FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/22/15

by Paul Swydan

December 22, 2015

9:01	Paul Swydan: HI EVERYBODY!

9:01	Paul Swydan: It’s the last chat of the year, and I’m flying solo because Jeff has a Rotoworld mock draft. Let’s get to it!

9:01	ben: Betts or buxton for rest of career

9:03	Paul Swydan: Definitely Betts. He’s only a year older than Buxton, and already has two productive seasons under his belt. I’m not really bullish on Buxton in general.

9:03	Mets Fan: How excited should I be about Alejandro de Aza?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Not very. It’s a move that doesn’t have much potential for failure – which makes it similar to the Walker and Cabrera moves – but like those moves, it doesn’t have a big chance for success.

9:04	Paul Swydan: It actually has even less chance for success than the infielder moves because De Aza is no longer really qualified to play the outfield.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Sorry, center field.

9:05	ben: How well do you think chapman would do as a starter? I could see an Era below 3

9:06	Paul Swydan: Definitely not, sorry. A) That’d make him one of the best starting pitchers in the game, which is a stretch. B) If even half of the stories about his “work ethic” are true, I doubt he’d be able to handle the more regimented workload that comes with being a starter.

9:06	Jimmy: Why don’t the Indians just go out and sign a free agent or two? They don’t have a major league lineup at this point. Are they that cheap?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I mean, kind of, yeah. It doesn’t help that their past free agent moves have flopped pretty hard (Swisher, Bourn). But they really need to find a center fielder and at least one corner outfielder. Their situation there isn’t really tenable.

9:07	A. Chapman: Whoa Whoa Whoa What are the stories about my “work ethic”?

9:07	Paul Swydan: There was that long profile a couple years back about how much of a chain smoker he is.

9:08	Dave: TB won’t really consider trading a cost-controlled, in-his-prime SP like Odorizzi for hitting, would they?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I mean, there’s plenty to not like about Odorizzi. His K rate was down last year, and he’s never tossed 170 innings in a season. I wouldn’t be opposed to dealing him.

9:10	Dennis: Do you think Arte Moreno comments about the Angels being “probably out” on the big free agent OFs is more of a statement about their current high contract demands or about his lack of intent to spend any more money this winter?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I’d suspect more the former – posturing, and the like.

9:10	Minty: For fantasy, how would you rank equal $ values of 1 year of Sale, 3 of Archer, or 4 of Sonny Gray?

9:11	Paul Swydan: 3 of Archer

9:11	Vic Oden: what are the realistic expectations for Marcus Stroman in an AL only league for 2016 and beyond?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think they’re pretty high. His injury last year wasn’t arm-related.

9:12	Matt: Do the A’s have another move left this offseason, whether it be by trade or free agency (presumably the former)?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, just about every team does. Plenty will happen in January. We’re just pausing for the holidays at this point.

9:12	Trent: Can you tell me why the Tigers had the 2nd pick in the 2004 draft despite having by far the worst record in 2003? They lost 119 games

9:13	Paul Swydan: Huh. No idea! But it all worked out, thanks to the Padres horrible pick.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Did it go AL-NL back then? I don’t remember that…

9:14	Edge O: All has been quiet on the FBI investigation into the Cardinals. Any chance it negatively impacts the product on the field this year?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I sincerely doubt it. I don’t think the FBI has the authority to dock the Cardinals players or anything like that.

9:15	anon: There are a lot of good hitters (spec OF) left on the market and seemingly not enough spaces. Who takes a 1 year deal and comes back in next years weak market? Upton, Davis, Cespedes, Gordon

9:15	Paul Swydan: I don’t think those are the guys who will take one-year deals. The players who will take those deals are the guys like De Aza (he did already!) and Parra, people like that.

9:15	anon: Is there much separation in talent between dodgers, giants and dbacks?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Yes, the Dodgers are still ahead, and until the Dbacks prove they’re not sort of a joke, the Giants get the nod. They’ve been better for much longer.

9:16	Norrin Radd: Who is the worst team in the AL right now?

9:17	Paul Swydan: At this juncture, I’d probably say the Tigers.

9:17	Adam: I’m interested in attending the Caribbean Series this year, but I can’t find out much information about it. Do you know of any resources for information about tickets and the general scene in Santo Domingo?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I don’t, sorry. But going to it is on my bucket list as well!

9:18	dfp: Springsteen or McCartney?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I guess McCartney, but I can’t say I listen to either at all.

9:18	hanna : In another chat today someone said that the A’s could win the west. Any possibility of that on paper?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Well, sure, there’s always a chance. I wouldn’t bank on it, but at this time last year, I didn’t think the Astros and Rangers were going to be good either.

9:19	Jon: If Jose Reyes is guilty, how long do you think MLB suspends him for?

9:20	Paul Swydan: No idea, but I hope it’s at least 50 games. I don’t see much logic in it being shorter than a steroids suspension.

9:20	Theo: Let’s pretend for a moment you’re me – you aren’t, but let’s pretend – are you done for the offseason or do you have another trick up your sleeve?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Thanks for letting me know that I’m not you – I was really confused on that score. As for the offseason, I would probably be trying to fill out the bullpen a little more – but other than that I’d be in extreme listening mode.

9:21	Sam: How would you feel about a Jose Fernandez trade to the Red Sox for Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, and a lotto ticket A-ball guy?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think that’s way too much. I’m not real enamored with the prospect of trading for Jose Fernandez, to be honest.

9:22	LudeBurger: Did I make a mistake in trading deGrom for Rendon in a dynasty? traded from strength to shore up a weakness, but should I have gotten more?

9:23	Paul Swydan: If Rendon is healthy, that’s at the very least an even trade. But I’m not sure I would want to bank on Rendon being healthy, so I probably would have held out for someone who was a bit more reliable.

9:23	The Dude: Can we establish a no Star Wars spoiler rule for this chat?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Don’t worry, I have no interest in being that guy. An old friend of mine had a very big plot point spoiled for her before she saw the movie yesterday – I was crushed for her.

9:24	Josh: Scientists have suggested that the benefits of PED’s may continue long after the player stops taking them and can explain why players like Nelson Cruz haven’t declined as predicted. Do you think there is enough evidence to start taking account of this in our projection systems?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Not even remotely, no.

9:24	TommyLasordid: Maeda likely a Dodger? Seems they’re sitting back waiting for that move. What % likelihood do you give?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, 20%? The Dodgers are hard to read right now.

9:25	Norrin Radd: Outside of MLB and it’s minor leagues, what baseball league interests you the most? (college counts)

9:25	Paul Swydan: I can’t imagine caring about anything else besides whatever league my children end up playing in, but I did enjoy my trip to a Worcester Bravehearts game last year (NECBL).

9:26	Mike Bordick: Someone offered me Betts for Cole. I’ve already got Kershaw/Fernandez but also have McCutchen/Marte. Deal McCutchen for draft picks and take the deal for Betts or stand pat w/ 3 awesome arms?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Well I would certainly take Betts for Cole. But only if you’re going to hang onto McCutchen, I don’t see why you’d trade him.

9:27	jpl: Do you think we’ll see a couple more FAs with a QO in a situation like Morales and Drew where teams aren’t willing to lose the 1st round pick? Is it realistic for any of them to consent to a sign-and-trade to avoid the issue?

9:28	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. Those worked out so poorly for Morales and Drew that I think their agents will find a way for them to be employed by the time spring training opens.

9:28	Trystan: Have you ever got a question on the chat from a real player?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I honestly have no idea. I doubt it, just because we’re usually chatting during the time when players are, you know, playing. But I don’t really check the IP addresses of people who submit questions, so I’d have no idea.

9:29	Al (Rhode Island): Could MLB allow teams to move players under investigation onto the restricted list?

9:30	Paul Swydan: They could, but that would probably set a bad precedent.

9:30	hanna : Do you think the Dodgers sent Kershaw to Cuba to show that he had no problem with Puig?

9:30	Paul Swydan: No, I think it was probably a simple phone call from Torre to Kershaw asking him to do him a favor. I doubt it had it much to do with Puig.

9:31	Sam: How do you feel about a Jose Fernandez trade to the Dodgers for Seager, Montas, Jose de Leon, Alex Verdugo, and a lower level prospect like Zach Lee?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’ll assume you

9:31	Paul Swydan: are joking. That is wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too much.

9:31	Yankees Fan: What the heck are the Yankees doing? are the jays still the team to beat or is it boston now ?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Well, I think it’s probably Boston, but they’re not going to be a lock until we see how Hanley and Sandoval rebound (if at all). I think the Blue Jays and Yankees are on relatively equal footing.

9:33	Sam: How do you feel about a Freddie Freeman trade to the Astros for AJ Reed, Tucker, and Michael Feliz?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Huh, that’s interesting. I have to admit I

9:33	Paul Swydan: Ahh!

9:33	Paul Swydan: I have to admit that I’m not totally up on Astros prospects, but I like the framework of that.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, with Freeman under contract for awhile, and the Braves not REALLY needing to trade him, the Astros would really have to pony up.

9:34	hanna : WHo would you take first in a draft?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Like of all players? Trout.

9:35	Roger: If you had Sano, Bogaerts and Corey Seager in a Keeper League, which one would you deal? 3 players for 2 spots. Would you trade Sano for Mookie Betts?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t deal any of them! Ahhh. Honestly, probably one of the shortstops, just because it’s probably less useful for you to have two shortstops.

9:36	DesetRat: What is the meaning of life?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Baseball. Baseball is life.

9:36	hanna : do you look at the questions in the queue?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Is that a trick question? Yeah, of course. It’s not automated.

9:37	Pike: Can Harper repeat in ’15?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Probably not, there’s only nine days left in the year.

9:39	Paul Swydan: (Yes – he can be this good for a long time.)

9:39	hanna : Do you like the FOX decision to promote SMoltz to do play by play with Buck, Ousting Reynolds and Verducci?

9:40	Paul Swydan: So, there’s two separate decisions. One, the decision to go from a three-man booth to a two-man booth, which I really like. I loathe three-man booths!

9:41	Paul Swydan: But two, I don’t really like Smoltz. I rarely learn anything from him. On the other hand, I wasn’t a huge Reynolds or Verducci fan either, so I guess this is a net positive. But I’m certainly not blown away.

9:41	Phil: How did you first become interested in baseball?

9:41	Paul Swydan: From my dad. And also video games.

9:42	Conscious Reality: Where do you stand on all the recent [non-sensical should go without saying] talk like “Fernandez for 5 plus-prospects, rable-rable” or “Carrasco for Puig, rable-rable” or “Archer for Seager, rable-rable” that FG has been fostering the last few weeks [see Fagerstrom, et al]??

9:43	Paul Swydan: I have grown less and less thrilled with the constant trade rumors. But that’s our job, and I’d rather have questions I don’t love than no questions at all!

9:43	hanna : I sent that before the chat started, when it asked to start to fill the queue. I was wondering if you looked back at all the questions piled up (if there were any).

9:44	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, I usually start with the first questions asked, and then work my way up and down from there.

9:44	Dave: Ozuna for Bauer seems to make perfect sense — FL needs SP, CLE needs OFs. Both still fairly young, high upside, cost-controlled. Who says no? Which team would have to chip in a minor leaguer or two to make it work?

9:45	Paul Swydan: Hmm. I think that is actually a pretty good trade. The Indians need an outfielder, and the Marlins seem less than enamored with Ozuna, so even though it’s a net loss for them, they might just do that.

9:45	Chris: 78 wins for the Royals in 2016? Come on!

9:45	Paul Swydan: Don’t hate us!

9:45	hanna : Will Trout ever be as valuable as he was because his stolen base numbers have gone down? Or is taking the extra base still valuable enough? Will Trout ever steal again or is Albert stopping that from happening?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I don’t think Pujols is stopping Trout from doing or being anything.

9:46	Dr Evil: Is the SABR community doing a poor job assessing variance when looking at deals or trades? Seems like everything is cast in a mean projection, aggregate or rate stat and not much attention is given to the range of outcomes in those #’s

9:47

Paul Swydan: So, this is a tough question. On the one hand, we may be. On the other hand, I think some of this is implicit, and if you’re always couching things with vague language that there are a multitude of possible outcomes, you would tend to have a lot of long, drawn out copy that people wouldn’t be thrilled about reading.

9:47	Chris: Is this a veritable Hate the algorithm, not the player-type situation?

9:48	Paul Swydan: With the Royals? A little bit, yes. But they also did lose Cueto, Zobrist and Gordon, and haven’t really replaced them. Yet.

9:48	Phil: How do you deal with non-industry friends asking you for inside info?

9:48	Paul Swydan: My friends are smart enough to know that I don’t have any inside info. 🙂

9:49

Phil: Do you ever find that as a fan you are conflicted to have to treat someone like Pujols as an albatross contract? He is a historically great hitter whose lower body health has faded fast and he sensibly took the most money on the table… but I feel like many view him with a relative lack of respect anymore given he simply cannot live up to his contract. It’s a shame how money-driven our view is sometimes. Being able to witness 2000’s Pujols should be treasured by people.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I mean, sort of. But more than that, it’s mostly annoying that he’s bad now.

9:51	Paul Swydan: More than that, it’s annoying that he’s ruining Trout’s prime.

9:52	Brad: Loathe more? 3 man booths or stl Cardinals or joe maddon?

9:52	Paul Swydan: 3-man booths. But Maddon is close. I don’t really hate the Cardinals.

9:52	Dr Evil: How would you feel about a CBA change where you can only pick in the top 5 one out of every 3 years to not incentivize slashing and burning as a rebuild strategy.

9:54	Paul Swydan: That’s an interesting idea. I’d have to go back and see how often teams pick in the top five in consecutive years to see if it has truly been a huge problem in the past.

9:54	hanna : Was that sarcastic about Pujols ruining Trouts career?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Not really. The Angels are tied to his contract, and if it wasn’t for that contract, they could be signing someone awesome. Like, this offseason, they could have signed Heyward, for instance. How cool would a Heyward-Trout-Calhoun outfield have been?

9:57	Phil: I know a win is a win…. but doesn’t it feel like a better strategy for the O’s to gain another ~4 WAR via Kazmir + re-signing Pearce or Parra over C. Davis? I guess it is a lower ceiling, but having enough roster to not trot out a AAAA OF or DH seems better to me. But, maybe that’s just bias.

9:58	Paul Swydan: The Kazmir+Pearce/Parra route is probably how I would go if I was them, yes.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Assuming these were my only two options, of course.

9:58	Daro: Will Conforto be the middle of the lineup guy that the Mets needs?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure he’s a prototypical 30 home run guy, but I think that in general he can provide the offense that the team needs, yes.

9:59	Question for you: Any thoughts on a minimum and maximum cap that escalates upward each year?