FanGraphs 2016 Staff Predictions

Oh my, it’s prediction time. Can you feel it? Another season is upon us. Another chance for us to look like huge idiots. Like last season, when none of us pegged Kansas City to make the playoffs, and just five of us pegged the Mets as a playoff team. Being wrong on the internet can be an annual thing, but rarely do we crystallize just how wrong we are in one single location. Yes, it’s good to be back.

This year, there are a couple of no-doubt teams, according to everyone who voted. Chicago and Houston enter the season as our two locks to make the postseason. Considering that, as recently as 2013, these teams won 66 and 51 games, respectively, this seems pretty remarkable. We can save the tanking discussion for another day, but no matter your name for it, these franchises have really built themselves up into something. Houston has had an especially sharp transformation. Last season, they got zero votes for the postseason, and this year they got every single vote.

The Astros and Cubs aren’t the only teams in which we’re big believers, of course, but let’s get right to looking at the actual predictions.

American League Postseason Teams

Looking at the divisions themselves, the AL East and Central are pretty divisive. Nine of the 10 teams get at least one division-winning vote, which probably means you should head to Vegas tonight and bet on the Orioles. Speaking of disrespect, the projections may still not be respecting the Royals, but the staff isn’t taking them lightly this year. In general, the staff feels the AL Central is far more wide open than last year, when only two teams go votes. In the West, the thing that stands out to me is that no team voted for Los Angeles, a year after we had them pegged as the consensus choice for the AL West crown. Poor Mike Trout.

This tally isn’t going to do anything to allay the concerns of our Red Sox bias.

National League Postseason Teams

Here, you can probably see that the Wild Card spots aren’t as clear cut as they were in the AL. Pittsburgh is clearly the favorite among the Wild Card teams, but Washington, St. Louis and San Francisco are all bunched together. The top of the NL should be fun to watch this season.

Also, if teams could be post-hype sleepers, the Nationals might be the post-hype sleeper team.

One surprise here has to be how many people have Los Angeles playing golf in October. Prescient forecasting or overreaction to the team’s rash of March injuries? Only time will tell. Still, they’re in the group of four right at the top of the list, so it could be worse. Speaking of worse, perennial contender St. Louis sort of finds itself in no man’s land. Does their five-year run of postseason appearances end this season? Finally, a full six teams get no postseason votes, and Milwaukee gets only one.

AL Awards

We might not be showing the Twins a whole lot of love in terms of postseason appearances, but if this Rookie of the Year tally is any indication, that may change next season. Park, Buxton and Berrios are the only clear picks here, with everyone else more or less shots in the dark in what is a muddied field. There is no such indecision about the MVP and Cy Young races.

NL Awards

The MVP and Cy Young frontrunning numbers are essentially reversed here. Trout and Kershaw: can’t go wrong with them. Elsewhere, the Goldschmidt support is interesting in that there isn’t much overlap between the Goldschmidt voters and the people who peg Arizona for a playoff berth, suggesting that some think Goldschmidt is in line for a season monstrous enough that he will get voted MVP without a playoff berth.

Unlike the AL Rookie of the Year tally, the consensus in the NL is clear. What’s also clear is that it’s going to be a great season. Enjoy the individual ballots below to reference for your mocking pleasure.

Happy baseball!