FanGraphs After Dark Chat
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
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About that comment about Morrow’s ERA not matching up with peripherals…His ERA suffers from the same thing that lead to most large differences between FIP and defense- errors and luck. For example, Blue Jays had a terrible outfield defense last year and Morrow is strong impacted by OF defense as a flyball pitcher. The 4 guys who had the most innings averaged < -10 UZR/150. Morrow was also unlucky- he had the highest BABIP in the majors in 2010 among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He should have among the lowest BABIP as a flyball pitchers with high strikerout rates(k/rate is actually correlated with low BABIP). His BABIP for 2011 was also unlucky when compared to similar pitchers. Before anyone calls Morrow a "hittable pitcher", he posted low BABIP around .260 during his 15 starts as a Mariner. I don't know if I would extend Morrow for major money, but it would not be because of his ERA.