Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone! Thanks for coming. I’m here with the FanGraphs Midwest crew, as Jon Becker and I are in Illinois and Dan Szymborski is in Ohio, but we’re thrilled to join you for the drama that is taking place on the East Coast. We will talk about the game, answer your questions, and who knows what kind of tangents. First a foremost, we’re happy you’re here.
8:01
Dan Szymborski: G’evening!
8:01
Jon Becker: Hello everybody! Very happy to be here with my two colleagues and all of you lovely chatters for my first FanGraphs chat!
8:01
Dan Szymborski: Hopefully chatting with me won’t be too traumatic!
8:01
Kevin Goldstein: Everyone be nice to Jon.
8:02
Jimmie Foxxalorian: pins and needles all day in anticipation of this game! Sox will win, 5-4 in bottom of 9th. That is all.
8:02
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but what’s the over/under on time for a postseason Yankees/Red Sox game? 5:30?
8:02
Lennie: Am I the only one hoping that this game goes infinite innings so that no matter who wins, they both lose?
8:02
Kevin Goldstein: I would love the game to go 17 innings, because that would make for an amazing game, but I don’t hate either team.
8:03
Two Dads Playing Catch: Just how pissed do you think cora is at jd martinez for being a clumsy fool? I’d bet that it’s more than a little bit
8:03
Kevin Goldstein: He does it every game. He’s done it thousands of times. I know of a lot of other outfielders who do it EVERY TIME so nine times a night. It’s just a freakish thing. I don’t think Cora is mad.
8:04
Dan Szymborski: Better than Devin Williams injury!
8:04
Jon Becker: Already a banner year for strange postseason-affecting injuries, but hopefully they’re done with…
8:05
Dan Szymborski: Baseball players are superstitious. I’d be interested in seeing the percentage that believe in astrology compared to the general public.
8:05
Dan Szymborski: See: Turk Wendell
8:05
Teddy: Do you expect hitters from both teams to try and seek early fastballs to hit, as opposed to getting deeper into counts with Cole & Evaldi
8:05
Kevin Goldstein: I think you’ll see the Red Sox try to get into the pen, actually. I imagine they’ll do some early taking to see where Cole’s FB command is….
8:05
Joey Caltrain: It’s a shame that Dave Roberts isn’t part of this game.
8:06
Guest: If Aaron Judge is healthy next year, does he get the Springer contract? More? Less?
8:06
Kevin Goldstein: More. He’ll be two years younger at FA. HUGE difference.
8:06
Dan Szymborski: I just want the opportunity for my North by NL West image to become on topic again.
8:07
Dan Szymborski:
8:07
Guest: Can you try to estimate what Ohtani’s arbitration number is going to be like this offseason?
8:07
Kevin Goldstein: Ask in 12 months, he’s not arb until then.
8:08
Kevin Goldstein:
Who are you rooting for?
Red Sox (34.0% | 63 votes)
Yankees (25.4% | 47 votes)
Just A Good Game (40.5% | 75 votes)
Total Votes: 185
8:08
Jon Becker: The Angels are surely really happy they got Ohtani locked for two years last offseason, or he’d be making far more than $5.5M next year.
8:08
Dan Szymborski: Judge is at 5 years service time now, no?
8:09
Kevin Goldstein: I talked to an arb practitioner recently who said Ohtani should go in next year with a position player dollar figure and a pitching one and add ’em up.
8:09
Kevin Goldstein: Yes, Judge is a FA after NEXT year.
8:09
sadtrombone: Playoff chats in game on Fangraphs are one of my favorite things about this time of year. Thanks for doing it again!
8:09
Kevin Goldstein: Thanks for joining us, we really enjoy doing these.
8:10
Belli Flop: Polls for rooting interest and winner prediction?
8:10
Kevin Goldstein: My brand is one of nobody should predict the playoffs, so I’ll leave that poll to someone else.
8:10
Dan Szymborski: I guess having projection stuff means I should check out the Judge Q.
8:10
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Sort of like school photos, does the player or his representative get to approve the promotional photos that end up getting used on things like broadcasts and ads?
8:10
Kevin Goldstein: Nope. Photo gets taken during photo day in spring training and media relations pick them. I can’t believe i know this.
8:11
Turk Dubs: Did you guys see Velasquez is hitting 9th, playing SS with an OPS just under .600- Same as Bucky Dent
8:11
Jon Becker: The decision was basically Velasquez vs. Odor, and not only does the Bucky Dent Energy go way up with Velasquez, the defense does too.
8:11
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Because you are in the Midwest, could you go to a diner and interview patrons on what they think about Cole and Eovaldi?
8:11
Kevin Goldstein: I laughed.
8:12
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says if you signed Judge now to an extension, 6/147 would be reasonable.
8:12
Dan Szymborski: So that’s quite close to Springer
8:12
Kevin Goldstein:
Will (not should) WILL Aaron Boone keep his job if the Yankees Lose?
Yes (42.7% | 74 votes)
No (21.3% | 37 votes)
How the hell would I know? (35.8% | 62 votes)
Total Votes: 173
8:13
Kevin Goldstein: The energy is great. I really doesn’t matter much, but it’s great.
8:13
Jeremy Tice: Important question: how luxurious are all your accommodations?
8:13
Dan Szymborski: My office is very comfortable, but ungodly messy at the moment.
8:14
Kevin Goldstein: My office is very comfortable, and I have some coffee in the fridge that I’ll break out in a bit, so quite luxurious.
8:14
Greg: Why are field managers allowed to wear those hoodies and not regular uniform tops?
8:14
Jon Becker: I’m quite comfortable on my couch right now, but no coffee for me!
8:14
Kevin Goldstein: Why do they wear unis at all? It’s weird.
8:14
Kevin Goldstein: Hardest hit single of the year?
8:15
Kevin Goldstein: That ball was destroyed. Somebody get me an EV.
8:15
Dan Szymborski: It would look so weird to see an NBA coach just wearing NBA kit or NFL coach
8:15
Jon Becker: Only 95 exit velo, not very hard-hit
8:15
Jon Becker: Camera angle fooled us all!
8:15
Kevin Goldstein: Man, that felt way harder than that. Maybe I’m just exciteable.
8:15
Two Dads Playing Catch: I miss connie mack’s suit
8:16
Dan Szymborski: I’m so disappointed that Gallo suddenly stopped his run at the K record!
8:16
Derek: Lol walking out of the box there is great. Granted, in any other stadium that’s a homer, but come on dude!! It’s the first inning of a do-or-die baseball game!
8:16
Kevin Goldstein: I mean, if he ran hard it still would have been a single probably.
8:17
Kevin Goldstein: Poll on who you are rooting for is exactly 50/50 BOS/NYY. Good job, folks.
8:18
Dan Szymborski: It’ll be an interesting analytics test if Eovaldi gets stray Cy votes or not.
8:18
Kevin Goldstein: I wish the swing/no swing rule was a clearer one, but yeah, Gallo went.
8:18
Dan Szymborski: Kinda cruel to have a kershaw commecial now.
8:19
Lzfreak: How do we feel about the Senzatela extension?
8:19
Kevin Goldstein: Seemed reasonable.
8:19
Dan Szymborski: Fine with me.
8:19
Dan Szymborski: The problem with the Rockies is that I have zero faith they’ll do stuff they need to compete otherwise.
8:19
Jon Becker: Yeah, I know the $50.5M is jarring but that’s a fine AAV for a mid-rotation or back-end starter, the issue is that they’ll probably make him their SP2/3
8:20
Dan Szymborski: There’s now nobody in the organization who talks to me, but my read is that they still think that they’re just some tinkering around the edges and a bullpen arm or two from returning to playoffs.
8:20
Jon Becker: I will say they did a great job with Cron, and at the same time I don’t think he’d have beaten it on the open-market as an older RHH 1B. Win-win
8:20
Jon Becker: But yes, I think they may just run it back minus Story
8:20
Kevin Goldstein: I agree with that.
8:21
barrust: Which stream are you watching? ESPN or ESPN2
8:21
Kevin Goldstein: I got the deuce on. It’s not really a debate.
8:21
Dan Szymborski: Cron is just fine, but he doesn’t make the Rockies good.
8:21
Jon Becker: Right. It’s great in a vacuum but as it did this year it doesn’t matter a whole lot if they’re not good.
8:21
Jon Becker: And same, I’m watching ESPN2, which is always a treat
8:22
The Stranger: On a scale of 1-10, how stupid is the OPS+ graphic that says “MLB average: 100”?
8:22
Kevin Goldstein: Nothing wrong with trying to get everyone up to speed….
8:22
Dan Szymborski: The deal itself is good for the Rockies, it’s just that it’s the wrong team.
8:23
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would have given Cron 2/25 at Coors.
8:23
Kevin Goldstein: Cole got away with one there. Really bad location, which was his problem towards the end of the year.
8:24
Tim: Statcast is good so far. I like that they have a bit of a light touch with the stats, the game is still front is center.
8:24
Dan Szymborski: I like not listening to A-Rod, but at the the same time, I kinda wonder what he’s saying.
8:24
Kevin Goldstein: Like slowing down to look at the car crash.
8:25
Dan Szymborski: You miss the moments like the even/odd lead thing or the time he said the Astros were his big sleeper pick going in to 2020.
Dan Dan Dan: If MLB did something like the Manningcast who would you want to see? I think Hunter Pence would be fun
8:26
Kevin Goldstein: Enos Cabell, but you’d have to put in on HBO or something.
8:26
Dan Szymborski: Not a job for me. Last time I sewed something was like a button a year ago and I sewed the button to both the shirt and the shirt I was wearing at the time.
8:26
Kevin Goldstein: Cole’s command so far is not what you normally get.
8:27
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Need the Brockmire-cast
8:27
Dan Dan Dan: I assume if Arod says something really dumb Twitter will let me know, i don’t need to suffer in real time
8:27
Morbo: A-rod is pobably something about making sure you tie your shoelaces the right way in elimination games making the difference between the pitcher being effective and giving up an odd lead in the first
8:28
Dan Szymborski: “It all comes from basics and what is more basic than putting on your shoes? Even Shoeless Joe Jackson had to wear shoes, I think.”
8:28
Kevin Goldstein: Cole’s offspeed command is there . . . will be interesting to see the usage as he goes.
8:28
Ryan: Do any of these teams matchup well with the Rays or a gentleman`s sweep by the Stable is the most likely?
8:28
Jon Becker: Anything is possible in a short series!
8:28
Kevin Goldstein: ANYTHING.
8:28
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks the Yankees are better but that the a single-Cole series makes them a worse matchup to the Rays than the Sox.
8:28
Jon Becker: About Cole’s off speed command…
8:29
Kevin Goldstein: Absolute meatball. 89. No action. Right down the . . . . I’ll keep it family friendly, middle.
8:29
Dan Szymborski: Bogey at 12 o’clock.
8:29
Dan Szymborski: That was a baaaaaad pitch.
8:30
asinwreck: What will the NY Post headline be for this game?
8:30
Kevin Goldstein: Taking suggestions…..
8:30
Dan Szymborski: “NOT KING COLE”
8:30
Kevin Goldstein: Oh crap, BIG early lead to Dan.
8:32
OneTrueWonka: “BYE BYE BOONIE”
8:32
Guest: My phone tried to auto-correct Gerrit Cole to “Ferret Roll”–is this a new nickname for Cole, or just a side dish served alongside Cincinnati chili?
8:32
Kevin Goldstein: CINCINNATI CHILI IS DELICIOUS. I will not be taking questions on this.
8:32
Jon Becker: I believe Dan is most geographically qualified to answer that, but I went to college in Ohio and yes, that DOES sound like a Skyline side dish
8:32
Ian Swirka: Cole in the Stocking
8:32
Jon Becker: Kevin: I’d rather have the ferret role
8:32
biggestdummy: Cole Flawed
8:33
Dan Szymborski: In the neural network nickname list I made last year for the Yankees, Cole was The Snack Man.
8:33
Lzfreak: Dan do you have the neural network nicknames?
8:33
Camden: Seeing the graphic about Cole’s last 5 starts vs his previous 15 (or whatever the number was), is his worse performance due to fatigue or maybe opposition? Btw that CH right up in the middle of the zone.
8:33
Kevin Goldstein: We can only wonder, but I do wonder about the hamstring issue he has.
8:33
Jon Becker: Hamstring could still be bothering him just enough, though Boone of course denied that
8:33
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t make a new list for this year! But I could!
8:33
Jeremy Tice: Gerrit Cold
8:33
Jimmie Foxxalorian: A Coled Night in Fenway
8:35
Jon Becker: Not the result he wanted but a great cut there from Torres, was doing so much rolling over on pitches like that this year
8:35
Morbo: Got up to throw some sourdough in the oven missed the pitch and hr but I heard it. But I had a 550° cast iron in my hand so I couldn’t do anything about it
8:35
Guest: I can’t wait to hear the narrative about Cole being bad in WC games…
8:35
Greg Allen: So anyone on this chat not watching the statcast broadcast and enduring the A-roid injection?
8:36
Belli Flop: I’m in a larger group setting so I must endure Rodriguez
8:36
Kevin Goldstein: Find new friends.
8:37
Kevin Goldstein: I gotta say once again, I really don’t hate either team. Have friends in both front offices, but I do find Brett Gardner especially grating.
8:38
Camden: Any thoughts on how the Red Sox lineup? Hernandez batting 2nd for the Sox an “optimal” move?
8:38
Kevin Goldstein: Dan and Jon might disagree, but I really don’t think lineups matter all that much in terms of optimizing. I’m a big fan of hitting players where they are comfortable.
8:38
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard doing this and still rooting for and against things the same way I did, say, when I was 18.
8:38
Phil: I’m listening to the Boston radio broadcast (no ESPN, sigh) and they keep complaining about the home plate ump–are they right?
8:38
Kevin Goldstein: He’s missed some on both sides.
8:38
Dan Szymborski: Totally agree with Kevin.
8:39
Dan Szymborski: The difference between the best possible lineup and an average one is a few runs per year. So might as well keep players comfortable.
8:39
Jon Becker: I think generally it’s pretty overblown, yeah, unless you’re talking about a month-long stretch or the difference between 2nd and 8th or something. One spot in one game just doesn’t matter
8:39
Dan Szymborski: If, say, putting a player in leadoff makes a player feel like they have to alter a successful approach, then maybe putting him in leadoff isn’t a good idea, even if an optimization algorithm suggests it is
8:39
Kevin Goldstein: George Springer is the perfect example. Feels like a 4-5 hitter, but wants to and loves hitting leadoff.
8:39
Dan Szymborski: Now, there are limits.
8:40
Dan Szymborski: You don’t want to put Alcides Escobar leadoff if possible.
8:40
Bunk: I find it weird that my usual dislike of the Yankees is basically zero right now. Huge fan of Judge and the Yankees not winning a World Series recently is really throwing me off.
8:40
Kevin Goldstein: You’re just maturing, Bunk. That’s all.
8:40
Dan Szymborski: Who plays is just so much more important than what order they play.
8:40
Jason: I’m guessing comfort > moving players around in lineup for optimization. This isn’t sim baseball.
8:40
Kevin Goldstein: I say it all the time, these are human beings, not strat-o-matic cards.
8:41
Jon Becker: Yep. Like Dan said, there are limits, but in a Springer situation, where he’s always been on great teams and you’re splitting hairs deciding how to order the first 4-5 spots, just hit guys where they’re comfortable
8:41
Guest: You don’t want Alcides Escobar. FTFY
8:41
Kevin Goldstein: Bah, it’s only $1m, and gets you some depth insurance. He turns back into a pumpkin and you let him go at little cost. Move makes total sense to me.
8:41
ksoze0720: the eovaldi grunts make me feel like a watching a top tier tennis player serve
8:41
Kevin Goldstein: Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke say hello.
8:42
Joey Caltrain: Kevin, you can’t just say you find Brett Gardner grating and then not explain why! Now we’re all curious!
8:42
Kevin Goldstein: Just the constant case of the ass. I’m sure it’s important to him and I’m being childish.
8:42
King Cole: some real bad at bats by the bottom of the order yankee hitters.
8:43
Jon Becker: The Yankees structured their lineup today around defense, I’m sure Sánchez and Odor (although he finished his season terribly) are both very much in play. Doesn’t help that Urshela isn’t moving well either.
8:44
RyGuy: As a Jay fan, Gardner has been killing us for years, hate all his antics, but what a career
8:44
Kevin Goldstein: It’s kinda remarkable, I remember him coming out of the draft as a 20 power, 80 run water bug. Transformed himself.
8:45
Jon Becker: Only Yankee hitter to be on the active roster all season (along with Luetge and Chad Green), and that kind of stability is incredibly valuable even if the performance isn’t up to his standard.
8:45
Kevin Goldstein: Jon with a remarkable factoid there. I had no idea. Availability is one of the more underrated stats in the game.
8:45
Morbo: Drinking a 2020 Goose Island Bourbon County while watching the game. Anyone else drinking anything good?
8:45
Kevin Goldstein: Iced coffee, but I’ll have a cocktail in a bit….
8:45
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I did not see a 14-year career coming for Gardner
8:46
Kevin Goldstein: Kevin Plawecki repping the Midwest (Purdue)
8:46
Derek: Is there any chance whatsoever that anyone gets popped for sticky stuff in the postseason? Will they even be checking?
8:46
Kevin Goldstein: Almost certainly not; Yes.
8:47
Morbo: Kevin, I recommend a boulevardier! Had one with dinner. I’m probably done for the night after my beer
8:47
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t like beer. Never drink it [ducks.]
Jon Becker: That’s how I knew that factoid! You learn a lot from Sporcling to kill some time.
8:48
Kevin Goldstein: 105 EV on the Plawecki double. Cole 98FB caught too much of the plate.
8:48
Morbo: A boulevardier is a cocktail. It’s basically a negroni but with whiskey instead of gin
8:48
Kevin Goldstein: Ah!
8:48
Dan Szymborski: My stomach means I have to stay away from cocktails
8:49
Joey Caltrain: If Chris Sale had been at full health, would you have preferred to have him for this game instead of Eovaldi?
8:49
Jon Becker: No. Command has been pretty spotty, the back foot slider has been pretty MIA and that’s especially troubling against a team as righty-heavy as the Yankees
8:50
Jon Becker: Now I guess if full health is “pre Tommy John” then yes, of course
8:50
J: would the Yankees been better off with Sanchez + Odor starting then Velasquez/higashioka for defense or leave the gary/Roogie combo for pinch hitting? Feels like with Cole’s Ks and handing Yankees pen a lead the former would have been a better choice.
8:50
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t trust Gary Sanchez behind the plate in the playoffs. I know this is a touchy subject, but a big reason the Yankees lost the 2017 ALCS is because Gary Sanchez can’t catch a baseball.
8:51
Jon Becker: This goes back to the lineup spot discussion too. If a pitcher’s more comfortable throwing to a certain catcher, even if that’s not backed up in anything besides his mental state, he gets that say, IMO.
8:51
Brian: great pitch
8:51
Kevin Goldstein: Killer pitch.
8:52
Guest: Seeing Plawecki in the lineup makes me ask: what exactly happened to Christian Vazquez’s offense this year?
8:52
Kevin Goldstein: If you look at his career, it’s 2019 that looks like the fluke, not 2021.
8:52
Morbo: Also higashioka is basically Cole’s personal catcher at this point
8:52
Kevin Goldstein: Also true.
8:54
Kevin Goldstein: Way too easy last out there.
8:55
Kevin Goldstein:
After 2 innings, we have Boston at 68.7% to win . . . will they?
Hell yeah (72.4% | 84 votes)
Hell no (27.5% | 32 votes)
Total Votes: 116
8:55
Divcoman: 39 pitches in two innings for Cole. Is this important?
8:55
Kevin Goldstein: VERY
8:55
Jsolid: So far Cole’s most successful pitch is fastball at the eyes.
8:55
Dan Szymborski: WHY ISNT HECK AN OPTION
8:56
Kevin Goldstein: Cole has been among the best pitchers in baseball by elevating FBs, why stop now?
8:56
Dan Szymborski: Since it’s a commercial, here’s the neural network-generated nickname list for these two rosters.
8:56
Dan Szymborski:
8:57
Jon Becker: A LOT of early swinging for the Yankees today, Eovaldi’s doing a great job at getting that fastball under the hitters’ hands
8:57
Belli Flop: Cat update Dan?
8:57
Dan Szymborski: Last I checked, they were all sleeping
8:58
5 Run Homer: A fun part of the postseason ESPN games is learning how much worse American commercials are
8:58
Kevin Goldstein: C’mon, America is worst at lots of things.
8:58
Dan Szymborski: But here some fighting in the floor directly above me, which is the catlets (if Cassiopeia was involved, there would be hissing)
8:58
Ian Swirka: Those are excellent but I do miss Basquiat and Damage as Bogey and Devers from the previous batch.
8:58
Big Bubba Crosby Guy: Yankee fan chatter is that Higgy calls a bad game, does Higgy even call the game? Or is that almost all pre determined pitching plans?
8:58
Kevin Goldstein: There is absolutely a meeting, and a LONG one about game calling and attack plans, but Higgy is putting the fingers down based off that meeting.
8:59
CJ: If Yanks lose this. Is Boone gone? (He should). Is there a chance that Cash is gone too? (He should too methinks)
8:59
Kevin Goldstein: We had a poll at this earlier, results were right around 2 to 1 yes.
8:59
Kevin Goldstein: For Boone. Not Cash. Cash is really good.
9:00
Morbo: The box cutter is oddly apt for Gardner
9:00
Two Dads Playing Catch: wow bucky dent looks a lot younger than I would expect him to be
9:00
Jason: What’s your best guess on a Rizzo contract? A 1-year show-me?
9:00
Kevin Goldstein: I would bet on a modest multi-year, what does ZIPS tell us, Dan?
9:01
Jon Becker: Maybe 2y/$26M?
9:01
Kevin Goldstein: My gut was 2/24 with a weird option or something.
9:01
Jon Becker: A lot of intangibles that I think lots of teams value to some extent but he’s been more good than great the past two years and that’s no bueno for a 1B-only
9:02
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 2/33 or 3/45
9:02
Kevin Goldstein: 99 drop down! That was awesome.
9:03
Jon Becker: Weird to say Eovaldi’s a finesse power-pitcher, but that’s really what he’s been tonight. Locating really well, varying his windup and release points just enough, keeping hitters off balance
9:03
5 Run Homer: When Eovaldi is on he’s underratedly fun to watch
9:03
Morbo: Who’s his agent?
9:03
Guest: I was hoping the Eovaldi-Rizzo matchups would be worth the price of admission!
9:03
Kevin Goldstein: Rizzo has Sports One. Kinda a mid-size group with a few big leaguers. He’s their biggest client.
9:04
The Stranger: How much work did you all put into the FG staff playoff predictions? Literal coin tosses? quick run in ZiPS? Detailed position-by-position breakdown of every potential matchup?
9:04
Jon Becker: Now this is a fun question. Not much work!
9:04
Dan Szymborski: I did my projections before ZiPS
9:04
Jon Becker: Ultimately it’s very much a crapshoot, so I don’t want to psych myself out by going with anything but my gut
9:04
Kevin Goldstein: I spent 37.2 seconds on it.
9:04
Cora Cora Cora: So I leave Nate in if all goes well for 6 then turn to the pen like Cash did with Snell…or do I let him go longer if he is only hovering around 80-90 pitches?
9:04
Kevin Goldstein: If he looks like this after six and is in the 80s in terms of pitch count, he gets the seventh.
9:05
Dan Szymborski: I had my award ballot to fill out and I spend a *lot* of time with that, so I don’t go crazy with the playoff picks.
9:05
Jon Becker: I definitely don’t think the Red Sox are going to be overthinking it with times through the order. The bullpen just isn’t good enough for that right now
9:06
Jon Becker: If it’s a close game they’d probably be thrilled to have Whitlock be the only reliever they use
9:06
CJ: Was Yanks impatient on Eovaldi, or did he get better because he left Yanks? I know he had a big injury, but Yanks surely could’ve hold on to him if they wanted
9:06
Camden: Middle-inning talk, any word on the Winter Meetings this year? As bright-eyed and bushy-tailed college grad trying to make it in baseball, there does not seem to be any public info on when it is going to happen. Also the PBEO has nothing posted.
9:06
Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it’s in Florida (yikes!) and we might (will probably) be a week into a work stoppage . . .
9:07
Dan Szymborski: SUPER NINTENDO
9:07
Kevin Goldstein: Live by the elevated FB . . . you know the rest.
9:07
YardGoat: This feels like a game that will be 2-0 or 2-1 entering the 7th
9:07
Kevin Goldstein: How about now?
9:08
Dan Szymborski: If you hit a ball 600 feet, should they take a run away from the opponent too?
9:08
Kevin Goldstein: I got to know Kiké a bit during his time in the Astros minor league system, and he’s as wonderful as you think.
9:08
Dan Szymborski: That felt even longer than 440-something
9:09
Belli Flop: MOONSHOT
9:09
Dan Szymborski: Oort Cloudshot
9:09
Dan Szymborski: Yankees still have to approach this game like it’s 0-0. This is the season.
9:09
Jon Becker: Clay Holmes warming for the Yankees, which is the guy you’d want to get out of a jam with runners on. Huge sinker
9:10
Shodai: Speaking of contracts, what’s my big beefy lad Schwarber looking at? Still not over that non-tender.
9:10
Kevin Goldstein: Dan? This one is real tough in terms of a gut call….
9:10
Alcides Escobar’s Mom: Mr. Symborski. My son had a 1.7 WAR this year and just signed with the Nationals for another year. Don’t make me call your mother. Peace out.
9:10
Dan Szymborski: That’s what they call getting out while ahead.
9:10
Jon Becker: I’ll give a gut call on Schwarber! 2y/$32M
9:11
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 3/58 for Schwarber
9:11
G Cole: Isn’t it awful that I throw so hard that when I leave one over the middle, the hitter almost always turns it into a gopher ball?
9:11
Kevin Goldstein: Gerrit Cole has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last four years. Let’s not start acting like he’s not good because of what has happened in the last 70 minutes.
9:12
Dan Szymborski: Cole remains their best hand I think. Even if you lost the last pocket aces, doesn’t mean you fold this one.
9:12
Jon Becker: Yep. Seeing all the takes that Boone should be fired for this, when this is on Cole, ultimately.
9:12
Jon Becker: Aaaand here comes Holmes
9:13
Kevin Goldstein: I’m kinda surprised by this, but it feels like I’m on an island…
9:13
Dan Szymborski: I thought they’d go a little longer with him.
9:13
Dan Szymborski: He looked almost resigned.
9:13
Jon Becker: I totally get the sense of urgency, but do I trust that bullpen for six innings? Not really!
9:13
Dan Szymborski: Did you notice anything in his arm Kevin? He made way more mistake pitches than usual, it feels.
9:14
Dan Szymborski: And they pulled him quick and he didn’t appear to protest too much.
9:14
Kevin Goldstein: I was watching the lower half more, and I did not see anything obvious.
9:14
Dan Szymborski: (I didn’t see anything, but you’re way more likely to pick up on something than me in this sense)
9:14
Kevin Goldstein: Clay Holmes with PIT: 42 IP, 25 BB — Clay Holmes with NYY: 28 IP, 4 BB.
9:15
Dan Szymborski: You still have to approach this game like it’s a tie, with all hands on deck. You can worry about the bullpen’s health when you’re in a five-game series.
9:15
Jon Becker: Yep. Chapman’s pitching in this game no matter the score, for example. But the more guys you throw, the more options you have for someone to not have it…
9:16
Jon Becker: But Cole clearly didn’t have it, so, really, what options did they have?
9:16
Kevin Goldstein: Tell that to the Rays.
9:16
Dan Szymborski: *Should* Boone get fired? I don’t think so. But *will* he is a tricky question. MLB front offices have advanced very far, but there’s still a “someone’s gonna get the guillotine” atmosphere in a lot of ways
9:16
Morbo: It’s almost like PIT is a special kid of incompetent with pitchers
9:16
Kevin Goldstein: Not to be dramatic, but this kinda feels like the ballgame (the rest of this inning).
9:17
Dan Szymborski: Feels like they never got past the “throw hard and low” era despite hitters adjusting.
9:17
Kevin Goldstein: Shortest outing of Cole’s career. Remarkable.
9:17
Morbo: I don’t really buy the some isn’t going to have it any given night theory.
9:17
Kevin Goldstein: You should.
9:18
Kevin Goldstein: He didn’t swing. I hate the swing rule. They gotta make it specific.
9:18
Pinstripe Perry: Nobody’s checking their swing tonight apparently
9:18
Jimmie Foxxalorian: K on every check-swing
9:19
Jon Becker: Well that was a predictable outcome against Holmes
9:19
Jon Becker: Grounder rate of 69% for the year, actually went down as a Yankee despite upping his sinker usage
9:19
Kevin Goldstein: Sinker sunk. HUGE play there. Still a game.
9:20
The 6ix: You are GM of the Jays. Do you try to bring back both Semien and Ray knowing you have some arbitration raises coming and need more bullpen arms?
9:20
Jon Becker: YES
9:20
Kevin Goldstein: Yes. It’s not my money and it’s not yours.
9:20
Guest: credit due @jonbecker
9:20
Kevin Goldstein:
How many runs will it take to win this game?
3 (13.8% | 23 votes)
4 (18.0% | 30 votes)
5 (30.7% | 51 votes)
6 (25.3% | 42 votes)
7 (9.0% | 15 votes)
8+ (3.0% | 5 votes)
Total Votes: 166
9:21
Noodle: So when the broadcast lists two-seamers they might actually be sinkers instead of arm side breaking two-seamers?
9:21
Dan Szymborski: Pitch types really don’t have neat bright lines.
9:21
Kevin Goldstein: Pitch types often don’t even have dim lines.
9:21
Jon Becker: A lot of it is “let’s just call it whatever the pitcher says it is”
9:23
Morbo: To clarify my previous statement. I absolutely buy that a pitcher can not have it an be off. I don’t buy that using more relievers increases the chances. I think there are enough tools in rapsodo and the other pitching tools to have a good idea if someone’s mechanics are out of wack. I would assume that the rays monitor info like that in the bullpen and that’s why they have a reduced likelihood of relievers not having it
9:23
Kevin Goldstein: The difference between stuff in a bullpen and stuff in a game is often JARRING.
9:23
Jon Becker: Every mound is just a liiiiiiiittle different and that can be more than enough!
9:23
Kevin Goldstein: I’ve never seen the Rays warm a guy up and then sit him down off anything other than game situation, and even then it’s CRAZY rare.
9:24
Dan Szymborski: fuzzy means clustering probably more accurate, but it’s harder to apply narratively
9:25
Guest: evoldi has evolved a lot in the last four years. Anything he’s doing better or just maturing?
9:25
Kevin Goldstein: Stuff hasn’t really changed much. Command has come leaps and bounds.
9:26
Jon Becker: Gallo juuuuust missed that one
9:26
Kevin Goldstein: Wrong part of the ballpark, Joey.
9:26
Dan Szymborski: This game has felt rather brisk for Yankees-Red Sox
9:26
Astros guy: Question for Kevin, can Jairo Solis and Forrest Whitley still have sucess in majors?
9:27
Kevin Goldstein: Maybe Solis. Not optimistic on Forrest.
9:27
CJ: Dan, you just wait
9:27
Guest: Uh-oh. The Red Sox radio announcers have gone to talking about bacon.
9:27
Jon Becker: I don’t see the problem
9:27
Dan Szymborski: Bacon is always a good topic.
9:28
Morbo: That information can also be used to correct an issue too
9:28
Kevin Goldstein: I think you’re giving too much credit to the Rays, which is hard to do. Or you are at least over-thinking it. The Rays have a matrix, regardless of inning. If 5-6-7 are coming up, it’s reliever X. If reliever X looks iffy in the bullpen, he’s still getting that inning.
9:28
Dan Szymborski: Except maybe a kosher cooking show?
9:28
Two Dads Playing Catch: Eric put a 40 on Ohtani’s hit tool before the 18 season. Is that accurate? I could see going as high as a 45 but I don’t think it’s a 50. or am I crazy?
9:28
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s a 50.
9:29
bosoxfan86: Especially WOBACON
9:29
Guest: Bacon maybe better than Sterling-Waldman (of NYY radio).
9:30
Dan Szymborski: Have to run to the bathroom. If the game comes back, someone tell them to hang on for a few.
9:30
.Sharps: WobaCon should be your fangraphs fan fest name
9:30
Phil: I have had something that was marketed as kosher bacon, but it was not good.
9:30
Dan Szymborski: Turkey bacon?
9:31
Dan Szymborski:
9:31
Morbo: Turkey bacon isn’t bacon
9:32
Aaron: Holmes has a pretty serious ass-to-torso ratio going on
9:32
Jared: With Holmes in, the game is definitely afoot!
9:33
The 6ix: Fenway always seems to look great at night. What are your favourite ballparks for a night game? Day game?
9:33
Kevin Goldstein: Dodger Stadium at night is pretty damn spectacular.
9:33
Marlin Child: So I saw ESPN had an interview with Bucky Dent earlier – in situations like that they pay for his ticket, right?
9:33
Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah.
9:33
Kevin Goldstein: If I got into WS games for free, Bucky Dent certainly does.
9:34
CJ: On the other hand, if Boston scores here, it may be a quick game indeed
9:34
Matt: Renfroe seems to have made some really positive adjustments this year. Sustainable? Is there another gear there?
9:34
Kevin Goldstein: I mean, he’s still kind of a low OBP power goof. 2+ win player.
9:35
Kevin Goldstein: I held my breath there when Torres got a bit caught out on the short hop.
9:35
SammySosasCork: humblebrag
9:35
Kevin Goldstein: Nah, just a brag brag.
9:36
Lzfreak: What former Pirate will get the most outs for the Yankees tonight?
9:36
Jon Becker: I’ll be surprised if Holmes doesn’t go back out there for the fifth, so him
9:37
Kyle: how many runs up and how late in the game does it have to be for a manager to put in a low leverage pitcher to save their more important guys for the ALDS? not saying we’re anywhere near that point yet though
9:37
Kevin Goldstein: 7? Gotta play for now.
9:37
Kevin Goldstein: Any even then, 7 after the seventh….
9:38
Eel Ffilc: There’s been some take about Boone losing his gig tonight but what about Cashman? Is he pretty safe?
9:38
Kevin Goldstein: Again, I think he’s fine (and should be).
9:40
Marlin Child: Brian Cashman has the kind of job security Supreme Court justices envy
9:40
Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea how anyone can think Cashman isn’t a good, scratch that, REALLY GOOD, GM.
9:42
Dan: Seems like firing Aaron Boone wouldn’t solve much
9:42
Jon Becker: It wouldn’t, firing a manager rarely does. But it’s the easiest thing a team can do to curry favor
9:42
5 Run Homer: I know it’s the playoffs and anything can happen but the Sox get absolutely waxed by Tampa right?
9:42
Kevin Goldstein: It’s the playoffs, and anything can happen.
9:43
Lzfreak: What are the odds Eovaldi finishes this game?
9:43
Kevin Goldstein: 0.000000000571349411284571%
9:44
Kevin Goldstein: NO CHANCE.
9:44
Kevin Goldstein: No Chance comment re: strike 3 to Higgy.
9:44
Dan: Made me think about the Mets not picking up the option on Luis Rojas’ contract (managing a team with a flawed roster), even though that seemed to be more about letting a new President choose the manager
9:45
Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, kinda have to do that, unless you absolutely LOVE the manger.
9:45
Jon Becker: Seems like they’re going to pick the new manager before hiring a president though, which doesn’t do much to quell the notion that Alderson isn’t going to be as hands-off as he claims
9:45
Kevin Goldstein: We’ll see…
9:45
Matt: Is Tyler Wade good enough to be a MLB starter at 2B?
9:46
Kevin Goldstein: Good lord no.
9:46
Bunk: Thoughts on changing postseason format a little? I don’t like the Giants possibly facing the Dodgers in the NLDS. I think the best team in each league should face team with lowest record not wild card automatically.
9:46
Jon Becker: Yeah, I agree with this. Re-seed after the WCG.
9:46
SammySosasCork: Alex Cora seems like a good manager. I have no data or any real anecdotal reasons to support this statement.
9:46
Kevin Goldstein: I agree.
9:47
5 Run Homer: Sometimes being a good manager is about vibes and Alex Cora has great vibes in the dugout
9:47
Kevin Goldstein: I agree.
9:48
Dan Szymborski: I would definitely reseed
9:48
asinwreck: Surprised Holmes isn’t back out for the fifth?
9:48
Dan Szymborski: Especially given the odds that the wild card will be better than one of the three division winners
9:48
Kevin Goldstein: Gleyber is so much better at 2B than SS.
9:48
Dan Szymborski: (And I’m back)
9:48
Jon Becker: A little bit surprised bout Holmes but if the next guy was going to be Severino I’d want to give him a clean inning
9:49
Kevin Goldstein: Dan: What ARE the odds that a WC team will be more than the 4th or 5th best team?
9:49
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s one thing to keep Gleyber at shortstop when he’s mashing the ball. But when he’s struggling there, too, take one thing off his plate.
9:49
The 6ix: People in Toronto want Montoyo fired. Ridiculous.
9:49
Kevin Goldstein: I agree again!
9:49
Two Dads Playing Catch: What do you think about the Ausmus to Mets rumors? I think he’s boring and they should put some effort into finding a guy who could actually bring a direction for the team
9:49
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think Ausmus is a bad name, but I agree it’s uninspiring. I will say for the 582nd time: Will Venable is going to be a really good big league manager, and soon.
9:50
Dan Szymborski: Uninspiring is about how I’d put it.
9:50
Dan Szymborski: Personally, I think there are too many interesting people to give chances to that I rarely would settle with uninspiring.
9:50
5 Run Homer: The players in Toronto clearly love Montoyo. Shouldn’t that be much more valuable than bullpen management, which is basically voodoo at times anyway?
9:51
Kevin Goldstein: It matters . . .
9:51
Pinstripe Perry: Asking KG specifically because he’s been around him, is the thought that Joe Espada could be a good manager at some point?
9:51
Kevin Goldstein: I think he deserves a shot. I wonder if Astros stink will hurt him, but AJ got another chance and did a phenomenal job this year in Detroit.
9:52
Brian CashGod: Cashman is an S-tier GM, and while Boone isn’t a great manager, he’s not the core issue with the Yankees either. The reason they haven’t made a World Series since ’09 is because ownership is not incentivized to do so – from Hal Steinbrenner’s view, why spend more money to have the best team in the league when you make almost just revenue as much for having a merely competitive team, but bring home a lot more profit? Great for him of course, but incredibly frustrating as a fan that Cashman has been kept from taking the incremental steps to maximize the team’s talents.
9:52
Tom: Really incredible to me that the projections have both of these teams at higher odds of winning the WS then the Rays.
9:52
Dan Szymborski: Not in ZiPS
9:52
Dan Szymborski: The FG methodology never really likes the Rays
9:52
Two Dads Playing Catch: Javy Baez with Juan Soto plate discipline is a __ win player on average
9:52
Jon Becker: I bet Dan could give an actual answer here but I feel like 8 is the floor here
9:53
Dan Szymborski: I’m not directly involved in that part, but my hypothesis is that we should probably be more conservative with playing time projected so that depth is valued.
9:53
Dan Szymborski: God, I don’t know. All the wins?
9:53
Conner from AZ: I sort of disagree with Cashman being an S-tier GM. He’s good, but I don’t think he’s at the level of guys like Friedman or Farhan
9:53
Pinstripe Perry: Glad to hear you think he’s worth a shot KG. Just think Espada’s the type of guy NYY would be looking at (was 3B coach there for the beginning of this run) if they move off of Boone to appease the masses.
9:53
Dan: Would you be surprised if the Mets hire another first-time manager? I feel like a lot of the issues stemmed partially from inexperience (and I tend to believe that Luis Rojas is going to be a good manager, as many others have noted)
9:54
Kevin Goldstein: As we have reached the halfway mark, a quick thanks to the hundreds of fine fine people hanging out with us tonight!
9:54
Steve: Curious while watching Severino, how much does the overall pitch data change on a guy who has suffered serious throwing arm injuries? Are they completely different guys, even after being well past the recovery phase?
9:54
Kevin Goldstein: Very player to player. Ranges from suddenly better to exactly the same to way worse.
9:55
Guest: If you could start a franchise with 22-year-old Mike Trout or present-day Erik Neander, whom would you choose?
9:55
Kevin Goldstein: Trout. Trout. Trout. Trout. Trout.
9:55
Jon Becker: Trout. There’s one Trout, there are plenty of very very good front office people
9:55
Kevin Goldstein: What Jon said.
9:56
Jon Becker: Odor for Velazquez here BTW, so we’re about to see how mobile Urshela is at short after hurting his Literally Everything sprinting into the dugout on Sunday
9:56
Roman: Will Venable to SD makes sense given his time there, but hard to see the Padres going with another rookie manager. Someone like Beltran would bring more cred as an ex-player to balance out a lack of experience
9:56
Kevin Goldstein: Is Odor really that much better offensively?
9:57
Guest: Traveling somewhere remote and can only watch the play by play on gamecast, really appreciate you all for making that much more enjoyable
9:57
Kevin Goldstein: Where you going?
9:57
Kevin Goldstein: CLOSE GAME ARE MORE FUN.
9:57
Jon Becker: Finished his season 2-for-28 or thereabouts in September, so I might’ve just gone for defense, yeah
9:57
Dan Szymborski: Well, at least it won’t be a shutout!
9:57
Jackson: Close games are more fun but also bad for my sleep when I have to be up at 5:30
9:58
Jason: What is the WAR of a good front office person?
9:58
Kevin Goldstein: I think the WAR of a good FRONT OFFICE is considerable, but I also think a good front office is very much a team effort and not just one person.
9:58
Dan Szymborski: There’s definitely some Baseball Writer Privilege here. Staying up to watch the game is the job, so it fits better with life, even if it makes sleep schedule odd at times
9:58
Dan Szymborski: I’m the chronic 4:30 AM filer of the FG staff.
9:58
Alf: Are there a ton of Yankees fans at Fenway??
9:59
Kevin Goldstein: Sure sounds like it.
9:59
Andy: Why do they call it a “front office” and not a “back office”?
9:59
Kevin Goldstein: I’m the chronic went to bed at 4:30am person at FG.
9:59
Jon Becker: Not sure I agree with pulling Eovaldi here…
9:59
Dan Szymborski: Trying not to make a dirty joke, Andy.
9:59
Kevin Goldstein: I agree. The Judge single is a BS single.
10:00
Luke: I was just thinking I was kind of hoping for a blowout either way because I can’t start October sleep deprived if I want to make it through still employed.
10:00
The 6ix: Top five front offices?
10:00
Kevin Goldstein: Things have really changed in the past 20 years; I think most FOs are good.
10:01
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Ned Yost to the Padres!
10:01
Kevin Goldstein: I’m not convinced he wants that job.
10:01
Dan Szymborski: I’m hard on the Royals, but 25 years ago, they’d be a top 10 FO
10:01
Kevin Goldstein:
Should Boston have pulled Eovaldi here?
Yes (17.3% | 29 votes)
No (74.2% | 124 votes)
Pulled what? (8.3% | 14 votes)
Total Votes: 167
10:01
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Are MLB teams so cheap they don’t subscribe to Fangtaphs?
10:02
Dan Szymborski: Teams do!
10:02
Kevin Goldstein: VERY MUCH SO
10:02
Dan Szymborski: I can’t say the name of the team, but during the height of the pandemic, one team got a subscription for each of their employees
10:03
Dan Szymborski: We usually come in handy. Because if nothing else, we still provide a “second opinion” on a lot of things.
10:03
Kevin Goldstein: And if you are here, a quick PBS-style plug: We need your support. We rely on readers like you to keep everything you love going, including chats like this one. So please go the our homepage and subscribe.
10:03
Brian CashGod: Living in Japan and watching MLB with breakfast took some adjustments, but not having to worry about games running late is pretty great
10:03
Kevin Goldstein: But at least you get to watch Sumo at a decent hour, unlike me?
10:04
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Ooof
10:04
Conner from AZ: Omg
10:04
Dan Szymborski: I like the contrast
10:04
Kevin Goldstein: Holy crap what a horrible send.
10:04
SammySosasCork: very unnecessary send, ESPECIALLY with 1 out
10:05
josh: It flew under the radar because of the playoff races, but what do yall make of Bill Schmidt being named the Rockies GM? From afar, it seems…not great
10:05
Kevin Goldstein: I said in my chat Monday, Rockies gotta Rockie.
10:05
Jon Becker: Two outs or down one run, sure, hope for a bad throw or bobble or something. But in that situation, man…
10:05
Jon Becker: Couple of great throws though, don’t want to overlook that
10:05
Kevin Goldstein: Again, HORRIBLE send.
10:05
Bill: 115 MPH? Man. That would have been a home run anywhere else
10:05
Kevin Goldstein: Fantastic execution, no question, but horrible send.
10:05
Pinstripe Perry: Pinch hitting Odor before Sanchez is a tell that this is the end of the road for Gary in NY, right?
10:05
Kevin Goldstein: It should be.
10:05
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I can’t fathom that decision
10:06
Dan Szymborski: As SammySosasCork said above, with 1 out, not in this lifetime, not in the next
10:06
Ian Swirka: The spirit of Wendell Kim is strong in that box.
10:06
Dan Szymborski: Windmill!
10:06
ksoze0720: how different is data analyzed/accessible via FG vs what teams have access to?
10:06
Jon Becker: A lot of talk, understandably, about what the Yankees re going to do at shortstop in the offseason, but Sánchez has probably worn out his welcome and Higgy shouldn’t be more than a backup
10:06
Kevin Goldstein: The big advantage at this point (or I guess what I miss the most) is minor league data.
10:07
Dan Szymborski: I’m quite clever at getting interesting data, but there’s no comparison in being able to get it *all* easily
10:08
Mike: KG, speaking of horrible sends, was there any thinking behind Gary Pettis’ windmill of an arm or was that just his call
10:08
Kevin Goldstein: There definitely was. We talked a lot about how there’s the measurement you have to make at the time about the runner and the thrower(s), but you have to add in a variable for chances to execute. I brought this up early, but in the 2017 ALCS, it was an auto-send on anything close because Gary Sanchez can’t catch the baseball.
10:09
Marlin Child: Why do the Yankees seem to be so down on Sanchez? He’s not actually that terrible, right?
10:09
Kevin Goldstein: He’s a guy who should be a DH, and he doesn’t have that much H other than the power….
10:10
Conner from AZ: Where does Gary even play from here on out for someone else? DH? Or will another team think they can fix him at C to be at least serviceable?
10:11
Dan Szymborski: The problem is that if you don’t believe he can play catcher, then he’s not all that exciting a DH
10:11
Pinstripe Perry: C, SS and CF are probably the 3 most important positions and they are burning questions for Cashman and NYY this offseason. One looks like it can be solved easily with $, the others require a bit more creativity.
10:11
Kevin Goldstein: I remain of the belief that Carlos Correa is the perfect fit in NYY.
10:11
Dan Szymborski: Unless he has a *huge* offensive boost post-catching. Which *is* possible because catching is weird.
10:11
Guest: just joined the chat now. has there been any discussion of arod treating joey gallo like hes chopped liver
10:12
Dan Szymborski: We’ve been in the Statcast one!
10:12
Kevin Goldstein: More like lots of discussion about how nobody is watching the espn broadcast!
10:12
Morbo: Kevin I do not share your optimism on Correa I think the injuries catch up with him sooner rather than later
10:12
mybloodyballantine: Also lots of talk about the Rockies for some reason
10:12
Dan Szymborski: We go where the questions are!
10:13
Chamaco: Never shoulda made Gallo shave the beard
10:13
Kevin Goldstein: Correa just had his healthiest season and was a six-win player
10:14
mybloodyballantine: I want some highly sought after free agent to refuse to shave his beard and dare the yankees to force him
10:14
Kevin Goldstein: I HAVE ALWAYS DREAMED FOR THIS.
10:14
Bill: What do you think Correa gets as a FA? What does ZIPS think?
10:14
Jon Becker: A lot; a lot
10:15
Dan Szymborski: Last run I did was like 6/160, I think.
10:15
Kevin Goldstein: I’m taking the over.
10:15
Jon Becker: Yeah, I was going to say 8y/$240M
10:15
Another Kevin: Correa is getting 200 mil, easy
10:15
Dan Szymborski: I think ZiPS is under too!
10:15
Dan Szymborski: Someone will be more optimistic about health than ZiPS
10:16
Sooo: do you think Gallo walked so much in Texas partly because of his lack of protection? He’s a ghost on the yanks…
10:16
Kevin Goldstein: 16.2% BB rate with NYY. It’s not like he turned into Alfredo Griffin. I’m the only person here who remembers Alfredo Griffin….
10:16
Jon Becker: He was the guy who was an All-Star because he happened to be another player’s guest to the festivities and someone got hurt, right?
10:17
Kevin Goldstein: More importantly re: Griffin is his 1984 season. 442 PA and FOUR walks.
10:18
Kevin Goldstein: And that’s what a good send looks like.
10:18
Jon Becker: I thought for sure he’d be dead to rights, shows what I know!
10:19
Guest: Does zips adjust for winners curse, or is it trying to predict what expected value is?
10:19
Dan Szymborski: Just expected value.
10:19
Dan Szymborski: Too many contours of an auction!
10:19
Dan Szymborski: And the weird CBA winter.
10:19
Dan Szymborski: We could literally have nothing happen for two months.
10:19
Kevin Goldstein: or three . . .
10:20
Kevin Goldstein: Sorry, we should enjoy playoff baseball. I’m just very pessimistic about the upcoming labor strife.
10:20
Guest: Yankees dead to rights?
10:20
Kevin Goldstein: It’s not good, but it’s far from over.
10:21
Jon Becker: The Red Sox might have Nick Pivetta closing, so yeah, this isn’t over
10:21
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Alfredo Griffin was in the composite photo of a 1980s article in Games Magazine on rotisserie baseball — first I’d ever heard of it.
10:21
josh: how much interaction do you have with teams about zips? is it like prospects where you adjust based on industry feedback?
10:21
Dan Szymborski: All data.
10:21
Dan Szymborski: No opinion except picking a position if I know someone’s changing
10:22
Dan Szymborski: And even if opinions made it better, I’d be against it, as the whole basis is to get a data-opinion.
10:22
Bill: Good answer, Dan! As I tell my students, the data are.
10:22
Phil: Apropos of nothing in particular, I continue to despise the three-batter minimum rule.
10:22
Kevin Goldstein: You and me both.
10:22
Dan Szymborski: datum/data!
10:23
Morbo: A fellow Latin nerd
10:23
Guest: 94 crushed the 16 year old me. Took a long while to come back full time. I don’t want to go through that again.
10:23
Dan Szymborski: We same age!
10:23
Marlin Child: How exactly does one pronounce datum
10:23
Jon Becker: I say day-tum but I think dat-um can be correct too? Maybe?
10:23
Dan Szymborski: The same two pronunciation for data
10:23
Dan Szymborski: They’re both right I believe
10:24
Two Dads Playing Catch: Who debuts first, Whitley or Gore?
10:24
Brian CashGod: Correa in pinstripes could be entertaining, he might be the first Yankee to get a better reception at Fenway than in the Bronx
10:24
Dan Szymborski: Whitley-Gore sounds like a prion disease.
10:24
Kevin Goldstein: Yankee fans would love him by the end of April
10:24
Floyd: In your opinion, is the three-batter minimum a “forever” rule or if a pitch clock solves whatever time issues the league wants to solve the three-batter minimum could go away?
10:24
5 Run Homer: I love hearing Petriello on the broadcast because he embraces the Remembering Guys lifetsyle
10:24
Kevin Goldstein: The really frustrating thing about the three batter rule is that it’s had almost no effect on game time.
10:25
Dan Szymborski: I do approve of pitcher roster limits
10:25
Jon Becker: Was supposed to be 13/13 but because of last season they didn’t do a limit. Would hope it’s a 13-pitcher limit even if rosters are 27 or whatever under the new CBA
10:26
Guest: Statcast broadcast should replace Eduardo *ducks*
10:26
Kevin Goldstein: Eduardo is a good dude.
10:26
Bill: We should play a game – ESPN purported nickname or neural network nickname. Mayor of Dingdong City would definitely have fooled me.
10:26
5 Run Homer: It feels like we’re not talking enough about Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, and Greinke all hitting free agency this offseason. Four hall of famers, the four best of their generation, all hitting free agency in their mid-late 30s is cool as hell
10:26
Mike D.: Eduardo should replace sohn joltz
10:26
Dan Szymborski: I don’t get Smoltz. Who is the audience for Smoltz?
10:27
Kevin Goldstein: One of Dan’s stupid cats should replace John Smoltz.
10:27
Dan Szymborski: “People who don’t like baseball but are channel surfing and want to see what’s going on?”
10:28
mybloodyballantine: At least Arod seems to actually like baseball
10:28
Jon Becker: I’ll give ARod this, the noises he makes as a gigantic homer leaves the park are unparalleled and awesome
10:28
Dan Szymborski: Woomph
10:28
Two Dads Playing Catch: Joe Buck is the audience for Smoltz
10:29
5 Run Homer: Travis Shaw?? God this Red Sox roster is so weird. 2013 vibes
10:29
Morbo: I’m a dad? Want to play catch?
10:29
Jsolid: Empty chair > Smoltz
10:29
Jon Becker: Is Clint Eastwood doing the games now?
10:29
Andy: Loaisiga done as a potential starter? His slider is pretty nasty at 87
10:29
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to move him back when he’s been rocking like this
10:29
Camden: With how velocity is increasing on pitches across the board, do you think we will see more guys try to dial back their off-speeds more? (Dick Mound with his beautiful 69-mph CB)
10:29
Kevin Goldstein: Not really. The data is pretty clear that high-velo breakers are perform very very well. At times velo is as important as actual break.
10:30
mybloodyballantine: I kind of…don’t mind Buck? He’s got a pleasant voice, decent sense of humor, and seems content to let the game play out
10:30
Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I also don’t hate the guy. He’s a 50.
10:30
LFC Mike: What does the neural network think of John Smoltz and what should he be doing instead of being a cranky baseball announcer?
10:30
Dan Szymborski: Hang on!
10:31
Kevin Goldstein:
We’re doing this tomorrow for the LAD/STL game. Will you be joining us?
Of course (76.4% | 133 votes)
Good lord no (6.8% | 12 votes)
I’m not really here NOW (16.6% | 29 votes)
Total Votes: 174
10:32
Jon Becker: Here comes Houck for the Red Sox, maybe have him finish the order and then go to Whitlock for Rizzo and so on?
10:32
Jon Becker: 53 pitches three days ago for Houck, so not sure how many pitches he’s good for today
10:33
Dan Szymborski:
10:33
Bo: I was a Buck hater but he’s gotten much better at baseball in the last decade. And McCarver was always the real problem with that booth anyway.
10:33
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a Buck hater.
10:33
Dan Szymborski: I’m a Buck-meh’er
10:33
Matt: Just joined the chat, but can we step back to the Odor PH? Why? He should have hit for Higgy in the prior inning, if anything. You take away a good glove switch hitter with a similar AVG hoping that a high K guy makes contact with a guy that is mowing down the Yankees hitters? And then, on top of that, you don’t put Wade in at SS, you move the injured guy over?? WTF?
10:34
Kevin Goldstein: I like the way you are thinking, Jon.
10:34
Jon Becker: I would try to avoid Wade stepping in the batter’s box and you’re burning his ability to PR if needed by putting him in the batting order now
10:34
Kevin Goldstein: I like the way you are thinking again, Jon.
10:35
Divcoman: Is there something wrong with the WE graph? I can’t get it to move past the 5th inning.
10:35
Kevin Goldstein: Tech folks are on this.
10:35
Jon Becker: In the meantime, the WE is whatever you want it to be
10:35
Bill: Chris Sale really is a baseball playing alien.
10:36
Jimmy: Does Tanner Houck start the season in the rotation next year?
10:36
Kevin Goldstein: I’m a big fan of if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.
10:37
Jon Becker: He’s an ideal sixth starter and if he has to make a few 18-batter starts I’m game for that, but I wouldn’t pencil him in for 30+. Probably best as a ~100 inning flex guy
10:38
Another Kevin: I honestly didn’t realize baseball broadcasts could be this delightful. This is fantastic.
10:38
LFC Mike: I would have thought GM for a Skyline Chili shop would be Smoltz gold.
10:38
Kevin Goldstein: CINCINNATI CHILI IS WONDERFUL.
10:38
SammySosasCork: Nooooo, you don’t really believe that KG. Houck can be a pretty good starter
10:38
Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I remember them saying that about Daniel Bard heading into 2012….
10:39
Bill: Does Semien get a top tier FA contract? Despite being one of the most valuable players in 2019 and 2021, I feel like I’m not hearing about a huge contract for him. Is he going to be a steal again?
10:39
Jon Becker: Oh he’ll get PAID. Just a little under-discussed because he’s not considered to be in that SS class and he’s a bit older
10:39
Lzfreak: Is this Gardner’s last game?
10:40
Dan Szymborski: I think he comes back for at least a brief 2022
10:40
Druidiful: Is Kevin just saying that about chili to trigger Dan?
10:40
Derek: It’s cool that they do these Statcast broadcasts, but really I think most of the reason it works so well is just Jason Benetti. He’s truly an S-Tier broadcaster
10:40
Kevin Goldstein: NO QUESTION. He keeps the whole thing very organized.
10:40
Kevin Goldstein: No, I’m not trolling Dan. I love the stuff. I make it myself sometimes.
10:40
Jon Becker: Really an ideal three-man broadcast: an experienced guy to direct traffic, someone who knows the stats better than basically anyone, and an incredibly sharp ex-player
10:41
Two Dads Playing Catch: odds that Correa gets 300M?
10:41
Kevin Goldstein: Very low. Think he gets past 200 though.
10:42
PJ: Top 3 October home parks?
10:42
Kevin Goldstein: I’ve been in Yankee Stadium for several playoff games and there’s really nothing like it.
10:44
RJ: 2008 WS Tropicana Field vs Phillies was electric. Still believe the Trop is super underrated, just in the worst location possible.
10:44
Down Under: Buxton staying with the Twins this offseason?
10:44
Dan Szymborski: I think they trade him
10:44
Grand Admiral Braun: With another 5-win or so season in 2022, does Judge get $250M as a FA?
10:44
Dan Szymborski: No
10:44
Kevin Goldstein:
Cincinnati Chili is . . .
Wonderful (34.2% | 13 votes)
Fantastic (23.6% | 9 votes)
Terrific (42.1% | 16 votes)
Total Votes: 38
10:45
Dan Szymborski: THIS ELECTION IS FIXED
10:45
Bill: If you’re Cora, what is your plan for the last six outs? Taylor then Whitlock? Try and get a bit more out of Houck?
10:45
Kevin Goldstein: I mean, polls don’t lie. It certainly seems that everyone likes the stuff on SOME level.
10:45
Jon Becker: I’m not overthinking it and sticking with Houck
10:45
Kevin Goldstein: I’m with Jon.
10:45
Marlin Child: What would be more jarring, Gardner on Boston or Houston?
10:45
Kevin Goldstein: Gotta go Boston.
10:45
Dan Szymborski:
10:45
Jon Becker: Whichever one he grows the longest beard for
10:46
Dan Szymborski: I want to see a trend of ex-Yankees going full ZZ Top
10:46
Bo: STOP THE COUNT
10:47
josh: KG cant believe you lived/worked in two of the best food cities in the country and like wet meat noodles that much
10:47
Jon Becker: That’s not fair to Cincinnati chili! It’s wet meat noodles WITH TOO MUCH CINNAMON
10:47
Ian Swirka: Is Cincinnati chili more chili than turkey bacon is bacon?
10:47
Dan Szymborski: No
10:47
Ian Swirka: Thanks for adding “terrific” as an option. Really been trying to up my usage.
10:47
Kevin Goldstein: We watch a lot of 70s TV and it’s used all the time and needs to rebound.
10:47
Dan Szymborski: I swear, I didn’t even start any of the chili discussions this time. I just attract them.
10:47
Hugh Duffy: Cincinnati Chili is terrific. It begets terror.
10:47
Kevin Goldstein: You guys sure are conservative when it comes to liking new foods.
10:47
Two Dads Playing Catch: Do you even like chili Dan
10:48
Dan Szymborski: Steak. Chili peppers. Seasoning. Masa harina. Water. That’s all.
10:48
Guest: This has been brutal to watch as a Yankees fan. They are showing all the flaws they’ve had all season.
10:48
Kevin Goldstein: They won 92 games as a highly flawed team, it’s not like they’re BAD or something.
10:49
LFC Mike: If you put Cincinnati chili between two pieces of unhinged bread ( key being unhinged) you have????
10:49
Jon Becker: A slop sando
10:49
5 Run Homer: I know I follow too many baseball writers on Twitter when I know exactly how bad the wifi at Fenway is
10:49
Kevin Goldstein: Once the game hits the three-hour mark, they’ll move on to complaining about that.
10:49
Lzfreak: What could the Twins actually get for Buxton? His value is so volatile
10:50
Dan Szymborski: The upside is just so tantalizing that someone will pay, I think
10:50
SucramRenrut: Can we unsubscribe from Chili content and still get baseball? Is there an extra membership level for that?
10:50
Kevin Goldstein: But the volatility will definitely reduce the offers.
10:50
Dan Szymborski: Naturally!
10:50
Dan Szymborski: But the offers will be real.
10:50
Two Dads Playing Catch: I really wanted to see Matt Brash down the stretch for the Mariners, wonder why they never used him. Do you think they may have seen something in his bullpens they didn’t like?
10:51
Jon Becker: They just didn’t play any blowouts and they weren’t going to throw him into the fire like that
10:51
Matt: Does it make sense for the Angels to spend money on re-signing Raisel Iglesias or should that money be directed towards starting pitching?
10:51
Kevin Goldstein: I think it makes a lot of sense to pay a ton for a closer when you think you are going to have a lot of games to close.
10:51
Dan Szymborski: BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF + WAR .270 .314 .550 89 307 52 83 22 2 20 51 16 85 4 12 2 1 1 127 3.1
10:51
Dan Szymborski: someone’s gonna think “but what IF” we could get 450 or 500 PA?
10:52
Dan Szymborski: See, we’r emissing A-Rod fun!
10:52
Travis: KG- you ever stay at the Marriott Icon downtown Houston? My favorite hotel in the league with a great scout rate.
Alex Rodriguez just told the Yankees and Red Sox not to bother being smart just “just keep to your superpowers, which is tremendous resources.”
6 Oct 2021
10:52
Kevin Goldstein: Not once. Astros were pretty cheap on hotels, but I often got a killer rate at the JW Marriott four blocks away, which is a GREAT hotel.
10:53
Kevin Goldstein: Loaisiga has GREAT stuff, but man has he been erratic tonight.
10:54
J: Kevin why Correa a better fit for NYY over say Seager?
10:54
Kevin Goldstein: Much better defender.
10:56
Travis: Do you think Correa’s defensive metrics are right on, or is he even better than that? I’m also skeptical of defensive metrics, but can’t really argue his this year
10:56
Kevin Goldstein: I still find defensive metrics highly flawed.
10:56
Guest: Would you have rather Moncada, Jimenez, and Robert or Guerrero, Bichette, and Biggio?
10:56
Kevin Goldstein: hmmmmm
10:57
Jon Becker: Biggio is almost a throw-in to me, I’m taking the White Sox guys
10:57
Kevin Goldstein:
Would you rather have . . .
Moncada, Jimenez, Robert (39.0% | 64 votes)
Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio (51.2% | 84 votes)
Schwindel, Ortega, Wisdom (9.7% | 16 votes)
Total Votes: 164
10:58
Kwah: anti-capitalists Giancarlo Stanton
{handshake emoji}
repeatedly failing to defeat the Green Monster
10:59
Guest: weren’t we in the 6th inning like an hour ago?
10:59
Guest: Can we get Clay Holmes and Tony Watson on the same team at some point? That would be a great relief duo for obvious reasons.
11:01
Kevin Goldstein: I just spent 118 seconds looking for my iPad, which I then realized I was streaming the game on.
11:02
Jon Becker: Verdugo out at second but nobody in this joint cares!
11:02
Kevin Goldstein: Oh boy. This one is getting ugly.
11:02
Guest: Thanks for coming out, Yanks
11:02
Kevin Goldstein: That was a specific go to 2nd to get the run home, no?
11:02
skinnyjew: do the cards have a chance tomorrow?
11:02
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 1-in-3. 1-in-3 is a damn good chance!
11:02
Jon Becker: The Orioles would have a chance tomorrow
11:02
Kevin Goldstein: Yes. Every team has a good chance to win any single game.
11:03
Dan Szymborski: O’s are way more likely to beat the Dodgers in any single game than Barry Bonds ever was to hit a HR in any single plate appearance
11:04
Kevin Goldstein:
Is this one over?
Absolutely (28.5% | 46 votes)
Probably (58.3% | 94 votes)
50/50 (1.8% | 3 votes)
Still could get close (6.8% | 11 votes)
Yankees are gonna win! (4.3% | 7 votes)
Total Votes: 161
11:04
Andy (a different one): Have to get a kid to daycare at 6:30AM tomorrow. When am I allowed to turn off this game and go to bed?
11:04
Kevin Goldstein: ET? I think you can stick around…..
11:05
5 Run Homer: Hansel Robles..?
11:05
Jon Becker: We’ve sorta reached the “eh why not” stage with a five-run lead. Gotta at least sorta think forward to Thursday now, though it’s a very tough balance. I’d want Houck to be available though
11:05
Jon Becker: One pitch, one Robles point!!!
11:06
Jon Becker: Also worth noting Robles was nails in September/October, no runs in 12.2 innings
11:06
Kevin Goldstein: ET? You don’t need THAT much sleep.
11:07
Bill: Hansel. So hot right now. He can be a fireman in the Goose Gossage sense, or the Ray Bradbury Fahrenheit 451 sense and just burn it all down, and you just get no warning whatsoever who you’re getting.
11:07
Marlin Child: Hansel Robles has the worst facial hair in MLB, sorry not sorry
11:07
Kevin Goldstein: Man, you should have seen players in the 90s….
11:07
Lzfreak: I hope there’s a Gretel Robles
11:09
Guest: So do the Yankees bring back Rizzo after this year?
11:09
Dan Szymborski: I think he was pure rental.
11:09
Kevin Goldstein: I would hope they could do better.
11:10
Jon Becker: The domino effect of signing an actual SS would shift LeMahieu to 1B, if Rizzo was their best infield signing they missed out on a lot in the offseason
11:10
Kevin Goldstein: Why not DJLM to 2B?
11:11
Jon Becker: I was thinking Torres to 2B with Urshela sticking at 3B, but there could be another move with one of those two for sure
11:11
Guest: Will Luke Voit be playing for the Yankees next year?
11:11
Jon Becker: In a similar vein; I say no
11:11
Marlin Child: And Gleyber Torres to where?
11:11
Kevin Goldstein: Trade him.
11:12
Jon Becker: Not to get too into the postmortem with three outs left, but this is a VERY consequential offseason for the Yankees no matter what happens here. Great top of the roster as always but the depth just didn’t show up often enough
11:13
Kevin Goldstein: Without question one of the most interesting off-seasons to come (if we have an off-season).
11:14
The 6ix: No free agents get signed until the CBA is settled right?
11:14
Kevin Goldstein: You can. CBA doesn’t expire until 12/1.
11:15
Phil: Speaking of offseason, what’s the most efficient way for the Red Sox to improve their defense, ideally without getting rid of their best hitters?
11:15
Jon Becker: Having Hernández stick to one position (he’s good at both 2B and CF, but pick one) helps, and then filling the other with a good defender at that position, seems easiest
11:15
Jon: What are the chances that Freeman actually becomes a free agent? I’m surprised Atlanta has not locked him in yet
11:15
Kevin Goldstein: Left side defense will still be . . . not ideal, but they get some much offense from those two.
11:15
Dan Szymborski: 50/50 I think
11:15
Kevin Goldstein: I’ll take the over on Freeman staying in ATL
11:16
Jon Becker: Yeah, I just can’t see him anywhere else, and ATL is as aggressive as anyone as locking guys up before they become FA (maybe in his case it’s soon after)
11:17
Marlin Child: Won’t be too long until Xander goes to 3b and Devers to 1b, right?
11:17
Jon Becker: I would’ve agreed with this before Dalbec started mashing but with him around and JD presumably staying, it’ll wait until 2023 earliest
11:17
Dan Szymborski: Oh 50/50 is just on him becoming a FA
11:17
Dan Szymborski: I expect that most of the times he becomes a FA, he quickly re-signs with Braves
11:18
Jon Becker: Only a couple plays for Odor but he sure does have the arm for 3B, huh?
11:18
Pat: Powerful insight from the booth: “I loved the Anthony Rizzo pickup because he’s a baseball player.”
11:18
Jon Becker: #technicallythetruth
11:19
Dan Szymborski: Meanwhile, Rockies pick up a foosball player.
11:19
Bill: Kitchen Aid mixer ad for me on the statcast broadcast (YouTube TV). Going for the KLaw cooking/SABR demographic?
11:19
Kevin Goldstein: A MUST HAVE.
11:21
Is it just me: seems like anyone with a brain would look at the Yankees lineup and see high strikeout hitters galore and think, hey, maybe Joey Gallo isn’t a great fit. Looking at this roster and tonight’s lineup, I’m not sure how you’re fine with the team cashman assembled and the moves he made
11:21
Kevin Goldstein: They were desperate for lefty power and got the best lefty power in the game….
11:21
Jon Becker: The Rays led MLB in strikeout rate and it was way, way less of a narrative for them than it was for the Yankees
11:22
Marlin Child: Won’t lie I spent a solid minute trying to figure out if Jon Gray was some pro foosball player and I missed it
11:22
Jon Becker: One of the more Stantonian homers possible there
11:22
Jon Becker: 109.5, 343 feet
11:23
Two Dads Playing Catch: Dylan Cease was a lot of fun to watch this season, I’m really happy for him. What he did this season is probably like 90th percentile outcome for him, right?
11:24
Dan Szymborski: Hey, I took Cease in my breakout piece!
11:25
Jon Becker: If you had the game time at under 3.5 hours, what are tomorrow’s lottery numbers?
11:25
Kevin Goldstein: Whee! Thanks everyone for joining us! See you tomorrow for Cardinals/Dodgers!
11:25
Dan Szymborski: And that is that.
11:25
Jon Becker: Thanks everyone for joining us!!!
11:25
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming out everyone! And special congrats to Jon to surviving his first FanGraphs chat.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
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ishihara
3 years ago
Watching from work (shhhhhhh!). Kinda worried that the Sox haven’t taken full advantage of Cole’s iffy start. Can see the Yankees hanging in with that bullpen, hoping to get into the Boston bullpen…
Dan Szymborski: G’evening!
Watching from work (shhhhhhh!). Kinda worried that the Sox haven’t taken full advantage of Cole’s iffy start. Can see the Yankees hanging in with that bullpen, hoping to get into the Boston bullpen…