Fan Projection Targets – 12/4/2009

by
December 4, 2009

We have over 100 position players already with 30+ projections, but the pitchers are lagging behind. So, with that in mind, today’s targets are: Aaron Harang, Scott Feldman, and John Lannan.

Looking at yesterday’s targets, you guys think Gregg Zaun will regress a bit but still remain a quality player, Dan Uggla will bounce back with a better season than last year, and that Rich Harden will stay relatively healthy and pitch quite well. If the consensus is correct on those three, then the acquiring teams should be quite satisfied with the results they get in 2010.





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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pm
14 years ago

I think John Lannan has a breakout year. He had one stretch where he had like 15-20 starts of under 3 ERA before a tumble in August most likely due to fatigue. After that, he finished the season strong. The Nationals are going to have a lot defense so that will improve his numbers. I think he finishes with a solid 3.50 ERA. One thing not talked about him is that in Mid-Season, he basically abandoned trying to strike out guys and tried to get guys to hit in play and let the defense do its job. That helped him a lot. He does a good job of controlling the ball to make it go his outstanding 3B.

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Brad Johnsonmember
14 years ago
Reply to  pm

it would seem the fans are significantly more bullish on Lannan and agree with your assessment more than mine (which had him only throwing in the 100 IP range of replacement level innings). I don’t trust his smoke and mirrors routine to have the polish to hold up at his young age.

I will say, I am trying very hard to make my projections independent of numbers. If we all use some variation of 5/4/3 weighting then we’re not using wisdom of the crowds at all, just a back of the envelope calculation averaged over 200 people.

It doesn’t seem to me that the fans are properly assessing injury/collapse risk.

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Brad Johnsonmember
14 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

And to clarify, I used “smoke and mirrors” to replace 5 paragraphs of personal analysis. If you want to have that discussion, we can.

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