FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/28/17 by Paul Swydan November 28, 2017 7:11 Paul Swydan: Which player acquisition do you care most about? Giancarlo Stanton (6.9% | 11 votes) Shohei Ohtani (59.4% | 94 votes) Both equally! (11.3% | 18 votes) Neither, I just want them to move so other stuff starts happening!!!!!!! (22.1% | 35 votes) Total Votes: 158 7:13 Paul Swydan: What is your favorite Star Wars movie? Episode I: The Phanton Menace (3.8% | 6 votes) Episode II: Attack of the Clones (1.9% | 3 votes) Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (4.4% | 7 votes) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (5.1% | 8 votes) Episode IV: A New Hope (12.1% | 19 votes) Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back (30.7% | 48 votes) Episode VI: Return of the Jedi (15.3% | 24 votes) Episode VII: The Force Awakens (2.5% | 4 votes) Episode VIII: The Last Jedi (even tho I haven’t seen it yet!) (3.2% | 5 votes) NONE, STAR WARS IS TRASH! (20.5% | 32 votes) Total Votes: 156 9:00 Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! 9:01 Paul Swydan: Just me tonight. Jeff is out of pocket. 9:01 MattyB: Does Keynan Middleton have a reasonable shot at taking over the Angels’ closer role during the 2018 season? 9:02 Paul Swydan: His chances probably depend on 1) can he cure his home run problems? and 2) Who gets hurt in front of him. But certainly not impossible. 9:02 Bones: Hey, thanks for chatting tonight. Fantasy questions, who you take in a 11-team 5×5 with $280: Rendon ($21) and Bogaerts ($16) or Stanton ($42)? Already keeping Ozuna at $12. 9:03 Paul Swydan: If you can wait until Stanton is traded and then we can revisit I could give you a more definitive answer. But for now, I’d say roll with Rendon and Bogaerts. Stanton is a full 15% of your cap right now. That’s a lot for one player. 9:04 Paul Swydan: Especially one player who’s almost certainly just had his best season ever. 9:04 Srhkthew2: Hey Paul, at what point would Kershaw lose the mantle of #1 SP to Scherzer? 9:04 Paul Swydan: I’m not sure he’ll ever lose it to Scherzer. Both have had nagging injuries the last couple of years. 9:05 ThatsNotMyMonster: Best guess at chronological order of these events: A) Otani signs, B) Stanton is traded, C) Yankees hire a manager 9:05 Paul Swydan: B, C, A ? 9:05 Paul Swydan: None of the other permutations would surprise me though. 9:05 Dominic: Based on Ohtani’s criteria, wouldn’t the rangers seem best positioned to accommodate those needs? They have ‘a strong scouting presence’ in Japan and experience with cultural assimilation with Darvish of course. They’ve got over $3 million in international budget room to offer. All other factors being equal, why not the Rangers? 9:06 Paul Swydan: Because it’s in Texas and his endorsement opportunities figure to be more limited there? That’d be my guess. 9:06 John: How likely is this offseason. Giants are able to trade for Giancarlo Stanton. They also sign Shohei Otani. Later they trade away Belt to the Cardinals. 9:06 Paul Swydan: All three of those things happening would seem like a fairly low probability. 9:06 Trade Maker: San Francisco Giants Get: Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Prado, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Sam Travis Boston Red Sox Get: Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Belt Miami Marlins Get: Denard Span, Tyler Beede, Chris Shaw, Jason Groome, Michael Chavis Giants fill all of their holes and only have to take about $20m in excess luxury tax numbers, this would create a hole at 1st base, but Posey gives them flexibility to work with. Red Sox fill first base and don’t have to enter the Hosmer sweepstakes, plus, get the premiere bat in Ozuna, both of them for only about $20m. Marlins get nearly $40m in payroll relief and a pool of prospects from both teams. 9:07 Paul Swydan: I guess I’m unclear on why the Marlins want to trade Ozuna. 9:07 Paul Swydan: In general, I don’t think this deal works. Sorry. 9:07 Paul Swydan: I also can’t see the Red Sox agreeing to be part of a Stanton trade in which they *don’t* acquire Stanton. 9:08 Rule 5 Draft: Have you thought of doing an article building a team out of Rule-5 eligible players? Not that they would be a great team, but it would work as a great primer for the draft. 9:08 Paul Swydan: It would if the rules were still the same. Under the new rules of the last five years or so, it’d be a pretty bad team, and would just reinforce the point that the Rule 5 Draft is no longer all that meaningful. 9:09 Mr. Fister: I can’t wait until Eno’s chat on Thursday. Can we talk about sammiches? 9:09 Paul Swydan: Sure? 9:09 Pete: What do you expect from Luke Weaver and Chase Anderson this coming season? Weaver was rocked hard his last two starts….tired? 9:09 Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t read anything into him getting rocked in any two consecutive starts, or being lights out in any two consecutive starts, for that matter. 9:10 Paul Swydan: I’m not expecting either to be as good as they were in 2017, but I still expect them to be solid players. 9:10 Guest: It’s too early for a major media outlet to host a mock draft, correct? We want to know were some of the free agents will play before we put a value on them! 9:11 Paul Swydan: Pretty sure the RotoGraphs guys have already done some mock drafts, so I’ll say no. 9:11 Mister Puppy : “Sith” is so underrated. I feel like I and II put people off so much that they just disregarded what turned into a solid film. 9:12 Paul Swydan: I mean, Anakin gets literally cut in half and sits smoldering on the shores of a lava river for like 30 minutes and somehow still lives. That scene was just so completely ridiculous. 9:12 Guest: Is there any team Elsbury would accept a trade to? Or is he just an expensive backup at this point? 9:13 Paul Swydan: I think the latter. I can’t see why he would accept a trade that gets him more playing time, and I can’t see a team wanting to play him for more than 300 PA anyway. 9:13 Slumpbuster: It has been discussed that the Cubs are no longer in the same tier as the Dodgers and Nationals. 9:13 Paul Swydan: Not sure I believe anyone is on the Dodgers tier in the NL, but I would put the Cubs and Nationals on relatively equal footing. 9:14 Seth: Pick a side: $14 J Turner or $7 Brinson + $10 Moncada. $260 5×5 roto 15 teams, deep rosters. Thanks! 9:15 Paul Swydan: Gotta stick with Turner there. That’s a good price for a star player. I like both Brinson and Moncada, but until the Brewers move Braun, I’m not sure how much playing time is available for Brinson. 9:15 bosoxforlife: When I first heard that Maitan was now a free agent I was expecting a feeding frenzy almost equal to Ohtani, then I read, in multiple articles, that he is no longer seen as anything special and maybe nothing at all. I am confused. 9:16 Paul Swydan: I assume the .273 OBP in his stateside debut had something to do with it. But I agree, he’s still not 18 and HAS played stateside. That’s rare. 9:17 B. Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Hey Paul, I was in the mountains for over a week. Just got back to civilization on Monday. What did I miss? 9:17 Paul Swydan: Not much! Ohtani might get posted this week. Stanton trade talks are still all smoke. The Yankees still haven’t hired a manager. No free agents have signed. 9:18 Joe: From what I am reading Shohei Ohtani is almost guaranteed to be in the American League because a team would not want a valuable pitcher playing the field. Why would any NL team even entertain the thought of landing him? Because he could hit on the day he pitches??? 9:19 Paul Swydan: Because you don’t even worry about stuff like that. That’s all details. Every team should be trying to acquire a premium talent when you can get one for cheap. 9:19 Matt: Poll question is missing the obvious answer, Star Wars Christmas Special! 9:19 Paul Swydan: Ran out of options, sorry! 9:19 Matt: On a scale of 1-10, how worried should we be if nobody signs or is traded by April? 9:19 Paul Swydan: Eh, no biggie. Let’s just run it back. 2017 was a good year. 🙂 9:19 Joe: How can one vote for Phantom of the Menace as their favorite, nobody likes kids. 9:20 Paul Swydan: Kids are the worst. I don’t like anyone who has ever been a kid. 9:20 Urooj: Why isn’t anything happening? We’re approaching a month since Game 7 of the World Series and Doug Fister and Ryon Healy are the biggest acquisitions. Beyond weak. 9:21 Paul Swydan: Everyone’s waiting on Stanton and Ohtani. In a sense, it’s frustrating. In another sense, it’s nice to have the break. Though obviously it’s easier for me since the Celtics and Patriots have been great. 9:21 Cotton: Would the Yankees run 1 6-man rotation if they got Ohtani? 9:22 Paul Swydan: Running a true 6-man rotation is difficult without making liberal use of the disabled list. I doubt Ohtani signs up for being put on the disabled list for large swaths of time. 9:23 Big Joey: In a league which includes OBP, SLG, L and Hlds as extra categories on top of the normal 5×5, would you agree that I should focus mainly on power bats/bats in general? Seems like speed and pitching are definitely less valuable in this format, correct? 9:24 Paul Swydan: No, not really. If you don’t get a few great pitchers or draft pitchers from bad teams, you could take a beating in the L category. 9:24 Big Joey: How much do you love Jose Ramirez in a keep forever league? I have a chance to acquire him but will cost my first 3 rounds of the draft (rounds 7, 8 and 9). I already have great keepers but it seems like a good idea to lock up an elite 2nd baseman. Worth it? 9:24 Paul Swydan: Hard to say definitively, but if Ramirez qualifies at 2B and 3B, then it might be worth it, yes. 9:25 Paul Swydan: It’s a hard sell for me for most players because those rounds are very important, but if you have the position flexibility, maybe. 9:25 Big Joey: Keep forever league (OBP and SLG are extra offensive categories), would you trade Lindor and Conforto for Trea Turner and Donaldson? 9:25 Paul Swydan: Yeah, because I worry about Conforto’s health/what the Mets do with him. 9:26 toki: If Elsbury won’t accept a trade. At what point do the Yankees see it as a sunk cost and release him for the roster spot? Or can he be decent enough as a left handed hitter to stay viable on that roster as a bench bat? 9:26 Paul Swydan: As I wrote last year, I think Ellsbury is a fine fourth outfielder. I wouldn’t cut him unless they had absolutely no other choice payroll-wise. 9:28 Lewis Brinson: Will I be in Milwaukee in April? 9:28 Paul Swydan: Honestly, I think it’s 50/50 at this point. The way they kind of yanked him around last year wasn’t all that encouraging. 9:28 Roger : Would you rather give 6 years to Hosmer or JD Martinez? 9:28 Paul Swydan: Martinez, for sure. 9:29 Rick Hahn: What kind of offers can I expect for Avi Garcia? 9:29 Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t expect any offers for him. Not in the offseason. A) He’s only got one good season under his belt, and B) There’s plenty of outfielders available in the offseason. 9:30 Rick Hahn: Any chance Ohtani signs with a team that has limited bonus room? 9:30 Paul Swydan: Yes, I think there is. 9:30 Trent: Which team’s Steamer projection do you think most underestimates their actual 2018 record? 9:31 Paul Swydan: The Rockies and Dbacks. 9:31 Paul Swydan: Probably the Brewers too. 9:31 Lucas Giolito: Over/under – I win 10 games this season. 9:32 Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under. 9:32 Rick: Who starts in the OF for Cleveland in 2018? 9:32 Paul Swydan: Hopefully not Jason Kipnis… 9:33 Paul Swydan: Zimmer seems like a good bet. 9:33 Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, so does Kipnis. 9:34 Paul Swydan: And then I’d guess the third starter is not yet on the team. 9:34 Lunar verLander: What about perennial ace Doug Fister? He signed! 9:34 Paul Swydan: Yay! 9:34 SMITTY: Is Didi Gregorious due for regression? what do you think his slash line will be next year? 9:35 Paul Swydan: I’ll say .277/.310/.450. 9:36 Paul Swydan: Keep in mind though that even when he only slugged .370 he was a 3-WAR player. He doesn’t need to hit to be effective. 9:36 Big Joey: How do you feel about Conforto now that he received some great news about his recovery? Top 50 player overall? 9:36 Paul Swydan: He still plays for the Mets. They’ll screw it up somehow. 9:37 Mr. Fister: Is Delvin Perez worth stashing for one more year in a long-term dynasty league? 9:38 Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’d give it one more year. 9:38 Giants: Let’s say the Giants have the dream of an offseason. Trade for Stanton, sign Ohtani, and trade for a solid Centerfielder. Are they better than the D’backs or Dodgers? Obviously, depends if they hold onto Panik or Belt, but still. 9:39 Paul Swydan: I don’t think even the dream offseason makes them better than the Dodgers. But it could put them on equal footing with the Dbacks and Rockies. 9:39 Jerry reinsdorf: % chance I sign Machado or Harper and contend in 2019. 9:39 Paul Swydan: Bahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Oh my, thanks, I needed that laugh. 9:40 Paul Swydan: I would never predict that Reinsdorf would be the top bidder on any free agent. 9:40 .: Indians OF Opening Day: LF Brantley, CF Zimmer, RF Chisenhall –> Indians OF Week 2, when Brantley gets injured: LF Kipnis (moved back from 2b), CF Zimmer, RF Chisenhall 9:41 Paul Swydan: I think that Cleveland would be better off with Chisenhall as the DH (or a bench player). The team needs a better right fielder. 9:41 Chemo Brain : Is Michael A. Taylor a “sell high” candidate? A lot of my fellow Nats fans have the team moving him for a starting pitcher. Which seems plausible, but I’m skeptical about Goodwin regressing and find it hard to believe that the Nats would bet Harper’s possible last season in DC on Robles being ready Day One 9:42 Paul Swydan: I’m sorry, that doesn’t seem at all plausible to me. The Nationals need his minimum salary on the books. 9:42 Who is Stubby Clapp?: Let’s say the Dodgers try to clear cap room for a Stanton deal. Are the Cardinals first in line asking about Joc Pederson? Or what salary would they try to move first? Obviously I am a Cardinals fan. 9:43 Paul Swydan: I don’t think the Dodgers NEED to clear any cap room to acquire Stanton. 9:44 Paul Swydan: Given that the Dodgers already have five outfielders not named Bellinger, it seems likely that one of them would go to Miami in any Stanton deal, but that doesn’t mean they’d need to trade another one elsewhere. 9:44 Pete: Do you think teams gave FAs some low ball offers, and just aren’t negotiating until Stanton/Otani settles. And if s FA signs a low deal they’ll be pleasantly surprised 9:44 Paul Swydan: No, I think teams are simply not negotiating at all. 9:44 Tim: Does Andrew Toles have a role for the Dodgers next year? He seems to have been forgotten in the wake of his injury and the emergence of Taylor/Bellinger. 9:45 Paul Swydan: It’s hard to see how he has a regular role without some injuries happening, but injuries generally do happen, and the Dodgers have an itchy DL trigger finger. So we’ll see. 9:45 Murdoc: Do you think Andrew Toles can be an everyday player? 9:45 Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. 9:46 Paul Swydan: I like Toles a lot, actually. 9:46 eloy jiminez: Over/under – 100PA’s in the bigs this year. 9:46 Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under. He only totaled 73 PA in Double-A this season, and the White Sox have no reason to rush him to the majors. 9:46 luis robert: I’ll be an all-star caliber player by 2021 9:47 Paul Swydan: OK, thanks for letting us know! 9:47 .: Is there a reason why the A’s haven’t traded away Khris Davis? He’s just wasting away in O.co, surely there’s value for him somewhere as a DH with 40-HR pop 9:47 Paul Swydan: They can’t trade everyone. 9:48 Man: Thoughts on Giolito long term? Hold or sell? 9:48 Paul Swydan: Hold. 9:48 .: Over/under – the rest of the AL Central (non-Indians) wins 280 games (70 wins/team) split between the Royals, Tigers, Twins, ChiSox 9:49 Paul Swydan: I’ll be optimistic and take the over, but you have that line set properly. I am optimistic about the Twins, and I don’t think the Royals will end up being as bad as people might think. 9:49 Robert : Hi Paul – if you gave the worst team from, say, the 1950’s, the analytical capabilities of today 1) how much would that team improve and 2) by how much would they improve? Thanks for your response! 9:50 Paul Swydan: I think the more important upgrade would be to weight training, diet, and the ability for the players to not have to work jobs selling insurance and the like in the offseason. Without those things, the analytical advantage might be muted. 9:50 Tyler: Who’s a better FA buy: Darvish this year or Keuchel next year? 9:50 Paul Swydan: Keuchel 9:51 Corey: Most likely dark horse NL MVP candidate and CY Young candidate? 9:52 Paul Swydan: If Rendon has another great season, he might get some MVP love. For Cy Young, ……. I dunno, hard to picture anyone other than Kershaw or Scherzer getting attention. But, just for fun, Jacob deGrom! 9:52 $11 Worth of Taco Bell: What’s the dumbest move the Royals make this offseason? 9:53 Paul Swydan: (Re-)signing Hosmer will likely be the dumbest thing anyone does all offseason. 9:53 Nate J.: Does LAA signing Upton disqualify them from trading for Stanton? 9:53 Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. 9:53 Lunar verLander: What do you think the odds are that the Astros extend any of their young stars this offseason? 9:54 Paul Swydan: I’d say it’s unlikely. The idea that the MLBPA can only grow their revenue pie by waiting for their stars to wait until they hit free agency seems to have taken hold. 9:54 Tim: Better chance at comeback player of the year: AGon or Morales? 9:54 Paul Swydan: Morales 9:55 Murdoc: Does Ubaldo get anything better than a minor league deal? 9:55 Paul Swydan: Probably not, no. 9:55 Who is Stubby Clapp?: Thanks for being the offseason baseball methodone clinic for us addicts. 9:56 Paul Swydan: I’m here for you. 9:56 Paul Swydan: 9:57 Who is Stubby Clapp?: What veteran starter do the Cardinals sign to steady their young rotation? 9:58 Paul Swydan: Well, Doug Fister seemed like a good candidate. 9:58 Paul Swydan: Someone like Jason Vargas or Chris Tillman maybe? 9:59 Ron: Do Galvis and Hernandez start on opening day in Philly? Or will we see Crawford and/or Kingery instead? 9:59 Paul Swydan: I’ll vote Galvis and Hernandez. 9:59 Eric Weinstein: Is it just me, or are the pending Stanton/Ohtani hold-ups overblown as the reason for the free agent market inactivity, and the effect of the CBA under-discussed? I feel like what is really going on is that with this being the first year of the new CBA, the market may be adjusting downward to the reality of the teams that have money not being willing to spend it because they don’t want to run up against the cap. 10:00 Paul Swydan: I don’t know, I think the teams all have their budgets set and won’t be timid in spending the money allotted to them. 10:00 Paul Swydan: I will say I think Stanton holding up the market is a little overblown, but I think that Ohtani certainly is. 10:01 Paul Swydan: If you can get a potential star SP for the league minimum, then you have to wait on that chance. 10:02 Paul Swydan: All right everyone, I think that’s going to do it for me. Thanks, as always for hanging out, except to those 7 weirdos who voted for Revenge of the Sith. How did Sith get more votes than The Force Awakens??? Ya’ll are weird. Stay weird though. Night!