Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/12/18

11:59
Jay Jaffe: Howdy folks, and welcome to the two-week mark of the 2018 season as well as my usual Thursday Chat, which hasn’t been as usual as intended lately. Apologies on that, and let’s get to it…

12:00
Schoop of Ice Cream: Hanley predicted he’d go 30/30 preseason and everyone laughed. He’s now got 2 HR including the second hardest hit ball of the season, and 3 SB. What’s your updated % he hits those numbers

12:01
Jay Jaffe: He’s looked very good at the plate so far, and obviously is putting up the numbers in the early going. But as it always does, with Ramirez it comes down to health and availability. Color me skeptical, particularly on the steals. I’ll say he’s up to 10% probability now.

12:01
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How will the addition of bullpen carts affect my favorite part of baseball, when the ‘pens halfheartedly jogging out to brawls that will be over by the time they get there?

12:02
Jay Jaffe: Relievers who won’t get their usual jogging in will be more compelled to exert extra effort when joining the scrum. We’ll see some Todd Coffey-like sprints, which can only be good for baseball.

12:02
Coz: Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!

12:03
Jay Jaffe: Editor willing, my pending-publication analysis of Gary Sanchez’s early struggles and Wednesday breakout will be accompanied by an ample serving of Sox-Yanks brawl highlights

12:03
Jay Jaffe: Alas, I’m not sure who is picking up the baton on the Rockies-Padres donnybrook.

12:04
v2micca: In order to take their legal claim seriously, can we now require Jeter to attempt to speak with a British accent in all future public interviews?

12:05
Jay Jaffe: I learned a good fake British accent (or multiple ones) by watching old episodes of Monty Python’s Flying Circus. I can’t imagine anyone in baseball less likely to do the same than Jeter.

12:06
George Springer: Did my last year’s performance trick alot of people into buying high this year, or can I repeat last year’s numbers??

12:08
Jay Jaffe: Springer set a career high with 34 homers last year, but his wRC+ progression – 129, 133, 125, 140 from 2014-17 — suggests he’s been a damn good hitter since he reached the majors. I see no reason why that won’t continue.

12:09
Josh R: Don’t the Angels have to start letting Ohtani hit in the games he pitches?  Heaven forbid they just play by NL style rules once a week and use pinch hitters once Ohtani is out of the game.

12:10
Jay Jaffe: it certainly seems like it’s past time to sit down and have The Talk with Albert Pujols about Where At-Bats Come From, doesn’t it? Yes, I’d bat Ohtani on the days he pitches, and use Pujols or somebody else to pinch-hit for him and subsequent pitchers because I do think the difference in performance between Ohtani and Pujols (or any other DH) is significant.

12:11
Korey Cluber: Do you enjoy brawls or do you want to see the league crack down on them?

12:14
Jay Jaffe: I’m conflicted. On the one hand, nothing in sports  — not just baseball, which undeniably has some especially stupid aspects to it — turns me off like misguided machismo, and I don’t ever want to see anyone get hurt, especially in an extracurricular scrum. On the other hand, most brawls are quite entertaining, and I will confess to regular viewings of the 1998 Yankees-Orioles epic, which I have not only bookmarked on YouTube but saved to my personal computer.

12:15
Jay Jaffe: The brawls themselves don’t bother me as much as pitchers intentionally hitting batters. Within the context of these brawls, most punches aren’t going to do more than wound somebody’s pride. A 90-something mph projectile is a far more dangerous weapon.

12:16
Poised: I’ve never seen someone so angry on a baseball field than Arenado yesterday

12:17
Jay Jaffe: George Brett in the Pine Tar incident comes to mind https://www.mlb.com/video/7-24-83-the-pine-tar-incident/c-3180386

12:17
v2micca: Why hasn’t the MLB adopted NBA-styled rules that penalize any player that leaves the bench during an on field altercation?  This seems like a very logical rule to curtail bench clearing brawls.

12:19
Jay Jaffe: It does, and yet you may have observed that the interested parties, namely the players’ union and the commissioners, do not always abide by what you and I would call logic. Then again, if you got one batter and at most three baserunners and two over-aged base coaches versus nine players on the other side, one of them already wearing armor, that hardly constitutes a fair fight.

12:20
Lunar verLander: Am I the only one who is morbidly interested to see what Ohtani would do if someone on his team charged the mound?

12:21
Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure clips of Mike Trout pulling an opposing player’s head clean off is the type of “Face of Baseball” marketing that the game needs.

12:21
Matthew: Do you see anything in Evan Longoria’s year-to-date that should concern Giants fans?

12:22
Jay Jaffe: Along with Paul Goldschmidt and Gary Sanchez, whom I’ve written about in the past two days, Longoria is a candidate for a closer look, but I’m probably going to explore a few other ideas before I get to that. What I’ve seen has been ugly, but I haven’t squinted at the small samples yet.

12:23
v2micca: Small Sample Size bold prediction.  The NL East will be competitive this year and produce a wildcard team.

12:26
Sloth: Any correlation between hot starts and WS appearances? Or is the season so long that everything tends to even out?

12:28
Jay Jaffe: Given the Mets’ start, that seems quite likely. Of the 23 post-1900 teams to start the season 10-1, eight of them made the playoffs including the A’s in the 1981 split season. Four of them won pennants and three won World Series, but the last of those was the 1984 Tigers. The current playoff format will help a hot-starting team get to October, but the format of the playoffs makes it nearly impossible to capitalize on an April advantage once there.

12:28
Davy: Aren’t you glad for all the new and interesting ways Cheryl Ring has found for us to be enraged by the Marlins?

12:29
Jay Jaffe: It’s Sheryl Ring, and yes. She’s got no shortage of material when it comes to the Marlins’ legal woes, which are at least as entertaining as their on-field product.

12:30
Colin: Who ends up with more HR+SB’s on the season Acuna or Albies ?

12:30
Jay Jaffe: I think it will be close, but I’ll go with Albies, who’s already in the majors and ha had time to acclimate and crack four homers (plus one steal).

12:31
Seff Jullivan: Will MLB ever move to a player owned model?  Maybe the PA can match each purchase price as each team comes up for sale. The owners get their money on the sale and the players don’t have to deal with any more nonsense.

12:32
Jay Jaffe: Not. Gonna. Happen. Do you think any of the 30 owners/ownership groups is going to kill the geese who enjoy an antitrust exemption as they continue to lay golden eggs?

12:32
ATL: Is Buxton trying to hit the ball on the ground more while everyone else is getting it in the air? Or is it just bad contact?

12:33
Jay Jaffe: I haven’t looked closely, but my God, the man appears constitutionally incapable of producing in April. When I checked yesterday, he had a career 17 wRC+ in March/April.

12:34
Larry: I’m not sure this is the proper place for this, but I can’t find an option on your site for sending an email.  I believe I’ve found a bug in your leaderboard query.  When you run a hitting query that specifies batter handedness, the total for runs and home runs comes up as the same number.  It appears the home run total is repeating in both columns.  This doesn’t happen if the spec is pitcher handedness.

12:35
Jay Jaffe: I’ve notified the authorities, Larry. Not the kind that will come harass you and ask if this is your homework, but the kind that will investigate your report of a technical glitch on our end. Thanks

12:35
Evan: Why is it only in baseball that we break out words like donnybrook, fracas, and brew-ha-ha (Sp?). Personally, I love it.

12:37
Jay Jaffe: Brouhaha. Also melee, ruckus, rumpus, dustup, throwdown, beatdown… it’s good to exercise the vocabulary in creative ways even if you don’t have an SAT test upcoming.

12:37
Rstar1725: Ronald Acuna, W. Calhoun and others were talked about a lot leading up to the season. Not much talk about Gleyber Torres. Though he’s only had 60ish games above AA, what is a realistic time frame, if any, for a call up.

12:39
Jay Jaffe: Torres’ 2017-ending Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow and his adaptation to second base have slowed his progress a bit. My guess is that barring further injuries to the big club, he’s looking at a June callup, not necessarily attuned to the Super Two deadline because the Yankees don’t really care. But with Drury, Walker, Torreyes, Wade and Andujar all on hand, the team has plenty of players for second and third base until he’s clearly ready.

12:42
Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: I keep hearing people say that Kimbrel is throwing up some red flags. Do you see or know of any because I can’t really see them. Thanks!

12:45
Jay Jaffe: As Jeff Zimmerman observed, his velocity is down.

While owners have focused on Kenley Jansen’s velocity issues, Craig Kimbrel’s velo started low and continues to hea… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…
10 Apr 2018

I have no idea whether there’s a physical or mechanical explanation, but his infant daughter’s recent heart surgery is a factor I wouldn’t overlook. Some things are far more important than the difference between 95 nd 98 mph.

12:46
Jay Jaffe:

Should there be more polls in Jay Jaffe’s chats?

Why? (36.6% | 52 votes)
 
Meh (63.3% | 90 votes)
 

Total Votes: 142
12:46
Tat: You should do a poll about something, no one ever does polls anymore in chats

12:46
Jay Jaffe: First time doing that, sorry for the technical glitch.

12:46
Bort: If Wheeler keeps pitching the way he does, can the Mets really send him down when Vargas comes back?

12:48
Jay Jaffe: Fans of every team tend to count chickens before they hatch. If the Mets’ recent history in keeping pitchers healthy has taught you anything, it should be about the folly of worrying about who goes to the bullpen or Triple A at that magical moment when the team has six starters. this stuff has a gruesome way of sorting itself out.

12:48
Scott: It’s 11 games in and Joey Votto only has two walks. Should we be concerned?

12:49
Jay Jaffe: Another guy who’s worth a closer look, but for the moment (shrug emoji). Goldschmidt, Votto and the now-injured Anthony Rizzo — the three best first basemen in the NL over the past few years in terms of both wRC+ and WAR (with Freddie Freeman a close fourth) are all off to dreadful starts.

12:50
Sean: Paul Goldschmidt had four 400+ ft hits against the Giants – a double, a triple, and two long home runs. I think he’s back. Pretty much exactly after you wrote your post.

12:51
Jay Jaffe: It’s like the Jonah Keri injury curse, but for positive regression. For the sake of my 19-month-old daughter’s college tuition, it would be great if I could monetize this.

12:51
Guest: Do you think Matt Davidson’s revamped plate discipline is at all sustainable enough to make him a decent player? He’s done a great job laying off pitches out of the zone and cutting down his swing and misses so far

12:55
Jay Jaffe: I’d love to give you all definitive notes about this player or that one’s plate discipline to date relative to past years, but a) it’s early and b) I haven’t had time to investigate all of these guys and c) really, it’s early.

Davidson was once a heralded prospect. I covered the 2013 All-Star Futures Game at Citi Field, where he won MVP honors. He’s always had a capacity for strikeouts (164 and 191 at Triple A in 2014-15) but never the kind of thing that would produce a 165 K/19 BB ratio, as happened last year in the majors. There’s really nowhere to go from there but up or to an indy league. So far, he’s tending towards the former. Will he sustain that? I’ll go with a hard maybe.

12:56
Andrew: By the end of the month are the Angels in the discussion for the best team in baseball? I think they would have to stomp on the Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

12:57
Jay Jaffe: Let’s hold our horses until we see how they do against the aforemetioned teams, given that we’re not even halfway through April.

12:57
Jkim: Hot starts? – Dodgers started the season last year at 10-12 and still went to the WS. (yeah yeah yeah sample size of 1) but I odn’t think it matters

12:58
Jay Jaffe: Having studied this on an annual basis, I can tell you that 10-12 doesn’t move the needle much. It’s the outliers, like 2-7 or 3-9, where few teams come back from. Twitter search my account (@jay_jaffe) and Cardinals 3-9 for the ridicule I took in April and the way that one turned out

12:59
Gilbert Grape: Realistic Prediction for a Harper free agent contract?

1:00
Jay Jaffe: 10 years, $350 million, with multiple opt outs that make it highly unlikely he completes the term.

1:00
brad: Jay, Looking at the last few, but maybe more, years, at the SP in the minors who are the cant miss aces, and then looking at MLB at the actual aces, I seem to find something odd.  The cant miss minors SP seem to get hurt at a very high rate, Ie Urias, Bundy, Reyes, Puk, and a lot of the real life aces, were not top prospects, ie Kluber, Keuchel DeGrom, So it seems like we have more information than ever, but  still don’t know a lot.

1:05
Jay Jaffe: in some ways, TISNSTAAP (There Is Still No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect), but we have more information than ever in terms of being able to quantify pitches’ velocity and movement and look for comparables that may be less obvious than what meets the eye.

The big problem is that some pitchers are just too good for their own still-developing bodies’ good, and the tendency of teams to exploit that, particularly at the amateur level, where the stakes are geared towards the short term, is what causes a great deal of damage. And on the flip side, pitchers tend to develop in nonlinear fashion— the effects of a mechanical change or the addition/improvement of a new pitch can have an outsized impact on performance.

In total, stuff and physical projection are worth noting, as is the capacity of pitchers to learn at the big league level, but our dark-ages ability to keep them healthy continues to cloud the matter.

1:05
John S: Should pitchers who throw behind batters to send a message be treated differently than those who actually hit the batter?

1:06
Jay Jaffe: Under Commissioner Jaffe, no. I’d suspend ’em all.

1:06
Turgid: Have you been to that axe throwing bar in gowanus?

1:07
Jay Jaffe: No. I’m not sure my Hamburger Shoulder (2003 SLAP surgery) can withstand such excitement, nor do I have the proper goatee to gain admission to such an establishment.

1:07
Slapshot: Is Bartolo Colon your favorite active player to write about?

1:07
Jay Jaffe: If he’s not the single most favorite, he’s clearly in the top five.

1:08
Yadier Molina: Am I a hall-of-famer?

1:08
Turgid: That 98 fight was a good one. What was the one where Strawberry did a flying ninja kick into the dugout?

1:08
Jay Jaffe: That was the one

1:08
Mountie Votto: Thoughts on Bryan Price? Votto gave him the vote of confidence, but some of his decisions have been baffling so far this season

1:09
Jay Jaffe: I have been predicting the firing of Bryan Price on an annual basis since he took over the job, which makes me at least 0-for-4. It’s time to throw up my hands and admit that I have no idea the standards by which the Reds judge him.

1:10
Tat: Didi has cut his Swing % by 10% this year, is this the kind of change that sticks or no?

1:12
Jay Jaffe: according to my homework assignment from years past, the 50 PA mark is where Swing % tends to stabilize, and he’s at 51 PA, so let’s just say that it’s possible that this is something real. Having said that, the decision on which pitches to swing at us a conscious one to a much greater degree than many other stats we track, and if Gregorius’ performance takes a turn for the worse, he may be tempted to revert to his old ways.

1:12
Ozzie’s Hair: Can fangraphs start keeping a statistic of how many times a batter/baserunner loses his helmet while running the bases?  It would be just another great excuse to revel in how much fun it is to watch Albies play.

1:13
Jay Jaffe: He’s got work to do to unseat the Helmet Shedding King, Eduardo Nunez

1:14
Cal: Who’s your favorite prospect that’s likely to see the bigs by June?

1:14
Jay Jaffe: Acuña and Torres.

1:15
Ben: Do you think teams reluctance of using starters for the third time through the order is the reason why relievers are seeing a higher percentage of innings and how much do you think this will continue to rise?

1:16
Jay Jaffe: I think it’s the other way around: relievers working short stints are able to throw harder than starters, which is part of what creates the advantage they have in the first encounter with hitters. The gap between that and starters’ performance the third time through the order has led more teams to go to their bullpens early, hence a higher % of innings.

1:17
Asher: Also re: Gowanus axe throwing, your stache is way more Brooklyn cred than a goatee would be, you know this.

1:19
Jay Jaffe: Perhaps, at least in south Brooklyn (as opposed to Wiliamsburg/Greenpoint, where the goatee per capita rate is considerably higher). However, the additional cost of hiring a babysitter so that Emma and I can both throw axes is a deterrent, especially with an Alamo Draft House five minutes away

1:19
Neal Huntington: Is Gregory Polanco finally making the leap to the potential he has shown

1:21
Jay Jaffe: Small samples and such, but based on the previous expectations for him, his higher flyball rate and dramatic increases in exit velo and xwOBA, I’ll go with yes.

1:22
Hanley Ramirez: Looked like everyone on both sides, Red Sox and Yankees, did their best to de-escalate the situation (except for Joe Kelly and Austin of course). Kind of cool to see players step up like that in the heat of the battle and put themselves at risk to get in between everyone

1:24
Jay Jaffe: I can’t pull the GIFs right now (again, allow me to tout my forthcoming piece) but I’m not so sure CC Sabathia was de-escalating the situation, and while Aaron Judge may have had peace-making in mind, his headlock did help Austin get a couple shots in at Kelly. But yes, for the most part, it seems like Kelly and Austin were by far the worst offenders.

1:24
Mountie Votto: Is it time to look at Homer Bailey as a twice-through-the-lineup pitcher? He’s been lights-out the first two times through, then like clockwork is getting lit up

1:26
Jay Jaffe: If I’m running the Reds, the time to look at Homer Bailey, Expensive Reliever may soon be nigh, but for the moment, with so little at stake, they can afford to start him.

1:26
Jack: Hadn’t read your Yadi Molina article, thanks! Good read. Usually with borderline HOF cases I’m the guy who’s saying, “Yeah…..but look at the numbers.” With Molina I find myself as the guy saying, “Yeah…..but he’s SO good!”

1:27
Jay Jaffe: Catcher evaluation is tricky because our efforts to quantify one’s effect on a pitching staff, while improved by framing metrics, are still rather rudimentary. I’ve predicted before that Molina will be one of the most polarizing Hall candidates of the 21st century, taking the baton from Jack Morris and Omar Vizquel.

1:27
Justin: But scale of 1 to 10, how scared would you be to see CC, Stanton and Judge running at you? (Even though they were trying to break it up)

1:28
Jay Jaffe: 37

1:28
Matt: I joined late and am just reading through the start of your chat. I just want to express how much I enjoyed your comment regarding Pujols, and “The Talk” regarding “where at-bats comes from”. Well played.

1:28
Jay Jaffe: Just looking for a pitch that I could hit, and I didn’t miss it. Thanks.

1:30
Play Ball: Which team isn’t going to make the playoffs this year but will have what you would label a successful season?

1:30
Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with the Phillies on that one. .500ish with positive steps for their young core.

1:31
Razor Ramon: Hi, Jay. What are your thoughts on Skaggs? He looks good so far, but is he for real? And how would he rank with other mid-tier guys like Faria and Pivetta? Thanks.

1:34
Jay Jaffe: Tyler Skaggs’ next 20-start season in the big leagues will be his first; he debuted in 2014. I’m always a bit wary of him because of that track record, but I’m much less familiar with the other guys at this point. Skaggs’ swinging strike rate is way up (12.7% vs 8.7% career), which merits a closer look, at the very least.

1:34
Scot: What would it take to get Brandon Nimmo to the Yankees? Is Clint Frazier a over pay?

1:35
Jay Jaffe: The Yankees are well stocked with outfielders, including the returning Aaron Hicks, the still-injured Jacoby Ellsbury, and Frazier, so I don’t see there being any chance of such a trade. The two teams generally don’t deal with each other (the recent Mazzili Jr. trade notwithstanding)

1:37
Call Me Maybin: How legit is Nick Pivetta?

1:38
Jay Jaffe: it’s only 3 starts, but his walk rate way down, groundball rate up, strikeout rate and swinging strike rate both up as well. That seems like a recipe for success if he can sustain it particularly relative to last year’s 6+ ERA and 4.87  FIP. Can he sustain it? Hell if I know.

1:39
Wilmer Flores: Have you found that fringe guys who play their whole careers with one team or at least the majority of their careers with one team have a better chance of reaching the hall of fame?

1:40
Jay Jaffe: Fringe guys don’t make the Hall of Fame. Regarding time spent with one team vs. bouncing around, the fall of the reserve clause and slow pace of committee elections limits the sample size of whatever there is to study; I’ve never really taken a look.

1:41
Moltar: So just catching up with that Rays article where they talk about not aligning their behavior with the Yankees/Red Sox, but isn’t their real problem that they’ve done a crap job drafting and developing players over the last decade, while the Yankees and Red Sox have developed a lot of frontline players internally? That doesn’t seem like a thing really affected by their market size.

1:43
Jay Jaffe: The Rays’ drafting and development has indeed been a problem. How much of that is related to the resources they can put into scouting relative to Yanks/Red Sox is an open question.

1:43
Pinstripe Wizard: On paper, Joe Mauer has a better HOF chance than Molina, but the move to first base has to hurt his chances. Thoughts on Mauer versus Molina in terms of HOF chances?

1:45
Jay Jaffe: Mauer does very well in JAWS, has an MVP award, three batting titles (unprecedented for a catcher) and a slash-stat triple crown (also unprecedented for a catcher). Unless it’s Twins fans doing the voting, i thinK he’ll be OK.

1:47
Babe Lincoln: What were David Wright’s chances of making HOF before his spinal stenosis?

1:50
Jay Jaffe: Dial back to the end of 2013, Wright’s age-30 season, at which point he had 47.2 WAR. https://bbref.com/pi/shareit/VWwEv From that point, I certainly think the possibility was in play if he stayed healthy and productive into his late 30s. It’s a shame he didn’t.

1:50
Aussie Ozzie Ozzie: What would you put Evan Longoria’s percentage chance at winding up in the Hall of Fame at? How does the likelihood that he’ll actually be voted into the Hall of Fame compare with the likelihood that he ought to be voted in?

1:52
Jay Jaffe: 1-in-4 given the way voters have given third basemen short shrift. He’s got a long ways to go before he’s more worthy than Scott Rolen, IMO, and a lot of 1960s/70s guys to leapfrog (Allen, Boyer, Nettles, Evans, Bando) before he can be considered the best third baseman outside the Hall.

1:53
Cold in MN: Re: Mauer, I’ve never understood the flack Mauer gets from MN fans.  He was never going to be a consistent 25+ HR player.  Fans resented his massive contract yet would have cried foul if he had walked for BOS/NY

1:54
Jay Jaffe: Some of this is on Twins’ management and the way in general that owners brainwash fans into believing their team’s financial resources are far more limited than they are. Spend money around Mauer like a grown-ass baseball team instead of invoking the % of payroll his deal takes up and Twins fans would be far less cranky.

1:54
Sean: As a Diamondbacks fan, I’ve never really been able to get to a point where we could talk about having our own HoF candidate. I think it’s unlikely that Goldy gets there. Do we have much hope within the next decade or so?

1:54
Jay Jaffe: Goldy’s HOF case is one thing I didn’t get to in yesterday’s piece. Expect a look at a future date.

1:54
Cha Seung Baek: Do you think Profar can solidify himself as an everyday player since he has his shot now?

1:55
Jay Jaffe: I am praying to the Base Gods that he can. Between the injuries to Odor and Andrus, he’ll never get a better opportunity in Texas than this.

1:56
Sean: Speaking of Mauer, he seems to be rising from the dead here. Does his career have a above-average final act?

1:57
Jay Jaffe: he’s in my prayers to the Base Gods as well.

1:57
III: Why doesn’t Posada get more HOF love? Check out the WAR leaderboards – for a ten year stretch he was a top 4 catcher in every year but one. It’s not his fault Pudge and Piazza caught at the same time.

1:58
Jay Jaffe: the more we learn about catcher defense, the worse Posada looks. I characterized his framing numbers as brutal when I wrote him up last year. https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/16/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-jorge-…

1:58
Jay Jaffe: And with that, we’ve reached the end of today’s chat. Thanks for stopping by, and expect me to be back in the saddle at this time next week!





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

Comments are closed.