55 range and he’s not as explosive an athlete as people think.

Redbeard: Best prospect that has a realistic chance to fall to the Pirates at #10

Eric A Longenhagen: Any of the high school arms might look like they should have gone top 3 a year from now. Carter Stewart has the monster spin rate and that’s what Baz had last year. But Pittsburgh also likes big, athletic guys and Stewart is one of those. Rocker, Hankins is more that type.

Joe: Worried about Monte Harrison?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, only played half a season in Hi-A last year so the assignment was aggressive and it has literally been a week.

Joe: Were you a fan of Max Kepler? What do you think his upside is?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, think he’s a 50

Matt Barnes: Taillon finally arriving?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looks that way. Still think his fastball plays closer to average but that curveball is filth.

Drew: Is Canning going to get bumped up soon after looking real good in his first couple starts? Has he exceeded or met expectations so far (I know SSS)

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and this is a good time to remind chat that Small Sample Size applies more to on-paper results than it does things  like stuff/tools. If Max Scherzer were 86-90 tomorrow, we’d all appropriately freak out, not say ‘small sample size, he’s fine’.

snood: Lakewood’s Ramon Rosso struck out 12 guys yesterday. A-ball fluke or is he someone worth watching?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s worth watching. 6-4, good frame, low 3/4s slot, loose but doesn’t repeat. 90-93 with natural cut, can spin a slider.

FH: Have you seen or heard anything interesting out of the Giants extended spring training group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not yet. Saw some of their guys yesterday (Giants Orange) but nobody really jumped out. They have two teams and it’s going to be tough to track guys like Gregory Santos because it looks like their pitching situation is fluid between the two rosters. Giants Black has Canario, so that’s who I hope to keep seeing.

Mertz: Your thoughts on the following OFs: Marcus Wilson, Daniel Johnson, or Jhailyn Ortiz?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz has the most offensive upside because of the power but I don’t thihnk he’s an OF. Johnson has more power than Wilson but WIlson’s a better all-around ballplayer.

Dan: Do you think that the Cubs failed victim to all the public talk about how they haven’t be able to draft and develop pitchers? They didn’t really seem to draft the best player available last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, the Chicago Cubs don’t care what the public thinks or says about baseball ops. I agree it’s clear this is not just a BPA strategy, but I get it. The big club has a young core of hitters and is more likely to need pitching sooner than anything else.

Eric A Longenhagen: And they’re doing well with position prospects in Latin America, so the system isn’t barren of hitters.

paul: Jaseel De La Cruz off to a great start. Is he someone to keep an eye on? What makes him stnad out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have seen him and can’t believe he’s throwing this many strikes. Low-90s, good breaking ball. One of the strangest deliveries I’ve seen. I’ll try to get video online today or tomorrow, check the Youtube page.

Matt: Kiley mentioned some NL West prospect with a Julio Jones comp. Any guess who that is?

Eric A Longenhagen: …..maybe….

Emilio Estevez: I know we’re two weeks into the season and he only turns 23 in May, but what should White Sox fans look for as signs of Moncada taking strides? Is there any link between slower development and being a switch hitter? Again, I recognize he’s still super young.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the bat control is just worse than we thought. Worse than I thought, anyway.

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’ll be good, but it’s a thing he can’t do that I overlooked.

Do you Belieb in Miracles?: Kiley said that Shane Bieber is a high 45 FV. Do you Agree?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Mark: Do you see Freddy Peralta as a Lucchesi-type (solid stuff, good deception, fares well early on, but hitters adjust after a few times through the league)? Think he sticks as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Peralta is weird. Might be more Yusmeiro Petit than a true starter but still think he’s a valuable big leaguer.

Andy: In your opinion, is Mitch Keller ready for a call up this summer?  Does it make sense for Pittsburgh to see a 10-15 game sample from him in the majors or let him see out the season in AAA?

Eric A Longenhagen: He could get by in the Majors on fastball/fastball command/curveball right now, but needs a better third pitch. If Pittsburgh is competitive mid-summer and he’s suddenly one of their five best guys, you just bring him up no matter where the third pitch is at. Until then, let him marinate.

Jason: Have you happened to see Yonny Chirinos of the Rays at all this season? I don’t know what your guy’s grades for him was this offseason, but most put 50/55’s on his fast and change/split yet those 2 pitches have looked like a grade higher or so to me, definitely the split. Has his stuff taken a step up this season, or am I just over rating it based on his first time through the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, actually just finished the Rays write up before the chat. We like him. 92-94 with sink, 55 slider, 55 command, 50 change. It’s a backend starter/multi-inning arm for us. Essentially how they’re using him we think suits him. Benefited from a mechanical tweak a couple years ago, front side really gets clear now and it’s helped him locate better.

The Old Buccaneer: Bradenton seems much shorter on top prospects this year compared to last. As there anyone lower in the Pittsburgh pipeline that we can hope to see later this summer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, if Ogle or MacGregor throw well in Low-A they’d be good to see. Lots of hitters on WV, Lolo Sanchez the bets of them and probably the most advanced. Maybe one of the college hitters from last year’s draft gets there. Busby, Stafford.

Kyle: What do you think about dropping McMahon for Franchy Cordero in a keeper league where there is not many reserve spots to “stash” a guy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I guess I’d do it. If Franchy hits he’s a monster.

Spicy boy: Any truth to Reese McGuire’s power last year? Small sample, but seems like he’d be a guy if he could hit like that in the majors

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, it’s better but we still have him profiling as a backup.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: If the stats are to be believed, Myles Straw has swung and missed once this season. That is sustainable, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wait, as in he’s struck out once or only swung and missed a single pitch?

Mark: Let’s say that over the course of this year, Matuella shows similar stuff compared to what he has in the past and makes typical improvements as a 23 year old would. Does he move into the top 100 just by being a season removed from injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, even if the changeup is still fringey if he’s 93-97 with two plus breaking balls and strikes we’d have to talk about it

GPT: What would you consider a successful season for Heliot Ramos?

Eric A Longenhagen: A K% under 30% or so much power we don’t care.

PHM: Approximately many major leaguers have the offensive abilities that Guerrero Jr. possesses and what are his weaknesses with the bat? Untapped power? None? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: There are some apples/oranges comparisons (like I don’t know how you compare the way Joey Votto does it to anything, or Altuve) but jsut glancing at last year’s hitters War leaderboard I got maybe 12 names deep before I started thinking Vlad is just more talented than this guy.

Hinkie: If Casey Mize and Nick Madrigal go 1 and 2, who would you draft at 1-3 if you were the Phillies ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bohm

Hans Gruber: Seuly Matias is off to a hot start. If he keeps hitting, what is his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stats like what Justin Upton has done the last half decade

Brett: Am I crazy to think Mike Gerber will be the next Kole Calhoun? No one tool that jumps out but solid in all areas and gets over-looked due to being an older prospect without much pedigree. He’s raked at every level and also plays a plus CF, still barely gets any recognition though due to his age I assume

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree. He’s at least the bigger half of a platoon and I think he’s good enough defensively that you start him against lefties and just hit him 7-8-9 somewhere

erghammer: Michael Chavis just got dinged for a controlled substance violation. What is the bigger issue for his prospect status? (1) His performance to date may have been a mirage because of the drugs; (2) Losing a half a season of development time. Thanks for the chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: 1

Cards Fan: If you were ranking only catching prospects, would Andrew Knizner make the top-10?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oooh, good question.

Eric A Longenhagen: There should really be a sortable board on this site with every prospect we’ve written up so we can look at this stuff instantaneously. For now though…

Eric A Longenhagen: No, not there yet, but he’s closer than you think and I really like him

Buff: Any news on Keston Hiura? First DHing because of elbow soreness, now not playing. Trying to rest his elbow again, or heading for surgery?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have no news on this front, sorry.

Dave: Anyone interesting down on the farm that could get a shot at playing time in Texas with the Andrus injury?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just think you let Profar, Robinson and Kiner-Falefah play more.

Vinbaka: Tapia has four homers in seven games. Is the power surge real? What’s his FV these days?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obviously the PCL does things to stats that we should be careful not to overlook. But he did look better this spring than he did last year when I saw him and I have him ahead of Dahl.

Mike: So … last week you said you were moving from Tuesdays to break up your chats from Kiley McDaniel’s chats.  Instead of Tuesday and Wednesdays, you guys are now chatting Wednesday and Thursdays … how exactly is that breaking up your chats?

Eric A Longenhagen: Less about breaking Kiley and I up and more about only having one day where, because of the kind of questions we get asked (almost exclusively prospect stuff), there’s not much big league talk on the site. Jay chat’s today, too, so that issue is solved.

Eric A Longenhagen: And by the way, you can ask me about anything, not just prospect stuff, if you want.

Alex: With the recent trend of back end starters converting to relief for their stuff to play up, is there any risk of the mid/back end starters disappearing? Resulting in 1s/2s then bullpen games for rotation spots 3/4/5.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, in general I think the pitching landscape looks much different in 5 years.

Eric A Longenhagen: And then we’ll get the ‘Is Stretching Out Your Starter The New Market Inefficiency?” article titles

James: Do the astros have any legit catching prospects or will they have to look outside the organization next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Watch Stassi take the job

Virus: Is Marcus Wilson a top 100 prospect this time next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bet he’s still a 45

Bob: All Colton Welker has done since he turned pro is hit like crazy. Have analysts undersold his offensive upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: No I just think there’s trepidation because not everyone think he’s stays at third

Bob: Joey Lucchesi is off to a very nice start in MLB. Do you think the funkiness in his delivery gets him up to #3 starter potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, we had him on the 100 as a near-ready #4

Big Cheese: Thoughts on Zach Jackson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff’s good but probably relief

Eric A Longenhagen: like, middle relief

Hinkie: Please rank Ryan Rolison, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan.

Eric A Longenhagen: Inverse of you order

Mike D : Do you see Shed Long moving up in top 100 prospect lists this season or will he fade into obscurity?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of those guys where you have to remember he starts slow in places and always adjusts. He’s done it a bunch of times. I bet he does it again. If he hits for enough power, sure he could be on at some point.

James: Who are the Indians targeting with their sixth round pick? 🙂

Eric A Longenhagen: Pick a college changeup guy, any college changeup guy. Or a really young high schooler.

KS: I know it’s early, but any buzz/feedback on Jose Israel Garcia?

Eric A Longenhagen: Disconcertingly skinny. The Cuban guys deserve tie to get their feet under them for a lot of different reasons so no reason to worry yet. But it might be rough going for a while.

Jeremiah: Does Devers have the 30 HR bat that Red Sox fans are assuming he has? Or is he more so a 50 2Bs 20-25 HR guy?

Eric A Longenhagen: More of the latter due to the bat path

Andy: Should I continue to pay attention to Michael Baumann?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, both of them.

Lawrence: What’s your favorite thing about Jakob Junis? Anything pique your interest?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maxes out pretty mediocre stuff. Fun to watch.

Peter Alonso: Why am I so good?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anyone wanna posit a guess as to why Dom Smith’s weight was such a scary thing to Mets fans and yet Alonso’s barely gets mentioned?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s good, a bunch of teams think he’s a future 50.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: MJ Melendez with 2 triples yesterday. Just hot out of the gate, or any positive offensive reports?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, swing is better and more athletic than it was last year and I liked him a lot last year.

Eric: are there any royals pitching prospects to be excited about? foster griffin maybe, staumont now that he’s a reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Any update on Chris Paddack rehab?

Eric A Longenhagen: Know he threw yesterday but not sure how he looked. Baez threw in an intrasquad today. Or was supposed to. But I’m here because I love you.

Bird Man: Juan Soto is a better prospect than Victor Robles, change my mind.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Internet!

Dave: If more and more pitchers are going to start pitching backwards, do scouts need to completely rethink the importance to fastballs to overall future value grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think maybe you reflect on how you grade command

John S: Surprised the Padres sent Gore to full season ball in Indiana right out the gate? It’s like 20 degrees there at the moment

Eric A Longenhagen: That kid is going to shove anyway

Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: How much of projecting on a changeup is based on arm speed and athleticism? Seems like it would be incredibly hard to fathom if and when a guy finds the right grip out of the multitude ways to throw that pitch

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, there are better/worse ways to break that stuff down and try to develop a pitch from an instruction standpoint (teams using Rapsodo, Edgetronic, etc) but generally the loose, athletic, quick armed guys take to adjustment better and have built-in advantage because the arm speed means the change has a better chance of looking like a fastball out of the hand.

P2F: Thanks for taking my question, Eric. Are you able to supply some scout-y notes on Tobias Myers, please? I know he is a guy that you and Kiley like. How is his stuff? Realistic ceiling? Thanks in advance.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s his capsule for the Rays list, which will be on the site tomorrow or Monday if Carson is overrun.:

Eric A Longenhagen: Myers was acquired from Baltimore ahead of the 2017 trade deadline for Tim Beckham. He was a two-way player in high school who some teams preferred at shortstop, but early-career indications are that Baltimore was correct to stick him on the mound as Myers dominated the New York Penn League last year ahead of the trade and has already grown into mid-rotation stuff. Myers sits 92-94, touches 97, and it plays up due to good extension. His curveball and changeup each flash plus but are closer to average right now but they both project due to Myers’ athleticism. He’s a 6-foot righty but his vertical arm slot creates downhill plane on his pitches and he’s sturdily built, so his size is not concerning. He has mid-rotation upside and will pitch in full-season ball as a teenager all year.

Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch: Ok so if your prospect writer super duo were dubbed K Mac and Long John, who says no? I’m guessing it sure as hell wouldn’t be you

Eric A Longenhagen: McDongenhagen was already rejected, internally. We refuse to negotiate and tabled talks.

Jake: The Royals and Indians have multiple comp picks. Can they “buy” a player by making an over slot deal that makes him “fall” to them? How does this play out on draft day?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are a lot of different ways to go about it, either targetting specific players (like Houston with Daz) or just planning for a group of those types of players to be around (like Atlanta with Wentz) when you make you sandwich round or second round pick. There’s also the simbiotic financial component. If an agent knows his player can make more with you at pick 42 than he can with a team with a smaller pool at pick 25, he’ll float a scary number to try to get his kid to you.

Dan: What is Mitch White’s velo? Seems to me last year’s injuries weren’t arm-related, so didn’t know it had been down.

Eric A Longenhagen: Was 88-92 for me last fall. 93-96 today.

Jacob: Do you believe that Eierman has better offensive tools than Turang? Does he have the best combination of offensive tools of any SS in the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and yes

Padres 2021 WS Champs: Is Franchy just the west coast Michael A Taylor?

Eric A Longenhagen: Franchy’s issues are a little more extreme

Farhan: Best strictly relief prospect in the Dodgers org?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would have said Santana last year but his changeup has looked better this spring and I give him a better chance to start now. It’s probably Sheff now.

Joe : Have you seen or heard anything interesting out of the Brewers extended spring training group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think I’m headed there tomorrow

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’m spent. Thanks for coming. See you next Thursday.