FanGraphs 2018 Staff Predictions

And just like that, the winter of our discontent is almost over. Tomorrow, all 30 teams celebrate Opening Day, and their fans with them. But before play begins, we at FanGraphs will observe our annual tradition of attempting to predict what will happen this year, before we commence our other annual tradition of getting some things wrong. Last year was a mixed bag. Astros? Nailed it. Cubs and Dodgers? Aren’t our moms proud! Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, Rookie of the Year winners? Can’t say we saw that coming.

We gathered predictions from writers across our family of blogs; what follows are the results.

The American League

The American League predictions are marked by their overwhelming sameness. Of the 40 ballots cast, a full 29 have the Astros, Indians, and Yankees sitting atop their divisions come the season’s end. Eight others feature the Astros and Indians but swap in the Red Sox for the Yankees. That isn’t so surprising: we currently project Houston to win 100 games, while New York, Cleveland, and Boston check in at 95, 94, and 93 wins, respectively.

And while the staff and the projections expect the first Wild Card spot to fall to either the Yankees or the Red Sox, there is a bit more wiggle room in the second Wild Card. The Angels receive more total Wild Card and playoff votes and take the prize here, but the Twins aren’t far behind. We might call it the Hey, They Still Have Mike Trout Effect if we enjoyed naming things.

One place the staff diverges sharply from projections? The Blue Jays. Much like our readers, we don’t think much of Toronto’s current 86-win projection, or the second Wild Card spot that goes with it.

And we don’t have much faith in the teams in the middle to surprise either. The Mariners and A’s are projected to win 80 games a piece this year, with the Rangers pegged at 79, and the Orioles and Rays each thought good for 78 wins. Those are all flawed squads — if they were less flawed they’d be expected to win more games! — but they managed just five total votes between them.

The National League

The National League vote leans similarly toward consensus. Indeed, 28 of the ballots cast have the Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals winning their divisions. The Nationals appear as a playoff team on every ballot, in one form or another. The Dodgers receive 39 playoff votes. We’re attributing Roger Cormier’s decision to purposely pick against favorites — and thus exclude LA entirely — to be the result of cultivated eccentricity or perhaps an extreme view of Justin Turner’s importance.

A bit more excitement comes in the Wild Cards. Last year’s Wild Card loser, the Colorado Rockies, is expected to miss the postseason entirely. The staff likes the Cardinals a lot and expects the Diamondbacks to return. And almost half the staff expects the Brewers to outperform their modest 79-win projection and make the playoffs, though opinions vary on exactly which spot they’ll occupy. They’re tied with the Diamondbacks in total playoff votes.

The Phillies aren’t expected to be a Wild Card team or challenge for the division, but the eight Wild Card votes they receive here represents a step up from the one (out of 55) they received last year. On the flip side, the staff is unmoved by the prospect of healthy pitching or Adrian Gonzalez, and gives the Mets just four playoff votes. They received 40 last year.

Individual Awards

Carlos Correa is very good, and Jose Altuve just won, and the reigning NL MVP is now lurking in the AL. But the thing about Mike Trout is that one injury-shortened season (in which he still managed a very nice 6.9 WAR) is not enough to dissuade people that he’s the best player in baseball.

Last year, Chris Sale narrowly edged out Corey Kluber in these predictions. Kluber won. This year, Chris Sale narrowly edges out Corey Kluber in these predictions. Will Kluber win again? We’ll find out!

We’re putting our faith in the idea that Shohei Ohtani’s rough spring doesn’t matter too much — which, for a guy who is adjusting to a new league and a new ball, seems like a good bet. Then again, last year, Andrew Benintendi was our overwhelming favorite. Isn’t it nice that we can still be surprised by things?

MVP isn’t as settled in the NL as we believe it to be in the AL, though the idea of a soon-to-hit-free-agency Bryce Harper proved alluring to many. Paul Goldschmidt always seems like he should do better in these sorts of things. The idea of Marlins fans having to watch Christian Yelich turn in an MVP performance the season immediately after Giancarlo Stanton did — while both of them wear other people’s laundry — feels deeply unkind.

I chose Max Scherzer because I know what it is like to have your whole day ruined by your back hurting just a little, and I mostly get to sit down. So Clayton Kershaw’s 2017 makes me nervous. The majority of my colleagues think Kershaw will make me look silly.

We like Ronald Acuña a lot, service time tomfoolery be damned. Really, damned. Damn it to hell.

So that’s it, that’s the whole season. We look forward to being proven right and wrong, and writing about how and why. We hope you’ll tag along for the ride. Happy baseball!