FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/17/15

by Paul Swydan

February 17, 2015

5:36	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET. Before you ask about us Kiley’s prospect list, let me remind you that he did a chat this afternoon: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… See you soon!

9:02	Comment From Mets Fan It’s 9:01! You’re late

9:02	Comment From Mets Fan It’s 9:02!! YOURE LATE!! LOUD NOISES

9:02	Comment From Mets Fan BASEBALL IS BACK TOMORROW!!

9:02	Paul Swydan: MY COMPUTER SAYS 9:01. And no, baseball is most definitely NOT back tomorrow.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:03	Comment From Swan Ronson The guy who owns Xander Boegarts in my 7×7 (standard 5 plus OBP and SLG) has essentially given up on him. I’m in position to win it all this year, and don’t really need him to do that, but could really use him in 2016 and beyond. How aggressive should I be to get him?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I would be pretty aggressive, but not at the expense of your championship roster.

9:04	Comment From Forsyth Breaking News!! Pablo Sandoval is hefty! Let’s all act like this is some kind of unexpected outcome because he has obviously been so skinny his entire career!! Cue the ridiculous spring training stories already.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I would prefer to NOT cue them, but maybe I’m just a dreamer.

9:05	Comment From Gila Monster As a Red Sox “fan”(despite being emotionally disconnected), it is odd I would rather have Shields’s contract than Sandoval’s? It seems like the marginal value is greater and possibly a old Shields will be better than a 1B playing Sandoval.…

9:05	Paul Swydan: Jeff is having some connectivity issues, FYI.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I think it is a little odd. I am not sure that Sandoval will be productive in five years, but I am comfortable saying that Shields will definitely not be productive in five years.

9:06	Comment From Guest If Vazquez ends up being an elite framer like BP’s latest number suggest, would would be more comfortable with Vazquez or Swihart? BP is suggesting Vazquez could be worth 3ish WAR on franing alone. If that is accurate, wouldn’t you end

9:08

Paul Swydan: This question sort of cuts off, but I think I get the gist. While I think the work by Judge/Brooks/Pavlidis is good stuff, I’m not going to bank on Vazquez being that good after half a season. So I wouldn’t be able to make that determination any time soon. In the meantime, let’s not bury Swihart before he gets a chance. Also, there’s no reason why the two of them can’t just job share.

9:08	Comment From Pale Hose Would you rather be the Braves/Diamondbacks combined roster or the Red Sox? They are roughly equal by depth chart WAR.

9:09	Paul Swydan: That’s interesting. I think the Red Sox, because the Dbacks and Braves basically have their best player at the same position (first base). Perhaps if the Braves/Dbacks was an AL team it’d be a tougher question.

9:10	Comment From Vic Any strong preference between Starlin and Kole Calhoun over the course of the next 3 years. I can keep one of them in a 5 x 5 16 team league.

9:11

Paul Swydan: I think Calhoun is the better hitter, and currently has the clearer path to playing time. So for now, I’d have to say him. But if you think that either Castro or Addison Russell is going to get dealt, or at the very least want to bank on that, then I think keeping Castro is defensible, because he plays the scarcer position.

9:11	Comment From Roiste22 Who are your picks for the player with the most negative WAR next year

9:11	Paul Swydan: If Jordan Pacheco makes the Dbacks, he’s an easy pick.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I see no reason you can’t keep both, but Castro may have playing time issues as the cub prospects come up.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think the Dbacks are strong bets to have a negative WAR player at catcher.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Moustakas

9:12	Paul Swydan: The honeymoon from the World Series run is over, folks!

9:12	Comment From Guest McCutchen is also an MVP writer. How would you resolve the issue of low income kids and baseball? Would you pay more too lower draftees? Make baseball scholarships more abundant/visable? Establish more academies in the US.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Speed test

9:14

Paul Swydan: Look, we could spend a whole chat – multiple whole chats – on just this topic. There is a lot that MLB could do. The very first thing would be to pump legitimate resources into the RBI programs and the MLB Youth Academies that they have in places like Houston and LA. They could work with cities to build more baseball parks, and make them cost effective for kids to play at. We could go on and on and on.

9:15

Paul Swydan: Ultimately, nothing will change until players like McCutchen call his employers – be it MLB or high-profile sponsors – to the mat and hold them accountable. Right now, MLB spends token sums on their programs. Amounts that are negligible to the bottom line, and that when spread out across the country have very little impact, but still look good on a press release.

9:16

Paul Swydan: No one is more at fault for baseball’s dip in popularity among African-Americans than baseball itself. A lot of it is marketing too. Football markets its stars. The NBA spent a whole generation putting Jordan and Shaq on TV 10-20 times a season before the playoffs even started. That makes a difference. Baseball does nothing of the sort.

9:17	Paul Swydan: In any case, I’m not holding my breath on any sort of positive change, but I loved McCutchen’s article at Player’s Tribune.

9:17	Paul Swydan: And that “speed test” from Jeff was to indicate he is still having connectivity issues.

9:17	Comment From Current Husky As a NEU undergrad and a BU law student, Life is confusing. But Adam Ottovino has taken the seat of awesomeness from Carlos Pena from NEU, but BU’s hockey team is just silly good.

9:18	Paul Swydan: For the record, in the Beanpot final, you need to root for Northeastern. Undergrad always trumps grad school in head to head matchups.

9:18

Comment From Billy
A question in reality and fantasy. I ended up with both Norris and Vogt on my team last year in a very deep MLB keeper league. I assumed I would keep Norris and cast Vogt adrift. It strikes me now though that Vogt might have a fine couple of years ahead to rival Jaso’s peak, while Norris’s good few months last year may have been a fluke. Is this why Norris was exiled to SD? Should I dump him too?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that I buy Vogt being that good, so of the two I would hang onto Norris.

9:19	Comment From Guest Are you going to the Beanpot Final/need a ticket

9:20	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, I doubt it. I really don’t have any desire to set foot inside the city right now, especially with the train the way it is. I don’t like parking near the Garden, I prefer to train it in, but the train is a goddamn joke right now, so….

9:21	Comment From Minty What’s the dynasty difference between Polanco and Springer?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I think the difference is that I’m not sure Polanco escapes that Alex Gordon friend zone of being better in real life than fantasy life, whereas I think Springer is good for a good Mike Cameron impression (HRs and SBs with bad BA) at the very least.

9:22	Comment From zwibi Curious on your thoughts about CarGo this year. Is he going to stay healthy or are his best days behind him?

9:22	Paul Swydan: He’s a stay away for me until I see how the knee responds. I have heard some horror stories.

9:22	Comment From Jimbo Hey fellas, hopefully you can give me some insight. 20 team H2H dynasty with 20 keepers. R. Zimmerman and Semien for Reyes. Which side do you prefer? Thanks.

9:23	Paul Swydan: In a 20 team league, you want depth, but it’s hard to find elite talent, and if you subscribe to the notion that Reyes is still that kind of talent, then I think this is a no-brainer.

9:23	Paul Swydan: I don’t believe in Zimmerman staying upright and I don’t believe in Semien being able to log a whole season of playing time.

9:24	Comment From Frank Sobotka Who do you like more over the next 4 years, Chris Sale or Marcus Stroman?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I have to choose? I guess Sale, but it’s close.

9:24	Comment From Los Which would you prefer. A team with a preseason 10% chance to win the world series or a team in Game 7 of the world series down in the bottom of the 9th such that they have a 10% W/E? Is one more variable than the other or is 10% = 10% no matter what.

9:25	Paul Swydan: As someone who watched the Rockies come back from down two runs in the bottom of the 13th of a do or die game, I’ll take the latter option.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Test

9:25	Paul Swydan: I see it, Jeff.

9:26	Comment From Cardinal Shark In a 2-catcher NL-only keeper, I can keep two of Posey, Tulo, Harper, and Billy Hamilton for the upcoming season. What would you advise? Thanks!

9:27

Paul Swydan: Jeff is still having issues.

As for Cardinal Shark (great name btw), I think you have to keep Tulo and Posey.

You HAVE to keep Tulo. And in the Posey vs. Harper battle, Posey has a good chance of being just as good, and when you factor in the positional stuff, I think that clinches it. I wouldn’t sweat Hamilton.

9:27

Comment From Tony Roma
Hey guys. I’m in an 11-team AL-only league where we have more keepers than ever this year. To give you an example, Drew Smyly will be the #5 best SP available, and will likely go for $25. I am the biggest Smyly fan and yet I think that’s way too much to pay for him. So I ask you, in such a case is Smyly worth it because of the scarcity, or is my best bet to allocate the $25 elsewhere? Thanks.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Allocate it elsewhere.

9:28	Comment From Brandon Moss Should we be worried about my offseason surgery? If not, any chance I’m primed to have a huge season?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, test again

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: It worked

9:29	Paul Swydan: Definitely worried about it, but Cleveland’s ballpark should be much better for you, and I can see – not a breakout season, but a better season than last year – if you stay healthy.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Moss going into this season. I expect more of the same.

9:29	Comment From Park Chan hos Beard Im pessimistic about the rockies in 2015. you have them as your sleeper team, but im not buying it. but kiley’s way bullish on most of their prospects, and if they could get a windfall for a healthy tulo, the future might be looking pretty bright, but probably not

9:30	Paul Swydan: The problem is part what Cameron has been beating the drum on – teams that don’t do much look like they had bad offseasons. The problem is also partly that they can’t win without Tulo and CarGo. That is the bed they made. But they definitely have the talent to win.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: For them to take the next step this year, ALL the pitching prospects will need to pan out and Tulo and Cargo will need to play 300 games combined

9:31	Comment From Brandon If you had to rank the baseball prospects for a dynasty league, roughly where do you think Odor would rank if he were eligible? Found it interesting, ZIPs projected Betts for a 104 OPS and Odor for 100 and Odor is 16 months younger.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Yeah I like Odor. He’d probably slot into the top 50-60 prospects, but that really is a better question for Kiley.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. 100 to 200 if I include the other prospects 25 and under.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s a good point Jeff.

9:33	Comment From bearproof what would the Rockies projections look like if Tulo and Cargo played 300 games EACH?

9:33	Paul Swydan: https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: It would be about 4 years worth of projections

9:34	Comment From bearproof am i crazy to think Hanley is a late third rounder at best this year?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, if things fall right, he could be a first round talent.

9:34	Paul Swydan: No, not really. His ADP right now on Mock Draft Central is 43.42.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Earliest is pick 27.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Having said that, I’m in BIG on Hanley this year.

9:35	Comment From YAY ZITO IS BACK!!! A’S GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES

9:35	Paul Swydan: Can Zito do the Bernie Lean???

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Zito needs to hang it up

9:36	Comment From Evan How do you feel about Joc Pederson in an obp league where I can play matchups?

9:37	Paul Swydan: I feel pretty good about that.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: I like him long term, but I think he may struggle this season.

9:37	Comment From Matt Im in a keeper league and i have to pick 3 from blackmon, dickerson and daniel murphy at $8 each, scherzer at $24, price at $20 or bumgarner at $20, who should i keep?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Dickerson, Bumgarner and … Price

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I might just role with the pitchers.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Or, roll, perhaps.

9:38	Comment From Mitch How soon do you think Manfred will implement game-quickening measures? Next season? Also, think he will engage fan opinions more on this issue? I seem to recall Bud Selig favoring a more “top-down” approach to changes like the wild card play-in.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think this year is a moratorium period, and we’re going to hear about changes for 2016 when the playoffs start.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I agree with Paul

9:39	Paul Swydan: I don’t expect Manfred to incorporate any fan opinions.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably owner opinions though

9:40	Comment From G Money Can Arrieta get to 200 innings this year? Or do his injuries of the past concern you?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I think he can break through to 200 innings, but Jeff knows better than I do.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the 200 is within reach, but the breaking ball usage has me scared off.

9:41	Comment From Matt Noticed this year all the reputable prospect sites(fg, ba, bp, mlb, Klaw) staggered the release of top prospect list. Is this a coordinated effort amongst industry friends so as not to step one toes or just purely coincidental?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Not on our part it isn’t. I would vote for coincidental. The only one consistent people are Keith and BA. I think the rest of us just finish when we finish.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I think coincidence.

9:42	Comment From Joe 5 years ago my team was owned by Frank Mccourt and the GM was Ned Colletti, today my team is owned by Guggenheim and run by Andrew Friedman.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Oh indeed.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: At least it isn’t owned by David Glass and run by Dayton Moore

9:43	Comment From dgrussel So the Orioles and their stingy ways are pretty much screwed after this season, given Chris Davis, Wieters, and to a lesser extent Pearce are all free agents, and they have a hodgepodge OF as it is. Is this their last year of fighting in the AL East for awhile?

9:44

Paul Swydan: Couple points here.

1. You’re underestimating Dan Duquette. Has to be said.
2. Are we sure Wieters is worth breaking the bank for? I’m not.
3. I’m definitely skeptical of giving Davis big money. I’m not sure the O’s will miss him at all. They sure didn’t need him to get to the postseason last year.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: They could have some extensions and their is some decent pitching in the minors. Also, the rest of the AL isn’t lighting the world on fire

9:45	Comment From Andy5 Thoughts on Michael Saunders this year? I kind of like him in Toronto.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Yeah I think that is a good fit for him. The Mariners seem to focus on what their players do poorly, instead of what they do well. Perhaps Saunders just needed the change of pace.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I am kind of at a wait and see. Could be a nice pick up

9:46	Comment From Andy5 In an auction, how much of your total payroll are you willing to spend on one player? Let’s say that player is Mike Trout.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: 20% I like to have all my players between $5 and $20. Even approach instead of Stars and Scrubs.

9:48

Paul Swydan: It’s an impossible question to answer. Can you get a lot of sleeper players for cheap, or is your league full of guys who know those guys and are going to bump up your bids? Do you have an active league, or do guys sit on their hands all year? Finally, I find that when I put limits on stuff like that I miss out on guys I really want, so I don’t put a limit on it.

9:48	Comment From Barry Zito Zimmerman needs to hang it up! I’M BACK BABY!!

9:48	Paul Swydan: Ya, JEFF.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: No problem.

9:49	Paul Swydan: You had a good run, buddy.

9:49	Comment From Frank Sobotka In a standardish size league (~24-25 players), what’s your typical breakdown between hitting and pitching? 10/15? 12/13? Say there are 1 or 2 UTIL spots.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Usually 13 hitters and 9 or 10 pitchers. I usually budget 70% hitters and 30% pitchers

9:51	Paul Swydan: My home league is 5×5. Here’s the breakdown: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL So, 9 required position players vs 7 pitchers, and then 7 bench spots to fill how you see fit.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Though I will readily admit that my league is non-standard.

9:51	Comment From Guest Why do red sox fans come to fangraphs and muck up the boards with homeristic nonsense

9:52	Paul Swydan: Because it’s been snowing for THREE WEEKS STRAIGHT and we’re just trying to stave off cabin fever long enough to not go on a four town killing spree?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Well, Paul is in charge and picks the questions. You think?

9:53	Comment From Frank Sobotka Any insight into why some teams seem to have better medical staffs than other ones? Not just baseball–for example, the Phoenix Suns have a great staff. Others (thinking of the Mets) are really bad. Is this an institutional thing?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think some teams are just more on the ball than the others. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Warriors now end up with better medical personnel now that Steve Kerr has relocated there.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Some of it is risk they take on. The White Sox are crazy good at it and they won’t say a word.

9:54	Comment From Matheus Batistussi If they change the strike zone again, doesn’t it would make the games slower than now due to more hits and walks?

9:55	Paul Swydan: It might, ya.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really. Hopefully there is more action with hits.

9:56	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t be as worried about that. I would be more worried about calling the rulebook strike zone.

9:56	Comment From Guest Will the snow be melted in Boston by late March, or should I cancel my trip

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say there is a 0.0% chance of that happening, but the city should certainly be back in swing by then. I wouldn’t anticipate you having any problems by then.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Once it melts, you will need to deal with the flooding.

9:56	Paul Swydan: QUIET JEFF!

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: just saying

9:57	Comment From Paul Swydan The refs are biased against the Patriots.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Ya but it doesn’t matter anymore.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Hopefully

9:58	Comment From Kubo Crab Thoughts on Jorge Soler and do you project for him this season?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I expect good results, but I think the hype is getting too much around him (and the rest of the Cubbies).

9:59	Paul Swydan: I like Soler a lot. I think it’s a little harder to peg his playing time with Alcantara, Fowler and Coghlan also in the outfield mix, but hopefully he nets 650 PA, and if he does, I like him for 25+ homers.

9:59	Comment From Icarus The Nationals probably are keeping all of their pitchers at this point, no?