Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 4/3/2026

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up hosers? Good afternoon from Catasauqua, PA where I’m seeing family and baseball (mostly Nats affiliates) through next week.

Guest: Is it possible that Jefferson Rojas has gotten back on track?  True that he’s put on muscle?

Eric A Longenhagen: We didn’t think he ever got off track so much as he was a young player with an aggressive assignment last year. We had him as the top prospect in the system entering the year, 55th overall. He absolutely looks stronger, was selling out for power a little more than I liked when I saw him during the spring, though some of that was probably Breakout Game pressing.

Lord Thunder: With 17 walks in 15-plus innings including spring training, how long of a leash does Bubba Chandler have before he walks himself back to Triple-A?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wish Jared Jones were going to be ready to go sooner than mid-to-late May because there’d be a nice, natural swap there if Chandler is this wild until then. You’re seeing why we had McLean ranked first among pitchers and Chandler in the tier behind him. I’m not too worried about it, long term, athletes with this kind of arm speed tend to take a minute to reign it in. They could just let him struggle and learn on the fly and I think it’d be fine. Don’t burn an option year unless you really, really have to.

Jim: How fast should Jamie Arnold move through the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think he’s all that polished. Really struggled to throw strikes with his fastball all last year and again in my four looks at him this spring. He was the pitcher I saw most and he mostly labored. Good prospect, don’t think he deserves an arrow up on my 45 FV grade from pre-draft based on his spring look. I have him graded the same (but ranked behind)…

Jim: Can Wei-En Lin add velocity and become a mid-rotation starter?

Jim: What do you think of Kade Morris? Just a back of the rotation Paul Blackburn type with a varied arsenal, but nothing that wows you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lin needs to refine his command to be a mid-rotation starter. His fastball has the kind of ride that will allow it to thrive at 91-94, but he needs to command it to the top of the zone better, and he needs to find off-the-plate breaking ball location more consistently instead of constantly in-zone. Morris I really dig. East/west executor with multi-faceted fastball utility. Dots the slider. Super competitive guy, delivery is athletic… he’s a no. 4/5 right now.

Jubs: Happy Friday Eric! So far this season we are seeing both one of the most impressive rookie classes so far, as well as many of said rookies getting long term extensions, even before they make their Major League debut. Are there any prospects you think will join this class of well paid young phenoms?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sal Stewart strikes me as a candidate. Caleb Bonemer maybe a year from now?

War2D2: Eric! Did you get eyes on Wiggins at all when you were scoping the Cubs in Scottsdale? Has his command/control gotten any better? Also the requisite “when’s the Cubs list hitting” weekly question, sorry to be a pest. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: He was pretty wild in my lone Spring look. James and I are co-bylining Cubs. I’d expect that toward the end of April.

Tony Wroten: It seems like there’s suddenly a bit of a void of college arms behind Flora due to injuries or under performance. Anyone rising that’s not currently listed on The Board you have your eye on that be a first round arm and fill that gap?

Eric A Longenhagen: I saw the West Virginia an ASU arms last week and think they’re more round 3 and later. Cole Carlon strikes me as second round and had his worst slider of the year in that game. Overbay is good but probably not a first rounder. LJ Mercurius in high school, he might have a shot. I need to see Reddeman and the kid from Liberty (probably when they’re at NM State is my best shot) but I’m not really on Gaeckle or Rugger to that degree.

Bonnie: How much do you expect early seasons injuries to Josuar Gonzalez and Edward Florentino to affect their development this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Josuar probably hangs in AZ for most of the year now, Florentino I’m not sure, hopefully I’ll see him in Florida later this month.

Eric A Longenhagen: Florentino is arguably advanced enough to go to Fall League if they wanna give him more reps late

Guest: Any idea what the Blue Jays will do with the 250k IFA money they got and do you have any idea how much money they have left?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t, lemme see if I can get some dope on that while we chat.

Guest: What’s your thoughts on Dub Gleed?

Eric A Longenhagen: 50 hit, 40 power infielder

Old Prospector: Who are the guys you are pushing up ranks after spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Healthy DeLauter looks like he should be higher. Brody Hopkins was nails this spring, Yorger Bautista blew me away in an abbreviated look, Justin Campbell isn’t suddenly gonna be on the top 100 or anything but I saw him pitch for the first time since the Tucson Regional and he’s a real prospect again. Sirota maybe, wanna see how the contact rate trends.

JacobM: Excited to see the minor league season getting underway.  Thank you for your prospects coverage.  How long does it normally take before we can tell when prospects have made meaningful enough progress to be looked at in a more positive/negative light?  I imagine it’s easier looking at pitchers wrt stuff.

Eric A Longenhagen: Pitchers you can see changes pretty quickly, it’s just a matter of whether they’ll sustain them for 130+ innings. If a guy is up 3 ticks I think that’s enough to conclude at least some of it will stick. Hitters you want a month or two of data before you say “hey, this guy’s contact rate held after promotion to double-a, or his hard hit rate is up, his swing has changed and the batted ball profile now looks like ____”. I would side-eye anyone who is already like “Player X has an in-zone contact rate of 93% now!” even if they couch it in Small Sample caveat. Like, right. It’s a small sample. Please stop making us dumber.

Old Prospector: Thoughts on Jose Fernandez after his big debut? Will he be a reliable MLB piece this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, we’re re-evaluating. Brendan and I had pretty different opinions about his defense already. He’s the sort of athlete/body who might break late he’s yoked and could suddenly end up with big league power and play a plus or better 3B. There’s a shot he ends up replacing Arenado as the full time 3B there at some point, but he also might K a ton. Contact and power were close to big league average last year.

JD: Any news on Thomas White or reason to worry? The original report was 3-4 weeks’ recovery, but that was >4 weeks and no updates…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think I’d “worry” in a long term sense, but it would be a bummer if he missed the whole year.

Guest: Who would you say are the most talented teams in milb this yesr

Eric A Longenhagen: Cubs A ball, Pirates High-A, Guardians A, Rockies A….those are off the top, I’m sure I’m missing an Orioles and Rays affiliate that’s loaded.

Magic Morten: which of the big rookies so far is impressing you the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stewart (totally remade his body) and McGonigle (looks like a duck in water at 3B)

Sean: Dylan Jordan was reportedly sittin mid 90s the other night. Does that change his profile if that sticks?

Eric A Longenhagen: YEs

Sean: Is Cam Schlittler an ace? Or will the bully approach eventually stop working?

Eric A Longenhagen: You guys know I’m like Scrooge with the “ace” label, but that’s one where I think he actually has a shot. I wanted to pick a novel AL Cy Young guy for our staff predictions and I was deciding between him and Cease.

RAH: Not looking for this to be posted, but you and BG have said these notes are appreciated – I appreciate you! And these chats! I always look forward to them, and love getting your insight into players and league trends and whatnot. I love your podcast appearances too. Your love of talking ball comes thru for sure.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, as we continue to get traction as a duo there will be more.

Sonny: Do you think NIL money in college baseball is or will be a big enough draw to lure late 1st up the middle players to campus? This is kind of a ‘is my bias against college SS as pro prospects dated now?’ Question

Eric A Longenhagen: There have been a couple cases where the NIL money has pulled 3rd round prospects *back* to school, and once a year there might be a Chris Levonas who turns down like $3 mil to go to school, but that almost always has more to do with the money the family already has rather than what’s on the table for them at school. I think the answer to this question might change depending on the structure of the new CBA.

Jim: When should the A’s promote LDV? Is his timetable to the majors more 2026 or 2027?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let him crush Double-A, second half promotion to Vegas, late-August/September call-up to the big club so he retains rookie eligibility next year.

Insert Witty Name Here: Stat line aside, what did you see (if you watched) Painter’s first start?

Eric A Longenhagen: Commanded the whole mix. Fastball shape isn’t back. The Baby Verlander look of that fastball seems gone but he’s still gonna be good. Changeup looks better, tailing it back over the zone is a new trick for him. He’s ready to help them now, definitely one of their best five guys.

Mike: Is there something about guys like Johnathan Rodriguez that you can look at and peg them as never going to be able to make it in the majors even with good AAA numbers over multiple seasons? (Or Ryan Ward, though actually no idea if he counts, I just assume the Dodgers know what they’re doing)

Eric A Longenhagen: Triple-A slash lines are inflated by the hitting environment so you’re really just looking at the underlying data (which everyone has access to now) and the visual eval of defense and the swing (for potentially fatal flaws and holes). Rodriguez it was swing length and therefore vulnerability to MLB velo.

J: Any updated thoughts on Pedro Ramirez? He had a torrid spring and has carried that over to AAA. The underlying numbers look quite solid too. Most relevantly, the lack of power mentioned in his most recent writeup seems to have improved drastically.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nice part time 2B/3B, should play pretty consistently due to the switch-hitting, barely a platoon split. Body does look a little different, leaner and meaner than before. Still don’t think the overt physical tools to be an everyday player are there. 45 type, good player.

Alex B: Do you prefer Kruz Schoolcraft or Kash Mayfield?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kruz

Sporter: It seems we’re spoiled by the awesome crop of young MLB talent in recent years.

Eric A Longenhagen: The median baseball player is as good as ever.

Sporter: It seems we’re spoiled by the crop of young MLB talent recent years. How would you contexualize Griffin’s debut, how special might he be?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s going to be one of the best handful of players in the league once he learns to diagnose big league sliders.

Oaktown Blues: The obvious knock on Joshua Kuroda-Grauer is a lack of slugging. Do you think he has the build/tools to develop some power? He seemed stronger than I expected in spring

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely looks stronger, I was writing his blurb as chat began.

Miles Mikolas: A lot of Ryan Sloan hype this spring, are you all in as well?

Eric A Longenhagen: We had him ranked 20th entering the season. Still in to that degree.

ptkirk: Were you able to catch Josuar or Luis at spring training? Will they’re writeups update when the SF list drops

Eric A Longenhagen: More Luis Hernandez than Josuar due to his injury, probably two Josuar games and like 5 Hernandez. Luis is little but super skilled. I’m inclined to leave my pre-signing grade on him, Brendan I think wants to juice it. We’ll fight about it this month and let you know. Good player, though. Good signing.

Jim: Will Junior Perez hit enough to be a solid 4th outfielder?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll hit for enough power and play good enough defense to be that kind of piece, yes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like him more than Bolte.

Sir Nerdlington: Thanks for all you do, Eric.

Eric A Longenhagen: Welcome, I always feel like it could be more. Thanks for putting up with my schedule the last two weeks as I crammed in as much baseball and chatted on Opening Day rather than my usual Friday.

Lord Thunder: Post-prospect Noelvi Marte has had some solid stretches over the last several years, but his stock seems like it is down this spring with the Reds. Anything still there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still in, really talented contact hitter with special physicality. Did some nice stuff on defense last year even though he was early stages of OF mix. Cincy is crowded, I think he’ll be end up being a nice long-term piece for them.

Sir Nerdlington: I’m sure it’s not worth your time, but do you keep tabs on any DII or DIII guys?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bro, there are players down there. Caleb Durbin! The relevant DII and III guys tend to become known to me when they’re drafted, and then I’ll crash course on them. There have been cases in the past when I’ve run into a Joey Wendle at the field and been properly on them. The Cespedes BBQ boys tend to alert me of DIIIs when they pop up since their fingers are on the pulse of that level.

Jim: When should the A’s prospect list be posted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Next week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Tuesday or Wednesday, I have a lot of family stuff lined up this weekend and might not finish writing it until Monday.

Arcadian: How hard is it to change your angles as a hitter? Griffin seemingly did it in less than a year. Wondering how easy it will be for Kilby to do so

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it depends on the guy and how nutty his current swing is. Some guys it’s just so bad when they enter pro ball that correcting it is long-hanging fruit and they get to a viable place pretty quickly. Some guys just can’t change (Ke’Bryan Hayes for instance)

Insert Witty Name Here: “Lemme see if I can get some dope” – Well, Eric just got suspended for 80 chats.

Eric A Longenhagen: lmao here as I call Onterrio Smith for some help passing the test

Sir Nerdlington: Aside from Trajekt, what progress has been made on the hitting development side?

Eric A Longenhagen: What bat length/weight/shape works best for you? Watch the gear that the guys the Brewers acquire on the margins are using pre- and post-acquisition.

Tacoby Bellsbury: When you’re back home with the family, what is the must-have meal for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Italian Hoagie from Mario’s near the Coplay/Northampton bridge. Had one last night. Don’t order their pizza, though, it’s an above ground pool of cheese.

Big Buckston: I tried to ask this to Brendan the other day, but he said it would be better to ask you. Connor Prielipp didn’t make the top 100 this year. Any specific reason for the dropoff? He put up a career high in innings in 2025 with solid performance.

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote his blurb while we worked on the 100 even though he was a cut. Here is the unedited version: As a wild freshman at Alabama, Prielipp had the stuff — an upper-90s fastball and devastating slider — of an eventual top five pick, but he dealt with a periods of injury culminating in a Tommy John surgery that kept him out for his draft spring, save for pre-draft bullpens for scouts. Though Prielipp’s slider was arguably the best pitch in the entire 2022 draft, he came with more relief risk than most of the other college pitchers projected to go in the first two rounds, and he ultimately went in the second. He blew out again after just 6.2 pro innings in 2023 and had the internal brace style elbow surgery in the middle of that year.

Eric A Longenhagen: When he returned in 2024, Prielipp was nasty again and struck out 45% of opponents across just 23.1 innings of work. In 2025, with a few shutdown periods due to a blister and to manage his workload, Prielipp carried a 4.03 ERA (his FIP and xFIP a half run better) across 82.2 innings at Double- and Triple-A.

Eric A Longenhagen: rielipp has a nasty, late-moving slider in the 85-89 mph range that completely freezes lefties when Prielipp wants to use it in the zone. It spins at roughly 3,100 rpm and generated plus-plus miss and swinging strike rates in 2025. His changeup has improved quite a bit since Prielipp’s arm action was shortened upon return from his first surgery. It lacks big movement, but it has enough velo separation from his fastball (86-88) to keep hitters off balance, and it’s finishing in a good location more and more often. Prielipp has rare lefty velo but his heater plays down for a couple of reasons, including its movement, angle, and because Prielipp’s lack of extension deducts nearly two ticks of perceived velo from it. He has 95-97 when he wants it, but that pitch only generated an average swinging strike rate in 2025.

Eric A Longenhagen: Prielipp’s command isn’t sharp enough to mitigate these other issues, and we still don’t have a great idea how he’ll look piching a full season under a starter’s workload. Here, Prielipp is evaluated as a good five-and-dive no. 4/5 starter, with one awesome pitch and a favorable projection for the quality of his changeup.

Mike Lommler: Silly thought exercise: how many consecutive games would Delauter have needed to homer in to start the season for you to think, “f— it, he’s an 80 now”

Eric A Longenhagen: Like 15?

Darren: Any reports on TCU’s Sawyer Strosnider?   The numbers look good.  Can he handle CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Have him in RF, he struggled at ASU (against Carlon who is basically exactly right for dealing with him) in front of a lot of decision makers. Think he’s pick 17-25 or so.

Key Jangler: Any big movers in the draft so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the top handful is crystalizing as Roch, Lebron, Emerson, Lackey, Flora. Eric Booth is gonna go top ten or so and he’s the guy who I was lowest on pre-season (I hated his swing) who I’ve now come around on because the feedback is so positive. Kiley saw Bolemon recently and told me it wasn’t great, he might end up at school.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay guys, there are still a ton of great questions in the queue but I’ve been bogarting this table at Blocker’s for like two hours and need to go do some stuff around my grandmother’s house for her. I’m pretty sure I’m good to chat next Friday even though the time zone change has me a little on tilt with drive/flight times. I’ll post on Twitter and Bluesky if I have to reschedule. Enjoy the first full weekend of minor league stuff, talk soon