FanGraphs 2015 Staff Predictions

Before the season’s soft opening on Sunday night and grand opening on Monday, we are compelled to to offer you our staff predictions. We attempted to pull in as many of our authors as possible from across our family of blogs, because the only thing better than predictions is predictions by a ton of people!

We’re usually not so good at this sort of thing. Or, more to the point, we’re not any better at it than anyone else. But we enjoy doing it, because it marks the start of a new season. Last season was no different. Boston and Oakland were pegged as division winners, and Tampa Bay was pegged as a Wild Card. Prince Fielder and Jason Kipnis got MVP nods, and Xander Bogaerts got plenty of Rookie of the Year love. Only Boston as a division winner really sticks out as hilarious, but all of these missed the mark by a great deal. Nevertheless, we press on! We also conducted a more in-depth staff survey, and we’ll dig into that on Monday morning.

American League Postseason Teams
East: Boston (20), Baltimore (7), Toronto (7), New York (2), Tampa Bay (2)
Central: Cleveland (24), Detroit (14), Chicago (0), Kansas City (0), Minnesota (0)
West: Los Angeles (22), Seattle (14), Oakland (2), Houston (0), Texas (0)
Wild Card: Seattle (12), Toronto (10), Detroit (9), Chicago (6), Oakland (4), New York (1), Tampa Bay (1), Boston (14), Cleveland (11), Los Angeles (7)

The AL East is wide open enough that every team got a vote, something that didn’t happen in either the 2013 or 2014 editions of our staff predictions, in any division. Outside of that, the divisions are fairly unininteresting aside from the two votes for Oakland. Note that the three consensus division winners are listed at the end of the Wild Card votes, since it would be confusing if they won multiple things.

Even though you’re good enough at math to add up totals from division and wild card winners, let’s total up and check out who the overall postseason favorites are.

Total AL Predicted Playoff Appearances
Cleveland: 35
Boston: 34
Los Angeles: 29
Seattle: 26
Detroit: 23
Toronto: 17
Baltimore: 7
Chicago: 6
Oakland: 6
New York: 3
Tampa Bay: 3
Houston: 0
Kansas City: 0
Minnesota: 0
Texas: 0

Is Cleveland the best team in the American League? Our staff thinks so, just barely. Just like last season, 11 of the 15 teams got at least one postseason nod. The teams are a bit different though. Last season, Chicago, Houston, Minnesota and Toronto got goose eggs. This year, Kansas City and Texas swap in for Chicago and Toronto. No one has any faith in Houston or Minnesota, which isn’t really a surprise. What is a bit of a surprise is that no one has any faith in the defending AL champion Royals, who aren’t that far behind Cleveland and Detroit in our projected standings, and they have the exact same projected record as sleeper pick White Sox. Nevertheless, they got shut out.

National League Postseason Teams
East: Washington (38), Atlanta (0), Miami (0), New York (0), Philadelphia (0)
Central: St. Louis (25), Pittsburgh (10), Chicago (3), Cincinnati (0), Milwaukee (0)
West: Los Angeles (37), San Diego (1), Arizona (0), Colorado (0), San Francisco (0)
Wild Card: Pittsburgh (24), Chicago (11), Miami (10), San Diego (7), New York (5), San Francisco (4), Cincinnati (1), Milwaukee (1), St. Louis (10), Los Angeles (1)

The NL Central remains the most interesting division, unless your curiosity leans more toward the morbid, and then you may be fascinated with the spectacle that is the bottom of the NL East. The division winners are hardly surprising, though Dave made the case this week for a Cardinals collapse. Again, note that consensus division winners are at the end of the wild card voting since they can’t win two things.

Total Predicted Playoff Appearances
Washington: 38
Los Angeles: 38
St. Louis: 35
Pittsburgh: 34
Chicago: 14
Miami: 10
San Diego: 8
New York: 5
San Francisco: 4
Cincinnati: 1
Milwaukee: 1
Arizona: 0
Atlanta: 0
Colorado: 0
Philadelphia: 0

Just as in the AL, the staff is less than optimistic about defending pennant (and World Series) winner San Francisco. Unlike the AL, there is a much wider gap between the top dogs and the rest of the pack, as the staff thinks that Pittsburgh is pretty clearly one of the four playoff teams, with the rest of the pack fighting for the fifth and final spot.

Let’s go to the awards.
AL Awards
MVP: Mike Trout (31), Miguel Cabrera (2), Robinson Cano (2), Michael Brantley (1), Hanley Ramirez (1)
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (19), Chris Sale (8), David Price (4), Corey Kluber (3), Carlos Carrasco (1), Jeff Samardzija (1)
Rookie of the Year: Taijuan Walker (8), Carlos Rodon (8), Daniel Norris (6), Steven Souza (4), Dalton Pompey (3), Devon Travis (3), Rusney Castillo (2), Steven Wright (1)

The MVP and Cy Young Awards include all of the usual suspects, but unlike last year when only four players received votes here for Rookie of the Year, eight do this year, with five of them being pitchers. It’s a wide open field, but at least the extra names increase the chances of at least one of us being correct!

NL Awards
MVP: Andrew McCutchen (14), Giancarlo Stanton (9), Bryce Harper (5), Yasiel Puig (2), Ian Desmond (1), Paul Goldschmidt (1), Jason Heyward (1), Clayton Kershaw (1), Buster Posey (1), Troy Tulowitzki (1)
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (24), Max Scherzer (6), Johnny Cueto (3), Matt Harvey (2), Stephen Strasburg (1), Michael Wacha (1)
Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant (20), Joc Pederson (7), Jorge Soler (6), Jung-Ho Kang (1), Noah Syndergaard (1), Rasiel Iglesias (1)

The consensus that exists for the AL MVP does not exist in the NL. Three players get at least five votes here, as opposed to the AL, where only Trout receives more than two votes. Kershaw is close to a consensus at Cy Young, though the votes for others are a reminder that no pitcher is infallible. And while Kris Bryant won’t start the season in the majors, the staff isn’t letting that stop them from standing behind him.

And now, for your mocking pleasure, here are the voting grids.

2015 American League Staff Predictions

Author	East	Central	West	Wild Card	Wild Card	MVP	Cy	RoY
Alan Harrison	Toronto	Cleveland	Seattle	Boston	LA	Trout	Kluber	Walker
Alex Chamberlain	Toronto	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Boston	Trout	Hernandez	Rodon
August Fagerstrom	New York	Cleveland	LA	Boston	Chicago	Trout	Sale	Rodon
Brad Johnson	Baltimore	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Boston	Trout	Carrasco	Walker
Bradley Woodrum	Tampa Bay	Detroit	Oakland	Boston	LA	Trout	Kluber	Norris
Brett Talley	Boston	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Chicago	Trout	Hernandez	Rodon
Bryan Cole	Baltimore	Detroit	LA	Cleveland	Seattle	Trout	Hernandez	Pompey
Carson Cistulli	Toronto	Cleveland	Oakland	Boston	LA	Trout	Sale	Travis
Chad Young	Boston	Cleveland	Seattle	Toronto	Detroit	Trout	Hernandez	Walker
Chris Mitchell	Toronto	Cleveland	Seattle	New York	Boston	Trout	Sale	Norris
Colin Zarzycki	Boston	Detroit	Seattle	Toronto	Cleveland	Trout	Hernandez	Walker
Craig Edwards	Boston	Detroit	LA	Cleveland	Oakland	Trout	Price	Souza
Dan Farnsworth	Tampa Bay	Detroit	LA	Boston	Chicago	Cabrera	Hernandez	Rodon
Dave Cameron	Boston	Detroit	LA	Seattle	Cleveland	Trout	Hernandez	Castillo
David G Temple	Boston	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Chicago	Trout	Hernandez	Rodon
David Laurila	Baltimore	Cleveland	LA	Boston	Chicago	Cabrera	Price	Wright
David Wiers	Boston	Cleveland	LA	Toronto	Oakland	Trout	Hernandez	Souza
Dustin Nosler	Boston	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Oakland	Trout	Price	Walker
Eno Sarris	Boston	Detroit	Seattle	Cleveland	Toronto	Trout	Price	Pompey
Greg Simons	Baltimore	Detroit	LA	Cleveland	Boston	Brantley	Hernandez	Walker
Jason Linden	Baltimore	Detroit	LA	Boston	Oakland	Trout	Hernandez
Jeff Sullivan	Boston	Cleveland	Seattle	Toronto	LA	Trout	Hernandez	Norris
Jeff Zimmerman	Baltimore	Detroit	LA	Cleveland	Boston	Trout	Kluber	Souza
Joe Distelheim	Boston	Cleveland	Seattle	Detroit	Chicago
John Paschal	Toronto	Cleveland	Seattle	LA	Detroit	Cano	Hernandez	Walker
Jonah Pemstein	Boston	Detroit	LA	Seattle	Cleveland	Trout	Hernandez	Rodon
Mike Petriello	Boston	Cleveland	Seattle	Detroit	Baltimore	Trout	Sale	Norris
Miles Wray	Boston	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Tampa Bay	Trout	Sale	Souza
Nathaniel Grow	Boston	Detroit	Seattle	LA	Cleveland	Trout	Sale	Travis
Neil Weinberg	Boston	Cleveland	LA	Detroit	Toronto	Trout	Hernandez	Rodon
Owen Watson	Toronto	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Boston	Trout	Hernandez	Walker
Patrick Dubuque	Toronto	Cleveland	Seattle	Detroit	LA	Trout	Hernandez	Norris
Paul Sporer	New York	Cleveland	Seattle	Detroit	Boston	Trout	Samardzija	Castillo
Paul Swydan	Boston	Cleveland	LA	Seattle	Toronto	Ramirez	Sale	Travis
Sean Dolinar	Boston	Cleveland	Seattle	Toronto	Detroit	Trout	Sale
Seth Keichline	Baltimore	Detroit	LA	Boston	Toronto	Trout	Hernandez	Norris
Shane Tourtellotte	Boston	Detroit	LA	Seattle	Cleveland	Cano	Sale	Pompey
Zach Sanders	Boston	Cleveland	Seattle	Detroit	Toronto	Trout	Hernandez	Rodon

2015 National League Staff Predictions

Author	East	Central	West	Wild Card	Wild Card	MVP	Cy	RoY
Alan Harrison	Washington	St. Louis	SD	Pittsburgh	LA	Stanton	Scherzer	Pederson
Alex Chamberlain	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	San Diego	McCutchen	Harvey	Soler
August Fagerstrom	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Chicago	Miami	Harper	Strasburg	Bryant
Brad Johnson	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	St. Louis	Miami	Stanton	Kershaw	Bryant
Bradley Woodrum	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Chicago	Stanton	Kershaw	Bryant
Brett Talley	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	New York	McCutchen	Scherzer	Bryant
Bryan Cole	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	SF	Harper	Kershaw	Pederson
Carson Cistulli	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Chicago	Tulowitzki	Kershaw	Bryant
Chad Young	Washington	St. Louis	LA	SF	Pittsburgh	McCutchen	Scherzer	Bryant
Chris Mitchell	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Chicago	Posey	Kershaw	Pederson
Colin Zarzycki	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	San Diego		McCutchen	Kershaw	Pederson
Craig Edwards	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Miami	McCutchen	Kershaw	Bryant
Dan Farnsworth	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	St. Louis	Milwaukee	Goldschmidt	Cueto	Kang
Dave Cameron	Washington	Chicago	LA	Pittsburgh	St. Louis	Harper	Kershaw	Soler
David G Temple	Washington	St. Louis	LA	San Diego	Chicago	Yasiel Puig	Kershaw	Bryant
David Laurila	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	St. Louis	Miami	Stanton	Cueto	Pederson
David Wiers	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	St. Louis	Miami	McCutchen	Scherzer	Pederson
Dustin Nosler	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	St. Louis	Miami	Stanton	Kershaw	Soler
Eno Sarris	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	St. Louis	New York	Puig	Scherzer	Soler
Greg Simons	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	New York	Desmond	Kershaw	“Bryant
Jason Linden	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Chicago	Pittsburgh	McCutchen	Cueto	Bryant
Jeff Sullivan	Washington	Chicago	LA	St. Louis	Pittsburgh	McCutchen	Kershaw	Bryant
Jeff Zimmerman	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	Cincinnati	Miami		Kershaw	Iglesias
Joe Distelheim	Washington	Chicago	LA	St. Louis
John Paschal	Washington	St. Louis	LA	San Diego	Pittsburgh	McCutchen	Kershaw	Bryant
Jonah Pemstein	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Chicago	Stanton	Kershaw	Bryant
Mike Petriello	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	New York	Harper	Kershaw	Bryant
Miles Wray	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	San Diego	Stanton	Kershaw	Bryant
Nathaniel Grow	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Miami	Stanton	Kershaw	Pederson
Neil Weinberg	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Chicago	McCutchen	Harvey	Bryant
Owen Watson	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Chicago	McCutchen	Kershaw	Bryant
Patrick Dubuque	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	San Diego	Kershaw	Kershaw	Soler
Paul Sporer	Washington	St. Louis	LA	San Diego	New York	Harper	Wacha	Syndergaard
Paul Swydan	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	Chicago	SF	Heyward	Kershaw	Soler
Sean Dolinar	Washington	Pittsburgh	LA	Chicago	St. Louis	McCutchen	Kershaw
Seth Keichline	Washington	St. Louis	LA	SF	Pittsburgh	McCutchen	Kershaw	Bryant
Shane Tourtellotte	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Miami	McCutchen	Scherzer	Bryant
Zach Sanders	Washington	St. Louis	LA	Pittsburgh	Miami	Stanton	Kershaw	Bryant