Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 8/22

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up, everyone? I published the first of an obviously multi-part series on the prep summer showcase stuff I’ve been seeing. Part 1 is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-draft-summer-showcase-series-left-handed-pitchers/

Eric A Longenhagen: And time to chat…

Julio Pepper: How would the top of the 2015 draft go today? Bregman/Benintendi/Swanson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Too early to go back and re-do that sort of thing and definitely too early to imply that mistake up top were made. Like I wouldn’t fault the Rockies for taking Brendan Rodgers at 3 if he’s there, even with Benintendi on the board.

Great 8: What’s your future value for Yohander Mendez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is really good, has a chance to be an above average Major League starter, maybe make an All Star team or two at peak.

Paul: Is Jahmai Jones a top 100 prospect at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: For me, yes. Best prospect in that system.

Bobby Blownilla: Any under-the-radar catching prospects you think might blossom into starting/everyday types someday?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends how sensitive your radar is. If we’re talking deep sleepers then I like guys like Jose Herrera, Austin Rei, Pereda in the Cubs system, I have a crush on Garrett Stubbs…lots of guys

Eric A Longenhagen: If you’re just looking for non-top 100 guys then Deivi Grullon, Jake Rogers, Chris Okey…

Eric A Longenhagen: but those are high-profile names in the world I live in.

MATT: Is Maurico Dubon a legitimate prospect to become a league average SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me, no.

Eric: Thoughts on Alec Hansen’s debut? The stats are ridiculous. Did the White Sox change anything with him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only change I saw here after he signed was he was working with the curveball as the primary breaking ball. Other than that, not sure what’s been done but if it was so simple that it’s already had this kind of impact, why didn’t it happen at OU? It’s nuts what’s going on with him right now.

CubbieBlues: If every player who is under the age of 23 became available in the draft, who would go in the top 5? This hypothetical includes current major league players.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on, give me several hours to sort through all of those players and line up a board….

art vandelay: any concern with alex reyes long-term outlook as a SP? Is STL going to be tempted to keep him the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, there’s some because of the strike throwing issues but I think the control will come. Even if the chances were slim say, 20% that Reyes eventually threw enough strikes to be a starter (and btw I think they’re high er than that) I’d still give him every opportunity to do it because the upside is so high. I expect the Cardinals to give him every opportunity.

Mystery Team: Anytime I see a top 100 prospect list, the blurb for Dominic Smith, usually ranked mid 70s, is almost always skeptical or negative. In general, why include a player like this on the list in the first place if you seemingly work to invalidate his ranking. Not saying it’s wrong, I think it must be something I don’t get about the methodology

Eric A Longenhagen: So, there are inevitably going to be prospects that the writer does not love but, because of the nature of the job and the way we need to listen to the industry, we’re forced to rank in a spot that feels high. It’s just part of the job. Our individual skepticism needs to come through in the write-up.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s what I’d expect to be the source of the Dom Smith thing, though I like him. And I could just be wrong.

johnforthegiants: Have you ever seen such and overhyped prospect as Bryant fail as much as he’d had? He’s really regressed as a clutch hitter this year. And he can’t sustain his BAPIP (a stat that most FG readers don’t understand).

Eric A Longenhagen: You know what, nevermind.

Tim: How long does it take a guy to learn first base? Josh Bell looked like he had zero days experience there in his debut yesterday

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the prospect. Bell has been bad there since day one. It’s possible he just can’t do it. He’s not an exceptional athlete.

Jeet: Pick 2 to stash from: Buxton, Martes, Tom Murphy and Amir Garrett. Thanks 🙂

Eric A Longenhagen: Buxton and Martes.

Adam: Jake Bauers doesn’t seem to get a lot of attention for a Top 100 prospect. Is his ranking more related to floor than ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: 1B-only for many and only fringe to average power. To profile at 1B, he’d better be a 6 hitter and more than that to make a top 100 list.

Adam: Scouting the box score, Buddy Reed does not look very good. Should he be evaluated more on process over results, or does he fail the scout’s eye test as well?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts have always questioned Reed’s bat. He’s tooled up in every other way imaginable, but he’s always been a lousy hitter.

A. Reitz: Curious your thoughts on Tyler Austin and Jordan Patterson? Every day players w/ upside or 4th OF’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Austin I once thought could be a regular. 6 hit 5 power, injuries really took a toll. If he’s suddenly healthy again then yes, I think he can contribute. Patterson is more of a fourth OF for me.

Adam: If you had to prognosticate on the futures of Brayan Hernandez and Chris Torres from the Mariners system, whom would you say is the better long term bet to be a successful major leaguer?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take Torres.

Mike T.: Hey Eric – What do you think of Jays SS prospect Richard Urena? Is the bat ahead of the glove?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. That body has always been likely to move off of SS. I think the bat profiles at 3B, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: Espinoza has high-end upside, Senzel is safer, more polished and could be in the Majors next season if everything breaks right.

Dougy: Do you still believe in Buxton?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes.

Jeremy: Thanks for chatting! Give me some Vlad Jr. hype, because a) VLADDY and b) the Jays recent history of developing position players isn’t great…

Eric A Longenhagen: Big raw power and bat speed but the approach and body will be prohibitive down the line.

Nathan: Leody Taveras is obviously raw. But is there impact upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Plays CF for me, 6 arm, tremendous feel to hit, some power potential as well. He was a hot name around the deadline.

Dougy: Chances that Sanchez, Judge and Frazier are all regulars on the next post season Yankee team?

Eric A Longenhagen: 60%? I think they’re pretty good, I like all of those guys.

Q-Ball: Keith Law claims that the D-Backs front office was not fully aware of the IFA implications of signing Yoan Lopez… a level of understanding probably half your readers possess. That can’t really be true….or is it?

Eric A Longenhagen: That rumor was pervasive throughout the industry for a while (almost a year now, I think) and has generally been accepted as true by scouts and execs I’ve spoken to. None of the writers I know who were aware ever went on the record with it because a) it was impossible to get anyone in the Dbacks office to confirm it for obvious reasons and b) once you do it’s scorched Earth unless you’re, you know, Keith, and can deal with the inevitable blowback a piece like that causes both professionally and personally.

Kevin Cash: The Rays have a plethora of middle infielders right now. Does this mean one more year for Adames?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, but he’s worth the wait.

Diego: Outside of guys in the pre-season top 100, who are 1 or maybe 2 guys with power bats that could be up soon?

Eric A Longenhagen: So, upper-level power bats who aren’t big time prospects? Okay, we can do that…

Eric A Longenhagen: Daniel Palka. 55, maybe 60 raw pull power. Swing will be tough to make work but I think he could be a nice platoon option, maybe yank out 15 HRs that way.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Jarrett Parker a bit, too. Some swing and miss there but definite power.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Scott Schebler has the power to hit 15-18 homers in the right role.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bigger names like Nick Williams and Trey Mancini are worth considering, too.

Zonk: Have all the good Cubans now left the island? How do you foresee a regular pipeline developing long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is the subject of my HBT Annual piece. Most of them are gone (I actually saw and wrote up two of the last good ones here last month) .

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’re going to see a substantial gap between now and the next wave of talent coming over. And when it does it will probably be much older than the run we’ve seen lately.

Sailor Jerry: Yadi Alvarez A ball update: 26 2/3 IP, 42/7 K/BB, 7 ER

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a fan. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-dodgers-electric-cuban-righty-yadier-alvarez/

Levi: From a fantasy perspective, do you prefer Gary Sanchez or Willson Contreras over the next few years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sanchez has more raw power and I think that trumps Contreras’ versatility.

rhayex: The Reds minor league system has a number of interesting guys at the lower levels. Thoughts on guys like Taylor Trammel, TJ Friedl, Aristedes Aquino?

Eric A Longenhagen: Trammel is a freak athlete (was maybe GA’s best prep football player last year) with lots of upside, though I don’t think he’ll ever hit for much power. Friedl I wrote up here http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/reds-benefit-from-error-expected-to-sign-undrafted-talent/ when it looked like he had slipped under the radar (some teams knew he was eligible, some didn’t. It’s almost worse if you had him turned in).

Eric A Longenhagen: Aquino has above average raw, good bat control, is still growing into his body.

Toki: Whats’ the scouting report on Junior Fernandez?

Eric A Longenhagen: 70 fastball, fringe slider and change. Change probably has more projection.

Jim Lonborg: What can you tell us about Josh Ockimey? He’s jumped up a couple of lists this year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Philly-area high schooler so poor quality of competition can explain away early-career struggles. Has always had all-fields power, tightened up his body once in pro ball. I’m a fan.

CubbieBlues: Rob Zastryzny: good or nah?

Eric A Longenhagen: S’alright. 5th starter/ swing man type for me.

Brian: What is your most likely scenario for Lewis Brinson as an mlb player?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a star. Huge power, stays in CF.

Mike S.: I’m a braves fan. Make me feel better and tell me there is a Mike Trout in the 2017 draft that the Braves can take #1.

Eric A Longenhagen: If the current state of that farm system doesn’t do it for you, I’m not sure I can be of any comfort. There’s already a lot of talent there.

Q-Ball: Mexico is a very populous country; with 12 times more people than the DR you would think there would be more baseball players coming out of Mexico than there are. Agree? Why not more; popularity of soccer?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are probably economic reasons for it that are specific to Mexico. Also, body types down there aren’t usually baseball-friendly.

Guest: Do you (or the industry in general) have issues evaluating high school and some college pitchers due to how bad their catchers are? I feel like a bad framing catcher would make it seem like a pitcher has much worse command than they really do, therefore making your job more difficult.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bad catchers are frustrating to watch but they don’t make it harder to scout the pitcher. Might have an impact on pitch counts, though.

JB: Any notable bloodlines in the 2017 draft class to start getting excited about?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jeren Kendall might go 1-1. Dave Weathers’ kid is draft eligible….there are probably way more those two just popped into my mind.

Jim Lonborg: Any hope for Henry Owens, after another failed call-up?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never been a fan. Excessively tall without great athleticism and was FB/CH. Very little hope of developing a breaking ball, had control issues….

johnforthegiants: How do you feel about readers that troll the comments section?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t look at the comments section.

Erik: You seem to be (understandably) quite low on Dylan Dozens. With his great raw power and solid baserunning and defense to back it up, how poor can his contact be for him to still be an average regular? And how far is he from that threshold?

Eric A Longenhagen: He can be a 40 hitter and still be a productive big leaguer.

Philip: What is the best Kanye album?

Eric A Longenhagen: Graduation is my favorite, Dark Twisted Fantasy is probably the best.

Philip: Seafood or meat tacos?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pork

Philip: Hard or soft shell tacos?

Eric A Longenhagen: Soft

Philip: Are pineapple/mangos on pizza good?

Eric A Longenhagen: GTFO

LioneeR: What low level pitching prospect of the Braves should I be most excited about? Allard, Soroka, Weigel, Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Wilson, or someone else?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d have Allard, Anderson, and Wentz atop a list of those names.

Dibbles Witherford: Thoughts on Willie Calhoun? Chances on staying at 2B?

Eric A Longenhagen: Really unique hitting environment there in Yavapai where all the 4C scouts had to weigh his performance against the stadium/elevation/weather issues in Prescott. There’s power and some feel for hitting but he’s not a 2B for me and I have trouble identifying a place I can envision him playing.

Jacob: Have you seen Bobby Dalbec (as a hitter)? Is that power legit or what?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I’ve seen a ton of him, though not as much this year because he had to be benched at UofA because he wasn’t making any contact. It’s 70 future raw power for me, and he was a preseason 1st rd candidate because of it, but the strikeouts are a significant issue.

TC: Have you seen Derian Cruz? Say things about him please!

Eric A Longenhagen: Both he and Christian Pache have come along faster than even the Braves expected.

Romus: What do you see the upside on 2B Scott Kingery?

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus hitter, plus glove, plus run. A much better future option than Cesar Hernandez.

Jeff in T.O.: What prospect would you draft #1 if you could poach from the entire minor leagues? Does your answer change depending on how close to competing your current team is?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Moncada.

Big Joe Montferrant: Out of the plethora of Bullpen prospects the yankees have, who do you like the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Acevedo

beau: Kolby Allard’s ceiling? Been cruising the last couple of weeks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ceiling? #2 if I’m being aggressive.

Cody : Hey Eric, I was wondering if you have seen Mike Soroka and if you think he could be a MOR guy if he can continue throwing strikes and going deep into games, if he can get by with his pitches?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that’s about right, yes. Big-bodied, inning-eating sinker baller with better secondary stuff that your average sinker guy. #3/4 type of arm.

humphrey: Anthony Alford realllly struggled the first half of the year but has turned it around the past two months. Was he playing through injuries or did he make some adjustments? What’s your view on his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Could be a combination of things but really just a opportunity to remind everyone to be patient with prospects. I had many questions early in my tenure here at FG about the demise of Alford, Fran Martes and others. I’ve gotten questions about whether or not Martes is an ace today. “These things take time”, as a wise man once said.

FireDrayton: Crush on Garrett Stubbs…can you expand on that a bit?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scrappy 5-foot-10ish catcher who is like a 50/55 runner, plays good defense and makes decent line drive contact. He’s small, really small, and people don’t know how that body will hold up to catching everyday.

Philip: I am a deep follower of all minor league systems, what do you think of Yohel Pozo? Having a very good year with AZL Rangers

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re on it. Really good approach, plus bat speed, compact swing with good bat control. Very mature body, probably can’t catch but trying to get at least one more look over the next week.

Yohan: Seems like the Phillies should have a lot of their J2 allocation left. Any idea if/where they are going to spend it?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ve been interested in Vlad Gutierrez in the past (he had a showcase at their complex in FL) but he’s been eligible to sign for a while. Beyond that I don’t have them attached to names.

Steve: Does Kopech have close to the upside of Espinoza?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me, doesn’t have feel for secondaries the way Espinoza did.

Patrick: Jason Groome had a nice 2 IP debut today. Does he have #1 upside, or was he just overhyped pre-draft and is more a #2-3 if he reaches his ceiling? I’ve heard wonders about his curveball

Eric A Longenhagen: Has real top-of-the rotation upside for me.

Nick: Thoughts on Marcus Wilson? he looks like he could become a very exciting player

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge tools, might have had some vision issues early in his career (he showed up one day to AZL with goggles). He’s still more of a lottery ticket than high-end prospect but I do like the tools.

JP: Jose Paulino and Oscar De La Cruz seem to be the only two cubs healthy pitching prospects to get excited about right now. What is your take on them?

Eric A Longenhagen: De La Cruz I’ve seen up to 95 with a plus slider. Paulino I’ve seen up to 94 with an average slider and change. Oscar has had injury issues but yes, he’s healthy for now.

Bobby: Would you say that the gap between the top 80 prospect and the top 200th prospect is very little compared to top 10/20 prospects? Or do you think rankings are fairly linear?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s definitely a curve. Typically I’d say there are clumps. A top 3-5, a top 6-15, 16-40, 41-75, 75-125 and on and on. Those aren’t exact, just ballparked.

Tony: What are the Pirates going to do with Austin Meadows? He certainly appears ready for a big league showcase, but with Cutch/Marte/Polanco they don’t have a fit long term.

Eric A Longenhagen: It would probably feel bad to sell low on Cutch, even if moving him seems like the obvious way of clearing space for Meadows. I’m not done with Cutch, think he just had a down year.

Chris: Does Delvin Perez crack your top 100 this offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: A really good question. I’ll probably spend a ton of time deciding how much I think his PED use helped his tools. If I decide they didn’t, then yeah he probably ends up somewhere toward the back of it.

EC: Is there any chance Reynaldo Lopez stays in the rotation long term? Could he be a sort of Marcus Stromen type long term? (short guy no one thought would start, but it works out)

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a chance, yes. Wouldn’t comp him to Stro, though. Stroman people thought couldn’t start because of his size. Lopez it’s because of control.

Q-Ball: Can you cite an example of a prospect with an excellent hit-tool, and absolutely nothing else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Steven Susdorf

YOAT: Mitch Haniger has had a decent debut. Anything there beyond a potential fourth outfielder?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Has made substantive changes to the swing.

Tony: What kind of peak do you expect from Dansby Swanson? Solid 2 hole hitter with a high obp/good defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: That sounds right to me.

Donny: If Anderson Espinosa is a top 20 prospect, is it unreasonable for Yadier Alvarez to be considered top 50? Maybe this isn’t the best comparison…

Eric A Longenhagen: Alvarez will absolutely be top 50 for me this offseason and maybe top 25.

Rich: A friend and I were discussing women in baseball, and how the gender barrier would be broken in the MLB. We agreed that the first female in the MLB would probably be a LOOGY. What do you think?

Eric A Longenhagen: Either that or 2B.

Steve: Do you think we will see Triston McKenzie making the jump onto most top 100 rankings given the Indians aggressive promotion?

Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t speak for others but I anticipate him making mine.

Kevin: Can you rank Keller, Gohara, Alcantara, Cease, and Soroka? Having a hard time picking one.

Eric A Longenhagen: Want safer? Keller and Soroka. Sorka has more upside but keller is closer. Want ceiling? Gohara. Cease and Alcantara fit in there, too but I think Gohara is starting to put it together.

Will: Do you think Tim Anderson will be able to draw walks in the future ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe he eventually has a 5% walk rate but that guy is always going to swing it.

Matt: Lourdes Guirriel (sp?) – what are your thoughts? I feel like in the very recent, opinions of him are good good, but they’ve dropped away from “superstar”.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never spoken with a scout who thinks Lourdes is a superstar. He’s athletic and wiry, he runs pretty well. Some hope he can play CF or 2B. Hope. There’s power to his pull side right now, but he has some swing and miss issues created by lever length. He’s a nice little prospect but nothing plus, tools-wise and already 23.

CamdenWarehouse: Do you see J.P. Crawford as strong offensively or more likely holding his own with the bat and strong D?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter and it’s always been that way. Potential 7 defender at SS. Might have an approach that works near the top of a lineup, even if he only hits .270 with 8-12 homers at peak.

You Better You Better You Betts: When a team drafts a two-way player, does the player have any input as to which position he plays(i.e. a shortstop/pitcher feels more comfortable in the field and thinks he’ll be more successful there)?

Eric A Longenhagen: They can try. Casey Kelly wanted to play SS and the Red Sox obliged him early on until the kid realized that wasn’t going to work, long term.

Boston Dan Mcgraw: why is bat speed such an exciting tool? i always hear Clint Frazier has it and people get pretty strung up on it. What current major leaguer is known for their bat speed?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s mostly innate, like fastball velo but for hitters. All the ones who are good at hitting. Javy Baez has 80 bat speed.

Chris: Which NBA star would make the best MLB player?

Eric A Longenhagen: I bet if you gave 11 year old Steph Curry a glove and told him to go to SS that it would have been pretty good by now.

Boston Dan Mcgraw: if you could develop a hitting prospect that was guarenteed to have a .250 average and a .900 ops, how would you split his OBP and SLUG to make the best player? extremes would be .250/250/650 and .250/650/250

Eric A Longenhagen: OBP is objectively more valuable than slugging, so that one.

Jack: Which player has seen their stock rise the most in the Rookie leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Khalil Lee looks incredible.

I am the walrus: What’s the lowdown on last yr’s Inter FA signed by LAD Heredia?

Eric A Longenhagen: Big bodied OF who can run a little bit and has some power.

I am the walrus: Your thoughts on Mets first round P Dunn so far this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Chris Mitchell went to see him last week and he was 90-93, up to 96 and the slider looks fine.

Dave Stewart: Are you hiring by any chance? Asking for a friend.

Eric A Longenhagen: Did news break while I’ve been doing this or is that just a mean-ish joke?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hold on…

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, a couple more…

DTH: How do you feel about the closing of the 2 Cal league teams? I’ve seen people happy since they’re poorly located/bad parks, but it’ll reduce the prospect talent pool on the west coast, so I imagine your job will be harder

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it was nice for me to have those clubs somewhat close to me, especially HOU, but I get it.

Steve: Ryan Cordell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has long been tantalizing.

Matts: Can you please explain to me the Jaren Kendall hype? I understand you can’t just scout the statline but that 25 BB/62 SO ratio really sticks out as a red flag

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s patient bordering on passive at the plate but there’s nothing about his swing that points to future strikeout issues.

Mike R.: Who is Jeren Kendall related to?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jeremy

Steve: Most under the radar indians prospect to be excited about.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oscar Gonzalez is pretty interesting

mike sixel: If you write an article, you don’t look at the comments? Bummer, some of us like to ask follow up questions.

Eric A Longenhagen: You can always hit me up on the Twitter (@longenhagen) and in these chats.

Kevin: Are teams/scouts making any progress in identifying which pitchers will be more/less likely to be injured?

Eric A Longenhagen: If they are they aren’t telling me. I’m sure they’re trying.

I am the walrus: What young internationally signed SS do you like better and why.. Gasparini or Fox?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fox. Better bat speed, more athletic, much better chance to stay at SS.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay everyone, that’s it for today. If you want 2017 draft content please check out today’s post on the LHPs I saw during summer showcases. See you here next week.