FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 10/18/17

9:37	Paul Swydan: Who will win the ALCS? Astros (22.6% \| 56 votes) Yankees (77.3% \| 191 votes) Total Votes: 247

9:37	Paul Swydan: Who will win the NLCS? Cubs (5.1% \| 12 votes) Dodgers (94.8% \| 223 votes) Total Votes: 235

9:37	Paul Swydan: Will the Dodgers sweep tonight? Yes (52.1% \| 124 votes) No (29.8% \| 71 votes) Maybe! (18.0% \| 43 votes) Total Votes: 238

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Mike: The single-season record for pitcher appearances is Mike Marshall with 106. That’s pretty impressive, but do you think Carl Edwards Jr. will break it in August or in September next year?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I don’t think that Toothpick Edwards’ appendages will stay together for that many appearances in such a short timespan.

9:02	Paul Swydan: But certainly it seems that Joe Maddon is gonna try!

9:02	Brian : So the next step for the Cubs is to find elite arms for the late innings right?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think that’s gotta go hand in hand with teaching Joe Maddon some lessons about recency bias and things of that nature, but he’s determined not take to take lessons from anyone, so not sure how that’ll go.

9:04	Paul Swydan: That was a weird catch by Almora to start the game tonight.

9:04	Brian : Can we appreciate the best Cub run any living person has ever seen? Don’t let recent results obscure the big picture. Relevant for foreseeable future

9:05	Paul Swydan: Yes. Three straight trips to the NLCS. They hadn’t made the postseason in three straight years since 1906-08.

9:05	Brian : I have all the young keepers and need to leave one off: Bregman, Rhys, Bellinger, Benintemdi, Devers. Machado is my 3b. Who is it?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Bregman

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: And Hi everyone. Sorry for the delay. I was changing out a light switch

9:07

Paul Swydan: Positionality would seem to dictate that you have to move either Bregman or Devers, unless Bregman qualifies at shortstop in your league. He played 30 games at SS, and started 21. That should be enough to get him to qualify there. In that case, the question becomes do you have room to play Devers at UTIL? If so, I’d get rid of Benintendi. If not, then get rid of Devers, I guess. But I wouldn’t be real happy about that.

9:07	Schilling and Pence: Yuli Gurriel performed nicely this year–solid late round value pick for me, and I’d do it again next year a few rounds earlier. He’s 33–do you think he holds steady/builds on his momentum and comfort level, or do you think he regresses?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think his regular season numbers were anything special, and I don’t think his playoff numbers this year will mean anything at all next year. I wouldn’t expect him to build on his numbers from this year. If anything, just to maintain them, which as you said, is a nice season.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I guess. I worry a bit about limited playing time with Houston’s deep roster

9:09	Doodus: How boned are the Yankees if they make it to the WS in seven?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Not at all? Most people didn’t expect the Yankees to even make the playoffs. They’ll be ecstatic to make the World Series no matter how many games it takes.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: They’ll be fine. Any other team would want to be in their cleats

9:10	Doodus: Is the “too much rest” argument BS? This is being made for the Dodgers by casual fans right now.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t say it’s BS necessarily, just that there’s no data to support that it is a proven detriment. Maybe it would be for the Dodgers, but nothing that has happened in the past proves that it will be.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: They have to have an excuse ready if the team loses.

9:11	Oddball Herrera: Given what you know about Fangraph’s readership, who are the people who voted that the Cubs would win…simply contrarians or Cubs superfans?

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Super fans and clicked the wrong button

9:13

Paul Swydan: The latter. Every team has its superfans, and much of our readership is filled with such fans. Hey, you’re talking to a guy who felt confident when the Red Sox trailed the Yankees 3-0, and the Rockies trailed the Padres by 2 runs in the 13th. I like fans who stick to their guns, even when statistically, they shouldn’t.

9:13	Someone: When the closest thing to an underdog is the Yankees, who do you root for?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Still not the Yankees

9:14	Paul Swydan: Well, it’d be nice if Carlos Beltran got a ring. I’d certainly like to see Dave Roberts get another ring. And if the Yankees win, then the Yankees win. Not like it’d be the first time, and I do like Brett Gardner.

9:14	Hannah Hochevar: What is happening to the Astros bats v New York?

9:15	Paul Swydan: That’s a great question. I think Dave is looking into this for tomorrow. I’m tempted to just say small-sample size, but I’ll admit I haven’t really dove in on it to be sure.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Who really knows for sure. Teams go through dry spells and the Astros are on one now.

9:16	Dave: Is Austin Barnes the starting catcher in LA next year? Do the Dodgers trade Grandal?

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I think LA keeps both. They can afford it and catchers get hurt all the time.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no and no. I think they stick with both catchers. If the Dodgers have proven anything the last couple of years, it’s that they are certainly a team that understands the value of depth.

9:17	Go Yankees!!!!: If the WS matchup ends up being NYY/LAD, what is the probability of the Yankees winning?

9:17	Paul Swydan: 44% ???

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: 40%

9:17	Go Yankees!!!!: When will 2018 ZIPS be ready?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: January I think. Expect Steamer sooner

9:19	Paul Swydan: Timeline will likely be the same as in previous years. I believe Carson and Dan pick up the thread sometime in December. They started in early December last year. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/category/2016-zips-projections/page/2/

9:20

Josh R: Is there somewhere on the site to find playoff stats? I am particularly wondering what the Dodgers pitchers HR/FB is. I know things have been going swimmingly for them but I feel like they have given up an insane amount of homers. Is it possible they have been dominant and unlucky at the same time?

9:20	Paul Swydan: There isn’t a comprehensive source that I am aware of, but you can see the individual games in our games/live scoreboard area.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: We have them. There is a playoff selector right above the dashboard

9:21	Paul Swydan: Jeff always knows more than I do.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure if it can be done by team

9:21	Nic: If yankees make world series and play LAD, there is no way they win right? Kershaw,Hill,Darvish,Wood is pretty much unbeatable, no?

9:21	Paul Swydan: No one is unbeatable. Come on.

9:22	Greg Bird: Will I be anywhere close to this good for the next several seasons (assuming I don’t get injured for the 17th time)

9:22	Paul Swydan: Oops. Didn’t wait for Jeff. Sorry Jeff!

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: No but you’ll be usable.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: No worries, I was still trying to find team playoff values

9:23	Paul Swydan: I do think Greg Bird will be this good. Very high on Greg Bird.

9:23	Texan: Sabbathia has been strong the past couiple of months, and when Tanaka is on he can dominate. Add Severino, and the Yankees suddenly have top starters to go with a great bullpen. I made a mistake when I said that their starters would sink them?

9:23	Paul Swydan: That Sonny Grat guy is OK too.

9:23	Paul Swydan: Gray

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: No way to know CC and Tanaka would turn it on in the season’s 7th month

9:25	Mike: How do we get Fox to stop with the live Kzone graphic that is literally obscuring the middle of the action on every pitch?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I like it, so there!

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Fox is in their own little world

9:26	Paul Swydan: Anything is better than TBS’ graphics.

9:26	dprat: My two dynasty stud pitchers are Paxton & Wood. Over/under on total IP from the pair in 2018?

9:26	Paul Swydan: 190?

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d go 280

9:27	mike: Would the yankees be favorites against the dodgers? With alot of money coming off the books who do you see the yankees possibly targeting this offseason?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Not favorites. Have they gone under the luxury tax? I don’t see a huge splash and they will be all in for Harper

9:29	Paul Swydan: Well, they’ll need someone to replace Pineda.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Let’s see how much Didi ends up costing them.

9:31	Arrieta: Any thoughts on whose uniform I’m wearing next time I make a MLB start?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Cardinals?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: My money is still on the Cubs

9:31	Paul Swydan: He seems like a Cardinal.

9:32

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Speaking of graphics, I know people here tend not to like the ESPN and FOX augmented reality strike zone, but the overlay where it shows “hot” and “cool” zones is nice, no? I might prefer if they used a stat besides batting average to make them, but it’s a lot less abstract and more easy to visualize than the static graphs I see in articles about hitters and their approach.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Those are fun. But I also like the normal overlays.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Contreras just went scoreboard hunting. Wow!

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d like Contact% or Exit Velocity

9:33	mike: With Girardis lack of trust in Betances what kind of return could the yankees get fpr him this winter

9:34	Paul Swydan: I would imagine they do something simple like trying to replenish the farm with a couple of A-ball prospects, although you gotta admit that Betances for Schwarber (or maybe Betances and a prospect) would be a fun challenge trade.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s light in the winter, much lighter. Value triples in-season

9:34	Paul Swydan: Hard to think of two guys in this postseason whose stock has dropped more sharply than Betances and Schwarber.

9:34	Janus: Who do you think is going to manage the Red Sox?

9:35	Paul Swydan: The beat writers all keep saying Alex Cora is the favorite. I hope they’re right.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I have a gut feeling it’s Asmus but hopefully not

9:36	Zack: 2018 too early to expect Justus Sheffield, right? BTW Cashman two days ago on WFAN said they expect Torres up next year when there’s a need.

9:36	Paul Swydan: Baez goes yard and it’s 2-0 Chicago. That one barely cleared the left-field foul pole.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Not IMO. If a pitcher is MLB use them. They could be broke the next week.

9:36	Paul Swydan: That was a nice piece of hitting. He hit that off the shoetops. Not much more Wood could do with that pitch.

9:36	Paul Swydan: As for Sheffield, he made 17 starts in Double-A this season.

9:37	Paul Swydan: The 17 starts only came out to 93 IP, or 5.4 IP/GS, so it’s not like he was a workhorse, but you could see him graduating to Triple-A next year and then if he’s doing well, to the majors by August or so.

9:38	Paul Swydan: He had a high walk rate at Double-A though. He’ll need to work on that.

9:38

Bruce: It seems to me the yankees do not need someone to replace Pineda. Right now they have severino, gray, montgomery signed for next year. CC seems like he very much wants to come back,so add him for next year. Then the question becomes whether tanaka opt out and comes back. If he does come back then thats 5 starters right there, and if he doesn’t, then Chance Adams is down in triple a ready for the call. Am i missing a reason they need to replace Pineda?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I mean, semantics I guess. Pineda, CC and Tanaka could all be free agents. They’ll need to have 2 of them back, or sign 2 different pitchers.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Because two of the guys listed will go on the DL. Every team needs to figure out their top 8 starters going into a season because 40% will go on the DL at some point

9:40	mike: the yankees have chance adams and domingo acevedo ready and pitching well at AAA do you think any of them will start next year in the rotation or be used as trade bait

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t honestly know enough about either, but my guess is that they’ll make them earn their way onto the roster.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Rotation. They may be better arms than the players they can get in trades

9:41	Texan: Ugh, Yankees are going to have serious spending money. Just checked and next year A-Rod ($27.5 m), CC ($24.4m) and Holliday ($13m) come off the books. They’ll probably look for starters….who are the top FAs?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.htm…

9:42	Paul Swydan: Ha. Was going for the same link.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: A lot of pitchers with options. Who is available really matters.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Hosmer, Moose, Cozart, Justin Upton, Lorenzo Cain, JD Martinez, Carlos Santana for hitters.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Arrieta, Cobb, Cueto (maybe), Darvish, Jaime Garcia, Tanaka (maybe), and of course, Ohtani, for pitchers.

9:44	Zack: Cashman has been adament that they won’t spend this winter, determined to reset luxury tax clock…I believe him this time

9:45	Paul Swydan: Yeah, could be. Could be that he’ll wait on Harper next winter. Time will tell.

9:45	Tommy: Is zips or steamer better in terms of single season predictive value?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: One sec …

9:46	Paul Swydan: They’re both very good. http://www.banishedtothepen.com/evaluating-the-2017-predictions-projec…

9:46	hscer: who gets right if harper and judge are both in ny and where does the other go

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Dammit, you won this time.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Harper. And Judge will go to left.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Harper’s not going to set a record for money earned in free agency just so he can switch positions.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Does it really matter? DH and 1B as long as they are in the lineup

9:47	Robert: What do you expect from Scooter Gennett next year?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Absolutely nothing.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: My hopes aren’t high

9:48	Nelly: Arrieta HOF. Book it

9:48	Paul Swydan: Well OK.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I want what Nelly has been smoking

9:49	Paul Swydan: He’s 32 next year and is sitting on just 21.4 career WAR. I’m gonna disagree, but I like the optimism.

9:49	Straight Cash(man): As a Yankees fan, I’d prefer Machado to Harper.. any chance the O’s blow it with Manny?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Not sure why you’d prefer the guy who’s already had a major knee operation, but hey, to each their own.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Now the O’s could blow it for sure.

9:50	Theo: Are you guys as down on how the Cubs have handled Schwarber as Dave seemed to be earlier today? Seemed to think it’s really hurt the team over the coming years.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yes, I agree with Dave.

9:51	Paul Swydan: We all know teams are guilty of falling in love with their own players.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure what to think and know I don’t know 10% of what is going on.

9:53	Nelly: Randy johnson. True talent ages well

9:53	Paul Swydan: At the same age, Johnson had 10 more WAR than Arrieta did. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=60,4153

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Completely different pitchers. Randy was so much better.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: (and do you have any of that “stuff” left?)

9:54	awy: how much does league strength matter in evaluating WS matchups?

9:54	Paul Swydan: To me, it doesn’t matter at all. Some may feel differently.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: None. I do think the AL as an advantage at times with a monster DH like Ortiz.

9:56	Pat: Can the Astros come back from this?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Yes. Absolutely.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: 30% chance

9:56	Slam: O/U Chris Taylor 3 war next year?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Over. I’ve dug a bit on him and like what I have found

9:57	Paul Swydan: You’ve got that set properly, I think. I’ll be optimistic and take the over.

9:57	Mike: “Record setting contract only to change positions for a Yankee star” you sure about that?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Well, I didn’t say Yankee. But yes, as long as he stays healthy, Bryce Harper will earn a record-setting contract in free agency.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s going to be nuts

9:58	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You’re telling me Austin Barnes won’t get traded with Scott Kazmir and Andrew Toles for Jackie Bradley Jr. and Blake Swihart?!

9:58	Paul Swydan: Sadly, no, but we’ll always have our Game 4 Live Blog thought experiment!

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:59	Mike: I meant as an Arod comparison