FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/13/16

by Paul Swydan

December 13, 2016

5:38	Paul Swydan: Do you think there will be a major signing/trade between now and Christmas? Definitely (21.1% \| 52 votes) I think so (33.3% \| 82 votes) Meh (10.5% \| 26 votes) I don’t think so (20.7% \| 51 votes) No way! (2.4% \| 6 votes) Define “major” (11.7% \| 29 votes) Total Votes: 246

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Paul Swydan: What’s good?

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Beer

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Pizza

9:02	Paul Swydan: I am familiar with these items.

9:02

Alexis: The A’s are stuck in this situation where Bruce Maxwell fills the exact same role and will most likely be better than Stephen Vogt next year, but Vogt is effectively the team captain and is beloved by basically everyone in the organization. What would you do? What’s your valuation of ~~clubhouse leadership~~?

9:03

Paul Swydan: My valuation of it is that it is meaningful in 2 situations. 1. When you have a star prospect(s) who are emerging on the major league team and they need to be protected/guided through their rookie season/maturation. 2. When you’re a bonafide contender. Best as I can tell, neither of these applies to the A’s.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Chemistry is a thing, but it is so tough to value from a distance. I don’t put a lot of value into leadership. I do put more value into negative leadership.

9:04	Duke: Is the otani future contract situation similar to hockey vesey/Hayes situation?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Wow, I barely can speak to the Otani situation, nevermind some hockey parallel. Sorry Duke, you have too high of an opinion of us!

9:05	Paul Swydan: Or me anyway. Maybe Jeff knows.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, I am not familiar with Hockey contracts. Contract are my least favorite part of the baseball discussions.

9:06	Chris G: What kind of year do you predict we will see from Alex Reyes? Potential rookie of the year?

9:06	Paul Swydan: I think Alex Reyes is great, but I can’t imagine picking a rookie pitcher who’s about to be managed by Mike Matheny as a rookie of the year favorite.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: He could win ROY. The walks will keep him from becoming elite.

9:07	Friar Tuck: How many rule 5 picks could stick on a hapless San Diego club this year? Do u like the strategy in acquiring depth for a tank worthy club?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I like the depth play for sure. Generally speaking, it’d be hard for more than 1 Rule 5 guy to stick unless the team you drafted him away from agrees to not to take him back and you can send him back to the minors. 2 would probably be the max.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like it, these players are probably around the 2000th best players among all levels. They usually aren’t good

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the pitcher the Rays got best of all

9:09	EbenezerBatflip: Define major, is EE major? Because if he is, then yeah, if he’s not, then no

9:09	Paul Swydan: I would call EE major, yes.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: EE would be major

9:10	Paul Swydan: He major, he major. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=somma-IdxHM

9:10	Lou: Is the Dodgers outfield of any combination of Toles, Pederson, Puig, Ethier, and Trayce Thompson good enough?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think it’s absolutely good enough, yes.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s fine

9:11	EbenezerBatflip: Will Rusney ever become anything? If not, does his signing make him one of the worst deals in modern baseball history? I know he doesn’t have the biggest contract, but its all money totally wasted without any return. Will Rusney ever be a major leaguer or is he a total bust?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Total bust

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul probably has a stronger opinion

9:12	Paul Swydan: It’s looking like bust at this stage, though I still feel like he didn’t entirely get a fair shake. There has to be more that we don’t know about his makeup that prevented him from getting said fair shake. IIRC, he went 2-for-4 with a double in his one major league start in 2016.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Certainly there was a portion of the year when Young and Benintendi (and Swihart) were hurt when the Sox could have used an extra outfielder.

9:13

EbenezerBatflip: Did the CBA knowingly screw Otani? I mean, how could a bunch of baseball gurus not know about the incoming Japanese superstar 1-2 years away? I know they wouldn’t write their own rules just in anticipation for a foreign player, but it seems weird. It also seems like Otani’s camp was scrambling to respond to the CBA by announcing he’d be posted next year. Is Otani screwed? Are we screwed by not getting to watch him in the MLB for an extra 2-3 years?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt that they set out with the intent to screw Otani over.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the contract was thrown together in a rush and no one really thought some of the implications.

9:15	Simon McPherson: Re the poll. The Angels just traded a prospect so thats a major trade because nobody knew they had any prospects.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Agreed. From the outside, it seemed like the MLBPA stalled until the owner’s called their bluff, and then they took a subpar deal for the sake of labor peace. I’m sure the story is different than that, but until someone clarifies it for us, that’s my impression.

9:15	Paul Swydan: ZING!

9:15	Ceej: Does switching Sox affect Moncada’s fantasy outlook?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I think it has to improve his outlook, because now he is going to have 2B/3B eligibility. That’ll be huge, at least for this season.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it helps him in the short term. Easier path to the majors with a full-time role

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: He may have been with a better offense long term

9:17

Agustin: I finished in the consolation last year – Help, please! Keeping Betts ($15) and Correa (12). Pick five from Schwarber (10), Buxton (11), Mazara (7), Benintendi (2), Reyes-STL (6), Kepler (5), K. Davis (5). 5×5, OBP instead of AVG. We add $5 each year we keep them, so some would run out if value sooner. Super agonizing decision for me, would appreciate the help. Thanks and keep up the great work.

9:17	Paul Swydan: Benintendi, K Davis, Reyes, Schwarber, Buxton

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Beni, Reyes, Mazara, K Davis, …… Buxton (I have little faith in him)

9:19	Paul Swydan: Consensus no on Kepler at least, hope that helps!

9:19	Stan Kasten: What moves, if any, would you like to see Dodgers make before the start of 2017 season.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Well, the Dozier trade still makes too much sense not to happen.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: They should sign another 10-15 often injured pitchers.

9:20	Ryan: I’m considering writing up some work @ the Community blog about applying xStats to Fantasy… Do you guys know if anyone has worked on this? Think it’s of interest?

9:20	Paul Swydan: You should check out Andrew Perpetua’s and Alex Chamberlain’s work over at RotoGraphs.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: xStats are always interesting and people have done them before.

9:21	Donut Muncher: If you guys could change one on-field baseball rule, what would it be?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Everything with Balks. I don’t understand the rule at all.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Or how it is enforced

9:22	Paul Swydan: This isn’t a rule change so much as it is a rule enforcement, but I’d better enforce guys who get HBPs for hanging over the plate. If you didn’t try to move, you’re out. I can’t stand when guys just stand there and get hit.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Balks would be good too.

9:24	Ozzie: Should my cards have overpaid for Turner?

9:24	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so.

9:25	Jay: Will Profar have an important role with the Rangers or will he be traded? Will he play everyday somewhere?

9:26	Paul Swydan: There really doesn’t seem to be a home for him on the Rangers. If he stays, he’ll still probably get ~400 PA, but all over the place. He is still a good trade candidate, but his value is still down, so it’s hard to peg how much he should bring back.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I thought he would get moved for pitching and still might.

9:27	Mark: I need to do a research paper about sabermetrics and something that hasn’t been researched at all or something that has barely been researched. Any ideas for me? Thanks

9:27	Paul Swydan: No, but Jeff is better at that sort of thing than me anyway.

9:28	Paul Swydan: And maybe someone in the room has an idea for you.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I have on my to-do list is where to pitch hitters who are SAC bunting. High? Inside? etc

9:29	Hank: Can Jon Gray tame Coors Field and become a top 20 SP?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Top 20 will be a tall order, but he stands as good a chance as anyone since Ubaldo’s heyday. I heart Jon Gray.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: No, ERA and WHIP will keep him out of the top 20

9:30	5 Run Homer: So, Boston still needs a catcher, right? They can’t seriously think they can roll to the World Series with Christian Vazquez and Sandy friggin Leon, can they?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I mean, I don’t see why not. But also don’t count Blake Swihart out. He might get another shot. Maybe. Hopefully.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: They could when with them. An improvement would be helpful, but if they don’t win I bet is for a different reason.

9:32	Butter: Does Kazmir and/or McCarthy have any value? Ie, could the Dodgers get any prospects back without eating money, or would they have to pay down the contracts to trade them?

9:32	Paul Swydan: In this market, they could probably get value without eating the contract, but I don’t foresee that happening.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Dodgers may need both to get through a season.

9:33	Bill G: First time chatting with you! Please rank the following rookie pitchers for long term success: Giolito, Reyes, Urias, Fulmer, Taillon, Glasnow. Thanks!

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Urias, Fulmer, Reyes ….. Taillon …. Giolito, Glasnow

9:34	Paul Swydan: Welcome, and thanks for such an easy question (eye roll). My probably incorrect / off the dome opinion is: Urias, Reyes, Fulmer, Giolito, Glasnow, Taillon

9:35	Zock jr: Re: Benintendi. How do we feel about the nickname ‘Nintendo’? I’m trying to make it a thing.

9:35	Paul Swydan: More into Super Nintendo as a nickname. Because, you know, he’s super.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s OK. I am still found of the early baseball nicknames though

9:36	Rocky: Rockies most likely would have to give up Rodgers for Quintana right?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe but I think Colorado will do everything possible to keep Rodgers

9:37	Paul Swydan: TBH, if I had to include Rodgers – and I wouldn’t do that if I was the Rockies – it would be just Rodgers.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Rodgers-Moncada would potentially be a dynastic middle infield.

9:38	Zack: Gary Sanchez tailed off significantly in Sep/Oct. Something to worry about, or just not used to the long season yet?

9:38	Paul Swydan: It’s not a concern for me, no. If he is hitting .160 in June, we’ll talk then.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Not worried at all. The league adjusted

9:39	Ryan: The depth charts project the Dodgers to beat out the Cubs as best team in the NL. Do you agree with that assessment?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but it is close. I think the best team will come down to health and depth

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t disagree with it, certainly. I don’t think the Cubs are some sort of infallible deity. They needed extras in Game 7 to win it all, and basically won by attrition, after CLE had no pitchers left. They’re great, but going back-to-back is hard.

9:40	MIkey MIke: Quintana to the Rockies for Rodgers, Tapia and Freeland……who says no?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I think the Rockies have to say no to that one.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Rockies

9:41	Ryan: Who makes the playoffs again first: White Sox or Reds?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Oh, the White Sox. Not sure what the Reds’ plan even is.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: White Sox, easier road to the top

9:42	Paul Swydan: That too.

9:42	Norman: Dave Cameron had Hill (at 2/48) and Turner (at 4/82) as the two best bargains in the FA market; how did the Dodgers snare them for 3/48 and 4/64?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Probably neither wanted to leave.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said

9:44	Tommaso Mascaro: How has Tango managed to keep anonymity while working at the MLB offices? Does everybody in the office just call him Tango too or something?

9:44	Paul Swydan: It’s my understanding that everyone just calls him Tango, yes. Also, I don’t know how that’s remotely anyone’s business but his.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Who cares

9:45	Paul Swydan: Someone did joke at the Winter Meetings that they very much wanted to call him Mr. Tiger, which I thought was funny.

9:45	bob: Who do you think is the next breakout/dominant reliever?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I think it’s you, Bob. I believe in you. Prove me right.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Tyler Thornburg, hopefully.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are already throwing, just look at the K%-BB% leaderboard.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Does Edwin Diaz count? Or did he already break out?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Does Nate Jones count?

9:47	Von Schloss: Who is the next player to get dealt from the White Sox?

9:47	Paul Swydan: I think they’d probably like to move David Robertson sooner than later.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with Robertson especially since Jansen finally signed

9:48	Paul Swydan: Ya, if they can get a good haul for Robertson, they could potentially keep Quintana til July, when they could demand a king’s ransom for him.

9:49	John: Paul… is Jeff a nice guy?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:49	Paul Swydan: Jeff would tell you no, but I know better – Jeff is a big teddy bear.

9:49	Paul Swydan: See, he did say no.

9:50

Jim Lonborg: So we all know that Dombrowski is prioritizing now over the future. But how long is now? How many years do the Sox have before the talent drain starts to catch up with them in a big way? We all know being the best team in the league (ignoring the Cubs question) does not guarantee a pennant.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I think “now” is probably however long they think the tail end of Pedroia’s prime is going to last/when Mookie and Xander hit free agency. Which I think is roughly 2019 on both counts? I have to look up the latter.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, but it seems like the Red Sox have a better talent pipeline and will try to keep it going.

9:51	bob: thank you for having faith in me as a reliever Paul! I actually broke my arm 4 months ago, my cast was on for too long….but now I throw 100! Thinking of trying out to be the Cubs closer….but strike people out with my eephus/slow pitch softball lob

9:52	Paul Swydan: You’ll be rookie of the year. 🙂

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Sid Lynch clone

9:52	Frank Drebin: The 16 Cubs had a good amount of injury luck Schwarber notwithstanding. Am I correct? Also, if you see a group of people in togas in a public park, what’s your response? Asking for a friend….

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Sid Fynch

9:53	Paul Swydan: I believe that is correct. As for the togas question, I’d see if they had any beer. And also make sure I could pick one out that I could beat up, just in case. 🙂

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Their pitchers help it together which is never certain. I would move away from the toga/cult crowd.

9:54	cashman: Do you guys think the yankees should trade gardener and/or headley? Should they open up playing time to see what they have with judge?

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think anyone listed is a guarantee. They will need to find the hot hand in order to win.

9:56	Paul Swydan: I believe RF is already open for Judge, so they don’t need to trade Gardner for that. I’d hang on to Gardner and let Clint Frazier force his way onto the team.

9:56	EbenezerBatflip: Will Rogue One be better or worse than The Force Awakens?

9:57	Paul Swydan: That’s a tall order. I’m going in hopeful, but not that hopeful.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t have a good feel for Rogue one yet

9:58	Chim chimney : Are new age/non competitive gms pushing their players to steal more bases to increase future player value? Or is it just a tactical run producing move ? In your opinion.