FanGraphs After Dark – 8/11/15

by Paul Swydan

August 11, 2015

5:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everyody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to talk some baseball. Until then, I’m going to go eat this tub of sugar cookies I bought for my son’s playdate today that he and his friends decided they didn’t like. See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Hey

9:02	Comment From Foz Gardner or Eaton rest of the way?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Gardner, a little more history of producing

9:04	Paul Swydan: Pretty close to dead even: http://www.fangraphs.com/pr… But I agree with Jeff.

9:04	Comment From Jordan Is Grichuk’s high babip because of his ability to hit line drives? Is he the biggest steal in a trade in the last five years?

9:06	Paul Swydan: As Bradley discussed in his piece today at THT, those two don’t really go together like we think they do. And …. that’s a tough one. Not yet.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: He does does hit the ball with authority and has some speed, but even Mike Trout doesn’t put up .390 babips. It will some down as the season goes on and as the league figures him out.

9:07	Comment From "Max"ed Out Bro THT?

9:07	Comment From JV Who is the better keeper? Huston Street for $4 or Derek Norris for $1 in a league that starts 2 catchers and uses OBP?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: The Hardball Times

9:08	Paul Swydan: Gotta say Norris.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on league depth. If 15 or more or league only, I may take Street with Saves scarce.

9:09	Comment From Casey “decided” they didn’t like?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, kids decide they like and don’t like certain foods pretty much on a dime. Or, at least mine do.

9:10	Comment From JV Do you see Arodys Vizcaino developing into a middle tier closer for Atlanta?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Not until he cuts down on the walks.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but as Paul said, the walks are an issue

9:11	Comment From Minty I understand that the start of the season was unreal and he’s only a rookie, but do I hold or sell Joc in a dynasty?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Hold.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Hold, the time to sell was a couple months ago.

9:13	Comment From Fangraphs Fan Just sayin; I completely dislike the new daily projections on the player pages. It is pointless. Hope you guys are making a good penny off of it at least.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Thank you for the feedback. I’m sure you understand that us doing all that we can to earn money without propping up a paywall is in everyone’s best interests.

9:14	Comment From Yefferson 12 team, 5 keeper league. No penalty. My two locks are Trout and McCutch with Puig, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber to choose from for the last three slots. Help me out?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: It isn’t for some people who play daily fantasy

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Scherzer, Puig and Betts.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Max, Mookie and Corey? That’s a tough one. Normally I’d say take the three hitters, but you don’t need four outfielders, and Mattingly’s treatment of Puig and Springer’s injuries worry me.

9:16	Comment From Nolan Stroman coming back: good idea or bad idea?

9:16	Paul Swydan: The best idea.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Good IMO, the team (and I) like to know if he is healthy enough to throw at his previous level.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Teams aren’t likely to shut a player down mid-recovery.

9:18	Comment From Rick The Reds have talked about 2017 as a season to seriously compete again. Is that realistic, and if so, will their main competition in the division be the Cubs, the Cards, or the Pirates?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, maybe with all three teams being in contention with the Brewers looking to rebuild over the same time frame.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Yeah, with Melvin leaving now, the Brewers are up in the air as well.

9:20	Comment From VanExcellent If you were Andrew Friedman and prior to the deadline the Mariners offered you King Felix straight up for Urias, how hard would you have thought about it?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Not hard at all. You take Felix.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Say yes immediately.

9:20	Comment From Stephen Do you wish it was a tub of any other cookie? Or are sugar cookies pretty awesome in your book?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Sugar cookies are outstanding.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Really, I am not a fan of them.

9:22	Comment From Rick What do the Athletics do this off-season? Seems like the bullpen and rotation could both use some work, and is there any chance they could move Billy Butler (+cash) to someone else?

9:23	Paul Swydan: They just need to find a way to hit better, but that seems like it’ll take some doing. We’ll see.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: The A’s are in that inbetween state on reloading or complete rebuild. I think they will bring in a few players to make a run. No one is taking Butler.

9:24	Comment From "Max"ed Out Bro The Rays rotation is going to be stacked by the end of 2016. They’ll have Archer, Odorizzi, Snell, Honeywell, Moore, AND Cobb. Long-term, would you prefer the Mets or Rays’ rotation?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Probably the Mets, just because A) they’re all in the majors now and B) I have no faith in Moore.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Mets by quite a bit. Moore is useless, with little chance of being his former self, Snell has never pitched in the bigs.

9:27	Comment From Stephen Or to further complicate things, would you keep Pederson/Puig over Keuchel?

9:27	Paul Swydan: There was a first question about Pederson/Puig. No matter the answer, yes I probably would keep them over Keuchel.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Puig …. Pederson, Keuchel

9:28	Comment From owensurett35 How high is Jung Ho Kang’s ceiling?

9:29	Paul Swydan: What he’s doing right now is probably his ceiling. He’s been unconscious for two months. Perhaps he could do this for a full season, but it’d be hard to be better than he is right now.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Looking over him, I am really not sure. Top five SS

9:30	Comment From Speaking of sugar cookies… Remember when we talked about chocolate chip / oatmeal raisin and baseball cookie analogies? I’m shocked the kids didn’t like the cookies — sugar cookies tend to have a highish floor, in my experience.

9:31	Paul Swydan: A) I do remember. B) Well, my son told me he only liked them with frosting like his mom usually gets him.

9:32	Comment From Roger Which will make the post-season sooner: D-Backs or Tigers?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I’m going to surprise and say D-Backs. They haven’t been that bad this season. And the Tigers bad contracts are only going to get worse.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Tigers, basically because the AL Central will be weaker

9:33	Comment From Pete Are the Dodgers mismanaging Puig? If so, what are they doing wrong?

9:34	Paul Swydan: I don’t have as good a bead on it this summer as I did last summer, but the general MO with their treatment of him seems like a guy they are just trying to control rather than embrace. That’s probably the wrong way to be. Not every player is the same.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: The Dodgers have too many players to keep happy with playing time. Puig, IMO, should be playing every day

9:35	Comment From Alex Thoughts on Roughed Odor? 2016 projections?

9:36

Paul Swydan: I’m bullish. The projections would essentially be what we thought for this year. He cratered those early on, but we had some pretty good optimism for him entering the season. If he gets there a year late there’s certainly no harm in that, and the Rangers should be applauded for not burying him in the minors.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: He is turning into a pretty good player. He will struggle a bit because of his age, but a top 5 2B is a possibility.

9:37	Comment From William Wallace How much do you think Correa is gonna go for next year in AL LABR? Our league does half LABR draft keeper values for fa pickups…someone is gonna go wild.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Sorry, I really don’t follow LABR or any other fantasy league that I’m not in.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: $35-45. He will be a top 10 player in AL-only. I expect him to be a 2nd rounder in mixed leagues.

9:39	Comment From My Questions from 2012, the last time I was in one of these chats Paul, you a fan of Danny Brown’s latest track?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Haven’t heard yet. Will check it out.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Oh, seeing the name of the questioner. Maybe I have nothing to check out.

9:39	Comment From Sgt. Pepper Think Donaldson wins the MVP if the Jays make it and LA doesn’t?

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t, simply because I think a lot of the credit will go to Tulo and Price and Bautista and Encarnacion. They have a lot of high profile players, whereas Trout just has Pujols.

9:41	Comment From Nolan So where would you slot Kang in Dave’s trade value list at this point? Five years of control, a salary well below market value, 28 years old . . . can he crack the top 15?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see him sneak in next year in the late 20’s if he keeps up this production.

9:43	Paul Swydan: A month later, it seems odd that Kang didn’t make even an honorable mention. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… To answer your question, yes, I think top 15 is a possibility.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Like Jeff said though, mid-to-late 20s is more likely.

9:44	Comment From eric is samardjiza worth keeping in a keeper league? is he even worth keeping ROS?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on league size and keepers. I would not have a problem dropping him in 12 team leagues.

9:45	Paul Swydan: With the big drop in strikeout rate, I could see dumping him for this year, and I don’t think you could be faulted for dropping fim for next year either.

9:46	Comment From owensurett35 Do any of you guys play ottoneu? just wondering

9:46	Paul Swydan: Yes, I do. Pretty sure Jeff does as well.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I am in a league with several other FG authors.

9:47	Comment From merv throneberry Top pitching prospects not yet in the majors…Giolito, Urias and….? Or do you have different ideas?.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Tyler Glasnow is up there for sure.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Berrios

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Newcomb (Angels) will likely be a top 10 next season. really gaining traction.

9:48	Comment From "Max"ed Out Bro Would you trade away Shelby, Ventura, and Mike Montomgery for Mookie Betts

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yes, yes I would.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: yes … in a heart beat

9:49	Comment From Rick Which likely playoff-team is least well constructed for the playoffs, insofar as they lack elite starters and/or relievers who otherwise could pitch a disproportionate number of innings in the post-season?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Fitting that description? Of the current division leaders, I would say the Astros for sure, and the bullpen will be a problem for the Dodgers again. Though even if they had a good bullpen, Mattingly would probably mess it up anyway.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Any AL team has issues with starters. Maybe the Astros are set up ok

9:50	Comment From "Max"ed Out Bro Would you rather have Joe Ross or Yoan Moncada in a dynasty league? Even with having to wait 2 years for Moncada.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Probably Moncada.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Moncada, he could be special in the end.

9:51	Comment From Jerz 16 team OBP Dynasty. Need wins. Better trade target: Lance Lynn, Joe Ross, Taylor Jungmann or Jake Odo?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Lynn. Always just get the best pitcher. That the best pitcher in your group also happens to be on the best team out of that group is a happy coincidence.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Lynn ….. Ross, Odo ………….Jungmann

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: and he may continue to start all the way until the end.

9:52	Comment From Christian Assuming the Mariners want to give it one more try next year, how would you retool them?

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: They need more DH/1B/OF types, I am thinking they should sign 6-7 of them

9:53	Paul Swydan: Same problem as always – they need a better starting rotation.

9:54	Paul Swydan: They seem to always have a couple of guys who MIGHT be good, but who never really are.

9:54	Comment From eric with early positive feedback on the Hamels trade, and the phillies recent success, does Ruben Amaro actually keep his job after the season? please say no

9:55

Paul Swydan: It would seem odd that they would bring in a new executive over him and then not fire him, but stranger things have happened, and he has rolled with the punches as well as he possibly could have. Let’s not forget that he works for his owner. Maybe the Phils’ ownership owns a bigger hand in not letting Amaro sell before now.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: He could. He should have been fired years ago and with the Phillies keeping him around, he has the chance of staying.

9:56	Comment From lorna doone Cubs better future than Mets?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. Always bet on the hitters.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs, I would rather have hitters who probably won’t get TJS

9:58	Comment From Nolan Are the Royals actually going to get surplus value out of Morales and Volquez? Alex Rios notwithstanding, their off-season actually looks pretty decent now.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: It was pretty good. Their inability to dump Guthrie is the biggest drag.

9:59	Paul Swydan: It does indeed. Things have clicked for them in a similar way to the 2013 Red Sox. Not well regarded at the time of signings, but it mostly worked out. The trick will be not falling in love with these guys. The Red Sox failed in this regard.

9:59	Comment From VanExcellent How much faith do you have in Corey Seager sticking at SS? Dodgers seem to be fairly confident despite a lot of analysts not being so sure.