FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/29/16

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan: Oh, hi

Paul Swydan: Crap, I spaced on my own chat.

Deez: Whur you is? Yous late holmes!

Paul Swydan: SO LATE!

Ed in Iowa: Hello!

Paul Swydan: Hi Ed! Hi everybody!

Paul Swydan: It really is good to be doing these again. I missed you guys.

Paul Swydan: Did you buy our book yet? Please buy our book so I can keep my job, thanks!

Paul Swydan: https://www.amazon.com/Hardball-Times-Annual-2017-Swydan-ebook/dp/B01N546AYO/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1479491215&sr=1-1

Mike: If the new CBA does away with draft pick compensation for free agents with QO’s attached, do you think it goes into effect immediately, or not until 2017, thereby hurting the FA’s from this year who turned down their QO’s?

Paul Swydan: I think it’ll go into effect for next offseason. This offseason is already too far along.

Paul Swydan: Can you imagine being the dude who had to tell Jeremy Hellickson that he really could have had a 4-year deal all along? ha.

mtsw: Now that Yo is back on the Mets, do the Orioles make sense as a landing spot for one of their other corner OFs? What exactly is Curtis Granderson or Jay Bruce’s trade value?

Paul Swydan: Granderson’s value is a LOT higher than Bruce’s, and to be honest, I wouldn’t trade Granderson at all. In fact, if I worked in the commish’s office, I would demand that a great ambassador for the game like Granderson stay on a New York team.

DiBoto: With the trading away of Taijuan, are the Mariners heavily relying on a Felix Hernandez revival? I’m afraid that without a big addition the rotation becomes James Paxton and a bunch of back of the rotation types. Or do you think a rotation of that fashion can work?

Paul Swydan: Well, I think no matter what they do this winter they have to count on a big revival from the King simply because of what they’re paying him. Having said that, I think Dipoto can fashion together a workable rotation, yes.

Chris: New phone, who dis?

Paul Swydan: Chris Cwik, ladies and gentlemen.

James : Would any teams bite at Kazmir 2/32 or McCarthy 2/20?

Paul Swydan: All of the teams, yes.

Doug: Angels look surprisingly ok as of now according to the fangraphs projections and say they want to contend next year. What are some moves they should look at?

Paul Swydan: Color me skeptical of this projection. 2B, 4th OF, SP and RP.

Paul Swydan: Having 8.6 WAR forecasted for Trout helps any team, but the Angels are paper thin.

Paul Swydan: They could use a good utility infielder too.

Adam: How is Steven Matz and Michael Conforto for AJ Pollock? Too much? Not enough?

Paul Swydan: Given the way the Mets dicked around with Conforto, I would say not enough, but that’s one trade where the medical team would carry a whole lot of weight. I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable trading for Pollock without an emphatic thumbs up from the medical team.

A FanGraphs Member: Hey, Paul…is FanGraphs going to offer The Hardball Times and a FG subscription as a renewal offer? That is how I signed up at this time last year.

Paul Swydan: We aren’t, no. The Dark Overlord decided he didn’t want to do that this year.

Cole: Shouldn’t the White Sox sell high on Eaton this winter? STL WAS TEX DET HOU are all competitive and could use CF help

Paul Swydan: I guess the question with the White Sox is how another rebuild will be tolerated. Can they afford to rebuild while their crosstown rivals are king of the hill? I don’t know the answer to that.

klamath: Would Kansas City be a decent landing spot for Chris Carter, whose 2016 on-base percentage trailed Kendrys Morales by only six points (and topped those of Khris Davis and Mark Trumbo, who joined Carter in the 40-homer club)?

Paul Swydan: I think any AL team is a decent landing spot for Chris Carter.

Chris G: What are your thoughts on the rumors of Justin Turner to the Cardinals? Any real merit to them? Would it be a good fit to an already crowded infield?

Paul Swydan: Yeah, I was confused by that report. I don’t see where he would play without a trade.

Buddy the Elf: Astros continue to show they will spend money. Sign EE, Sign Hill….do they sign 1 or both?

Paul Swydan: They can certainly afford to trade for both, though if the theory that says they want to sign hitting and trade a prospect for a top-line pitcher is accurate then they’d want to sign EE first.

EbenezerBatflip: Expectations for Benintendi in 2017? Is he really the left handed Mookie?

Paul Swydan: Left-handed Mookie might be a bit much, but I expect him to be a 3-4 WAR player.

FZ: Ethier, Kazmir, McCarthy, Gonzalez for Sale? Dodgers get salary relief & an ace, White Sox get veteran presents

Paul Swydan: I can’t see that being an attractive package for the White Sox. If they trade Sale, it will be for prospects.

James: I was on my high school baseball team last year and probably next year too. I’m gay, though, and my teammates sometimes made fun of me for it. I don’t like that, and it’s hard for me to just ignore it. What should I do?

Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for leaving you alone with Paul this whole time, but my daughter’s basketball practice went long.

Paul Swydan: James, I think just continue to be yourself. I realize it is a sensitive subject, but if you let it show that it bothers you it will only get worse. I was made fun of plenty in high school. When you graduate from high school, you’ll realize it was all BS. In any event, I’m sorry you have to endure that sort of treatment.

Jeff Zimmerman: Like Paul said, be yourself.

XBXBXCXNXIXGXGXEXRXBXBXC: KATOH thinks my Braves just got fleeced out of ~50 million expected future value on the Alex Jackson trade. Please tell me he’s missing something, that his micropenis comps aren’t a good methodology, anything. This is like being on the receiving end of the Shelby Miller trade if true.

Paul Swydan: First off, not a big fan of the “micropenis” term, wouldn’t have pubbed had I caught that.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think the fleecing could be write. I think the Braves gave up 50M in surplus value (~6 WAR). The key will be if Alex Jackson can make up the 6 WAR,

Paul Swydan: Second, Chris’ KATOH system isn’t accounting for the potential that Alex Jackson has. He was a first-round pick for a reason. Unfortunately, his star has fallen to the degree where it’s no longer forecastable that he makes good on that promise, which is why KATOH sees this as a loss for the Braves. That doesn’t mean it was a bad trade. It’s always worth it to take a shot on potential.

Ozzie Fan: Lot of St. Louis rumors. Any ideas how they compete with the cubs?

Paul Swydan: They’re no longer competing with the Cubs. They’re competing for a Wild Card spot.

Paul Swydan: They made that perfectly clear last winter when they refused to pony up for Heyward. That looks like a sound decision in retrospect, but the principle remains the same. I doubt the Cardinals will spend the money necessary to draw even with the Cubs, be it for free agents, international talent or in trade.

Jeff Zimmerman: The Cubs are going to be the favorite for 3-4 more years as the team stands right now without getting any more resources.

EbenezerBatflip: Anyone get the feeling that this offseason will be full of crazy trades? I think everyone is going to go big this year

Jeff Zimmerman: I think there is going to be more trades as teams will have to get creative to fill their needs. I am not sure about crazy, just more like the AZ-SEA trade

Paul Swydan: I’ll believe it when I see it. I think unfortunately that we have moved into a more cautious, cold-war-like period. Sort of a dark way to describe a baseball offseason I guess, but I don’t see a lot of crazy trades. Sorry to be a kill joy.

Erik: Someone over at MLB Pipeline said that Torres may be a top 5 prospect in the next top 100. That seems absurd. Is there some Yankee bias there?

Paul Swydan: No, he’s good enough to warrant a top 5 or 10 spot.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, he is the real deal after seeing him in the AFL. I am not sure top 5, but at least a 60 grade player. I did like Jimenez and O’Niell more

Paul Swydan: Not a whole lot of 19-year-olds putting up 115/121 wRC+ in High-A. Even fewer doing it while playing shortstop.

Kristen: Does Jurickson Profar have any trade value coming off a less-than-stellar season and with his injury history?

Paul Swydan: I don’t think Profar has trade value, but if I could get find the right deal for Odor – who is severely overrated and a powderkeg waiting to explode – I would deal him and let Profar start at second.

Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, quite a bit if they are willing to trade him.

EbenezerBatflip: Carson Smith was a weapon for SEA then injured in BOS, expectations for him in 2017?

Jeff Zimmerman: The key will be him getting healthy

Paul Swydan: Well he’s going to miss a big chunk of the season, if not all of it, recovering from Tommy John. I’m hopeful for him when he comes back though.

Jeff Zimmerman: Basically none.

Whoa Nelly: Do the Rockies have a shot at a wildcard spot, provided good health?

Paul Swydan: I always think the Rockies have a shot at a Wild Card spot, provided good health. With Jon Gray around, I especially think that this winter.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, if the pitching comes together.

EbenezerBatflip: Who is more likely to be traded Miggy or Sale?

Paul Swydan: Sale.

Jeff Zimmerman: Sale

nate marrow : Joel Sherman declared that the Mets are back to there big spending ways- if that is the case why do we keep hearing that they are out of jerry blevins, not in the market for one of the big time closers, or a legit big league catcher?

Paul Swydan: The simplest explanation would be that Joel Sherman is wrong.

Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said, they likely still have limitations.

Paul Swydan: I don’t know if he is or isn’t, but that’s my first thought. The Mets have grifted MLB into letting them operate as a mid-tier team while charging big-team prices. Why would they start spending more now unless MLB told them they had to?

Marco : do you think Jay Bruce could net a quality reliever

Paul Swydan: No, but I’m a Bruce pessimist.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, unless the team eats all his contract.

Roger: Bautista has generated very little buzz so far. Where do you think he ends up, and on what kind of deal?

Paul Swydan: He’s going to wait until other big-name players have signed, probably. I really can’t call it, to be honest. I would think 3-4 year deal. Can’t see a team giving him a 5-year deal.

Jeff Zimmerman: Right now I think he really drags it out and ends up in Baltimore on a one-year deal.

Ryan: How would you go all in for 2017 if you were the Royals GM? Or would you just punt on 2017 and rebuild?

Paul Swydan: What do you think Jeff?

Jeff Zimmerman: They are all in right now. This is the last season with the WS team. I think they keep it together until the trade deadline and sell then if out of the race. They can’t rebuild quickly so have to take a chance this year.

Jeff Zimmerman: The problem is that the farm and the wallet is empty.

Paul Swydan: Yeah, I tend to agree. This run will be remembered a lot more fondly if it’s 3 World Series trips instead of 2.

Timothy: Here’s what Yankees management should do. In a few years, sign Harper, Machado and Kershaw to monster contracts. Immediately after signing them, eat half their contracts and trade them for an insane amount of prospects. The top 10 prospects in the league will all be Yankees. Then, they can take over the world.

Paul Swydan: This is the most bulletproof plan I’ve ever seen.

Jeff Zimmerman: Reminds me of their plans from 2003: http://www.theonion.com/article/fantasy-draft-preparation-ep-1-32

Merry Cringemas: Rank in order of future value: Kyle Schwarber, Alphabet Inc., Wayans Brothers, Thanksgiving Leftovers, Taijuan Walker

Paul Swydan: 5. Leftovers, 4. Walker, 3. Schwarber, 2. Alphabet, Inc., 1. Wayans brothers

Jeff Zimmerman: Scharber, Bros, Walker, Leftovers and ABC Corp

Jason in Australia: With Jon Jay in the fold for the cubs, it means Fowler is completely gone and possibly Soler. Can the cubs possibly a major league ready lefty relief pitcher for Soler?

Paul Swydan: Why would you trade Soler for a relief pitcher? He could still be a pretty damn good player. And the Cubs don’t need any lefty relievers.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, easily … and then some

Paul Swydan: Right now, the Cubs are forecasted to have the 3rd-best RPs. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

Paul Swydan: Trading a good piece like Soler seems too cute to me.

alpha: What do the Cubs do now that they have Jon Jay? Doesn’t he just make the logjam of Schwarber/Heyward/Soler/Almora/Zobrist/Baez/I feel like I am forgetting 5 more guys, worse even though it is a decent signing?

Paul Swydan: Jon Jay is there to be an extra outfielder. He’ll get his average of 300 PA.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they have a plan. I have a feeling Schwarber and Almora are gone.

Jeff Zimmerman: IMO Almora > Jay

Jack Elliot: Hi Paul. Weird question, but with the recent successes of pitchers like Tony Barnette (former Yakult Swallows closer in the Japanese Central League, now with Texas) do you think more relief pitchers might be inclined to sign pillow contracts with Japanese teams? I am holding out hope that my Chunichi Dragons can sign the likes of Joba Chamberlain, who profiles well for this league. Thanks!

Paul Swydan: I don’t think there will ever be a big run on Americans wanting to sign with Asian teams, because most guys won’t want to deal with the culture change.

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but the Indy leagues are loaded with RP rejects. Most seem to go that route.

Paul Swydan: I also agree that Almore is better than Jay, FWIW. You sign Jay because he’s a vet who is happy to be a backup.

Nic Flair: Hey guys thanks for the chat. I know the Mets have a logjam in the outfield but what would a realistic trade look like for them to get Soler from the Cubs?

Paul Swydan: I can’t see them lining up on that sort of deal.

Jeff Zimmerman: Not going to happen

EbenezerBatflip: Dombrowski has already proven he is more likely to trade younger prospects further away from making an impact, should Sox fans expect to see Devers, Kopech, Groome to go in a trade? I can’t imagine Dombro really wants to let those bluechips burn a hole in his pocket for the next 3-5 years

Paul Swydan: Are they really 3-5 years away though? Devers reached High-A at 19 and held his own. Kopech did the same at age 20.

Paul Swydan: I can see Dombrowski any and everyone, but I’d be surprised if he traded Devers before Moncada establishes himself as the starting third baseman.

Jeff Zimmerman: Dombrowski burns through the 45 or less prospects. I see him generally keeping the studs. They could trade Hernandez and probably get an OK bullpen arm.

Jazz: Tyler Naquin. What’s his outlook next year and beyond? Are we talking stud OF?

Paul Swydan: I don’t think he’s a stud, no, but he can be a 2-3 WAR player.

Paul Swydan: Which is just fine.

Jeff Zimmerman: All I know is his drunk cousin asked this question 20 or so times in the queue over the last couple of minutes.

Jeff Zimmerman: MLB regular

ann: you said granderson is much more valuable than bruce? What is he worth then? top 100 guy?

Paul Swydan: Maybe, but I still wouldn’t trade Granderson.

Jeff Zimmerman: Probably a 45-50 grade guy. I think he stays though

EbenezerBatflip: Does Chapman get more $/years than EE?

Paul Swydan: Oooh that’s a good one. I’ll say yes on the years. Maybe even on the money.

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so, but it could be close

Pete: Does Yo signing make mets bigger contenders in the east? You think they trade Bruce for a prospect or someone in the major leagues?

Paul Swydan: I honestly don’t think it moves the needle much for them. They already had him, and I don’t expect him to be better in the future. But it’s still good that they got him back.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Nats are the favorites. Too many questions with the health of the Mets rotation and the offense and defense are probably not league average.

jared: why isn’t Tim Tebow mentioned in Cameron’s “Let’s Fix the Mets Outfield” logjam piece?

Paul Swydan: Pure oversight, I’m sure. But be sure to ask him tomorrow!

Jeff Zimmerman: Tebow is so bad.

Cheeseball: When he played for the Jays, Eric Thames was an absolute delight to watch. A fallible player who always seemed to be hustling and giving his all. I’m really glad he’s getting another shot. What are the odds he can establish himself as an everyday big leaguer?

Paul Swydan: Given that he just got a three-year deal, you’d have to think they’re pretty decent.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think the odds are decent. Some of the translations look pretty favorable. I know Eno tweeted some out today

Chris: What does a Sale trade look like? I think Schwarber, Baez, and would make for a compelling deal

Paul Swydan: As was mentioned earlier, I can’t see the Sox trading him across town.

Jeff Zimmerman: Not happening. The Sox will not trade with the Cubs as stated by their management.

Paul Swydan: It’d be a PR nightmare.

Rob: What’s your take on the Mariners’ trades? It feels like something changed, like DiPoto just got told to make the playoffs next year or else. Neither of these seem like deals a guy with job security would make.

Paul Swydan: Nah I don’t see it that way. Having said that, the Mariners making the playoffs would really be a boost to Dipoto’s job security.

Jeff Zimmerman: I actually like them for helping the MLB team. I have a feeling they were done with Walker.

D Campione!: Outside of aquiring Chapman or Jansen am I wrong to think the best move the Yankees could make with their money this year is to extend Tanaka and/or Betances?

Paul Swydan: I don’t disagree with this sentiment at all.

Paul Swydan: The baller move would be to acquire Chapman AND Jansen. That is, if you’re not worried about the fallout over having Chapman, which the Yankees clearly aren’t.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would do neither extension right now. I think their key is to get better talent any way they can

Voodoo bugaloo: Why does the chat start at 9 when it gets dark at 5?

Paul Swydan: Because I like to get my kids to bed before we start. 🙂

Jeff Zimmerman: Truth

Danisaman: Would a trade of Ellsbury+$$ for James Shields make sense? Sox get an actual CF, get out from under Shields, and get a 2-3 win player for like 12-16mm/year while the yankees take a chance on a pitcher who could be as good as a 3 if he bounces back or as bad as a 6 who eats innings and free up a spot for the youth and $$ in the long term.

Paul Swydan: No. James Shields is warm, crispy toast. He hasn’t been good in 2 years.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Sox should get younger and picking up Ellsbury is not the answer

Jaime: Does Sanchez, Judge, Gregorius, Sheffield, Torres and Frazier get Mike Trout? On the one hand, I feel like that’s not enough. But on the other hand, that’s literally selling the farm. Trout may truly be untradeable

Paul Swydan: That’s the closest I’ve seen to an actual good trade offer from a reader for Trout. I can’t see the Yankees doing it, but yes, this would be a fair odder at the very least.

Paul Swydan: offer

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s getting reasonable. I think only a few teams could actually trade for Trout

Paul Swydan: Alright everyone, that’s going to do it for us. Sorry again I showed up late, but I think it worked out well in the end. Back at it next week!

Jeff Zimmerman: Bye