FanGraphs 2017 Staff Predictions

Hello friends. With the countdown to the season tantalizingly close to zero, it’s time to tell you what we actually think is going to happen this season. We’re not always great at this, and I don’t think you’d want us to always be great at this, because frankly, that’d be terribly boring. But we do like to conduct the thought exercise of who is going to reach the postseason, because it’s good fun and also because it helps us frame our expectations for the season.

Last season, we were able to identify seven of the 10 playoff teams successfully, though not necessarily in their correct postseason positions. Will we do as well or better this season? Only time will tell. As is often the case, some teams got the overwhelming majority of the love, and some teams got coal in their baseball stocking.

Let’s get to it, shall we? We’ll start with the American League.

The division winners are pretty clear cut here, though it is interesting that all five AL East teams got at least one vote. That happened once last year, with the AL Central, and it happens again this year. Speaking of the AL Central, everyone is pretty sure that Cleveland is going to walk away with the crown. Things are the least clear cut in the West, which is the only division of the six where at least three teams garnered at least five votes. Things are similarly spread out in the Wild Card voting, as six teams got at least eight votes.

Overall, the big winner here — if you can even win a staff predictions poll — is Seattle. Last year they garnered just two postseason votes, this year it’s 28, for a 26-vote improvement (we had 55 voters last year, and 54 this year). Cleveland also gained 19 votes, though they were still a popular pick last season. The big loser, in terms of votes, is Kansas City, who drop from 30 to zero. Toronto also lost 14 votes. The real loser though is probably Oakland, as no one had enough hope or faith to grant them a single postseason vote either this year or last. I feel so badly about it, I won’t even make a joke.

Things are a bit more clear cut here, as all three division winners received at least 45 votes, as opposed to the AL, where only Cleveland did. Also, the second Wild Card team here — San Francisco — got 27 votes as opposed to just 19 for the second AL Wild Card team.

There wasn’t a tremendous winner in the NL — Colorado is the pick if you need one. After an 0-fer last year, the fighting Rockies garnered 12 votes this season, the highest positive difference in the league. Washington is +11, but they were still plenty popular last season. The big loser is Pittsburgh, who is down 19 votes from last season. And poor Cincinnati and San Diego, no votes either this year or last. Atlanta, Colorado, Miami and Philadelphia get off the schneide.

Baseball is so stacked with good, fun to watch young players, it’s really something. So what if Mike Trout doesn’t want to be LeBron James? Francisco Lindor could be, and there’s no shortage of charismatic players after him either.

This is one of two awards we voted on that didn’t have a clear consensus, and it’s not hard to see why. With the relief pitching renaissance happening in the game, it makes it harder for any one starting pitcher to stand out. There are a couple of unique choices here, and yes, there will be a Lance McCullers column coming soon.

It always feels a little weird to me when there is a consensus Rookie of the Year pick. Rookie play is generally so volatile that it seems odd to land on one player in particular, but in this case, it’s hard to argue. Benintendi came up last season, hit well, and wasn’t intimidated by the Green Monster or the postseason. The biggest knock on him seems to be that he might not hit as many homers as we’d like to see in a left fielder, and that’s a pretty thin criticism given how dramatically left field play has declined.

The lack of consensus here is also incredibly fun to me, especially since I could see all 10 of these guys having legit MVP cases. It’s going to be a good season.

It’s my personal opinion that Trout and Kershaw need to be the picks for their respective awards until they show some sort of meaningful decline, but obviously not everyone shares that opinion. But there is at least a consensus second-place pick in Syndergaard.

For the record, there was one Andrew Toles pick, but I asked that person to change it. There has been some debate as to Toles’ rookie eligibility, and while he may still retain it, Baseball-Reference says he doesn’t, so we’ll stick with that ruling for now.

So there you have it. Another year of predictions for you to mock. Here, I’ll even help you get started.

Happy baseball!