FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 1/10/17

by Paul Swydan

January 10, 2017

6:04	Paul Swydan: In what month will Jose Bautista sign? January (21.8% \| 40 votes) February (51.3% \| 94 votes) March (17.4% \| 32 votes) April (2.1% \| 4 votes) May (0% \| 0 votes) June (0.5% \| 1 vote) Never? (6.5% \| 12 votes) Total Votes: 183

6:05

Paul Swydan:

What is your favorite season of “Archer” ???

Season 1 (34.0% | 31 votes)

Season 2 (16.4% | 15 votes)

Season 3 (16.4% | 15 votes)

Season 4 (9.8% | 9 votes)

Season 5 (Archer Vice) (14.2% | 13 votes)

Season 6 (4.3% | 4 votes)

Season 7 (Figgis Agency) (4.3% | 4 votes)

Total Votes: 91

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Hank: Do you see the Angels signing a reliever? If so who? A low cost veteran?Setup Guy?Lefty?

9:02	Paul Swydan: They probably need to sign one of all of those types of people.

9:02	Los: As a Pats fan, are you completely overlooking the Texans and are you rooting for the Steelers or Chiefs?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Not completely overlooking. There’s a non-zero chance that their defense pitches a shutout, and that they find some points in odd ways – defensive turnover, possibly. As for KC or PIT, meh. KC will be easier to beat, but PIT will be more FUN to beat.

9:04

Chuck: Paul, any comment on the social media hubbub today related to david ortiz’s mysterious tweet @thebostonglobe? seems unlikely he will play again in MLB since his reason for retiring was constant pain in this feet and the need for hours of daily treatment? maybe WBC participation as speculated?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I think it shows how bored we all are right now. There’s a 99% chance that it was a mistake, and meant nothing at all.

9:05

Andrew: I know a lot of people want to pick the Astros to win the AL West (within good reason) but I feel like everyone of the teams have big question marks in their starting rotation, and no matter how good your offense is you need at least decent SP to contend and this division will be decided on who’s starters answer the Q’s. How do you feel regarding the AL West?

9:06	Paul Swydan: It does seem like the Astros have a bit of a gap between them and the Mariners and Rangers and Angels. (I don’t think the A’s will contend.) But I am sympathetic to your view that there isn’t a team with a dominant starting rotation.

9:07	Chuck: MLB can try to shorten pace of play by having pitch timer and between inning timers but what are they going to do about increased bullpen usage? that is a much bigger drag on game length

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think there really is anything to be done without introducing unintended consequences for the game. You could go with the notion of using only 4 pitchers per game – which I’ve written about before – but that wouldn’t be a perfect solution either.

9:08	doug_frazier@hotmail.com: I have number one farm hand pick in NL only Roto dynasty league. Many top prospects are already owned. Between Nick Senzel and Lewis Brinson, who would you choose, focusing on impact in late 2017 and beyond?

9:09	Paul Swydan: If late 2017 is of interest, you’d have to go with Brinson, of the two. Senzel hasn’t graduated to Double-A yet.

9:09

Chuck: I know Andy Andres has a great sabr course on EdX but has fangraphs ever thought about bringing their glossery to life with some Kahn Academy esque videos to maybe show how some metrics can be calculated using statcast data or SQL or R or how some of the legwork for the articles is done? I think FG does a great job of helping people get into baseball but this could be valuable for anyone working on a thesis or their own research

9:10	Paul Swydan: No, we’d really just be duplicating Andy’s work. You should just take his class!

9:10	Sam: Do you think the Mariners could make a late push for Tyson Ross and if so, assuming medicals check out, would that make them a legitimate contender?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yes and yes, presuming his good and continued health.

9:11	Nelson: Whens Mike Trout heading to the Phillies?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I dunno, do they play them in Interleague this year?

9:11	Dave Dombroski: I believe Mookie Betts has peaked, and I am looking to trade him, while still maintaining an extremely good team this year. What kind of trade do I end up making?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Sssshhhh. No Dave. Bad. Very bad.

9:12	Jose: Will u guys ever get an app

9:12	Paul Swydan: Not likely, no. Sorry.

9:12	J. Peterman: Do you still believe in Berrios?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I WANT to believe. But my faith is waning, for sure.

9:13	Dr Evil: While the Twins may not have a huge # of options for Dozier beyond the Dodgers, should they hold out for a significant 2nd piece beyond Deleon?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. The Dodgers are bluffing. They’re not starting Kike Hernandez at second all year.

9:13	SharonKBO: If eligible, would Otani be the #1 prospect?

9:14	Paul Swydan: With the caveat that I’m not a prospect guy, it would seem that yes, he would be.

9:14	Norman: Does a Polanco for Quintana deal make sense? Pirates get the rotation help to compete in the next years before McCutcheon leaves, and have the prospect depth to replace Polanco; Sox get a cheap, young, controllable OFer for their rebuild

9:15

Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think the Pirates do that. Theoretically you’re right, but Polanco is a big part of the Pirates’ path to contention. It’d be an even swap, and then you’re counting on prospects in the outfield instead of in the rotation. I mean, maybe that’s slightly better, but I’d rather keep Polanco and try to trade prospects.

9:16	SweetGeorgia: Folty…..3.50 era 8.5 k p9, 175 innings realistic?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I would say that is a very rosy projection. I wouldn’t peg that as realistic, no. Sorry.

9:17	Norman: Over/Under on games started at 3B for Pablo Sandoval this year?

9:17	Paul Swydan: 84

9:18	Paul Swydan: And I’ll optimistically take the over.

9:18	Buccos: The White Sox seem to be turning down Glasnow, Keller, Newman for Q. Is that a mistake? Seems fair to me

9:19	Paul Swydan: It does seem relatively fair, though certainly the White Sox can hold out for more.

9:20	EbenezerBatflip: I ask questions every chat and I feel like I’m running out of questions. Please, say some inspiring new baseball stuff to rejuvenate my enthusiasm for the sport I usually can’t shut up about

9:20	Paul Swydan: Oh man, that’s a lot of pressure.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the delay

9:22	Paul Swydan: Have no fear, there’s still a lot of moves to be made in this Hot Stove season. I feel like we’re waiting on a couple of deals to come to pass, and then we’ll get another deluge.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Hi Jeff!

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:22	Gavin: What’s the upper bound for defensive runs above average? Like say Simmons played 1st, how good could he possibly be?

9:23	Paul Swydan: This one is better for Jeff to answer.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: 10 to 15 at 1B from work I have done

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Limited chances is the issue

9:23	Joe: For someone who is new to analytics, what are the main statistics that one should get to know.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: wOBA and FIP. Grow from there. If you understand the concepts of both, you can expand your knowledge from there.

9:24	Paul Swydan: There’s so many, and it depends on which site you prefer. From this site, wOBA, FIP, WPA and UZR are good starting points.

9:25	TengoPreguntas: Why do so many people underrate adam eaton? I see so many people describing the trade the nats made as some sort of huge coup for the white sox.

9:25	Paul Swydan: I don’t think that’s a reflection on Eaton, who is quite good, but rather an admission that the White Sox did get quite the haul for him.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I think people still peg Giolito as a top 10 prospect. He took a step back and he may just be a top 50 guy.

9:26	Dave in London: 11-team, AL-only 4×4 (two expansion teams this year starting with few players). Keeping four OFs (Mookie, Mazara, Judge, Leonys Martin). Should I also keep Nyquin ($1) or HS Kim ($5), or toss both back into the draft pool?

9:27	Paul Swydan: It seems like you could toss them both back, because neither would have a starting position on your team.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I would keep Naquin or try to trade him. He has great value at $1 in which you should exploit in some way.

9:28	Lame Jokester: I don’t understand the “Archer” poll, he’s only been a big leaguer for four seasons and how can anyone vote against 2015?

9:28	Paul Swydan: You are living up to your name, well played!

9:29

INFINITE WISDOM: Good evening fellas, I love your chats (you have contributed greatly to my success in fantasy. I posed this question to Paul Sporer, and would love to hear your takes on the subject. Choosing between 2 players with varying degrees of excess value. 10 team pts keeper league; K. Bryant (3rd forever) vs. C. Correa (24th rd, moves up 8 rds each year kept, with a maximum 2rd value after 3rd kept year–instead of costing me 1st rd in year 3, it will be 2nd rd). 32 rds total. What say you guys, who would you keep?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Probably still Bryant, but I wouldn’t fault you for rolling with Correa.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Also, thank you for the kind words.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: The value is really close. I think Bryant will be better offensively and give you better overall numbers.

9:31	INFINITE WISDOM: Who would be the more justifiable and value adding reach? Trea Turner in round 3 or G. Sanchez in round 5? 10 teamer, 32 rounds.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Wow, tough one. I’ll say Turner, just because he’ll be getting SS eligibility.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like either then. Way too early. Turner in the 3rd is guess if you have to.

9:33	Alex: How are the Indians going to sort out their small catching logjam? Gomes has been awful for a while, but they have invested a fair amount in him. Does he get another shot to battle with Perez in ST?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah, they’re rolling with Gomes IIRC.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Gomez will get at least 2 months to figure it out.

9:33	CamdenWarehouse: Chris Archer’s best season was definitely his fourth. Oh, was that not what you meant?

9:33	Paul Swydan: It wasn’t ‘House.

9:34	Lord above : Do you guys wear lucky hats when you watch baseball?

9:34	Paul Swydan: When I worked for the Rockies, I did. But, somehow, I’ve fallen out of the habit of wearing hats. Probably because I spend most of my time in the house.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, not me. I don’t have any lucky items or rituals.

9:35	Thomas: Can you do a poll for the worst archer season? The one before Archer Vice was pretty boring

9:36	Paul Swydan: Oh I think it’s hands down Season 6. But if you insist…

9:37

Paul Swydan:

What is your least favorite season of “Archer” ???

Season 1 (9.0% | 1 vote)

Season 2 (0% | 0 votes)

Season 3 (0% | 0 votes)

Season 4 (27.2% | 3 votes)

Season 5 (Archer Vice) (0% | 0 votes)

Season 6 (36.3% | 4 votes)

Season 7 (Figgis Agency) (18.1% | 2 votes)

None, they’re all great! (9.0% | 1 vote)

Total Votes: 11

9:37	anonymous: What skills competition is All Star Weekend missing?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I’ve written about this before, but in general, throwing competitions. I particularly want to see an outfield throw-to-home accuracy/speed competition.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: None. I am also not a fan of the HR derby as it is currently done.

9:39	Johnny Jackson: Should the Red Sox get a platoon partner for Sandoval? Maybe Trevor Plouffe?

9:40	Paul Swydan: No, they don’t have room for such a person unless they’re getting rid of Brock Holt, and Brock Holt is the devil you know. No reason to sign someone else unless he’s going to be a big upgrade over Holt, and Plouffe would not be.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so for now and Holt could step in as needed.

9:41	Dan: Hey guys how do you think Bird performs if he gets 450PA?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Probably not well enough to be your starting first baseman, but potentially good enough to be your UTIL player, or at least be in your UTIL rotation/bench.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Only 450? Not so good then as someone else is taking PA. I do expect some struggles especially after hearing he was rusty in the AFL

9:42	Paul Swydan: And with Holliday around, 450 is an open question, I think.

9:43	Oliver : Keep forever no cost: Dahl or Mazara?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Dahl

9:43	Paul Swydan: We have Bird at 350 PA, FYI – http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9#ALL

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Mazara. Dahl will likely be better in Colorado, but see his value drop once he has to change teams.

9:44	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Just got here. And I just changed my name that I’m using on these chats before I even signed in tonight. Keep up the good work Paul!

9:44	Paul Swydan: Hey, thanks! I love that name!

9:44	JC: Can we expect Gerrit Cole and Matt Harvey to return to all star form in 2017?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I am expecting Cole’s return to such status, but not Harvey. Harvey being that good again would be a nice bonus.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I would bet on Cole over Harvey, but I don’t have high hopes for either until I see them throw.

9:45	Jose: Do you think the trend towards non-traditional defensive alignments could change the way we think about traditional defensive tools across the infield? For example, could range increase in importance for 3rd baseman as they more often line up where the SS normally plays?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Definitely, that is something worth watching.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe but not really.

9:47

bananastand: it seems like every year the nats are connected in more rumors than others for trying to acquire major free agents. Is it that the nats are more active than other teams and just have happened to fail to acquire guys they were connected with or does their news just tend to get leaked more often?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I honestly couldn’t say. That’s one of those things that’s hard for us to concretely know from the outside, and I’d rather not speculate.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I would not be surprised if their news gets leaked more. Also, they can be in on more players than teams like the Rays, so they will have more rumors.

9:49	Oliver : Keep forever no cost: Tanaka Taillon D. Duffy (other SPs are Scherzer Kluber Price)

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Taillon, but if you believe in Tanaka’s regenerative ability, he’d be a good answer as well.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I guess I am to pick one

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Tanaka if competing short term, Duffy long term.

9:51	Jose: Useless question of the day: pick a player without major-league AB with the best chance (i.e., 0.01%) of the HOF

9:52	Paul Swydan: huh. no major league PA? austin meadows?

9:52	Paul Swydan: ozzie albies?

9:52	Paul Swydan: otani?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: No one sticks out right now. Not many great prospects in the high minors without MLB PA.

9:52	anonymous: Jose: Otani

9:53	anonymous: Does Joe Panik + the tire fire that is the Giants top-of-farm prospects get them anywhere close to Dozier? LA and SF like to try to snipe each other on stuff like this

9:53	Paul Swydan: I don’t see why the Giants would want to trade Panik-plus for Dozier unless they’re convinced that Panik will not be healthy long-term.

9:54	Upstate Mets Fan: Mets don’t look like they ‘need’ to do anything except dump Jay Bruce, but which pitchers would you most be willing to offer extensions to? Any chance they could lock up Syndergaard?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think the trade would work. The Giants aren’t giving enough up

9:54	Paul Swydan: Pretty much just Syndergaard.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Whoops, sorry Jeff.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Syndergaard is the only one I would extend if any.

9:55	Jose: favorite player growing up?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: George Brett

9:56	Paul Swydan: So many. The posters I had on my wall (that I remember) were Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, Mike Greenwell and Mark McGwire. Also Ellis Burks.

9:56	Paul Swydan: And then Mo Vaughn, when he came along, though I was a teenager by then.

9:56	Paul Swydan: And then Pedro and Manny.

9:56	Ryan: Miguel Sano rest of career? Chris Carter type? Or something much more?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Much more, for now.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Just more, not much more

9:57	anonymous: “Mike Greenwell” seems a bit out of place in that lineup

9:57	Paul Swydan: How dare you disparage the Gator!

9:58	Paul Swydan: Seriously Mike Greenwell had 25.7 career WAR, he was no scrub.

9:58	Taco Tuesday: Favorite oatmeal accessory?

9:59	Paul Swydan: maple and brown sugar. also bananas, walnuts.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Chickens, they eat it, I don’t

9:59	Chaco Chicken: What do you guys think about Garrett Richards recovery? Can he pull a Masahiro or has he just delayed the inevitable?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Jeff knows this better than I do.