FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 10/18/16

by Paul Swydan

October 18, 2016

9:05	Paul Swydan: Hi everyone! So sorry I lost track of time!

9:06	Suzanne2: Can you make a Jays fan feel better about the team’s future?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Well, yeah, what’s wrong with the team’s future? They have a good front office, and good players under contract for the future. The whole rotation comes back intact, and low-salaried players like Devon Travis and Roberto Osuna are still there. They still have good bones.

9:07	adam: in the parallel universe that this series goes 7 games, would you start andrew miller in game 7?

9:08	Paul Swydan: No, I want to keep him for higher leverage situations. You start him, and he can only go 2-3 innings, which means you’re really sweating the last 6-7 innings.

9:08	Pete: What would you do if you were Mike Hazen? Blow up the roster and do a total rebuild or try to do some tweaks and keep trying with the same core?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I would blow it up for sure. If he really has autonomy, then he has the authority to come in and do it right. The best they’re going to do over the next 2-3 years is tread water and maybe float into a wild card spot.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Given the resources the Dodgers and Giants have, and the bushel full of prospects the Rockies are graduating, the Dbacks are not in a division where they can just rebuild this on the fly and be confident in their chances.

9:10	JJP: Is Urias’ pickoff move a balk?

9:10	Paul Swydan: No, it’s actually two balks, as someone pointed out on Twitter the other day. I forget who. It might have been Jacob Pomrenke.

9:10

Sale trade: A pretty light proposed package for a Sox – Sox Sale deal seems to come up in most chats. My personal assumption is that the White Sox will ask for Moncada and Benintendi, the Red Sox will correctly decline, and the White Sox will refuse to budge and keep Sale. But let’s say they were willing to budge – presumably it’d be one of the guys above and 2 more pieces, something like Devers and Kopech?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yeah, it would need to be Benintendi/Moncada, plus Devers and then someone like Kopech (who has big velo but might end up being a dime a dozen guy, who knows). I can’t see the Sox agreeing to that, and I certainly wouldn’t want them to.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Benintendi/Bradley/Betts has the chance to be the best Sox outfield of all-time.

9:12	Reliever FA: Given the playoffs are (again) highlighting the value of elite RPs, and the relatively light FA market outside of the premium RPs, where do you see Chapman, Jansen, and Melancon as most likely to end up? Do LA, NY, CHC, and SF seem like the top bets?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I can’t really see Jansen leaving. I think SF is a good bet to land Melancon if Washington doesn’t want to pony up. As for Chapman, I don’t know, I hope he gets deported back to Cuba.

9:12	Lucie: With the Tigers announcing cutting payroll this off season, what are the chance they move Miggy or Verlander? How moveable are those contracts right now Verlanders is easier then Miggy no?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Both are movable contracts if they decide they want to move them, but I doubt the sincerity of that report, since it flies directly in the face of the well-established notion that Ilitch wants a title before he passes.

9:14	CarrotJuice: ZiPs and 538 both consider the Cubs the favorites against the Dodgers coming into tonights game, but Fangraphs does not. Any idea why?

9:15

Paul Swydan: The FanGraphs projections often differ from other projection systems because we try to gauge how playing time is shaking out and weight things based on that. As such, we probably have more Kershaw/Hill/Jansen in our depth charts right now than other people. Same with Miller/Allen. Can’t say for sure, obviously, as I haven’t checked ZiPS and 538, but that’s my guess?

9:15	Dayton Moore Talking Head: How much would Eric Hosmer get if he was a free agent this year?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I’m sure there’d be a stupid team that would give him $15 M per for 4-5 seasons

9:16	Paul Swydan: Don’t forget, the game is swimming in cash.

9:16	Terry Francona: If we can finish off these damn Blue Jays and face the Cubs in the World Series, what are the keys to getting by their ridiculous rotation?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Not sure, it’s pretty ridiculous.

9:16	Russell: Picking against a team down 0-3 makes me a hater?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Sorry Russell, was just trying to stir the pot.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Also, stop being such a hater.

9:17

Infrinjinsin: When one asks Dave Cameron about lineup protection, he says it doesn’t exist because *statistics* *mathematics* *analysis*. But that’s an argument that it SHOULDN’T exist. Wouldn’t one need to poll a sample of mlb pitchers & catchers about whether they alter approach based on man on deck to argue it DOESN’T exist? A job for Eno maybe?

9:18

Paul Swydan: No, that’s an argument that there is no statistical evidence that it exists, so I don’t think shouldn’t is the right word. There may definitely be a change in approach in some situations, but those come out in the wash because so many times the “protected” player will come up without runners on base.

9:18	D: in retrospect, you think the dodgers are better off with how they did on international signing in 2015-2016 (yadier alvarez, yusniel Diaz, omar estevez, starling heredia etc.) or would have been better just getting Moncada like they almost did?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Sorry, but it’s way too early to know that.

9:18

CapnZippers: Dave released his article about Mike Hazen’s first decisions today. Got me thinking about Goldschmidt. Assuming the Mets non-tendered Duda and tried to make a run, what would a Goldy trade look like? Would Dominic Smith and some combo of Nimmo, Desmond Lindsay, Becerra get it done? Or would Rosario be necessary?

9:19	Paul Swydan: That seems light to me.

9:19	Paul Swydan: If the Dbacks put Goldschmidt on the market, they’re going to set off a bidding war, and Hazen isn’t stupid enough to take a bad deal.

9:19

ChatzMcGee: Too experimental or would someone try it: moving your ace to the bullpen for the whole postseason? Basically doing what the Giants did with Bumgarner in game 7 of the 2014 World Series but for the whole postseason; using your Kershaw like Andrew Miller. It’d probably only work for a team with a deep rotation mind you.

9:20	Paul Swydan: It probably wouldn’t be very smart to alter your ace’s prep schedule like that for what would probably be a marginal gain at best.

9:20	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Does Cleveland go to a bullpen game around the 3rd inning tomorrow?

9:20	Paul Swydan: The pen will be up early, that’s for sure.

9:20	Roger: Should the Cubs capitalize on Baez’s post season by trading him this winter?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Nope, I’d hang on to him.

9:20	Matt: Is there really a dumb enough team to sign a 1B only player whos never slugged above .470 with a career high of 360 OBP?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Definitely.

9:21	Paul Swydan: He was the All-Star Game MVP, and he has a World Series ring. That’ll be enough for some.

9:21	Roger: Which is stranger: missing playing time because you cut yourself on your drone, or missing playing time because you cut up your team’s jerseys? (Also, this season has been awesome!)

9:21	Paul Swydan: I….probably the jerseys. That was really bizarre.

9:21	stephan: I assume the discussion about Urias’s move being 2 balks noted that conclusion assumed umpires interpreted the rule differently than they have done for the last few decades?

9:22	Paul Swydan: It wasn’t really a discussion, just a tweet. But, it was interpreting the rule book, and not the umpires’ interpretation of the rule book, so your point is probably valid.

9:22	Rich Hill: Do I have a top-3 curveball in the game?

9:23	Paul Swydan: This year, it was 8th best. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=100&type=14&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

9:23	Roger: Where does Baez play in that case? Super utility until Zobrist gives up second base? Maybe SS eventually ?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Super utility until Zobrist gives up second base, which probably won’t be long.

9:24	Zmccoy: What are the chances the Dodgers hold on to Jansen? If not, who signs him?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I can’t see the Dodgers letting Jansen get away. They need him, and have plenty of money to retain him.

9:24	Erik the Red: Assuming starting a franchise from scratch, choose either Benintendi and Moncada or Donaldson.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Well, since Donaldson will be 31 next year, that’s not really that hard of a question. Benintendi/Moncada for sure.

9:25

Alex:

9:25	Paul Swydan: Hi Alex!

9:25	Eric: Elo-style ratings suck for baseball and FG’s playing time projection are more accurate for postseason than ZIPS

9:25	Paul Swydan: One person’s opinion. I don’t know enough about how Elo-style ratings are different from other projection systems to make that claim.

9:26	Merv Throneberry: I’m ready to ask another question about Chris Devenski.

9:26	Paul Swydan: OK, Merv, fire away.

9:26	Cheesecake recipe: Do you like the DH?

9:26	Paul Swydan: No. It was created as a marketing gimmick to get stars to sign in the AL, and that concern has long since passed. It should be retired.

9:26

Davy: Joe Buck mentioned Cederstrom’s only called one of Hill’s games before. 78 umps, 30 starts a year. Even for a veteran SP, odds are the ump calling any one game has seen you (from behind home plate) a couple times max. Do you think more familiarity would change the way balls and strikes are called?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Well, sure, but that’s not really feasible. It’s a big game, and when there’s 15 games a night, you need that many umps on hand.

9:27	Paul Swydan: And with expansion on the horizon, the demands aren’t going to lessen.

9:27	Davy: Are the lines of the batter’s box always so thin in LA? They look to be one inch thick, rather than the normal three like the baselines. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before. Just trying to tackle the important issues.

9:28	Paul Swydan: That’s interesting. I can’t say that I noticed that. Anyone else?

9:28

another bad dynasty manager: I know it’s water under the bridge now, but would you have used Kluber on short rest in a game the Indians didn’t need to win? IMO it was a rare blunder by Tito this post-season. Now they have to count on Tomlin being as successful throwing a ton of curveballs at the Jays as he did first time (per Fagerstrom).

9:28	Paul Swydan: I would have. Tito has managed the postseason like he wants to sweep each series, because he’s short-handed in his rotation, and I applaud that strategy.

9:29	Paul Swydan: If they had won today, Kluber would have had 5 days rest before Game 1 of the World Series. If it goes 6 or 7, Kluber has to pitch again and that puts them in a really bad position for the World Series. He chosen option A, and I think that’s perfectly defensible.

9:29	LJS: As a Cubs fan, I have a hard time with other Cubs fans who act like this team is actually secretly terrible every time something isn’t perfect. What to do?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Speaking from experience, it will be like that until you win it all, and then everyone will relax.

9:30	Only Padres Fan on the Internet: Are the Padres screwing up by not punting Preller and asking for a do over? Hazen would have looked awfully nice in a sand and navy windbreaker.

9:31

Paul Swydan: It depends on what they want their focus to be. If they’re focused on really crushing the international market for a few years and acquiring international players in trade (like say, Manuel Margot or Anderson Espinoza) then they’re fine with Preller at this stage. Once their focus shifts, he should absolutely be fired, but by that time he may have built up more trust in the front office. I guess we’ll see.

9:31	Tim: How many more games do you think Kershaw will pitch this series?

9:32	Paul Swydan: 1 start, and then we’ll see on a relief appearance. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers take this in 6, in which case he might not need a relief appearance.

9:32	Do the Mash, the Monster Mash: What is the fake prospect name that prospect writers use as a “in joke” to each other?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Uh, I have no idea. I’m not a prospect person!

9:32	ChatzMcGee: Batters who have faced Andrew Miller once and got a HR in that appearance: Yulieski Gurriel, Chris Owings, and… Dominic Brown! Weird, right? Also, Jermain Dye was 4 for 4 with a HR.

9:33	Paul Swydan: I mean, yeah, batter v pitcher matchup stats are always weird and not instructive.

9:33	The Gyorko Store Called: How do you fix the coming-off-the-base-for-a-millisecond slide problem with replay?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Teach my players to keep their hand/foot on the base.

9:33	The Gyorko Store Called: Assuming no problems in spring training, do you target Garrett Richards as an undervalued injury risk? Tanaka has not broken again despite similar circumstances.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yeah, definitely. If you can get him cheap, then you’re not worried if he breaks down again because you didn’t invest a lot in him.

9:34	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Congratulations to Mr. Zimmerman on winning the Nobel Prize for Literature

9:34	Paul Swydan: First Tout Wars, now a Nobel prize. It’s been a good year for Jeff!

9:34	Dayton Moore Talking Head: What would be the type of return if the Royals traded Wade Davis?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I assume they would get a couple of good prospects, assuming Davis is totally healthy.

9:35	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Cleveland made the right move not bringing in Miller or Allen down 1 in the 6th right? They could not expect either to go more than 1 inning today in light of yesterday or risk their availability for tomorrow right?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Probably. I wouldn’t have killed them for bringing them in though.

9:36	Holla: Are you drafting Tebow in dynasty for the karma?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I am going to at least make sure he gets added to the Ottoneu universe so that someone spends a roster spot on him. 🙂

9:36	E-40: Why are the San Francisco Bay Area sports teams so cursed?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Going to assume this is a poor attempt at humor, since San Francisco Bay Area sports teams are most definitely not cursed.

9:37	Holla: Osuna, Chapman, Jansen, or Diaz for #1 fantasy closer in 4 years?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I’ll take Jansen.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Dude’s a horse.

9:37	Ger-money: Does Price go into the HoF as a Ray, or Red Sock

9:38	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s going to end up winning the World Series on the Red Sox and not the Rays, so probably the Red Sox. Which is too bad. The Rays could use a Hall of Famer.

9:38	Ryan: Would you sign Chapman (off field issues), Jansen (dreaded QO compensation), or Melancon (not quite as good as the others)?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Jansen for sure.

9:38	Garibaldi: Do you believe choking in the playoffs is a real thing or SSS?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Oh baby, Yasmani Grandal.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Dodgers are a scant 15 outs away from taking a lead in this series.

9:40	Paul Swydan: As for choking, I believe in both – sometimes players fail under pressure, but given enough pressure opportunities, they’ll perform at a level similar to their established career levels.

9:40	Gload Will Explode: Grandal is good. Not a question.

9:40	Slider: Can you explain Francona’s decision to pitch Merritt game 5 instead of Clevenger? Clev was wasted on mop up duty today and Merritt seems more like a sacrificial lamb.

9:42	Paul Swydan: I would think it has a lot to do with the respective pitchers’ walk rates. The absolute last thing you want to do against the Blue Jays is walk hitters, because that turns the solo homers into multiple-run homers.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Also, Mike Clevenger had a 5.26 ERA / 4.86 FIP this year. I don’t think passing on him is a real difficult choice.

9:42	Russell: Do you think having a really solid defensive catcher gets underrated in the playoffs? There’s been a lot of them on championship teams in the last decade or so.

9:43	Paul Swydan: No, I think catcher defense has long been overrated because we didn’t have a great way of quantifying it.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I’d almost always choose the better hitter, especially these days when offense is at such a premium.

9:43	Zmccoy: What’s more surprising: Grandal’s homer tonight, or Montero’s in game 1?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Montero’s for sure. The last time Montero was a plus player was 2012.

9:44	Turrrrkkkeeeyyy: What do you think of Osuna’s pitch repertoire?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I think Osuna should have been a starter.

9:44	Brad: What are your expectations for benintendi and moncada next year for fantasy purposes? Thanks

9:45

Paul Swydan: I think Benintendi is the Opening Day left fielder and will get somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 PA, as he will lose some playing time to Chris Young. I think Moncada will be up after the Super 2 deadline passes, and will be the full-time starting third baseman by the end of the season, as Pablo Sandoval either is moved to first base/DH or is cut.

9:45	Brad: Would you stop being a Red Sox fan if Joe Maddon managed them?

9:45	Paul Swydan: No. I mean, I can’t stand John Farrell either, in case you haven’t noticed.

9:45	Van: As someone who works closely with baseball analytics, do you ever feel emotional about the game? I’d imagine it would be more difficult to see it as magical if you’re constantly looking at the statistics but I don’t know.

9:46

Paul Swydan: I still get emotional about awesome things, but much less so about bad losses and things like that. I’m able to put that behind me a lot quicker. To be honest though, I think that has just as much to do with being a dad and not being able to waste a weekend stewing about losses the way I did in 2003.

9:47	Noah: Why don’t you like Joe Madden?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Because he thinks he’s the smartest man alive and very clearly is not.

9:47	Paul Swydan: But the media CONSTANTLY treats him as such.

9:47	Magikarpet: What did you have for Thanksgiving dinner?

9:48

Paul Swydan: Oh, fun question. Turkey, obviously, and stuffing. But we usually also have mac and cheese, green beans, cranberry sauce, pineapple, pumpkin pie, and biscuits. Sometimes there is ham. It depends on who is doing the cooking these days, and where I am. That was the menu growing up when we had Thanksgiving at the same place every year though.

9:49	Paul Swydan: We also would have Kibbee, which is a Lebanese dish – we have it both raw and cooked – and meat and rice stuffed grape leaves, which are on the short list for the greatest dish in the history of the world.

9:49	Dank: Maddon is over rated. Contreras bat has to be in this lineup everyday.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m not a big fan of personal catchers.

9:50	Zmccoy: Who’s the best manager, in your opinion?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I don’t think any one manager is consistently better than the rest of them. Managers simply don’t have that much tangible effect on the game. They certainly have FAR less impact on the outcome than the coaches in basketball, football and hockey.

9:51	Russell: Now that we’ve some action, how long does Hill get to stay in?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I think they’ll probably let him get to 100 pitches. He’s only at 80. So he’s got at least one more inning.

9:52	Mad macks: Does the fact that Osuna actively wants to be reserved for the closer role mean anything? Should the Blue Jays attempt to develop him as a starter anyway?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I think it’s always a bad idea to let the inmates run the asylum. It’s a moot point now, but I would have given him a season as a starter.

9:52	Slider: How many games do you expect the ALCS to last? Tribe shouldn’t be favored in either of the next two games!

9:53	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 6.

9:53	Brandon Eckley: Do you ever get bored of baseball?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Oh sure, all the time. But it’s the thing in my life that is most consistently entertaining.

9:53	Rick: Do you find the Dodgers’ or the Indians’ resiliency in the face of starting rotation injury more impressive?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Both? I guess the Indians, if I have to choose. Kluber is good, but he’s no Kershaw. The Dodgers know they at least have Kershaw.

9:54	Rick: Re: baseball and boredom–baseball is the single most boring game to watch for long stretches at a time, until, suddenly, it isn’t; and then you’re on your edge of your seat with every pitch

9:55	Paul Swydan: It’s also the best sport to watch while you’re doing something, which helps alleviate the boredom. It’s hard to half-watch basketball, football or hockey, because the players are constantly in motion and it’s harder to understand the context of each play if you’re not paying attention.

9:55	Bobbi: What should the Blue Jays do with Osuna and Biagini? What will they probably do?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Nothing? I’m not sure I understand the question. Both are under contract for awhile.

9:55	Zmccoy: Where should Arrieta be drafted next year? Do you see command issues continuing?

9:56	Paul Swydan: His BB% this year is a lot closer to his career BB% than his 2015 performance was, so…

9:56	Lord above: How underrated is Nick Markakis?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Not at all underrated. He’s been worth 2 WAR or more only one time in the last six seasons.

9:57	Madrid, Spain: Did you play baseball? If so, how long?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I played through Babe Ruth league, which in my area was the league after Little League. So, until 14-15. I don’t remember exactly how old I was, but I stopped playing once I realized I couldn’t differentiate between a fastball and curveball. 🙂

9:58	Zmccoy: Who is your fantasy MVP for ’16 (taking where you drafted him into consideration)?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I only do auction drafts these days, but my fantasy MVPs in terms of cost consideration were drafting Mike Napoli ($3) and holding onto Jackie Bradley Jr. ($6). Both scored 800+ points for me in Ottoneu.