Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 6/13/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from dangerously hot Tempe, where I am coffee’ing at the kitchen island getting ready to work on Red Sox and Twins lists while prepping for the Combine.

Eric A Longenhagen: FOr those who missed it, please go read the Rangers list:

Eric A Longenhagen: Texas Rangers Top 45 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: And the Mariners list: Seattle Mariners Top 29 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Ken: Has Jack Perkins’ performance so far in Vegas moved the needle for you at all in terms of how you view his ability to remain a starting pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Ran into him last week as I was working on Mariners and he carved. Physicality looks like he’ll be able to handle it even if he isn’t the most efficient strike thrower. Let’s keep in mind, though, that he’s looked like this (sitting 95-96 t98, plus slider, strikes) for like five weeks, six weeks? It’s not as strong a look as if he’d been doing it since April.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’d think he doesn’t really have the tools do deal with lefties but the slider is playing against them, too.

For The Birds: Has Dylan Beavers made any real changes at AAA this year? Does he have a chance to be any more than a role player?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just glancing at the Trackman stuff, his power is up. Hard hit rate is up from 33% last year to 43% this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know if the changes are mechanical or physical without doing a video dive.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh btw, I put this together which has the rolling hit data for players captured at applicable affiliates here:

Eric A Longenhagen: Minors Search | baseballsavant.com

Eric A Longenhagen: Feel free to bookmark that, I have.

Jeb: Are there any Pirate prospects who have arrows pointing up right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Griffin and Sanford both had 50% hard hit rates thru the end of May. Pretty good, Griffin making 45-grade contact is a key variable, too.

Guest: Are you concerned about Trey Yesavage’s control, seemed to walk a lot of guys since moving to high A

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, not yet. He’s striking out two guys an inning (though some of that is his initial assignment was very, very conservative)

Guest: Is Arjun Nimmala a top 40 prospect in the game?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think that’s crazy.

Rube: Can you give a current comp for an org who a couple of years ago had a similar shallow system with 50s talent like the Ms?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can. Let’s all quick use the Farm System Ranking dropdown to see what we can see: Farm System Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Washington just last year or two is in that area.

Eric A Longenhagen: Mets from ’23, although not all those guys are panning out

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a good one, too The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

12 to 6: eric, muncy’s spectacles-related revitalization is key to the dodger lineup, but it seems his days of battling third base to a standstill are nearing an end. given freeland’s defensive skill set and the seemingly dynamite combo of kim and betts in the mi, is there any chance la starts cycling max into 1b (freeman off days), lf, and dh (ohtani off days) with more frequency and giving freeland a shot at the hot corner?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK if there are enough “Shohei off days” for there to be frequent reps in the scenarios you’re illustrating. Plus, Freeland isn’t on the 40-man, you’re sacrificing someone else to add him proactively. He’ll come up when it’s necessary due to injury dominoes and I think that’s fine.

Guest: Any early DSL standouts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Did you see I wrote on their org list about the 26-year-old Rangers guy who signed a few days before the league started and has been touching 99?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mariners had nobody who wasn’t already on the radar.

Eric A Longenhagen: My scope has been limited to those orgs and who they’ve played the first week and a half of games

David: Still getting through the Mariners write up; just wanted to pass along thanks for having an write up on how Ford’s catching has progressed. I don’t know what the team does with him but glad to hear he has made some significant progress behind the dish.

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re welcome, thanks for noticing. He’s one where whether or not he’d be able to stay back there was a key question for him when he was in HS, and so I have a pretty detailed year-to-year feel for how he’s trended because we were all paying close attention to it from the jump.

Refugee: I’ve got a couple books by Kazushi Tezuka (The Truth About Pitching & The Truth About Batting) – what’s the easiest (most feasible?) way to get them signed by you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends where you’re at but I’ll definitely sign one of them and trade you a signed Future Value for the other because I’m trying to horde copies lol. Throw your email in a question (i wont post it) and we’ll try to figure it out.

Guest: Obviously years since he was a prospect, but given today’s trade, any hope that Andrew Vaughn figures it out away from the White Sox, or is he what he is at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna say he is what he is at this point, but watch his bat speed on Savant and see if that leaps post-trade. That’d be the variable that, if MIL can improve it, then they’ve done something.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Samuel Basallo is crushing the ball, but every time I look, he’s doing it off a 29 year old journeyman sitting 89-90. Is there a way to isolate data based on actual, quality competition? Or is this just what AAA data looks like nowadays?

Eric A Longenhagen: You might be able to use that Savant page I linked to earlier to alter the sliders for pitch velo on your own. I can do some amount of it with Synergy right now, you just want his splits against 94+ fastballs? Give me like 30 seconds

Eric A Longenhagen: Versus all pitches 94 mph or more he’s slashing .125/.300.188

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a 145 pitch sample

Eric A Longenhagen: his contact rate is not all that bad against them, it’s 76%

Eric A Longenhagen: when i expand the sample to include last year….

Eric A Longenhagen: .462 OPS

Eric A Longenhagen: So maybe a concern

Dan in TX: Thanks for the advice. Deep league, would you rate Tyson Lewis or Rainiel Rodriguez higher as a long term speculation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rodriguez

Eric A Longenhagen: oh, i owe you guys video of him. I promise as soon as I log off i’ll edit that together and upload it to the youtube channel

Eric A Longenhagen: which is here btw FanGraphs – YouTube

Kate: Has Johnny King’s performance at the complex so far given you any new info that would affect his FV?  Or does this basically look like what you described in his report in the Jays list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Velo is way up, waiting for him to pitch at Phillies so we can all just watch it. I think that’ll be Monday if he stays on the usual schedule.

Eric A Longenhagen: Which means aqui: PhilliesBroadcasts 2 – YouTube

Kate: Have you heard anything about what’s going on with Letson?  I’m assuming it’s some kind of injury.

Eric A Longenhagen: Gah, I have not. Has he been IL’d? If so I can find out. If not, like they’re just skipping a start for innings/load mgmt purposes, they’d have to tell me.

Dan: Hot or iced coffee? Weather dependent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hot first thing, maybe iced later

Matt: Hey Eric, how far up do think you have Aroon Escobar moving in updated top 100 (if at all)? Seen some places move him into the top 100 already and Keith Law has him as high as #40

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably more toward the back for me, wanna see him keep chugging down the shore in the second half

Todd: Jonathon Long has been punishing AAA pitching all year. Has his performance answered any key scouting questions or meaningfully improved his outlook?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s crushing it enough to merit re-evaluation certainly, just peeking at the spray chart it’s still so inside out that off hand I’m fine with a 40 on him. Remember, a 40 is a big league grade, luke voit type performance, a useful role player just in the 20-30 range among 1B league wide.

Guest: what do you see mcgonigle’s mlb eta looking like with the tigers this competitive?

Eric A Longenhagen: If he’s one of your top two MIFs in the org right now, you need to test that and decide proactively. I’d juice the kid to Eerie right and give him a month there, which then gives you two week prior to the deadline to make moves with a better understanding of his readiness

Eric A Longenhagen: Not to trade K Mac, just to know what your needs really are.

Mets SP: Of Sproat, Tidwell, Tong, McLean, any others, who do think has the highest ceiling? Do any have ace potential?  Thank you.

Eric A Longenhagen: If Tong can keep sustaining this I guess it’s him, I’m not gonna throw Ace around for any of those guys, though.

Kate: I know we all hate comps, but hearing some Keaschall comps for Kyle DeBarge.  Any similarities there or just a lazy comp because they’re both good hit tool guys in the same org?

Keith: Thanks Eric. How do you compare Luis Pena vs. Jesus Made, and what are the chances Pena proves to be the better prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oops, DeBarge question first here…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think the Keaschall comp really holds water, Jon Berti is more what I’m thinking off the top of my head. I just think the Keaschall comp comes from them being in the same org, people comparing to players they’re familiar with.

Eric A Longenhagen: Pena is more polished, Made’s power ceiling is nuts

Friendship with Connor Wong Ended: I assume he’ll have graduated and won’t get an evaluation on your Red Sox list, but what do you make of Carlos Narvaez who you had as a 35+ last year on the Yankees list? It seems like both his defense and offense have wildly overperformed expectations. Is the clock going to strike midnight and turn him into an offensive pumpkin soon or could he hold down the starting catcher job?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s overperforming but is still pretty good

Ham Fighter: You watch StatCast fumbling around trying to ID pitches for Misio last night?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did, pretty common for the guy’s first start

Bily: I’m sure suggestions like this get old, but have you considered not doing team lists and just doing weekly batch updates to the board and writing them up as you see guys or source info? The site would get weekly clicks and at least this reader would enjoy that more.

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely wanna do team lists similar to the way they’re done now with batch updates you’re talking about thrown in.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a lot for one fella (plus a skilled freelancer, essentially) and I’m constantly adjusting.

Robert: What do you think of the White Sox approach with Grant Taylor (calling him up and putting him in the bullpen)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe they know something about his health that we don’t? If not, it was needlessly early to do that. What’s the rush?

Oaktown Blues: Man, you weren’t kidding about Denzel Clarke’s defense. Game-changing. If you’re the A’s, do you keep starting him and hope the bat comes around?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you let him play frequently because that might be the only way he feels through his own adjustments. Plus, at least he’s impacting the game in some positive, special way. He made a play exactly like that one in last year’s AFL.

Fred whitfield: What is about lawlar that concerns you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lack of barrel feel, tightly wound athlete

SAIN-ja: With someone as unique as Jurrangelo Cijntje, is the market inefficiency of having an actual switch pitcher really worth it, compared to having him just throw righty all the time with his better velo and pitch mix?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not

Eric A Longenhagen: Unless the opponent it so specifically vulnerable to LH stuff

We want Moore: Did Christian Moore figure out how to hit breaking balls?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was more concerned about elevated fastballs fro him if i remember correctly

Izzy: Not a prospect question, but what grade would you give Betts’ SS defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: Average in most respects, below average arm (he’s way better throwing from the outfield when his entire body can be involved), call it a 45

Wetherholt: What are Wetherholts EVs looking like in AA? Sad there isn’t public data for so much of the minors

Eric A Longenhagen: 42% hard hit, 108 max, 103 EV90

Eric A Longenhagen: The tech for it (it being public statcast data) only exists in so many places

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus, this way you *need* me

Steve O: If MLB goes to full ABS is catching just going to be blocking + throwing out runners? Seems like it’ll devalue the catcher position. Could you just put anyone back there knowing they can basically cheat when throwing out runners and don’t have to worry about framing at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dont think they’ll do that

Eric A Longenhagen: Challenge system is too much fun

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re gonna thread the needle on this one, and if they don’t I’m going to be the loudest dissenter.

Kevin: Are the teams who are best at development doing something different than other teams do, or are they just better at doing the same things in some way?

Eric A Longenhagen: A little of both. You have some Have Not Orgs who are a decade behind, and you have other teams who are better at using the same tools the other clubs have. Sometimes that’s just synergizing scouting and dev so you’re taking players that you already that know you’re going to change

drplantwrench: i’m very excited for the CMo call up (even if i think its a bit early).  what do you expect from him?  can he learn to hit breaking balls on the job?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on the low man on him, I think. Defense and hit tool questions. Might hit for enough power to render that moot. Kid is competitive, he’ll bring an edge they need, which is good.

Jack: Re: Letson. Hadn’t pitched since 5/8 and then was put on IL 6/2.

Eric A Longenhagen: Right shoulder impingement.

Prospect: Has your evaluation of chandler Simpson changed at all after seeing him have a moderate run in both aaa and mlb? I was fairly surprised he was demoted

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, still like the elite speed and projected defense enough to 50 him. I think it’s fine for them to give Misner runway to see if he can actually hit enough here in his prime to be a contributor.

Jake: Kristian Campbell has seemingly lost the ability to pull the ball or get it in the air. Something to worry about there?

Eric A Longenhagen: When I write the sox list an update his blurb with a “how is this going?” point of view, I’ll look into whether the league has made adjustments that seem to have caused this. Remember, though, this is only the guy’s third year of high level baseball. I’m not sweating it. Same as it was too reactionary to be like “This was the best prospect this year!” in March, it’d be similar to fret over this.

Fred whitfield: When you say tightly wound do you meant that physically or mentally

Eric A Longenhagen: Physically, his lower body

Snail: Has this season changed your stance at all on Harry Ford’s hit tool? You gave him a 30 on the mariners list, but he’s running a contact rate of 79.3% (up from ~74% in past years), with only 8.6% swinging strikes – and is not sacrificing quality of contact for quantity, either (90.3mph avg EV, 45% hard hit, 25% LD). If this season *hasn’t* changed your opinion of his hit tool, what is it in particular that makes you think his AAA results won’t translate to the big leagues (at least at an average rate of translation)?

Eric A Longenhagen: And with that, it’s time for me to run. Thanks for coming everyone, I appreciate you visiting the site. Please read our stuff and consider becoming a member. Remember we have a price increase looming but you can lock in at the current price for three years. Here’s a link:

Eric A Longenhagen: A Note on Membership Pricing | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Rainiel Rodriguez video, I’m on it. Next Friday I’ll be chatting from Pennsylvania, I think. My cousin is getting married. It might impact my schedule, sorry if it does. bye bye’