Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 9/4/26

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, chat. Happy September Stretch Run to you all.

Brendan Smith: Will you be at the first weekend of the AZ Fall League? Any tips for a first-time attendee?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, I’ll be here all season save for maybe one weekend where I slip out of town for football. My first tips for newbs is to check the schedule to make sure you’re not accidentally coming here when the group is playing down in Tucson, or when there are off days to avoid counter-programming the world series. Look at the schedule and see when the games take place consecutively so you can double and triple up.

Eric A Longenhagen: My second piece of advice is to avoid Glendale during the day if it’s still pretty hot outside. The way that ballpark is oriented leaves you without shade.

scottsjunk1981: Have you seen anything unexpected in Jackson Kent‘s first few starts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just that the strikes have been *this* bad. Changeup is missing bats at a plus clip. Think he’s still in that no. 4/5 SP area long term.

rainingmozzarella: Any possibility Carlos Virahonda and David Hagaman could see some top 100 love in the offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Hagaman is the more obvious one. Sitting 93, add a tick of perceived velo because it’s 7ft of extension, breaking stuff all missing bats at a plus rate, underlying strikes are better than his walk rate, changeup is good enough to be a fourth pitch, mid-rotation starter size… checks a ton of boxes

Eric A Longenhagen: Virahonda it’s contact and defense. Power performance has been a mirage relative to his true talent, this guy shas well below vaerage bat speed, but he can move the barrel around.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think he’s a top 100 guy, but think he’s in that 40+/45 territory

Biscuit: Is this about what you expected out of Carter Jensen when he was a prospect, or is there another gear in there?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is the kind of overall output I expected. Based on Brendan’s tool grades he thinks there’s another gear of contact/batting average in there. I put a 30 on his hit tool, he’s K’ing 28% of the time so that’s how it’s played so far. Still getting to power and catching well enough to be a 2+ WAR player. Had him graded like that for a while, I remember when it was controversial (based on comments I got in this chat) to have him ahead of Blake Mitchell.

scottsjunk1981: Andrew Alvarez is up to 114 innings of 3.38 FIP and 3.24 ERA. Has your evaluation of his arsenal shifted at all? Or do you still project him to approximately replacement level going forward?

Eric A Longenhagen: Velo is up a tick and a half, so that’s different. Stuff in terms of its movement and his pitch mix are the same. Fastball still surrendering a ton of hard contact. I think he’s done enough to show that he’s above replacement. Low leverage swingman, you could 40 him if you want.

Big Fan: I read that John Gil changed where he had his hands, and that might be contributing to his strong run at AA.  Have you heard about any mechanical changes Alex Lodise might have made?  His strikeout rate evaporated at High A and is still lower in a small sample at AA than it was in Low A.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be honest and say that watching 2025 Gil versus now doesn’t reveal anything I would consider a change.

Eric A Longenhagen: Lodise I’d say his angle of attack has changed some

Eric A Longenhagen: When his hands load his barrel is more vertical now

BaseballBundesliga: You’ve said Laz Montes contact rate isn’t going to play. Assuming the Ms know that, is the call up just because the strength of schedule is bad? Let him fail in an environment he can’t slug his way out of?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a beam of sunshine and positivity which is exactly what the doctor ordered for that group. They’re toast, imo, it’s a low-stakes way to get his feet wet and see how he does against big league stuff.

I Like Big Buxton: What does Emmanuel Rodriguez have to do to get a look this month? He’s out of options next year, so the Twins should be getting him some MLB experience, right? Should he have been called up instead of Jenkins?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re fighting for a playoff spot so they should be putting their best guys out there, which I think is clearly Jenkins. They’re outfield mix on the 40-man is crowded and they need to cull some of it, which I imagine might include trading E Rod

CherryTomato: Any recent notes on Brett Bateman? Obviously he hits the ball on the ground a bunch and in the bigs is running a high BABIP but curious if his hit tool is good enough to make him a borderline regular.

Eric A Longenhagen: His bat-to-ball feel is special enough that he’s something, he’s Ernie Clement but in a corner OF spot. Note the enormous gap between his xwOBA and actual wOBA. I think he’s more of a 40 than a 45 or 50.

ethanlowe: do you think De Paula starts 2027 in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, that roster is old enough to conclude it will experience considerable turnover.

bdelbanco: Is Yostin Pena on is way to the top 100 and an upgraded FV?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s possible. The way the K’s have stayed down even after a two-level promotion is very exciting.

George: Very specific question, but back in April you speculated Luis Perales might get an additional option year based on  his injury recovery timeline. I’m curious whether you’ve heard an update to that. Feels relevant as his control might still not be ready for the major league bullpen right away next year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually don’t know, lemme ask someone and see if I can get an answer before the end of chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: His stuff is great, but yeah you can see why I preferred the Boston end of that trade.

Lil Nubber: Will there be a Rule 5 draft this offseason? Will any teams get aggressive with their 40 man decisions betting that there won’t be?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think there will be. It has been a topic of conversation at the field the last couple of weeks, scouts with teams who I think have a crunch telling me their team bet on the Rule 5 getting banged.

ljax1979: Overall, do you think the Royals farm system has improved or regressed this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Improved. Gomez played as well as hoped, got good seasons from Chourio, Lamkin and Shields, fun/deep draft class because of under-slot Zion, Hammond hit pretty well… good year

Hecubot: Henry Bolte is third on the A’s in fWAR at 1.9 over 98 games.  He’s one of the only guys on the team with positive numbers for offense, defense and baserunning. Fastest guy in baseball. wRC+ of 106 and his recent two homer game showed his easy power to the opposite field.  He’s actively retooling his swing at the major league level to get more balls in the air. Looks like 3.0 fWAR is his floor.  Any reevaluation on your part?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna stick to my guns on Crawford, Ewing, and Bolte guys.

Eric A Longenhagen: and Josh Baez

Eric A Longenhagen: Prospects can’t all turn out great. It’s useful to point out when you think they’re just going to be okay, and for me Bolte is one of them.

Rayball: Any changes to your Joshua Baez outlook after his first 62 big league ABs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Our 40 hit tool grade was too enthusiastic, he’s going to strike over a third of the time.

Rayball: Cade Winquest have any possibility of being an SP down the line?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an athletic delivery but in the outings I’ve seen he doesn’t have that kind of command. Curveball-heavy reliever.

bosoxforlife: I am of the opinion that the Orioles put one over on the Red Sox in the Eyanson, Azocar, Witherspoon and Rivas trade for Rutschman. Do you have the same view?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was a lot to give up for a year and a half of Adley, as much as I love him. But if I told you, of that group, that only Eyanson pans out, how would you feel about it. Everyone of that foursome has stuff that might undo them. Witherspoon I liked pre-draft but he’s been bad, he’s a reclamation project at this point. Azocar chases. Rivas is years and years away. Eyanson’s delivery is scary… Let’s just let it play out.

Philip Christy: I’m sure you get this question a lot: is Franklin Arias the Red Sox 2027 Opening Day shortstop?

Eric A Longenhagen: IDK, you’re asking me to predict the behavior of a franchise that has, at times, behaved strangely. I think a lot of it is going to depend on how Story looks the last month+ of the season.

Joel: How has Josuar Gonzalez‘s performance since being promoted to Low A changed your longer term view of him, if at all. Know its a small sample. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Healthy and playing well, the best defender of their young SS group, will be elevated into the 55 tier, at least.

bersmr: Thoughts on Walcott? Is it a hot streak? Is he the best prospect in baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Love him, remember he was in the 4th to 6th range overall before he got hurt. Absolutely talented and projectable enough to be the top overall guy. Wanna see him play shortstop before the season is over, please.

Jatheesh Srikantharajah: Was Brody Hopkins sudden loss of control de to mechanical adjustments? What happened?

Eric A Longenhagen: He made huge mechanical changes on arrival in TB but his strikes didn’t totally evaporate until this season. He’s now in the bullpen and hasn’t walked anyone in his last four appearances. I think there’s a chance you see him in Tampa’s bullpen before the end of the year and maybe as a postseason weapon. I won’t quit liking this guy.

apeloton: Any thoughts on BA’s reporting on the MiLB ball this week, and does it change your views on anyone? Was kind of an open secret but hadn’t seen it quantified in that depth previously

Eric A Longenhagen: It impacts the way I view year-over-year changes to guys’ performance. You need the context of this season’s baseball rather in addition to the players’ career progression. We won’t be looking at guys’ power data this offseason and assuming “Hey, he got better!” because they all did. But as you said, and as both Brendan and I have addressed in this space since basically April, this has been a known thing all season.

R.B. Urgess: How much do you buy into the concerns about Florentino’s contact rates?

Eric A Longenhagen: Enough to have had him toward the back of the 100 instead of the front. Based on the nature of questions about him in this space, I’d guess he has been a good bit over-valued by the Air/Pull% Gooners. No offense to those guys, it’s good to identify the players who have outlier data in that category, but yeah you watch Florentino and look at other elements of the data and there are issues.

Ben Zimmermann: Is Vance Honeycutt‘s AA success real and a sign he’s finally putting it together?

Eric A Longenhagen: C’mon.

Vee: Do draftees ever go to fall league? That seems like it would be a long year. I’d love to keep watching Caden Sorrell hit.

Eric A Longenhagen: They would back in the day, but it’s more rare now. I think Ethan Petry was our only one last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sorrell is a good candidate, any advanced college hitter is a good one.

viceroy: Would you update Kade Anderson’s command grades given the season he’s had?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, but I don’t think it’s plus or anything.

rbower: Do we think Jace LaViolette will ever hit enough? The K rates have been hideous

Eric A Longenhagen: No

Matthew: Do you think Owen Ayers has what it takes to be a starting catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Patrick Burke: Thinking about Spencer Jones’s moderate success and how it maps to what Andrew Fischer is doing. How can you judge if a prospect can still be a good hitter even if they have a high K Rate? Is what Jones is doing sustainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can be if you’re hitting for enough power when you actually make contact, and if you’re dangerous against pitches all over the zone. Ohtani and Schwarber, etc. whiff a ton, but they can also crush a pitch in on their hands, as well as down and away from them… they whiff but still cover the zone with power. The guys I’m more worried about having sustained success are the ones who whiff way more than any good big leaguer, which includes Murakami (a more flush comp for Fischer from a body/swing standpoint), Jones and Fischer, whose contact rates are in the 60-62% area.

Eric A Longenhagen: There have been, each year, more and more players with sub-70% contact rates. Teams are more and more comfortable with the whiffing if there’s power to be had when contact is made. Fischer theoretically does the things you’d want someone to do who is going to perform despite K’ing a third of the time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Murakami since the break is hitting .188

Eric A Longenhagen: But still has a 108 wRC+ becaus eof walks and power

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, I ran the light a bit this week and need to split. Thanks for coming again this week. I’m traveling next week but still anticipate I’ll be able to chat. See you then.