FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/24/15

by Paul Swydan

November 24, 2015

5:47	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! We’re baaaaaack. Join Jeff and myself tonight at 9 pm ET and we can talk some baseball. Or we can talk about The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2016, on sale now! Or whatever else you want to talk about.

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everyone, let’s get started. It’s good to be back.

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Good evening everyone.

9:01	Comment From Scott Does Neil Walker get traded?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I don’t see the rush

9:03	Paul Swydan: I think they’re in a tough spot with Walker. They can’t afford to trade him for prospects. If they deal him, they’ll have to get a major league ready piece back. And that may be tough to procure.

9:03	Comment From Dylan Does a Tyson Ross for JBJ trade still make sense?

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: JBJ?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Jackie Bradley Jr.

9:04	Paul Swydan: It makes sense, but I would rather keep him.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Bradley, that is.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh, OK. I think Bradley is gone, but it could one of 60 different pitchers

9:05	Comment From Guest Any chance of either the White Sox or Orioles trading for CarGo?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Well, the Rockies should certainly be dangling him, but I don’t know that the Orioles or White Sox are the prospect rich teams that the Rockies should be targeting.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Those teams have the money. Many of the teams I see as partners don’t have the prospects.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I guess it depends on what the Rockies want. I’d be eating money to get prospects, but who knows if they’ll do that.

9:07	Comment From Minty WELCOME BACK!! What’re your thoughts on Carlos Martinez and Profar, both shoulder injuries, for a dynasty?

9:07	Paul Swydan: This one is for Jeff.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Martinez worries me, shoulders injuries are a mess. No on Profar, we know he can hit, the key will be throwing. He could be a huge sleeper if he can throw.

9:08	Comment From Ryan Dipoto might have an easier time trading himself to another team than he would trying to trade Cano. Who wants that bad a contract with that bad an attitude?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Please. Someone will want him if they make him available.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: The attitude is not the issue, the money Seattle is willing to eat is the key.

9:09	Comment From Matt Carlos Carrasco for Puig, who say no? Both are sign through 2018,thought Carrasco has 2 team options that potentially balance out the pitcher risk…..The Dodger than proceed to go crazy and sign Heyward instead of a FA pitcher.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think the Dodgers say no.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Dodgers, but the Indians could throw in a small piece to make it work.

9:11	Comment From iss If you’re the Mets and you can only have one of Fowler, Desmond, or Zobrist, who do you take?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Oh definitely Zobrist. He fits their needs much better. You can move him around, and figure out if Herrera can be in the rotation with Flores.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Desmond, but I really think they need to look beyond Fowler in the OF

9:12	Comment From non Theo says he is looking for a L handed contact hitter for top of the order who can also pay solid CF defense. Other than Span and Heyward, who else fits this mold, especially on the trade market?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Well, I think that’s more of a statement that they’re not going to re-sign Fowler, to be honest.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Theo is dreaming, all teams are looking for that player. They are called All-Stars

9:16	Paul Swydan: Giving them the benefit of the doubt, looking at this list, http://www.fangraphs.com/le… they could call on Billy Burns and/or Blackmon.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: It seems I have lost Paul

9:16	Paul Swydan: Sorry, my computer died.

9:17	Comment From non Plans for the long weekend? Do you guys get a long weekend?

9:17	Paul Swydan: We do get a long weekend. We head to family on Thursday for turkey and trimmings, and then to a friend’s house for even more food on Friday. Not sure about the rest of the weekend.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I live near my wife’s and my family so two meals and will watch that sport with the weird shaped ball.

9:18	Comment From Eastern NC Pick a keeper: Bautista, Addison, Xander. Already have machado, Harper, Goldie, schwarber, in contention next year. Is Addison too good of a prospect tpass up?

9:18	Paul Swydan: You know I’m going to say Xander.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: With those keepers, go with Bautista and win. He is a 2nd round talent

9:19	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Jeff is probably right.

9:20	Comment From Eastern NC Pick a keeper, head to head, lineup set except 3b: Moose, Verlander, Familia, Tanaka? Not excited about Tanaka, thinking Verlander?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Tempted to say Familia, to be honest with you. I don’t see the other three as difference makers worth keeping.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Or in the case of Tanaka, I still worry about the elbow.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I may look to trade with teams with better keepers, but I may take a chance on Verlander’s last two months.

9:21

Comment From Billy Bob
Is there reason to believe that the Dodgers are using Puig’s alleged attitude problems to shadow the fact that they may not believe he is a ~130 wRC+ guy moving forward, thus attempting to sell still sell him as an elite player? Do either of you see concerns within his batted ball profile?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Sure, there’s concerns, but I’m still betting on the upside.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t have time to dig now, but I think they just see him as one of their better trade chips. And most of the team doesn’t like him.

9:23	Comment From Vic What overall pick is the earliest you would take Posey? Pick #?

9:23	Paul Swydan: 10-11 seems about right.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: 30, ! am catcher adverse

9:24	Comment From Yefferson Trout, Cutch, Betts, Springer are my top 4 keepers in a keep 5 with no penalty. My options for the last keeper are Puig, Scherzer and Kluber. Who do I go with?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Scherzer, probably. You don’t need another outfielder. Also, go crack a beer, I think you’re going to be juuuuust fine.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Scherzer

9:25	Comment From Roger Lindor didn’t make the mid-season top 50 trade value list. Where would you put him now?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Mid 30s? He’s definitely in the top 50 for sure.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably around 25, I don’t believe in the power jump.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: At least yet.

9:26	Comment From non Where is a good place to get a little history behind this website? I was browsing some old articles and saw appelman started it in 05, whats he up to now? Who have been the major contributors though the years? Any behind the scenes drama etc?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Ha, behind the scenes drama. No not really. We’re an internet company, and the company is still run by David Appelman.

9:27	Comment From Scott Lincecum to the Pirates on a one year deal?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know on the history. All, I can say with Appelman is he makes all the changes with the site. He has made a huge change which was to be known tomorrow, but because of me it was pushed back to Monday

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: On Lincecum, we will know more after his January tryout

9:28	Paul Swydan: RE: Lincecum, if they think they could teach him to get grounders, I could see it. He needs to show and prove first.

9:28	Comment From Roger We haven’t heard much about Ian Desmond or Jeff Samardzija lately– do you think their market will prove weaker than anticipated?

9:29	Paul Swydan: No, but I think they’re January guys. They need to see where the top tier guys shake out first.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: The mid guys always sign last. The top and bottom guys sign and the middle tier fills in later

9:30	Comment From Minty Melancon wasn’t as good as the saves totals look. As a lifelong Bucco fan I’m afraid that they’ll foolishly make him an example of being willing to spend money when he should be traded. Am I wrong?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I think you’re wrong on both counts, actually. I don’t think they’ll spend money on him, but he was really, really good last year. Most SD in baseball last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/le… Here’s what i wrote about that: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think they will go crazy with him. Now trading him may be smart, but don’t expect the Kimbrell haul.

9:31	Comment From The Dude Sweet Caroline. BUM BUM BUM! FanGraphs never seemed so good!

9:31	Paul Swydan: So good! So good! So good! Sing it Jeff!

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Bah, humbug

9:32	Comment From The Dude So THT Annual should be on the Kindle store within 24 hours, right?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Fingers crossed. It is out of my hands now.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Kindle Direct Publishing says it can take 72 hours, which would be 72 hours from last night when I submitted it. Usually it doesn’t take that long though.

9:33	Comment From The Dude Is The Good Dinosaur Pixar’s way of saying, “I know everyone thought Inside Out was the dawn of PIxar’s Renaissance, but nah, that was the last good idea we have, so here’s a dinosaur movie instead.”

9:34

Paul Swydan: Aww, it looks really good! Actually, it had a lot of development problems, so you might be right. It was supposed to come out last year, but they had to push it back, hence why they didn’t have a feature film last year, and two this year. Both company firsts. In any case, I’m taking my son to see it!

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Some movie had to come after Inside Out and it had a 99% chance of being worse. My kids want to see it, so Pixar has won them.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Jeff is right about that. Although to be honest, Inside Out isn’t even in my top 5 Pixar. If I can predict how a movie is going to end while I’m watching it, then it’s not that great. 🙂

9:35	Paul Swydan: Because I’m a moron, is why.

9:36	Comment From The Dude So, what was up with Carson’s assault on Dayn Perry on Twitter?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I don’t even see one?

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Haven’t seen it

9:37	Comment From Michael Chances Price ends up in Toronto?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I think pretty good. It’s been my call all along. I think the Red Sox are the other team that wants him badly, and if I’m Toronto, I can’t let that happen.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I think good, but I am probably wrong. I think figuring out Price will be hard.

9:38	Comment From The Dude Do the Rockies have like a plan or something? They seem to operating under the “lose-now, lose-later” strategy, right?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I know that the Rockies have smart people on their staff. I’ll say that much. Whether they have a cohesive plan in place, I can’t say for sure.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, they have direction. They need to pick a lane and stick to it.

9:39	Comment From dom Could the sox have gotten Tyson Ross for that package they sent to SD?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Was it enough for Ross? Sure. But why do the Padres want to trade Ross? They need MORE guys like Ross, not fewer.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably, that haul for a RP was insane.

9:41	Comment From iss If FAs were signed solely based on turkey-cooking skills, who’d get the $30MM AAV and why?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I love this question, and the obvious answer is Bartolo Colon.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Greinke, he would go all Alton Brown on us and cook the most tender turkey ever.

9:42

Comment From The Dude
The feud existed leading up to Perry’s appearance on FanGraphs Audio a week ago. He tweeted stuff like: Is @daynperry ignoring invitations to appear on FanGraphs Audio because he’s busy euthanizing these puppies? and Why won’t @daynperry appear on FanGraphs Audio? Is it because he has FINANCIAL INTERESTS tied to the success of ISIS? He hasn’t denied it. and Would @daynperry kill BABY HITLER? Or aid him in becoming an even STRONGER LEADER? He could put the issue to rest on FanGraphs Audio.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Oh, ha, no big deal, that’s how the two of them are with each other.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: That is not a feud, that is Carson trying to be funny and failing.

9:44	Comment From The Dude DD is proving that no farm system has so much depth and talent that he can’t easily blow it up in a matter of months in trades.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Is he? He said that was his big trade for the offseason. If he’s true to his word, the Red Sox farm system will be just fine.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: At least he is trying to win and the MLB level.

9:45	Comment From Scott Paul, I have been hearing alot of good things about the Annual. Can you give me a brief summary of what it contains?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Well, you can see the whole table of contents here: http://www.hardballtimes.co… And excerpts here: http://www.hardballtimes.co…

9:46	Paul Swydan: The elevator pitch is this: It’s 364 pages of baseball goodness. We try to include something for every baseball fan, no matter how you follow the game, there should be something for you. And this year, we may have our longest analysis section ever – nearly 150 pages.

9:47	Paul Swydan: And right now it’s just $14. You may spend more on lunch tomorrow.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: And 20 pages on prospect values

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yeah Jeff’s piece is really good. But while Jeff usually has no competition for best Analysis piece, this year he does. Which is not a knock on Jeff. We’re just really strong this year.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I may have give Paul a coma thinking about my edits.

9:48	Comment From The Dude Paul: you left out the BEST PART! The Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.8 x 9 inches. How cool is that?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Very? I don’t know, I like that you can hold it nice and easy. Also, it’s the cheapest dimension printing-wise.

9:49	Comment From JR Do you think the Dodgers will end up with both Jansen and Chapman? Who closes?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I would be surprised, yes. IF they do land him though, I think they’ll have to go hydra. Jansen is too good to just shunt aside.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but it would be cool.

9:50	Comment From The Dude If (when, really) my family gets into a political argument, which article from THT is the best one to bring up to diffuse it.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Probably the one that leads to the most baseball arguments, right? If so, I’m guessing Kiley’s article, which talks about whether there should be one draft or two if/when international players become subject to a draft.

9:52	Comment From Bat Paul, Ruben Sierra had 7 consecutive seasons of negative fWAR in 1993 to 2000 – do you know of anyone with a longer consecutive negative streak?

9:52	Paul Swydan: He did?!?!? No, I can’t think of one. My only guess off the top of my head are Willie Bloomquist and Pete Kozma, but I think Bloomquist had at least one positive season, and Kozma hasn’t played long enough.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but I will find out after the chat.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I applaud Sierra’s agent for keeping him paid

9:53	Comment From Scott Jerry Crasnick just reported that the Mariners are working on a trade to acquire Ozuna. It looks like Mr. Loria can finally get some sleep tonight

9:54	Paul Swydan: See, now that’s JUST what Dipoto should be doing. Accumulate talent. If he can get Ozuna for less than what he should, that’s awesome.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: And I saw the Mariners are looking to move Trumbo.

9:54	Comment From Bat Paul / Jeff – what do you think about a Dodgers-Marlins trade centered on Puig and Jose Fernandez?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Now that’s a hell of an idea. There’s a lot of risk on both sides of that, and if the Marlins really do move Ozuna for a pitcher, it’d be a fit from their end.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Marlins could get a ton, especially if they wait to the trade deadline.

9:55	Comment From JR I keep seeing references to an Aug/Sep return for Alex Cobb. Why so late?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Min 14 months after he had surgery. Starters are getting closer to 15

9:57	Comment From Bracing for Turkey FYI: with the WS ending on 1 November and P&C voluntary reporting day being 18 February, the “baseball solstice” is midnight Christmas night. So when we wake up on Boxing Day we will be closer to the start of the 2016 season than the end of the 2015 season.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Cool

9:57	Paul Swydan: Now that is very cool. Best Christmas gift you could ask for!

9:58	Comment From John Jose Quintana for Mookie Betts?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I like Quintana, but I’d rather keep Mookie.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: No … Mookie should bring more

9:58	Comment From Scott What can the Pirates expect from Glasnow and Bell this year? Could they be major contributors?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: On Cobb. Mid-May surgery for Mid-July return at the earliest

9:59	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t count on them being major contributors, at least not from day one. I think they can be up in June, but we’ll see. The Pirates place in the contention spectrum should give them the leeway to keep them down until they’re 100% ready.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a fan of Bell. He could play, but I see him struggling. Glasnow intrigues me some