Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 7/25/25

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy, hope everyone is well. I’m back at the kitchen island in Tempe to chat with everyone, do some draft postmortem, prep for a Top 100 update which will go live on Monday, talk trade deadline… the gamut.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, as always, for your wonderful support and readership during the list cycle and the draft. Time to start 2026 draft prep in earnest (East Coast Pro and underclass Area Codes get going right after the trade deadline) and update some contenders’ systems prior to the deluge of deals.

Eric A Longenhagen: But for now, let’s chat…

Scotty: It was reported that Alejandro Rosario still hasn’t had TJS… any insight on this? I try not to speculate but it feels like some off the field problem and are we looking at a player who might never get on the field again…

Eric A Longenhagen: This is a Chris Young quote from Kennedi Landry’s reporting in February: “..it’s likely UCL, I don’t want to officially say, but yeah, it’s elbow and will probably require Tommy John. … He’s going to require surgery. As with all these things, we want to check the boxes and make sure we get multiple opinions. We don’t want to sit on this and not announce it when we know he’s going to be out, but we’re still figuring out the next steps.” I

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s an Evan Grant tweet that Scooter is referring to…

Eric A Longenhagen: (1) Evan Grant on X: “@fantasyaceball @RealJRAnderson He’s not had surgery. It is a process. Rangers and Rosario working through some unrelated issues.” / X

Eric A Longenhagen: sorry to link to the hell site

Eric A Longenhagen: I have no insight on this, I’ll ask around myself and call Pablo Torre’s hotline to see if he’ll take the case.

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK what “unrelated issues” could be, but it reads like discontent to me

Dodgers: Chances Hope or De Paula get traded?

Eric A Longenhagen: Given what the market value of prospects seems to be right now, I’d say it’s unlikely. I’m not sure there’s a big enough fish out there to merit either’s inclusion unless it’s a bold one-for-one deal, or if it turns out someone we didn’t know was available gets moved.

bushupking: Can anything be gleaned from Jaison Chourio‘s season besides the fact he seems to have a bum shoulder? Seems like he’s been unable to get any momentum.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was at least a little bit overrated coming in. At-bat quality is awesome, swing is nowhere near actualized for power and he might be a corner guy

No farm: Bergert Padres #3? Is he fulfilling your write up. Legit growth or 5th starter 4.50 era?

Eric A Longenhagen: My grade is that of a good team’s no. 4/5 and he looks about that good. I know I ranked him 3rd but it’s a bad system. He was an MLB-ready starter, I’ll take it compared to the Kash Mayfield types who are years away and about as talented

Edmundo: It’s being reported BOS turned down Cease, Salas+ for Jarren Duran. Contract wise, I can see why, but can you explain the current perception of Salas’ value at age 19 in relation to what you’d expect Duran to fetch? I’d think Duran’s value is on its way down?

Eric A Longenhagen: The original report is a MassLive report, here: MLB Notebook: A look at which prospects Red Sox might move at trade deadline; deal brewing with Dodgers? – masslive.com

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s much easier for me to sit and wait for Ethan Salas to get healthy than it would be to trade one of the deadline’s better chips for an injured guy who hasn’t performed on paper since 2023.

Alek: If you’re the Nats, and a package like Alcantara, Ballesteros, and Wiggins comes along, I think you should do that right? The team probably isnt making the playoffs in ‘26, and who knows if a ‘27 season even happens. Then, Gore is a FA.

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK if those are the exact names I’m asking for but your logic about moving Gore is sound. At this snapshot in time I think we’ll have a ’27 season, personally, too much incentive to avoid full season work stoppage.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I agree that Gore probably won’t sign an extension, and I do think the Cubs covet him.

Jonah Tong: Any intel as to why I haven’t been promoted to triple-A yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve made two Double A starts?

Oddball Herrera: How much do you balance age-at-level vs performance?  I am looking at Walcott – his numbers only scream superstar if you couch them in “look at how old he is” terms.   Would you rather bet on a 19 year old putting up his not bad numbers in AA or a 22/23 year old putting up dominant ones at the same level?

Eric A Longenhagen: His age (and more importantly his physical projection, which is related to age but not exactly the same thing) contextualizes his performance but I’m not about making some sort of age-related calculation or anything. Is the 23 year old you’re talking about built like Walcott is?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 19, is built like prime Larry Fitzgerald and already has 60 raw. His swing isn’t actualized for power, but he’s 19 so who cares?

Lord Thunder: Ben was asked in his chat this morning about the large number of “huge athletic freaks” atop the Trade Value list. Who stands out from the draft as that type of player?

Eric A Longenhagen: Holliday, Arquette, Grays Murf and Taitn, Neyens, Kilby…

Eric A Longenhagen: Quentin Young

Eric A Longenhagen: Nick Becker, Mason Ligenza

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of the college outfielders who went in rounds 3 to 5

Eric A Longenhagen: guys with contact risk

Eric A Longenhagen: James Quinn-Irons, Landyn Vidourek

Eric A Longenhagen: Rememebr you can always sort The Board by physical attributes: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Barcode Bo: What is Kevin Alcantara’s trade value relative to 4 months ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think his option years getting squeezed means he’s only really a trade fit for a team that has time to let him struggle in the bigs for a couple years

Eric A Longenhagen: Like it’s a tough fit for PIT because they’ve gotta get better soon, they can’t have him making adjustments for 18 months

War2d2: Hi Eric! I was reading a thing about the Cubs’ draft and the writer was really excited about their 6th rounder, Jo Hartshorn. They claimed he was a 2nd round value but was thought to be committed to college. Have you put eyes on him? I’d never heard the name before. I realize he’s 5+ years out but I’m always up for some wishcasting.

Eric A Longenhagen: Had him ranked more toward the back of Rd 3, he got early second round money at 2mil. my report from The Board: Physical switch-hitting power bat. Injuries (elbow, back) forced him to stop switch-hitting at various points of his high school career, making more impressive his feel to hit (especially from the left side) at this stage because both swings are fairly dialed in and functional. Posted 84% contact rate from both sides of the dish on the showcase circuit. Gap-to-gap style from both sides. Average big league raw power right now (hit a handful of balls 109-111 mph at the Combine), but might not grow into more, as Hartshorn’s body is already maxed out. Late-second/third round mix.

Danny: Big Spencer Jones debate- has he made any sustainable changes, can he be an average or better regular with his current contact rate, how much are his scorching stats aided by the AAA environment (AAAA pitchers and ABS)?

Eric A Longenhagen: When I hop off chat this is first on my to-do list for update.

Eric A Longenhagen: lemme glance at some stuff real quick, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: sub 60% contact rate is terrifying, no matter how much power

Eric A Longenhagen: He has a 58% contact rate

Eric A Longenhagen: Major League Leaderboards – 2015 to 2025 – Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: You can see what kind of hitters hover in that area.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s guys with at least 600 PA since 2015, nobody with a contact rate under 60%

Eric A Longenhagen: Doesn’t mean he can’t have a good peak year or two or three, but there is likely to be season-to-season volatility

Eric A Longenhagen: this is without looking at the swing in a thorough manner (though I watched Scranton’s day game yesterday)

JR: Why did Tyson Lewis stay in rookie ball so long? Will he be moved to Low A now that the complex season is over?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it was an appropriate level for him all year. Now he’ll essentially face a better level of competition during instructs. I know his stats look great but I’m not sure his feel to hit was ready for full season ball. Next year.

For The Birds: I gotta know, anyone who has really jumped for you in the Os system? Mejia? George? Bucce? Gibson? German? Beavers? Hell, Jeremiah Jackson? Im depressed about the Orioles give me a spar to cling to

Eric A Longenhagen: George and Beavers. Beavers’ power is back.

JR: Do you think Grant Taylor will be tried as a starter again next season or is he a reliever now? It seems like a quick trigger if they don’t give him another chance to start.

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. Were he working more than 1 inning at a time more often I’d be inclined to say yes. I agree the hook was too quick. It’s plausible there’s more to know than we do about this situation, but they had basically no incentive to promote him the way they did.

Kurt T: Does sports science affect eval of pitching mechanics for prospects in a significant way, in you experience?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the room, but yes. Teams are sending tech to the field, even in remote places, to capture it. Most teams have mobile Sony Rx 10 cameras (that’s my model) or edgertronics in the hands of cross checkers or area scouts

YardGoat: Is Angel Cervantes truly going to UCLA or just using a negotiating tactic? In this draft pool era, what would lead a team to use a 2nd round pick on someone they aren’t sure about signing?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ll just see when the deadline arrives but it’d be a rough look to lose him and it’d be fair for the Pittsburgh beats to ask the F.O. how the hell it happened if he matriculates.

Michael: Miss hearing you on podcasts.   Any chance you could do a 15 minute podcast every couple weeks and just brain dump on prospects draft, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: Working on it, probably need a second full time person to help with all the reports to make that happen…

Eric A Longenhagen: Sometimes I dislike the sound of my voice too much to edit the thing

Galen: I have an upcoming minor league draft for my leagues (AL/NL only).  My team is in contention for the title in both leagues.  Which non-top 100 guys still in the minor leagues might provide value the rest of the season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d target AA and AAA players from teams likely to sell at the deadline, especially if those guys have post-2025 40-man timelines. Like Nathan Martorella, off the top of my head.

Eric A Longenhagen: Cam Weston?

Eric A Longenhagen: maybe Juan Brito (hurt right now tho)

Mark: What is your takeaway of Andrew Painter’s season at AAA? His numbers look very ordinary.

Eric A Longenhagen: Throwing strikes but not in miss-friendly locations. Secondary stuff playing mostly like average rather than plus. Don’t think he’s clearly one of their best five starters in the org right now, still a huge-framed 22 year old at Triple-A who’s returning from a multi-year absence. Doing pretty well in that light.

nb: Hey Eric – Different type draft for the Phillies this year with the focus on college arms. In the short term, do you think Wood sees CBP as a reliever this year?  In the long term, do you think he has #2/#3 SP potential?  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a shot that Wood, Obermueller or Bowker move really fast as relievers. Wood was hurt and only threw 37 innings. If he gets going in Clearwater and looks good, I could see sending him to Lakewood and seeing if he blows the doors off.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bowker has the look of a quick mover but threw a career high in innings

Eric A Longenhagen: so less likely

Eric A Longenhagen: Wood a 2/3 SP? That’s rich for me.

Eric A Longenhagen: But I’m a miser.

Windom Earle: You were excited about Yorman Licourt‘s brief debut last year, has he shown you anything in 2025 that has adjusted your stance on him? Ks now a big problem, not just rust, or is he still in the realm of “small sample, let him adjust”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still interesting enough to leave in the Others of Note Section for another cycle

Guest: Thoughts on Henry Bolte? The hit tool is still somewhat of a significant question, but his K rate is down, and he seems to be heating up. Power/speed combo there is exciting.

Eric A Longenhagen: I remain skeptical.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not quite the same stuff that made me scared of Colby Thomas but I hope A’s fans are starting to see why I wasn’t dying to put Thomas on my hondo or anything.

emh: Pitching prospects get hurt all the time. But is there any top hitting prospect who got hurt as often as Chase DeLauter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Honestly, I can’t think of a position player prospect who has been hurt more than this.

Tyler: Where will Konnor Griffin rank in the next Top 100 update?

Eric A Longenhagen: High

Justin: Is Edward Florentino approaching Top 100 territory?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not massive raw but it plays

Eric A Longenhagen: Felt like a stuck my neck out putting him where I did in that system, feels good now.

Nate: Which arms in the Boston system excite you most? What is the ceiling and proximity for the best young bosox hurlers?

Eric A Longenhagen: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Or if you’d rather, Boston Red Sox Top 45 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Astros: Congrats to James on his first list! Anyone stand out to you from that system?

Eric A Longenhagen: Congrats indeed. Kevin Alvarez is my guy there.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Do you have shape metrics for Esteban Mejia‘s 4S/2S/SL/CH?

Eric A Longenhagen: Give me a minute and I’ll get back to this one

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: A few years ago you did a review of shortstop defense – do you think you’d revisit this topic? I’m thinking of Colin Yeaman, previously known mostly for hunting fastballs, but you listed him as a slam dunk shortstop and it’d be cool to see what you see

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I’m actually going to comb back through all the top 100 shorstops for Monday’s update and can start laying the groundwork for that

Eric A Longenhagen: this is the piece in question: Let’s Watch Some Shortstop Prospects Play Defense | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Man, that’s from ’23? Would have told you it was from last year.

RetireNutting: It truly seems like Nutting is giving Cherington more time to do this thing he’s real bad at so a trade of Skenes #3 rated trade value guy feels likely this offseason to refocus on the Konnor Griffin/Bubba Chandler window. Can you think of the team or a few teams best positioned to have enough of a haul for Skenes if Cherington would prioritize bats coming back?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can’t trade Skenes, and you’ve gotta give the relevant parties credit for drafting Griffin and Chandler.

JR: How has Jose Corniell’s stuff looked in his return from TJ?

Eric A Longenhagen: First outing back was 96-97, cutter 92-93, ch 87-89, sld 82, rusty command. Fal Leaguer?

OwenB: Eric — thank you for all your work!  I owe my dynasty championship last year to you!  Questions about two dynasty power guys:  Tyler Locklear has been absolutely mashing since changing stance in early June.  Anything there?  Also Alfonsin Rosario mashing with more contact.  Any chance he rises up rankings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m skeptical of Locklear but will take a quick look…

Eric A Longenhagen: fwiw his expected stats are good, just wanna see if the hole in his swing has closed at all…

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat. Still chase-prone in a way that would make me apprehensive if I were you.

Eric A Longenhagen: Rosario I do think will rise because of how big the EVs are

Leo Needs a New Pair of Shoes: It feels like the bust rate on the “advanced college bat” demographic has been, well, at least not lower than for any of the “riskier” demographics over the last handful of years… if this is not just my imagination, have we – as an industry – learned anything about who will/won’t translate successfully to pro ball?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the college bats (like the actual metal bats) have warped and clouded our understanding

Logan: Thoughts on Izzi and Garcia, the two prospects in the Naylor deal? How likely is it the Mariners regret this?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna send you verbatim what I sent Danny Zips in Slack last night if that’s okay.

Eric A Longenhagen: Izzi: 4sm sitting 94, 2350 spin, 17 inches of vertical break (a shade above average), 7 feet of extension (near elite), 5ft8 release height (average), not getting many fastball whiffs, it’s playing right in the average area which is kind of disappointing given some of the other traits. Has a separate two-seamer getting ground balls at a 57% clip, average for a 2sm but obviously useful. Breaking balls are a cutter and sweeper. Noticeably different release on his slider compared to fastball, like four inches lower in the data. Sweeper sitting 82, 16 inches of horizontal break, getting above-average miss and chase. Cutter is averaging 86, 2500 rpm, locating for strikes as often as his fastball at 54%. I feel pretty confident it’s a separate pitch, though Synergy has him with just a slider. I’ll check really quick to make sure the catchers are putting down more than one sign…
yeah they’re different

Eric A Longenhagen: Has thrown just under 90 changeups all year, it’s not great. Stiff, short arm action, it’s easy to ID out of hand and has hittable movement. Pretty emphatically checks the MLB starter box as far as his build is concerned. Delivery isn’t the most graceful but it’s not so violent hat this is a relief-only type. Still a really projectable young guy. I’ll leave the 40+ FV on him. I have sources who think he’s a no. 4 starter, essentially. That’s his upside, he has some developmental hurdles to clear to get there (weapon versus lefties, for one, and hopefully better fastball playability)

Eric A Longenhagen: And then I cut this together:

Eric A Longenhagen: Garcia is a solid lefty bullpen piece

Eric A Longenhagen: like he’ll help ARI solidify a thing that has been a bad or inconsistent part of their bullpen for years

Oaktown Blues: Nick Kurtz still a 55 for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah, that’s a huge grade

Ben: What are your thoughts on Lazaro Montes? I know you were skeptical going into year, has his performance thus far changed your mind?

Eric A Longenhagen: Contact rate still scares me, lemme see where it’s at up to the minute…

Eric A Longenhagen: 65% combined A+ and AA. Think he has enough power to be useful in a righty-mashing capacity but I’m not trying to stuff him in the top 50 or anything

Eric A Longenhagen: Revisit the Spencer Jones link above

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh boy I’ve gotta go. I owe you guys Esteban Mejia data and I see now I was being dumb about Tong’s assignment.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll see you guys next week to talk about top 100 update and deadline prospects

Eric A Longenhagen: have a good weekend