Evaluating the Brewers’ Return for Corbin Burnes
Late last night, the Milwaukee Brewers sent Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles for two 25-year-old players – left-handed pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz – as well as a Competitive Balance Round A pick in the 2024 draft (pick no. 34 overall). Milwaukee’s active roster is worse today without Burnes, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since moving into the rotation full-time in 2021. But the player portion of return for one year of Burnes, who is slated to hit free agency after the season, succeeds in threading the small market needle by providing both short- and long-term reinforcement to the big league club, as both players are major league ready and also under club control for the next six seasons. Burnes was unlikely to re-sign with Milwaukee, and the Brewers get a comp pick similar to the one they would have received had they extended him a qualifying offer after the 2024 season, plus two good, young players.
Let’s talk about those players, starting with Ortiz. A fourth rounder in 2019, Ortiz has a career .286/.357/.449 line in the minors and reached the big leagues in 2023. With so many other infielders, chiefly Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, also in the upper-level mix for playing time, the Orioles had a surplus of players like this in their system. Ortiz was a top 100 prospect last offseason and ended the 2023 season as my 57th overall prospect. His profile was initially rooted in his plus combination of defense and feel for contact, but in 2023, he traded some of that contact for meaningfully more power. Ortiz’s underlying contact quality took a leap across the board, most notably his hard-hit rate, which rose from 31% in 2022 to 46% in 2023. This was coupled with a noticeable shift in his physicality, as Ortiz looked bigger and stronger. Ortiz’s contact rates, both overall and in-zone, dropped a tad compared to 2022 and he’s a bit chase-prone, but his well-rounded offensive output should clear the relatively low bar for middle infielders.
While a capable shortstop, Ortiz is not quite the defender that Willy Adames is. Unless Adames is also traded, Ortiz is more likely to wind up playing second base, where he is an exceptional, Gold Glove-caliber defender. His range and acrobatics are rare for that position. If not for Rhys Hoskins’ presence at first base, Milwaukee’s current projected group of Adames, Ortiz, and Brice Turang would be one of the best infield defenses in baseball. Ortiz projects as an everyday middle infielder at either position and is talented enough to be a part of Milwaukee’s core for the next half decade.
As for Hall, back when it looked like he had a better chance of remaining a starter, he was one of the best couple of pitching prospects in baseball. His velocity was peaking in the upper 90s, he was flashing a plus slider and changeup, and for a minute, it looked like he was getting his walks under control. Multiple elbow maladies (tendinitis and a stress reaction) derailed what otherwise might have been a 2021 debut and kept Hall on the shelf until after the start of the 2022 season; he pitched 13.2 big league innings late in the season. He then struggled badly enough with walks that after 12 Triple-A starts to begin 2023 (15% BB%, 5.14 FIP), the Orioles shifted him into the bullpen. He came up again in August and pitched well down the stretch, earning a spot on the Orioles’ postseason roster. When we last saw Hall, he was pumping 96-98 mph uphill fastballs past Rangers hitters in an out-of-hand playoff game.
If the Brewers want to give it a try, the way they can make the most of this deal would be to successfully return Hall to a starting role, but he has had some combination of control or health issues for long enough that I’d consider this unlikely. Hall’s arm swing is long and very difficult to repeat. It badly impacts the quality and location of his secondary stuff, especially his changeup, which has a bad habit of finishing in the meaty parts of the strike zone. The explosiveness of Hall’s fastball allows him to be imprecise with that pitch and still dominate, but the same is not true of his other offerings. Many pitchers with such long arm actions at least try to shorten up to find a more consistent release; to my knowledge, that has never been attempted here. This is easier said than done, of course, and changes may put Hall at risk of regressing in other, unforeseen ways. His fastball alone is likely to make him a late-inning reliever. If the Brewers deploy him in a multi-inning capacity as a bridge to Devin Williams, they can keep his innings count high enough to make a rotation move down the line. Hall is no longer rookie eligible, which is why you won’t see him on our forthcoming Orioles list.
What about the comp pick? The upcoming draft isn’t especially strong, but at the moment, that’s really only apparent at the very top of the draft class, which is devoid of impact high school talent. By the time selection day arrives, it’s likely enough that good players will have emerged to ensure the player Milwaukee selects at pick 34 is at least close to the typical player quality. Also remember that the Brewers aren’t just getting the guy who is theoretically the 34th-best player in the draft, but also additional bonus pool space that could allow them to be more creative or aggressive with their other picks. For example, the Brewers’ proper first round pick will be 17th overall. The slot value of last year’s 17th overall pick was just shy of $4.2 million; the slot value of last year’s 34th pick was just shy of $2.5 million. Milwaukee could target a player seeking close to $6 million (slot value at pick no. 8) with pick 17 and still give nearly a million bucks to their pick at 34. There are many, many permutations of this possible across their entire draft class, and if Milwaukee’s recent M.O. is any indication, they are more likely to spread that bonus space out across several selections to try to have as deep of a class as they can.
This trade marks the unceremonious end to the most recent era of Brewers baseball. Brandon Woodruff’s late-season injury, the departures of Craig Counsell and David Stearns, and finally this deal remove many of the main characters from the past half decade of the franchise. Conversely, the wave of young players who are just getting their big league footing should make the Brewers a fun team to watch scrap for a wide open NL Central crown. Of all the projected members of the Brewers’ starting lineup, only Christian Yelich and Hoskins are over 30 years old, and Adames is the only other starter over 27. William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, and Ortiz make up a formidable young core of hitters whose careers are just getting started.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Injury problems were predictable for Hall. His parents should have named him “200 IP Hall.”
The hope was he would be spared when they changed the name to injured list.
Comments must be full of salty brewers fans to have this many downvotes for a funny comment!
The first was was something like +20 and the second one was around zero yesterday. I’m thinking that the earlier one better reflects its actual reaction than the 0 and -20 votes that it’s showing now.
Somebody must feel that baseball is SERIOUS! BUSINESS! with no room for levity.
Or maybe DL Hall has a large family that does not appreciate dad jokes.
lol every single comment in this chain is negative today what happened on Sunday
On a more serious note, if the Orioles extend the QO to Burnes after this year and he signs elsewhere, they get that comp pick back. Just one year delayed.
The comp pick and the competitive balance pick are effectively the same value. They’re going to be something like 5 spots away from each other, but one year later. It’s rare that we have something in a trade that is so obviously 1-for-1 in terms of value.
This is higher on Ortiz and lower on Hall than I expected. If the Brewers don’t think Hall can be a starter long-term then the upside of this deal is a lot lower. But this seems to be more bullish on Ortiz than the last thing he wrote up (which was that his offensive profile had solidified but that he was only going to be an average defender at shortstop and would be a cleaner fit at second base).
I don’t know, I feel like it’s pretty in line with his previous statements about Ortiz? At the same time that he downgraded his defense somewhat, he also highlighted the same power and hard contact improvements noted here. I think it’s consistant to say Eric has viewed him as a capable but not standout defender at SS, a fantastic one at 2B if forced to move over, and a high-likelihood league avg or better bat with some pop.
This seems very un-SABR and old head of me to ponder, but I wonder if you could measure how Top 100 prospects did in their rookie seasons with at least a minimum number of ABs, i.e. not 10 but say a couple hundred ABs and then plot their future performance based on how well or how poorly they fared. For example, I’d guess that if a prospect came up and hit .178 in 215 ABs that its very unlikely that they ever become a good MLB player. I realize fully that there are no doubt examples the other way, but if I were a betting man, I’d bet that if a player performs badly at magnitude, then their future prospects are very very dim. I’d be interested to see that data. And I’m just referring to Top 100 prospects, not every player.
This thinking led to that famous poll where like 75% preferred Brett Lawrie to Mike Trout.
I agree with your curiosity about this and would also be very interested to see the results of that type of study.
He is going to be 26 years old and projected as a .250 hitter with so so power. Big time overrated. Decent player but not more.
I think the real lump on Ortiz is that he doesn’t elevate the ball. He smashes the ball but his barrel rate is pretty low for someone with that much hard contact.
His overall contact rates, exit velocities, and defense all point to good stuff. But the chase and grounders need fixing.
I’m having a harder time with the offensive expectations than the defense. Defense is hard to evaluate, and at the minimum ZiPS (which does take some minor league defensive data) thinks he’ll be good. But ZiPS also takes batted ball data too–I think from the minors as well–and has him at near and 80 wRC+.
Steamer likes him better but the more I look at him the more I think this is a low-end utility guy who can back up shortstop. Kind of like a right-handed version of Turang. I think other people are seeing this scouting report and thinking he’s going to be more like Andres Gimenez or Bryson Stott and I don’t see that at all. I think one of these guys is going to get bumped by Eric Brown Jr in 2025 (who isn’t an elite prospect himself) and the Brewers will actively be trying to replace the other one around that time as well.
What makes you so down on his offensive potential? Have you watched him hit at all?
Take a look at his projections and his age and you will know why a lot of us feel he is average at best as a hitter. Less than average I would bet.
I’m thinking more Jeremy Peña than Stott.
I saw someone comp Carson Williams to Pena the other day. I actually buy the Williams-to-Pena comp more than some of the other ones that have been thrown around for Williams.
It’s nice to have another example of a shortstop with bad plate discipline who is of starting caliber…that isn’t Javier Baez (who nobody should ever be compared to).
In any case, if Ortiz is going to succeed it’s going to be either an Erick Aybar zone situation or because he’s hitting around league average and providing plus defense at second. It’s a real path to being a league-average regular, and occasionally above-average, it’s just a bit of a tightrope until you see someone actually do it at the major league level.
The outlook really does boil down to whether you think he’s an 80-90 wRC+ guy or in the 90-100 range.
The latter is a good starter, assuming the scouting reports saying he’ll be at +10 DEF hold up.
Ortiz have much more power than Turang. His exit velos are better and ISO supports it. Ortiz ISO in the minors is between 150-230. Turang was 070-130. Its not even close.
Do 26 year Olds fix chasing and worm burning though?
25-26 now basically is the peak years for mlb players(used to be like 27), basically just 2-3 shy of decline starting.
I don’t think ortiz is terrible but I would worry a little that a lot of his physical peak has already been wasted in the minors.
Shortstops tend to peak their defense early like 22-27 and then slowly decline. Ortiz being 26 and still raw in some aspects is not great, there is a chance that his offense is still getting better while his defense is already declining.
Ortiz already bulked up the last two years which helped his hitting but already slightly downgraded his formerly elite defense, Eric only has him as a 50.
If that slips to a 45 his offense needs to get a lot better quickly before his defense and athleticism starts to decline.
No matter how carefully I look at it Ortiz is overrated. How he got ranked in the top 100 is beyond me. Top 100 is full of 19-22 year olds….Ortiz is already 25 and half way to 26. I don’t see much power or much of a batting average.
I think the Brewers did well here. I’m surprised we haven’t seen more Hall/Hader comparisons. Both drafted by the O’s, traded away, big fastball, command issues, starter/reliever questions.
I’m not sure how many people remember that Hader was predominantly a starter throughout his MiLB career. Of his 110 appearances, 95 of them were starts. His AAA ERA was ~5.3. When he was initially called up, the idea was that he’d start as a RP but eventually be stretched out. He never started a MLB game. Things turned out OK for him.
Hall has appeared in 96 MiLB games, 81 of which have been starts. He certainly looks like an elite LH MIRP fireman type to me (which is sad because I’m a Cubs fan). He has more promising secondaries than Hader ever did and the Brewers SP depth is starting to resemble the NE Patriots QB room, so he might be pressed into starting service near-term. But I think he ends up Hader-esque in his career arc after that.
the reason there aren’t more comparisons is that it’s hard to compare anyone to Hader. He’s really good!
Hader was a more dominant MiLB pitcher than Hall IIRC.
You are not recalling correctly. Hader had one great ~60 IP stretch at AA where he ran a 90+% strand rate but that’s about it. Again, he made 26 AAA starts, tossed ~120 innings and finished with a ~5.3 ERA. Hall wasn’t special during his time in AAA but he was better than that.
This happens in top farm systems. Hall and Ortiz are both top 100 guys, so if they were coming from Boston instead of Baltimore, there would be more praise for Milwaukee’s return.
I’ve said for four years that D.L. Hall would end up as a high leverage reliever, but the Brewers have been so good at developing pitchers that keeping him in the rotation is worth a shot. It’s rare for guys to improve their command dramatically after six minor league seasons, but it’s even more rare to find a pitcher with four above average offerings. At absolute worst, Hall should end up being a dominant reliever, perhaps even at Hader’s level.
Then Ortiz was overshadowed by the O’s embarrassment of infield riches, but he’s really good. He has more pop than you would think, makes contact a good percentage of the time, and should be fine at shortstop. While he lacks the upside of Henderson or Holliday, his high floor makes him a valuable piece for the Brewers over the next six years.
I didn’t know anything about Ortiz until I read up on him after the trade, but I was getting Orlando Arcia vibes from him. Do you think that’s an accurate comp? Maybe Arcia with a pinch more defensive upside?
Arcia was in his fifth MLB season at 25. Ortiz is still in AAA
Fair point, but Ortiz really should have been in the majors last season, Baltimore just didn’t have room for him. Plus, he’s a college draftee, which often means a later start date.
Sorry but you don’t get “Blocked” until you are 25. They make room for you if you are good enough or trade you to another team.
In a normal system that’s true.
The O’s ML class was anything but normal. Henderson, Holliday, Westburg, to say nothing of other MLB-ready 45 types like Norby and Vavra were famously an exceptional middle-infield class for any MLB system. Plus Urias is a deserving major leaguer with 3-years of control left and Mayo providing pressure at the corner so they can’t just see if any of them have the bat for the corner to relieve pressure.
In this context, yes, you do get “Blocked” until you are 25. A trade of Ortiz has been expected since last offseason, but they were right to let him raise his stock a bit in the minors this season before they pulled the trigger on one.
Ortiz wasn’t really blocked last year though. Last year urias (98 ops+), Matteo (70) and Frazier (94 ops+) combined for 1100 PAs.
Couldn’t ortiz break into that?
It seems that Elias did believe that ortiz good AAA numbers where a result of his advanced age in AAA and wouldn’t translate to mlb.
Excellent point. Joey Ortiz is so far behind any real prospect his age. If he was any good he would not STILL be in the minor leagues.
I would be pretty surprised if Ortiz didn’t end up being significantly better than Orlando Arcia. I would expect Joey to have a better average, better walk rate, and better slugging. Arcia’s max career EV is 109.9, whereas Ortiz topped 114 last season.
Come on man. Ortiz is projected to hit 8 home runs and hit .247 by Zips. He is almost 26 years old. I have no clue how people think he has great offensive potential. When ?? when he gets to 32 years old ??
Longenhagen has Hall as an FV45. That is not top-100. Or even top-150 when you count all the FV45+’s.
Eric put Hall #64 on the 2023 FanGraphs list. Baseball America had Hall at #75 in their last top 100, and #52 the year before that.
Baseball America has Joey Ortiz out of their latest top-100. We should average all the latest prospect lists so that our “top-100” doesn’t have 150-200 names on it.
If we averaged Fangraphs and Baseball America, DL Hall would not be top-100 and Joey Ortiz would barely be in the top-100.
Thank you. The Brewers did poorly in this trade. Ortiz has shown nothing but defence. And DL Hall has a high ceiling but the injury risk is severe. I like him. I don’t count on him.
The statement about nothing but D is simply not true.
In 2022 in AAA he slashed .346/.400/.567 over 115 PAs, good for a 154 wRC+.
In 2023 in AAA, he slashed .321/.378/.507 over 389 PAs, good for a 121 wRC+.
Part of his age/timeline is losing a year to COVID, which people seem to forget about. When COVID hit, he was a 20 year old that had only played in low A. Then he lost all of 2020/age 21 season. He came back at 22, moved to high A for 89 PAs, then moved to AA for 67 PA to finish the year.
Started the next year at AA as a 23 year old, moved to AAA for 115 PA to end the season.
That brings us to last year as a 24 year old who had already proven himself in AA and AAA and had nowhere to play in the majors. He spent all season at AAA with a couple cups of coffee, and again proved himself at AAA.
He hasn’t had an ISO under .186 since 86 PAs in high A in 2021. He hasn’t had a below league average offensive season since he was 20 in low A back in 2019 in a different, pre-COVID world, which was also his very first exposure to professional ball, and even then it was a 96 wRC+.
I have no idea why the hate on Ortiz, but if you don’t believe in him that’s fine. But to say that he hasn’t shown any offensive promise in the minors, or that he wasn’t blocked, are both demonstrably false.
Are you sure you are talking about Joey Ortiz. He profiles as an average hitter at best. Probably less. Take a look at any projection system and you will see. He will turn 26 years old !!
I like this deal for the Brewers, but IMO, Ortiz is the main piece, and if I didn’t think that Ortiz was good, I’d really hate this deal.
Hall is the high upside project that probably doesn’t work out, but for the upside of Andrew Miller/Josh Hader is a nice piece to have in the return, and then a comp pick to make them whole on what they would’ve gotten if they decided to keep Burnes.
I think Burnes is the 2nd best pitcher in baseball, I’d want him over anyone but Strider, so I figured I’d be on the other side of this, but I’m really shocked at how Ortiz is getting dismissed here.
An almost average hitting middle infielder with above average defense and baserunning is an average player. He’s almost guaranteed to be this – at least an average player, with 6-years of the type of team control that typically underpays players in arbitration.
And if he’s an average hitter, he’s an above average player.
Personally, I think he’ll end up being more of a 110 wRC+ type player, and if he is that’s like Jorge Polanco but with good defense.
To put that in context, his 80th and 90th percentiles would be like something along the lines of Ketel Marte or Marcus Semien. Who are both actually decent comps as hitters, but I think they’re even better comps in terms of overall ceiling, value, and uneven trajectories.
If you think he’s a bum, I get being down on the deal. But I think you should do a bit deeper dive on Ortiz, he was pretty much a universal top 100 player last offseason IIRC, and he only went out and added legitimate pop while having a great season. He’s been written about a lot since last offseason and I don’t think you’ll find any negative articles about him. Trading a little ceiling for a higher floor is a good thing when you have to get value for trading a stud, like the Brewers did. Hall might legitimately be a nothing, including a chance he’s a 0 WAR guy for them. If anything else, there’s no chance that’s the case for Ortiz.
yeah, but did you know that ortiz is almost 26?
One big reason for that is Hall has had multiple semi serious elbow injuries by the age of 25. Hader, meanwhile, was reported a few weeks ago to have “received feedback from teams that he has one of the cleanest medical files that they have seen in a free agent”, per sources from Fansided’s Robert Murray.
Thanks for this; I wasn’t aware of this context. On a related note, I look forward to Brad Wieck making his triumphant return to Wrigley in 2030 or so. I suppose this is a good time to remind all of us that TINSTAAPP.
Disagree but you are correct to focus on DL Hall because Joey Ortiz is nothing anywhere near special. Hall might be great as he has the arm for sure but there are serious risks of injury. I like him make no mistake but cross your fingers for health. He may well be the closer after the Brewers trade Devin Williams next week.
It’s crazy to me that Christian Yelich is the wizened veteran of this group, haha!
I used to be young, dammit!
Anyway, the profile of Ortiz makes him sound very interesting – average-ish offense and +10 DEF sounds like a 55.
This also fails to acknowledge that they only way the Brewers were able to sign Rhys Hoskins for ~$17MM was by knowing that they would be trading Corbin Burnes and his~ $17MM salary. There was no way they were paying both guys.
That was my take. They too are BALLY Sports victims so they’ll get less in ’24 than ’23 and for ’25 they’re currently homeless on TV.
It smacks of the similar moves Cleveland made to fit Barlow in their budget.
So if we cast the Brewer moves as Burnes for Ortiz, Hall, Hoskins, and the 34th pick, the trade isn’t lopsided at all.
It’s sad that money matters that much for many reams but that’s the reality of MLB local TV rights policies.
(who are the mush-for-brain clowns that are downvoting these two posts?? For what?)
Probably folks who don’t understand the extent of cord cutting, the withering of cable live TV, and the inevitable impact on RSNs.
Alternately, they believe team budgets can be infinite just because owners are rich.
Doesn’t matter. They’re entitled to their opinions.
Dude this is weird. I’m thinking bots have infiltrated the comment section. It must be. If they were humans, one of the downvoters would chime in.
I didn’t downvote, but perhaps people are wondering why spend 36M on Hoskins at all if you are going to trade Burnes.
I mean you’re telling me that you couldn’t find a AAAA 1B to roughly approximate Hoskins’ numbers at a fraction of the cost? I don’t understand why teams pay middling 1B so much money when there’s about 40 CJ Crons lying around in AAA and shuttling.
No there aren’t. Cron’s numbers were hugely augmented by Coors.
If you think there are 27-homer guys just shuttling around the minors, dude .. really.
I’d bet a not small amount of money that Hoskins doesn’t approach 27 HRs this season. He’s just a guy.
ZIPS has him at .236 22 HR and 69 RBI with a .340 WOBA. Not exactly Freddie Freeman.
Carlos Santana hit 23 and just signed cheap. Mark Vientos could be had cheap and he would certainly hit 27 if he played.
Wow….all these down votes. You make a good point. Spend way less but still get 75% of Hoskins.
Because Burns was leaving in a year.
People are mad at the brewers for being cheap but yet to see someone disagree with me-I was driving so salaries were off a little but the point stands. Minnesota just did a cheaper version of this w Santana-the twins are really getting pinched by the TV deal
They Brewers aren’t cheap at all. They’ve more recently been too focused on profits at the expense of maximizing a competitive window though.
The Orioles, OTOH, very much are cheap.
Every single major league baseball team receives $60.1 million for TV rights from the deals signed by ESPN, Fox, and TBS with the league. Before selling a single ticket or any local deals, they now start with $60.1.
The postseason bonus pool was $108 million. Rangers received $38.8, Brewers $3.5, Orioles $808.5K.
So the Brewers received $63.6 million and had a year-end payroll of $126 million. They stretched for Braun, then stretched for Yelich and then stretched for Cain. They spent to supplement with Grandal, and Avisail, and Wong, and Cutch. They ended 2022 with $137 million payroll. They also ended 2019 with a $132 million payroll. So in a time when they were receiving more league supplemental revenue – not even counting revenue sharing – they couldn’t push the team salary more than $5 million after a continued run of playoff appearances? They could have and should have, they’re not cheap but they stopped short and could’ve done more. Focused on profits instead of the team, fans, or window of opportunity, or basically that they blew it, is fair criticism.
The Orioles given $61 million and had a year end payroll of $66 million. They ended 2022 with a $63 million payroll. 2021 with $63, 2020 with $65 million. They’ve used a bad TV deal as an excuse to run consistent payrolls that are far lower than should be accepted for a team in the AL East in a large market, even given territory disputes and local TV deals. They deserve the cheap and greedy criticism.
Forbes has Orioles 2022 revenue at $260M and the Brewers at $294M. MLBPA gets about 45% of total MLB revenue. Contending teams should have payroll at 50-60% of revenue, but the Orioles have been only in the $65M – $95M over the past few years and the Brewers only around $125M.
I think you’re right about the O’sbeing cheap, but maybe new ownership will get their payroll up to the $135M range once local TV revenues are established in the transition to Amazon.
The Brewers giving up on 2024 for these two average players is a sad statement about the profit driven mindset of their cheap owner. I guess third or fourth is good enough as long as he pockets another $30 million in profit.
Are you aware of how much less they’re getting for TV rights?
Their TV deal sucks, but it hasn’t been changed in the bankruptcy.
Last I heard Bally was dropping all MLB contracts after ’24 and cutting all their ’24 deals. As of yesterday they were going to cut everybody’s payouts.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/as-bally-sports-saga-drags-on-rangers-fans-awaiting-solution-shouldn-t-hold-their-breath/ar-BB1hDv87
They’ve been talking to Amazon about an investment in return for streaming through prime but so far it’s just talk. No deal.
And the bankruptcy is still in court.
If you can’t afford to run the team competitively, sell it for a massive profit to one of the many entities or individuals who will
The problem is that with the current level of revenue sharing baseball is not economically viable in Milwaukee. Their TV deal is awful and they’ve largely maxed out their attendance (they deserve a ton of credit for this) so there’s not a whole lot more that is untapped.
The Brewers, like most other teams, could probably run payrolls a good $30M higher but even then they’re still going to have trouble keeping too many stars past the arbitration years. Not to mention, if every team spent $30M it is unlikely that any of the teams would improve since they would all be competing for the same players!
You might say that the right answer is to move the team but since MLB teams primarily exist to extract taxpayer dollars they’re not going anywhere. And even then, it’s not like there are any attendance problems. It’s the TV deal.
The (obvious/simplistic) long term answer is for MLB to take over all TV contracts and pool the revenues: half equally and the other half by viewership. Or some such mix.
It’s not just the small budget teams and the union tgey have to satisfy but also the big media market teams. Obvious won’t fly easy.
It is not going to be easy because not all owners run the team as a hobby. In fact, most run their teams as revenue generators.
Selling to somebody else depends on finding somebody in the team town who can afford it or front for a out of towner who can.
Not easy.
Much of the discussion is TV revenue, but a lot of the issue is debt cost. These teams, when purchased for $500m, normally it’s leveraged. The owner puts up ~$50m, some other investors add some. The remainder is $400mm in debt. These aren’t 30 year fixed. It’s year to year. At 3%, that’s not much, $12mm annually. Now, that’s closer to $50-$60mm. That’s a big part for some franchises too.
They already do to an extent. The national deals with ESPN, Fox and TBS net each team $60.1 million a year from the league. Plus the playoff bonus pool – $108 million last year, $38.8 million to the Rangers – comes from national TV revenues.
The teams that own their stations or have extra cushy deals would vote against it in any owners meeting, so I can’t see the owners signing off on the league taking over. That’s probably the biggest obstacle. The rest is would be logistics and transparency, but I doubt we ever get there. IIRC an absurd owners majority is needed, like 25+ votes to pass..
Bashing owners for trying to make profits in the entertainment business will always get upvotes, even on analytics websites.
As Dave Cameron noted years back on this very site, baseball analytics fans overall are very, very politically left-wing. So these sites will always have lots of upvoted bashing of owners for trying to make $$$.
Upon transitioning from Dave to Meg, Gettleman pushed Fangraphs very avowedly political either for personal or business reasons. They dropped that emphasis years back now, but the Righties who quit then haven’t checked back in. And the Lefties are still here. And downvoting away.
“As Dave Cameron noted years back on this very site, baseball analytics fans overall are very, very politically left-wing”
The number of downvotes to your comment validates this. Right wing fans are all nodding in agreement with you…
Education creates left wingers of people with souls.
Are you aware every MLB team is getting $60.1 million a year for the ESPN, TBS, and Fox deals that MLB signed? Completely independent of any local or regional TV deals.
I totally agree with you. While Milwaukee’s return is fine in isolation , it’s diluted by the fact that with Burnes they are positioned to contend in a weak division. The outgoing WARP has higher marginal value than it would ordinarily.
I think if Woodruff’s arm didn’t explode the Brewers wouldn’t be in a weird purgatory situation where they’re buying Hoskins but selling Burnes. Couple that with the Cardinals finally stocking up their rotation, the Cubs making incremental improvements with the players they have plus spending money on higher end talents like Suzuki and Swanson, and Cincinnati climbing out of their rebuild with a deep young team, it was always going to be a tougher road to win the NL Central
I wonder if this affects the trade market for Cease now that Burnes has “set” a price
Cease brings back more, no?
2 years of team control at $8M and pending vs 1 year at $15.6M.
Burnes is better, but Cease is going to be paid a little more total for two years than Burnes is for one. Pretty much equal production the last 2 years. That extra year of control is valuable.
No. Burnes has a far better track record of success, whereas Cease only has the one dominant season in which his slider reached a level that it hasn’t come remotely close to before or since.
Cease isn’t getting moved this winter, as Chris Getz completely overplayed his hand by demanding a fortune, and now the most likely suitors have all addressed their needs with other pitchers. Chicago will pray that Cease looks anything like 2022, and make the best deal they can at the deadline.
Having, and demanding a high price for, a player on the trading block isn’t “overplaying your hand”. Starting pitching is always in demand, particularly at the trade deadline and among teams that think they are one starter away from a deep playoff push.
Supply will just eventually have to meet the demand. That’s the great thing about prices in a marketplace.
When multiple teams publicly announce that they have pulled out of negotiations because the demands are too high, you have overplayed your hand. Getz is showing his inexperience by demanding the moon and not coming down from his initial position. Asking for Jackson Holliday at the deadline was insane, and asking for four top 100 prospects after the stinker that Cease had in 2023 is also insane.
The reality is that as soon as a player’s contract dips under two years of control, their value in trades goes down. History has shown that time and time again. The time to trade Cease was at the last deadline or this winter. Waiting until the next deadline is a major risk, because if Cease posts another season like 2023, he won’t fetch any top 100 prospects at all.
…And have those teams backed out of Cease permanently, or do you think they would be more amenable to a lower price?
Teams “pulling out of negotations” isn’t permanent -it’s those other teams publicly telling the Sox to lower their price. Baseball front offices use the media just like politicians do.
Once again…excellent post and excellent points. When people have to actually back up claims with hundreds or thousands of dollars the truth comes out. In the NFBC Dylan Cease is the # 50 pitcher. Roughly # 35 starter.
Does it matter though? The sox do need the big return for cease because their org is in shambles.
Imo that is the ideal time to gamble, either cease bounces back and you get a huge haul at the deadline (when at least two bit contenders will have lost a TOR starter due to injury) or cease doesn’t bounce back and you get a very modest return.
Getting one top100 prospect for cease now just doesn’t move the needle much, this is the time to shoot for the moon and if it doesn’t work plan B is a multi year tank job.
The sox haven’t been run well but they got great returns for quintana, Eaton and sale and also recently for giolito.
Getz really can wait, yes cease value is going down slightly but look what return even 40 year Olds scherzer and Verlander got.
If cease bounces back he would get one lower level top100 prospect even as a half year rental.
That is an if of course but sox need to take that risk at this point.
Excellent post. Excellent points.
He probably brings back a little more, but not a ton. Based on reports, it really seems like Chicago is just overvaluing Cease vs how the market sees him. But who knows, it’s all rumor based.
I don’t think over valuing exists at this point in baseball. Getz exactly does know the market, anyone who understands surplus value does. Just go to steamer, look up dollar per war and there you go.
I think Getz intentionally goes “double or nothing”, he has tested the market, decided he didn’t like the return and now gambles on a bounce back and better return at the deadline. Worst case it is an injury and getting nothing and best case it is a much better return.
I get your point but Burnes is quite a bit better….not just a bit. Dylan Cease if you study his career is not as strong as some feel. He is a good pitcher not a great one.
Yes I wonder as well. Burnes goes cheap and he is clearly better than Cease. The White Sox overplayed their hand. Sure they can wait until the deadline but as Ken Rosenthal said it is risky. He could get hurt or get hit and poof there goes his value.
Interesting comparing this to what the Dodgers gave up for one season of Glasnow, my perception is that Pepiot and Deluca are both higher floor and lower ceiling than either of the guys the Brewers got back, which makes sense for what the Brewers and Rays need. The Brewers rotation and infield is either unproven or on a one year contracts other than Freddy Peralta, the Rays have an established team that needs a constant supply of 2 WAR players earning league minimum. Taking on Margot’s contract is less valuable than a draft pick, but Burnes has thrown a lot more innings than Glasnow.
It feels like the reaction was a lot more positive for the Rays, and I’m wondering if that’s because trading an elite pitcher with one year on their contract was more expected from the Rays than the return either team got.
To be fair, all pitchers have the same floor, unfortunately, though Pepiot seems a better bet to start, which is certainly the differentiator. Deluca might very well be Manny Margot with more years of control.
I agree that everyone expected the Rays to trade Glasnow, so getting anything at all felt good, while–and especially after the Hoskins signing–ppl thought the Brewers were going to hang onto him at least for awhile. Eric’s point about MIL getting young in a hurry is also meaningful, though if they don’t hit a lot, don’t field as well, and have reduced pitching, it’s hard to see them fighting off the Cubs/WC mix like they have been.
How is Deluca higher floor than Ortiz lol
Also DL Hall has a higher ceiling than Pepiot- confused at that
I was googling the Glasnow trade to make a point on the other thread and you are completely right. People loved the Glasnow trade. This is a very similar move with a lot more upside plus the pick. Most analysts seem to be giving this B- to B+ grades for the Brewers, so they aren’t super down on it but the Rays grade was nearly universally an A.
Yeah except the Rays were trading a guy who pitched half as much and made twice as much.
I just looked up what I wrote for the Glasnow trade: “Not sure how I feel about it from the Rays’ end. They clearly prioritized getting rid of all of Glasnow’s salary plus most of Margot’s. Pepiot is a solid gamble. I guess it’s fine.” I think I still agree with that. This is a better return than what the Rays got for Glasnow but it should be better…
What if getting rid of salary mattered to tge Brewers just as it mattered in the Glasnow deal?
Then why sign Hoskins
Trading Burnes paid for Hoskins, as the salaries roughly match. The trade is essentially Burnes for Hall, Ortiz, and Hoskins.
Why sign Hoskins if you just traded away your ace for some future talent and are about to trade away your starting SS (Adames) and potentially your best reliever (Williams)?
No, Hoskins is being paid the money that Canha and Winker were making last season.
they hand out contracts via musical chairs in milwaukee, apparently
Can’t see how the White Sox didn’t see this package as at least a starting place for Cease demands-they really need a guy like Ortiz.
Multiple teams reported that Chris Getz asked for four top 100 prospects, at least one of which needed to be in the top 25. He actually demanded Jackson Holliday at the deadline. Getz is valuing Cease based on what he was in 2022, and no one is willing to pay for that after his performance in 2023.
Getz wasn’t the GM at the deadline
This package is not much better than what they can get for Cease in July 2025. They need an FV55 as the headliner to trade Cease now.
The Brewers probably wanted to hold Burnes until this year’s ASB, but it probably would have been a bad look for a contending team to trade their best player at the deadline for prospects who are not ready to join the major league club.
That assumes that Cease A) doesn’t get hurt; B) doesn’t continue to regress, which all his peripherals suggest he is doing. There’s huge risk to the White Sox current approach. I don’t blame them for making the initial ask high, but from all reports it seems like they are overvaluing him. They should be trying to get a deal done.
He had 1 down season after 1 great season. It’s overreacting to say “all his peripherals” are regressing. (I think we should use “declining” instead of regressing, but that’s a topic for another day.)
I don’t think they should get a deal done, just to take a low return. That’s stupid. People were saying the same thing when they traded Quintana and they wound up getting Cease and Jimenez.
It’s “regression” because 2022 was well above anything Cease had ever produced. His numbers in 2019-2021 were more similar to his metrics in 2023 than his in 2022.
To be fair, Burnes’ numbers have been regressing as well.
His are a decline, not regression, because his level of performance was higher in the past. This happens to all pitchers, as the average peak is 26.
Regression or decline – the result is the same.
Regression tends to be more severe whereas decline is generally more gradual.
The sox actually should risk getting nothing for cease to get the maximum return.
Yes, that would be terrible but one top 75 overall guy and 2 45s doesn’t really move the needle for the sox, an org in terrible shape.
Getz is right to hope for a bounce back plus a contender getting desperate due to injury at the deadline to get a haul because that is the only chance to get back to relevance anytime soon.
Taking the top75 prospect plus two 45s just doesn’t change much for the sox, that would maybe move their farm system from 23rd to 17th or so (numbers made up) which is nice but doesn’t make them a contender.
Now is the time to take a risk, otherwise it is a 4 year tank window anyway.
Getz plays that right, he has to hope for double “luck”, which is cease bouncing back and a team like the dodgers, Astros, braves or rangers losing a key starter to injury so they are basically willing to pay any price.
Yes, the downside of that is cease blowing out his shoulder and not getting the sox anything but that is a risk you have to take at this point.
What is the difference between the pick they got in the trade and the pick they would have received when Burnes left after this season? And do the Orioles get this pick now?
The pick they got is for the 2023 draft, whereas the pick for Burnes turning down the QO would be for the 2024 draft.
Ortiz and Hall are a couple of “what if” guys to me. Milwaukee has to be dreaming on Ortiz developing a lot more power than the single digit HRs he’s projected for, and dreaming on Hall suddenly throwing strikes (and health). It would be easier to imagine if they weren’t both already 25 years old.
Love your post. Ortiz has to be the oldest “prospect” in the world.
I like this deal for both teams. The Orioles’ side needs no further explanation. On the other side, if I’m not mistaken, Ortiz had a Z-contact of ~90% and a maxEV north of 114mph in Triple-A, and the contact rate was still strong in his brief MLB stint ( I’d think that should give him a pretty high offensive floor even if he doesn’t consistently lift the ball, particularly for a 2B, where his defense is plus-plus. DL Hall threw a lot more strikes with the big club than in the minors (small sample, of course), but that tends to stabilize quickly. And he has opportunity. So his long-term median outcome might be “we have Josh Hader at home,” but in the short term, there’s a need in the rotation that he just might have the arsenal to address satisfactorily, if perhaps not spectacularly. And there’s the Comp A pick, which might be an unreleased Radiohead album, but is more likely an actual player. The Brewers did pretty well here.
Really ??? So give me some numbers that you expect Ortiz to reach this year. Zips has him as a poor hitter. 8 home runs and 6 steals with a .247 average. I give him .250 with 12 Home Runs and 10 steals. Not strong.
ZiPS also has him putting up 1.8 WAR in 469 PA!
That’s an above average regular.
1.8 war is slightly below average (2 war). Still that isn’t bad. Ortiz does chase and hit too many grounders so I think it will be low obp, sporadic power and ok average. Like 260/300/400 or so.
You are an expert Eric and deserve so much respect but I just can’t see Ortiz as more than a run of the mill hitter who is excellent defensively. And he is already half way to 26 years old. The top 100 prospects are mostly 19-22 type thing. Ortiz sticks out like a sore thumb. Even for one year of Corbin Burnes the Brewers should have got more. As for DL Hall I would bet the following happens. Adames & Devin Williams are traded. The Brewers return DL Hall to the bull pen and he is named closer. In the immediate future. If I’m a Brewers fan I realize this is a rebuild and the future looks good but they are giving up for 2024. The easy way to prove that is watching Adames and Devin Williams pack their bags. I bet Rhys Hoskins is real happy. (sarcastic)
It’s seems to me the Brewers believe hall can start this season. If not he is a dominant RP for years. I think the brewers did well overall. Sure less chance to win in 2024, but the woodruff injury already killed 2024. Better chance in 2025 + though.
Even if hall is a reliever the deal could be very good. Top end closers with youth and control nowadays land a top50 prospect plus another org top10 guy (see Chapman, Diaz, Miller and many others).
If hall becomes Hader 2.0 he could actually net a better trade return than the one year of burns did.
I would not bother making hall a starter where he has his command come and go but trade Williams, make him the closer and possibly trade him for a haul in 2 and a half years.
I believe once Brewers decided now was time to trade Burnes, it also shadowed IMO another trade that,is coming and that being Williams the closer getting traded. Hall, Uribe, and some other very interesting arms are the future for Brew Crew. So, getting a decent shortstop prospect and potentially getting a lh closer was the ticket they wanted. Certainly didn’t want a 3b with Black coming soon, and their OF with Chourio looks decent.they have a top catcher prospect a year away so the package of both the shortstop and high potential pitcher both having years of control seems like a good target to me.,I also think this trade points out Turang is viewed as a spot guy with wheels and great defense and not a planned starter. Overall, I think Brewers did ok. They didn’t knock it out of the park, but also didn’t take a chance on Burnes getting hurt and having diminished value later.
Imo they should trade both adames and Williams. They do have young hitting talent but the pitching prospects are not on par with that.
Right now the team is projected for high 70s wins, so why not make that 90 losses and give the farm another big boost.
Then you keep down Black till may to manipulate his clock (he is talented but likely not talented enough to win ROY and the extra pick) and try to Form a really good team for 2026.
I don’t hate the return for one year of burns.
The big question is what is the plan going forward. The brewers basically have turned upside down, from bad hitting and good pitching now they have a lot of hitters coming up but a severe lack of pitching, especially in the minors.
Misiorowski has great stuff but bad command like DL hall and both could be relievers, so who is going to start for them in 2025? Are they going to trade for pitching?
Also why sign Hoskins? The brewers rotation is projected 23rd in mlb by depth charts and the team for about 79 wins. Why not tank completely?