FanGraphs 2015 Staff Predictions

Before the season’s soft opening on Sunday night and grand opening on Monday, we are compelled to to offer you our staff predictions. We attempted to pull in as many of our authors as possible from across our family of blogs, because the only thing better than predictions is predictions by a ton of people!

We’re usually not so good at this sort of thing. Or, more to the point, we’re not any better at it than anyone else. But we enjoy doing it, because it marks the start of a new season. Last season was no different. Boston and Oakland were pegged as division winners, and Tampa Bay was pegged as a Wild Card. Prince Fielder and Jason Kipnis got MVP nods, and Xander Bogaerts got plenty of Rookie of the Year love. Only Boston as a division winner really sticks out as hilarious, but all of these missed the mark by a great deal. Nevertheless, we press on! We also conducted a more in-depth staff survey, and we’ll dig into that on Monday morning.

American League Postseason Teams
East: Boston (20), Baltimore (7), Toronto (7), New York (2), Tampa Bay (2)
Central: Cleveland (24), Detroit (14), Chicago (0), Kansas City (0), Minnesota (0)
West: Los Angeles (22), Seattle (14), Oakland (2), Houston (0), Texas (0)
Wild Card: Seattle (12), Toronto (10), Detroit (9), Chicago (6), Oakland (4), New York (1), Tampa Bay (1), Boston (14), Cleveland (11), Los Angeles (7)

The AL East is wide open enough that every team got a vote, something that didn’t happen in either the 2013 or 2014 editions of our staff predictions, in any division. Outside of that, the divisions are fairly unininteresting aside from the two votes for Oakland. Note that the three consensus division winners are listed at the end of the Wild Card votes, since it would be confusing if they won multiple things.

Even though you’re good enough at math to add up totals from division and wild card winners, let’s total up and check out who the overall postseason favorites are.

Total AL Predicted Playoff Appearances
Cleveland: 35
Boston: 34
Los Angeles: 29
Seattle: 26
Detroit: 23
Toronto: 17
Baltimore: 7
Chicago: 6
Oakland: 6
New York: 3
Tampa Bay: 3
Houston: 0
Kansas City: 0
Minnesota: 0
Texas: 0

Is Cleveland the best team in the American League? Our staff thinks so, just barely. Just like last season, 11 of the 15 teams got at least one postseason nod. The teams are a bit different though. Last season, Chicago, Houston, Minnesota and Toronto got goose eggs. This year, Kansas City and Texas swap in for Chicago and Toronto. No one has any faith in Houston or Minnesota, which isn’t really a surprise. What is a bit of a surprise is that no one has any faith in the defending AL champion Royals, who aren’t that far behind Cleveland and Detroit in our projected standings, and they have the exact same projected record as sleeper pick White Sox. Nevertheless, they got shut out.

National League Postseason Teams
East: Washington (38), Atlanta (0), Miami (0), New York (0), Philadelphia (0)
Central: St. Louis (25), Pittsburgh (10), Chicago (3), Cincinnati (0), Milwaukee (0)
West: Los Angeles (37), San Diego (1), Arizona (0), Colorado (0), San Francisco (0)
Wild Card: Pittsburgh (24), Chicago (11), Miami (10), San Diego (7), New York (5), San Francisco (4), Cincinnati (1), Milwaukee (1), St. Louis (10), Los Angeles (1)

The NL Central remains the most interesting division, unless your curiosity leans more toward the morbid, and then you may be fascinated with the spectacle that is the bottom of the NL East. The division winners are hardly surprising, though Dave made the case this week for a Cardinals collapse. Again, note that consensus division winners are at the end of the wild card voting since they can’t win two things.

Total Predicted Playoff Appearances
Washington: 38
Los Angeles: 38
St. Louis: 35
Pittsburgh: 34
Chicago: 14
Miami: 10
San Diego: 8
New York: 5
San Francisco: 4
Cincinnati: 1
Milwaukee: 1
Arizona: 0
Atlanta: 0
Colorado: 0
Philadelphia: 0

Just as in the AL, the staff is less than optimistic about defending pennant (and World Series) winner San Francisco. Unlike the AL, there is a much wider gap between the top dogs and the rest of the pack, as the staff thinks that Pittsburgh is pretty clearly one of the four playoff teams, with the rest of the pack fighting for the fifth and final spot.

Let’s go to the awards.
AL Awards
MVP: Mike Trout (31), Miguel Cabrera (2), Robinson Cano (2), Michael Brantley (1), Hanley Ramirez (1)
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (19), Chris Sale (8), David Price (4), Corey Kluber (3), Carlos Carrasco (1), Jeff Samardzija (1)
Rookie of the Year: Taijuan Walker (8), Carlos Rodon (8), Daniel Norris (6), Steven Souza (4), Dalton Pompey (3), Devon Travis (3), Rusney Castillo (2), Steven Wright (1)

The MVP and Cy Young Awards include all of the usual suspects, but unlike last year when only four players received votes here for Rookie of the Year, eight do this year, with five of them being pitchers. It’s a wide open field, but at least the extra names increase the chances of at least one of us being correct!

NL Awards
MVP: Andrew McCutchen (14), Giancarlo Stanton (9), Bryce Harper (5), Yasiel Puig (2), Ian Desmond (1), Paul Goldschmidt (1), Jason Heyward (1), Clayton Kershaw (1), Buster Posey (1), Troy Tulowitzki (1)
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (24), Max Scherzer (6), Johnny Cueto (3), Matt Harvey (2), Stephen Strasburg (1), Michael Wacha (1)
Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant (20), Joc Pederson (7), Jorge Soler (6), Jung-Ho Kang (1), Noah Syndergaard (1), Rasiel Iglesias (1)

The consensus that exists for the AL MVP does not exist in the NL. Three players get at least five votes here, as opposed to the AL, where only Trout receives more than two votes. Kershaw is close to a consensus at Cy Young, though the votes for others are a reminder that no pitcher is infallible. And while Kris Bryant won’t start the season in the majors, the staff isn’t letting that stop them from standing behind him.

And now, for your mocking pleasure, here are the voting grids.