FanGraphs 2016 Staff Predictions

by
April 1, 2016

Oh my, it’s prediction time. Can you feel it? Another season is upon us. Another chance for us to look like huge idiots. Like last season, when none of us pegged Kansas City to make the playoffs, and just five of us pegged the Mets as a playoff team. Being wrong on the internet can be an annual thing, but rarely do we crystallize just how wrong we are in one single location. Yes, it’s good to be back.

This year, there are a couple of no-doubt teams, according to everyone who voted. Chicago and Houston enter the season as our two locks to make the postseason. Considering that, as recently as 2013, these teams won 66 and 51 games, respectively, this seems pretty remarkable. We can save the tanking discussion for another day, but no matter your name for it, these franchises have really built themselves up into something. Houston has had an especially sharp transformation. Last season, they got zero votes for the postseason, and this year they got every single vote.

The Astros and Cubs aren’t the only teams in which we’re big believers, of course, but let’s get right to looking at the actual predictions.

American League Postseason Teams

Staff Predictions: AL East
Team Division Wild Card Postseason
Toronto 28 19 47
Boston 17 27 44
New York 8 9 17
Tampa Bay 2 5 7
Baltimore 0 0 0

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Staff Predictions: AL Central
Team Division Wild Card Postseason
Cleveland 22 12 34
Kansas City 15 15 30
Detroit 12 3 15
Chicago 5 1 6
Minnesota 1 0 1

Staff Predictions: AL West
Team Division Wild Card Postseason
Houston 46 9 55
Texas 9 8 17
Seattle 0 2 2
Los Angeles 0 0 0
Oakland 0 0 0

Looking at the divisions themselves, the AL East and Central are pretty divisive. Nine of the 10 teams get at least one division-winning vote, which probably means you should head to Vegas tonight and bet on the Orioles. Speaking of disrespect, the projections may still not be respecting the Royals, but the staff isn’t taking them lightly this year. In general, the staff feels the AL Central is far more wide open than last year, when only two teams go votes. In the West, the thing that stands out to me is that no team voted for Los Angeles, a year after we had them pegged as the consensus choice for the AL West crown. Poor Mike Trout.

This tally isn’t going to do anything to allay the concerns of our Red Sox bias.

National League Postseason Teams

Staff Predictions: NL East
Team Division Wild Card Postseason
New York 30 17 47
Washington 25 17 42
Atlanta 0 0 0
Miami 0 0 0
Philadelphia 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: NL Central
Team Division Wild Card Postseason
Chicago 50 4 54
Pittsburgh 3 25 28
St. Louis 2 16 18
Milwaukee 0 1 1
Cincinnati 0 0 0

Staff Predictions: NL West
Team Division Wild Card Postseason
Los Angeles 36 8 44
San Francisco 17 13 30
Arizona 2 9 11
Colorado 0 0 0
San Diego 0 0 0

Here, you can probably see that the Wild Card spots aren’t as clear cut as they were in the AL. Pittsburgh is clearly the favorite among the Wild Card teams, but Washington, St. Louis and San Francisco are all bunched together. The top of the NL should be fun to watch this season.

Also, if teams could be post-hype sleepers, the Nationals might be the post-hype sleeper team.

One surprise here has to be how many people have Los Angeles playing golf in October. Prescient forecasting or overreaction to the team’s rash of March injuries? Only time will tell. Still, they’re in the group of four right at the top of the list, so it could be worse. Speaking of worse, perennial contender St. Louis sort of finds itself in no man’s land. Does their five-year run of postseason appearances end this season? Finally, a full six teams get no postseason votes, and Milwaukee gets only one.

AL Awards

Staff Predictions: AL MVP
Player Votes
Mike Trout 35
Carlos Correa 11
Manny Machado 4
Mookie Betts 2
Jose Abreu 1
Jose Bautista 1
Josh Donaldson 1

Staff Predictions: AL Cy Young
Player Votes
Chris Sale 24
Carlos Carrasco 10
David Price 7
Chris Archer 6
Felix Hernandez 3
Dallas Keuchel 2
Corey Kluber 1
Garrett Richards 1
Marcus Stroman 1

Staff Predictions: AL ROY
Player Votes
Byung-ho Park 18
Byron Buxton 17
Jose Berrios 7
Blake Snell 3
Joey Gallo 2
Sean Manaea 2
A.J. Reed 2
Aaron Judge 1
Nomar Mazara 1
Tyler Naquin 1
Tyler White 1

We might not be showing the Twins a whole lot of love in terms of postseason appearances, but if this Rookie of the Year tally is any indication, that may change next season. Park, Buxton and Berrios are the only clear picks here, with everyone else more or less shots in the dark in what is a muddied field. There is no such indecision about the MVP and Cy Young races.

NL Awards

Staff Predictions: NL MVP
Player Votes
Bryce Harper 24
Paul Goldschmidt 14
Kris Bryant 5
Anthony Rizzo 4
Nolan Arenado 3
Andrew McCutchen 2
Jason Heyward 1
Clayton Kershaw 1
Yasiel Puig 1

Staff Predictions: NL Cy Young
Player Votes
Clayton Kershaw 37
Max Scherzer 7
Madison Bumgarner 3
Gerrit Cole 2
Jose Fernandez 2
Matt Harvey 2
Jake Arrieta 1
Stephen Strasburg 1

Staff Predictions: NL ROY
Player Votes
Corey Seager 35
Steven Matz 6
Kenta Maeda 4
Trevor Story 3
Tyler Glasnow 2
Trea Turner 2
Socrates Brito 1
Lucas Giolito 1
Jose Peraza 1

The MVP and Cy Young frontrunning numbers are essentially reversed here. Trout and Kershaw: can’t go wrong with them. Elsewhere, the Goldschmidt support is interesting in that there isn’t much overlap between the Goldschmidt voters and the people who peg Arizona for a playoff berth, suggesting that some think Goldschmidt is in line for a season monstrous enough that he will get voted MVP without a playoff berth.

Unlike the AL Rookie of the Year tally, the consensus in the NL is clear. What’s also clear is that it’s going to be a great season. Enjoy the individual ballots below to reference for your mocking pleasure.

Happy baseball!

2016 American League FanGraphs Staff Predictions
Author East Central West Wild Card Wild Card MVP Cy RoY
Alec Denton Boston Detroit Houston Toronto Texas Trout Sale Reed
Alex Chamberlain Toronto Cleveland Houston New York Kansas City Betts Carrasco Berrios
Alex Remington Boston Cleveland Houston Texas Kansas City Trout Sale Buxton
August Fagerstrom Toronto Chicago Houston Cleveland Boston Trout Carrasco Park
Benjamin Pasinkoff Toronto Cleveland Houston New York Tampa Bay Trout Sale Park
Bill Petti Toronto Kansas City Texas Houston New York Trout Carrasco Buxton
Birchwood Bros. Toronto Minnesota Houston Seattle Boston Trout Stroman Naquin
Blake Murphy Toronto Cleveland Houston Boston New York Trout Carrasco Snell
Brad Johnson Toronto Cleveland Texas Houston Boston Donaldson Keuchel Park
Brandon Warne Boston Kansas City Houston Cleveland Texas Trout Sale Buxton
Brett Talley Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto Seattle Trout Sale Park
Brice Russ Toronto Detroit Houston Boston Kansas City Machado Sale Park
Bruce Markusen New York Kansas City Houston Boston Texas Correa Archer Park
Carson Cistulli Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto Kansas City Trout Archer Buxton
Chad Young Boston Kansas City Houston Toronto Cleveland Bautista Price Park
Chris Mitchell New York Cleveland Houston Tampa Bay Toronto Trout Price Berrios
Corinne Landrey Toronto Cleveland Texas Chicago Houston Machado Sale Gallo
Craig Edwards New York Detroit Houston Boston Cleveland Trout Price Snell
Dan Farnsworth Toronto Detroit Houston Boston Kansas City Trout Hernandez Berrios
Dave Cameron Boston Detroit Houston Toronto Cleveland Correa Sale Park
David Laurila Toronto Detroit Texas Kansas City Houston Machado Archer Park
David Temple New York Chicago Houston Kansas City Boston Machado Sale Park
David Wiers Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto Kansas City Trout Sale Manaea
Dustin Nosler Toronto Kansas City Texas Boston Houston Correa Sale Buxton
Dylan Higgins Boston Chicago Houston Toronto Cleveland Trout Archer Buxton
Eno Sarris Boston Chicago Houston Toronto Cleveland Correa Sale White
Jack Moore Toronto Kansas City Texas New York Boston Trout Price Buxton
Jeff Sullivan Toronto Cleveland Houston Boston Tampa Bay Correa Sale Park
Jeff Zimmerman Toronto Detroit Texas Houston Boston Trout Kluber Berrios
Joe Douglas Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto Detroit Correa Carrasco Park
John LaRue New York Cleveland Houston Texas Tampa Bay Correa Sale Berrios
John Paschal Toronto Kansas City Texas Houston Cleveland Correa Archer Buxton
Jon Roegele Toronto Kansas City Houston New York Boston Correa Sale Buxton
Jonah Pemstein Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto Kansas City Trout Sale Buxton
Justin Mason Toronto Detroit Houston Kansas City Cleveland Trout Richards Berrios
Marc Hulet New York Kansas City Houston Toronto Boston Trout Keuchel Judge
Mike Podhorzer Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto New York Trout Sale Park
Nathaniel Grow Toronto Kansas City Houston Boston Detroit Trout Sale Gallo
Neil Weinberg Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto Detroit Trout Sale Reed
Owen Watson Toronto Cleveland Houston Boston Kansas City Trout Carrasco Buxton
Patrick Dubuque Tampa Bay Cleveland Houston Toronto Boston Correa Hernandez Park
Paul Kastava Boston Detroit Houston Kansas City Tampa Bay Trout Sale Park
Paul Sporer Tampa Bay Detroit Houston Cleveland Boston Betts Carrasco Berrios
Paul Swydan Boston Kansas City Texas Houston Toronto Trout Price Mazara
Robert Sanchez Toronto Kansas City Houston Boston Cleveland Trout Archer Buxton
Roger Cheng New York Kansas City Houston Toronto Boston Trout Price Buxton
Rylan Edwards Toronto Cleveland Houston Kansas City Boston Trout Hernandez Park
Scott Spratt Toronto Cleveland Houston Kansas City Tampa Bay Trout Carrasco Snell
Sean Dolinar New York Cleveland Houston Toronto Boston Trout Sale Park
Shane Tourtellotte Boston Cleveland Houston Toronto Texas Trout Sale Buxton
Stacey Gotsulias Toronto Kansas City Houston New York Cleveland Trout Sale Buxton
Tanner Bell Toronto Detroit Houston Texas Boston Correa Sale Park
Tim Healey Toronto Chicago Houston Boston Kansas City Trout Price Buxton
Trey Baughn Toronto Kansas City Houston Boston Texas Abreu Carrasco Manaea
Zach Sanders Toronto Detroit Houston Boston New York Trout Carrasco Buxton

2016 National League FanGraphs Staff Predictions
Author East Central West Wild Card Wild Card MVP Cy RoY
Alec Denton Washington Chicago SF Pittsburgh New York Goldschmidt Scherzer Seager
Alex Chamberlain New York Chicago LA St. Louis SF Rizzo Kershaw Maeda
Alex Remington New York Chicago LA Pittsburgh Washington Bryant Kershaw Seager
August Fagerstrom New York Chicago LA Washington Arizona Harper Kershaw Seager
Benjamin Pasinkoff New York Chicago LA Washington SF Rizzo Kershaw Seager
Bill Petti New York Chicago SF LA St. Louis Harper Scherzer Seager
Birchwood Bros. Washington Chicago LA New York St. Louis Arenado Scherzer Turner
Blake Murphy Washington Chicago LA New York St. Louis Harper Kershaw Seager
Brad Johnson New York Chicago LA Washington Arizona Goldschmidt Kershaw Brito
Brandon Warne New York Chicago Arizona St. Louis SF Harper Kershaw Seager
Brett Talley New York Chicago LA Washington SF Harper Kershaw Story
Brice Russ New York Chicago LA Washington St. Louis Bryant Kershaw Seager
Bruce Markusen New York Chicago SF Arizona Pittsburgh Goldschmidt Kershaw Seager
Carson Cistulli Washington Chicago LA New York Milwaukee Heyward Fernandez Seager
Chad Young Washington Chicago LA Pittsburgh New York Rizzo Kershaw Glasnow
Chris Mitchell New York Chicago LA St. Louis Washington Harper Kershaw Peraza
Corinne Landrey New York Chicago LA Pittsburgh Arizona Harper Kershaw Matz
Craig Edwards Washington Chicago LA St. Louis Pittsburgh Harper Kershaw Seager
Dan Farnsworth Washington St. Louis LA Pittsburgh SF Goldschmidt Bumgarner Seager
Dave Cameron Washington Chicago LA New York Pittsburgh Harper Fernandez Maeda
David Laurila Washington St. Louis Arizona Chicago LA Goldschmidt Scherzer Seager
David Temple Washington Chicago LA New York Pittsburgh Goldschmidt Strasburg Maeda
David Wiers Washington Pittsburgh LA Chicago SF Goldschmidt Scherzer Matz
Dustin Nosler Washington Chicago LA Pittsburgh SF Goldschmidt Kershaw Seager
Dylan Higgins Washington Chicago SF LA New York Harper Kershaw Seager
Eno Sarris Washington Chicago SF Pittsburgh New York Harper Cole Story
Jack Moore New York Chicago SF St. Louis LA Harper Kershaw Seager
Jeff Sullivan Washington Chicago LA Pittsburgh SF Harper Kershaw Seager
Jeff Zimmerman Washington Chicago LA St. Louis New York Bryant Kershaw Glasnow
Joe Douglas Washington Chicago LA Pittsburgh New York Harper Kershaw Seager
John LaRue New York Chicago LA Pittsburgh SF Harper Kershaw Seager
John Paschal New York Chicago LA Washington Arizona Goldschmidt Kershaw Seager
Jon Roegele New York Chicago SF Washington LA Harper Kershaw Matz
Jonah Pemstein New York Chicago LA Washington Pittsburgh Harper Kershaw Seager
Justin Mason New York Chicago SF Washington Arizona Goldschmidt Cole Seager
Marc Hulet New York Pittsburgh SF LA Chicago Arenado Bumgarner Seager
Mike Podhorzer New York Chicago SF Washington St. Louis Goldschmidt Kershaw Seager
Nathaniel Grow Washington Chicago SF LA New York Harper Scherzer Seager
Neil Weinberg New York Chicago LA SF Pittsburgh Bryant Kershaw Matz
Owen Watson New York Chicago LA Pittsburgh Arizona Goldschmidt Kershaw Seager
Patrick Dubuque New York Chicago LA Washington Pittsburgh Kershaw Kershaw Seager
Paul Kastava Washington Chicago LA New York Pittsburgh Goldschmidt Harvey Seager
Paul Sporer Washington Chicago SF LA New York Harper Harvey Story
Paul Swydan Washington Pittsburgh SF Chicago New York McCutchen Kershaw Matz
Robert Sanchez Washington Chicago SF Pittsburgh St. Louis Bryant Bumgarner Seager
Roger Cheng New York Chicago LA St. Louis Washington Harper Kershaw Seager
Rylan Edwards New York Chicago LA Pittsburgh SF Harper Kershaw Seager
Scott Spratt New York Chicago LA Pittsburgh St. Louis Puig Kershaw Seager
Sean Dolinar Washington Chicago LA Pittsburgh St. Louis McCutchen Kershaw Seager
Shane Tourtellotte Washington Chicago LA New York St. Louis Rizzo Scherzer Seager
Stacey Gotsulias Washington Chicago SF New York Arizona Goldschmidt Kershaw Turner
Tanner Bell New York Chicago SF Pittsburgh Washington Harper Kershaw Maeda
Tim Healey New York Chicago LA SF Pittsburgh Harper Kershaw Matz
Trey Baughn New York Chicago SF Washington Arizona Arenado Arrieta Giolito
Zach Sanders New York Chicago LA SF Washington Harper Kershaw Seager





 

Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.

71 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Dick Monfort
10 years ago

I guess Fangraphs staff doesn’t believe their own projections that the Red Sox are the best team in baseball.

14
OddBall Herrera
10 years ago
Reply to  Dick Monfort

Because this would’ve been a really useful exercise if the entire staff just listed teams in their projected order…

44
Damaso
10 years ago
Reply to  Dick Monfort

Looks like it, Shirtless!

-4
Lanidrac
10 years ago
Reply to  Dick Monfort

I still don’t get why everyone likes them so much when they still have a mediocre rotation after Price and still need to see if they can get much use out of Sandoval and Ramirez. I definitely see the Blue Jays repeating as division champs of the AL East.

-2
O'KieboomerMember since 2021
10 years ago

I thought the Royals are a last place team and one of the worst teams in the AL?

-26
CM52
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

Go cry into your pillow, bitch

-33
O'KieboomerMember since 2021
10 years ago
Reply to  CM52

You don’t know how true this is.

1
stockhfcrx
10 years ago
Reply to  CM52

Don’t sign your posts

7
TJMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

Projections are different than predictions.

32
O'KieboomerMember since 2021
10 years ago
Reply to  TJ

Weird that a website of ostensibly stat-oriented authors don’t put as much stock in their projection system as they tell other people they should…

-2
TJMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

Ah, I think this is where the disconnect is. The authors are putting just the right amount of stock in their projections. They understand the uncertainty on top of the mean values projected. All of these predictions reflect the range of outcomes that are perfectly reasonable from the projections.

27
O'KieboomerMember since 2021
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

I don’t think predicting a bottom-dwelling projection team as one of the two best non-division winning records in the AL is a straightforward line of thought, and it would have been nice to have some discussion on this dissonance.

I got downvoted like hell but that’s par for the course here at fangraphs. Disagree with the groupthink or point out an inconsistency and the rabble express their displeasure.

-9
TJMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

This is probably the best article where they discuss the range of outcomes resulting from their projections:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-are-the-chances-the-phillies-outplay-the-cubs/

And, hey, you got fewer downvotes than the nonsensical, potty-mouthed retort! The rabble here is better than most of the internet’s rabble.

2
The Ghost of Dayn Perry
10 years ago

Cue all the fanboys claiming that this post is an April Fool’s joke because someone didn’t pick their favorite team

-1
FrancoLuvHateMets
10 years ago

Carson thinks the Brewers have a shot? What am I missing? I didn’t think they had a bunch of almost ready top prospects like the Cubs and Astros did when they blindsided everyone last year.

9
The Dude of NY
10 years ago
Reply to  FrancoLuvHateMets

Carson is a troll both online and under a bridge.

27
ballskwokMember since 2018
10 years ago
Reply to  The Dude of NY

It’s hard to believe that there’s nobody out there.

3
RK
10 years ago
Reply to  FrancoLuvHateMets

He also thinks Jason Heyward will be NL MVP when it’s unlikely that he’ll be even his team’s MVP, so I’m not quite sure how seriously he took this exercise.

0
Dooduh
10 years ago

At least the Orioles hatred is no fleeting fad.

-9
Owen PoindexterMember since 2016
10 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

A fiery hatred it is! 54 dark souls conspire in their caves to mock Manny Machado’s men with their portentious posts! Waste not upon my ears and eyes your tales of shoddy starting pitching and a volatile lineup! Ignore the extremely talented division in which they compete! Tis hatred that drives these predictions! Hatred for these peculiar orange birds and the fair city of Baltimore!

29
The Dude of NY
10 years ago
Reply to  Owen Poindexter

Eye of Schoop and toe of Flaherty
Feathers from Orioles, tongue of Manny
Bundy doesn’t work, bad-signed Kim
Trumbo’s bad legs, Jones is grim
For a baseball prediction of powerful trouble
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble

-Shakespeare (adapted)

26
Krisco
10 years ago

Some bold work from Carson there. Laugh now—but he’s going to look like a freakin’ genius when The Crew wins 100. Ha!

Let the games begin!

1
JimMember since 2016
10 years ago
Reply to  Krisco

Cistulli? Figures.

0
Manute Bol sings better than this
10 years ago
Reply to  Krisco

I’d bet my shirt on the Brewers going all the way.

18
JJWattsArmBrace
10 years ago

Are there going to be any world series predictions or just playoff predictions?

0
Paul SwydanMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  JJWattsArmBrace

We do badly enough at just picking the playoff teams. No need to add insult to injury. 🙂

31
Dee P. Gordon
10 years ago
Reply to  Paul Swydan

Amen!

18
buckeyewalker
10 years ago

Man, Farnsworth is gonna look either really smart or too clever by half once October rolls around, with the cubs missing the playoffs entirely.

3
HarryLives
10 years ago

The Yankees/Rays divide is a bit of a head scratcher. Yanks are old. Rays are young. Rays have depth. Yanks don’t have depth. PECOTA likes the Rays a lot more than the Yanks. Fangraphs’ projections like them about the same. The only clear edge goes to the Yanks’ bullpen, but that’s a lot of separation based on the pen. If I were a betting man, I think I’d up my wager on the Rays.

1
vivalajeter
10 years ago
Reply to  HarryLives

If the teams are pretty equal, I’d wager on the team that’s more willing and able to help themselves at the deadline. If the Yankees are within striking distance, they can make a win-now move. I doubt the Rays would be willing to make such a move.

7
HarryLives
10 years ago
Reply to  vivalajeter

I can see the Rays making a smaller move to acquire a bullpen piece or two. When was the last time the Yanks pulled off a big deadline move? They’re clearly not the Yanks of old when it comes to making those sorts of moves. It’s really speculative to make picks based on presumed trade deadline additions, anyway.

2
Joey Butts
10 years ago
Reply to  HarryLives

Your assertion that the Yankees don’t have depth is too broad. They have plenty of depth, except for the starting rotation. The real difference between these teams, IMO, is the offense. Maybe the Rays can pitching-and-defense their way to a playoff spot, but it’s a bit of a long shot.

1
jpgMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  Joey Butts

Very true. I hate the Yankees but Hicks is an excellent fourth outfielder, Ackley is a solid super utility guy and they have good catcher depth behind McCann. Even in the rotation they have six guys for five spots. The Yankees problem isn’t depth it’s age and durability. While depth and durability go hand in hand, even the best depth gets exposed at a certain point.

2
JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  jpg

Is it really 6 guys for 5 spots though… Just because there was a competition if I about the quality. Predicting any of their starters to throw 200 innings would be nuts though. I feel like they should really be 7 or 8 deep for starters, 6 is sketchy let alone with cc as one of those.

0
HarryLives
10 years ago
Reply to  Joey Butts

The Rays offense will be better than you think this year. If the Rays and Yanks both played in the same park, I think the Rays would score as many runs as the Yankees. I may not have been giving the Yankees enough credit for depth on the position player side. I still think the Rays have more, though. The real difference between the two is the Yankees are old as @#$!, and the Rays are young.

0
burts_beadsMember since 2025
10 years ago

Surprised people seem to think there’s little chance of any regression/sophomore slump for Correa. He outperformed his minor league numbers by a fair amount in the bigs last year.

3
The Dude of NY
10 years ago
Reply to  burts_beads

He also played most of last year at the age of 20, when most top prospects are in A ball or AA.

0
JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  The Dude of NY

He hit at a 35 homer pace, would certainly expect some regression there. I think that’s more towards his prime year power numbers and he settles in at 20 for a few seasons first.

0
Lanidrac
10 years ago
Reply to  The Dude of NY

What does that have to do with avoiding a sophomore slump? If anything, I’d think his relative immaturity would make a sophomore slump more likely.

-1
kca741979
10 years ago

I’ve gotta hear Carson’s reasoning on Milwaukee being in the wildcard game. That’s a WILD prediction!

4
ShauncoreMember since 2019
10 years ago

Going to count this as a Twins article

33
JediHoyer
10 years ago

Losing respect for Farnsworth prospect predictions when he doesn’t even have the cubs making the playoffs.

-12
swingofthings
10 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

Those two things are totally unrelated. Besides, I think it’s clear that these predictions are all in good fun. The Cubs are statistically the safest bet to make the playoffs, and I’d bet Farnsworth knows that as well as anyone. But he wanted to go on a gut feeling or say something bold, most likely.

4
JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  swingofthings

I was saying that tongue in cheek. However predicting how someone will play in the majors and predicting how players will play are certainly related albeit different circumstances.

-1
jlukebeld
10 years ago

No Josh Donaldson love? Dude was an absolute beast last year. I’d be surprised if he isn’t top 3 again this year. Betts is great but not standout enough to get MVP votes.

0
ice_hawk10
10 years ago
Reply to  jlukebeld

yea that is weird, he strikes me as pretty obviously among the top 3 MVP candidates.

2
Damaso
10 years ago
Reply to  jlukebeld

yeah a bit strange. 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd in AL WAR the last 3yrs. 5th, 13th, and 4th in wRC+. 30yrs old. great and spectacular D. Hits 2nd in the best lineup in baseball.

If anyone can challenge Trout, he’s gotta be the best bet.

1
Mahoney
10 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

Machado. Second-best player in the AL right now.

But in a world where voters look at the standings for the MVP vote, Donaldson is a great bet. I’d put him ahead of Mookie for sure.

4
Damaso
10 years ago
Reply to  Mahoney

Macahado rules, true enough. But even then he’ll have trouble matching Donaldson’s raw numbers.

of course, if they put him at SS where he belongs, he might rival trout year in year out.

-1
Joey Butts
10 years ago
Reply to  jlukebeld

Really? That’s weird. I wouldn’t be surprised at all.

1
BipMember since 2016
10 years ago
Reply to  Joey Butts

Correct, I don’t know if there is any player who, if you told me he finished outside of the top 3 of any voting category, would cause me to feel surprise.

1
Daniel
10 years ago

Just remember folks, last year FanGraphs only had one AL postseason team correct.

0
O'KieboomerMember since 2021
10 years ago

Everyone slobbering over Mookie Betts should check the standing and see he was worth 0.69 less fWAR than underrated Kevin Kiermaier, who is not even a top 50 asset according to Dave.

-3
London Yank
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

I think they are both a bit overrated, but you really have to believe the defensive numbers to prefer Kiermaier over Betts.

1
O'KieboomerMember since 2021
10 years ago
Reply to  London Yank

Not just the numbers, use your eyes. I don’t think anyone who has watched Kiermaier play can say any of his defensive tools are a detriment (his routes have sometimes been criticized).

-1
Tom Dooley
10 years ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

Your eyes told you the precise number of runs he saved and it matched DRS & UZR?

That’s an impressive thing to lie about.

3
LevarkinMember since 2016
10 years ago

Petti/Warne/Markusen/Young/Nosler/Moore/Paschal/Roegele/Hulet/Grow/Swydan/Sanchez/Cheng/Gotsulias/Baughn

NBD, just making a little list of everyone who has excused themselves from the adults’ table, for posterity. May the emotions you’ve put in charge lead you to great joy.

-7
Brandon Warne
10 years ago
Reply to  Levarkin

Care to share why?

0
fjtorres
10 years ago

Interesting read on the tiggers: either everything clicks and they win the division or they go home.

This in the division where the most popular pick to win is projected to win only 84 games.

0
tomjefMember since 2014
10 years ago

Garrett Richards?

1
cwsoxfan
10 years ago

HOU is (+1600) to win it all and they have a pretty clear path to the WS. Gotta like them odds.

2
Today's Play
10 years ago
Reply to  cwsoxfan

Excellent point, though I’m wary of World Series futures due to the matchup to matchup nature of every level of the MLB playoffs. If nothing else, though, Houston could be great leverage at +1600 come playoff time. Also, I do love the Cleveland Indians over 85.5 wins.

1
JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  cwsoxfan

I actually prefer the rangers in that division.

0
Curacao LL
10 years ago

Can somebody please predict the resurrection of #notgraphs?

4
Noah BaronMember since 2016
10 years ago

I actually agree with the FanGraphs Division Picks this year!

Have to say, I’m glad you guys listened to some of my (and other people’s) critiques. I think your projections are a whole lot better than last year.

-4
Lanidrac
10 years ago

Okay, I understand how the Cubs are the heavy favorite in the NL Central, but why are so many of you picking Pittsburg over St. Louis? The Cardinals’ pitching is just as good as ever and even their offense will be improved if they have better health. Meanwhile, the Pirates have definitely taken a step backwards on paper having lost a significant amount of quality pitching to free agency or retirement with only mediocre replacements.

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The Dude of NY
10 years ago
Reply to  Lanidrac

As a Cubs fan, I consider the Pirates our biggest threat. The Cardinals roster just doesn’t seem to have as much upside. A lot of players who will be expected to be key contributors are on the wrong side of 30, so injury and a decline in performance should probably be expected. The Pirates will also get a big boost from Glasnow and Bell in midsummer.

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JediHoyer
10 years ago
Reply to  The Dude of NY

I doubt bell is a significant improvement over jaso, you have to really believe in niscasio and assume health from that whole outfield because there isn’t much depth.

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bluerum29
10 years ago

Nobody picks the Angels to make the playoffs and yet there is overwhelming support for Trout as MVP. This mentality needs to change.

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Brandon Warne
10 years ago
Reply to  bluerum29

Was last year really that long ago?

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francis_soyer
10 years ago

I’ll say that of the teams nobody predicted to make the playoffs, the Angels and the Marlins will.

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