FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/18/14

by Paul Swydan

February 18, 2014

5:58	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I am flying solo tonight because Jeff has his Ottoneu draft, but join me at 9 pm ET and we’ll talk snow and baseball and snow and basesnow and snowballs and snowsnowsnow. And baseball! See you soon!

9:01	Paul Swydan: One second.

9:03	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this

9:03	Comment From Everythings Coming Up Milhouse For deep AL leagues, who are some under the radar relievers to target?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Cody Allen for sure. Danny Farquhar for another. Junichi Tazawa I like.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Probably others. Someone on the Angels for sure.

9:04	Comment From Everythings Coming Up Milhouse How much should Ubaldo go for in a standard AL auction league? How about in a keeper league where Lester is being held for $15?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’d be weary of him in standard leagues, because he will need to adjust to AL East and new ballpark. In a keeper league, specifically that keeper league, somewhere from $10-13.

9:05	Comment From Everything is Awesome Lego Movie: Suprisingly clever and funny, or tedious 90-minute product placement?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Suprisingly clever and awesome. We took my son. It was his first movie. He loved it. “Daddy, that’s the Star Wars LEGOS.” So proud.

9:05	Comment From A Tribe Called Kipnis What has been your biggest disagreement with Jeff on evaluating a player?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Of the ones I can actually remember? BJ Upton last year. Jeff was right, for the record. Jeff is usually right.

9:07	Comment From A Tribe Called Kipnis Which of the late, late round 1Bs is the best play?

9:07	Paul Swydan: If you count Brandon Moss, that’s a good one. Belt a bit better than Moss. After that, I’d gamble on Teixeira. Never know.

9:07	Comment From Edge O Ubaldo still needs to pass a physical and he’s has an injury history. Does Duquette blow this up too and permanently maim the O’s reputation with free agents for all time?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think he will, but if he does, then yes. He will.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Those familiar with the Duke know that this is not his first rodeo with injury related issues. There was a big dust up with John Valentin and a knee surgery once upon a time.

9:09	Comment From Os Nos What hitter who will start the year as a bench player is the best bet to take a full-time job by May 15?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Man, that’s a tough one. I’ll happily take suggestions.

9:09	Comment From Mr Wonderful! So Jimenez is an Oriole. My contention that this makes no sense unless they go after Kendrys Morales. What say you?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Would much rather see them try and trade for a right fielder and cut Markakis. Urrutia should be fine as a DH, but Markakis is awful.

9:10	Comment From Hershey from Jersey Keep Chris Archer for $8 in a deep AL league?

9:10	Paul Swydan: ABSOLUTELY.

9:10	Comment From Jacoby Derek Jeter. Obviously a first ballot Hall of Fame guy. But was he ever the best player on his team? Or the best guy in the league at his position at one time?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Well, he did win MVP that one time, so…

9:11	Paul Swydan: I mean, you’re splitting hairs there. He played on an incredible team, and he played during a great era for shortstops. Whether he was best or second-best is largely semantics, because he was always near the top at both.

9:11	Comment From Guest The idiots on WEEI thought Henry Owens would be a starting point on a David Price trade….what a bunch of idiots

9:12	Paul Swydan: Not a starting point for sure, but he’d be an attractive chip in any package for him if the Sox and Rays wanted to seriously discuss that.

9:12	Comment From Hershey from Jersey How does the Yankees’ 2B and 3B shake out once Brian Roberts goes on the DL in the March?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Poorly. Which is about as well as it is going to work out if he’s healthy.

9:13	Comment From Joe What’s the first year that you think Profar overtakes Kinsler in fantasy value?

9:13	Paul Swydan: 2015 at the latest.

9:13

Comment From here goes nothing
Question: If Moneyball 1.0 was about finding a holistic measure of a player’s contribution on the field, what will Moneyball 2.0 be about? For funsies, my bet is on what I’m calling “interaction effects”–everything that is how a player fits with his environment. Think platoons that place players in a position to succeed; matching pitchers with defenses and even parks; etc. Look forward to your thoughts!

9:14

Paul Swydan: You’re essentially talking psychological effects, because a big part of platoons is how the players react to them. I don’t disagree with that necessarily, but I’m not sure you can put humans in that specific a box like that, even if you have access to frequent psychological tests of each player, which the teams obviously won’t.

9:15	Comment From .500 Will the Phillies finish passed me?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so no, but they might brush up against your sundress a few times.

9:15	Comment From Joe In a vacuum, would you trade Price for Gerrit Cole and Rizzo in a keeper league? All 3 are cheap.

9:16	Paul Swydan: If all three are cheap, then no. No reason to trade Price if he’s cheap. I love Cole, but Price is still more established, and I’m not sold at all on Rizzo.

9:16	Comment From Guest Is there a free version of ottoneu?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. But it is worth the money, in my humble opinion.

9:18	Comment From Edge O Homers are now at a premium. He may not be what he used to be but what do you expect out of Pujols?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I expect him to be a mid-tier first baseman, with the chance of being a top five first baseman.

9:19	Comment From Edge O Now that the O’s have signed a QO player should they sign Drew for the same reason the Yanks should. Play 2B this year and SS insurance should Hardly leave?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I don’t think I would sign Drew to play second base at this juncture. It’s a much more difficult transition than the transition to third base is, and now that he’s lost the whole winter to learn the new position, it would be even more difficult.

9:20	Comment From Vic 10 team AL Only, 2nd yr of 5. 5 x 5. Keeping Profar at 13, Machado at 17, Bogaerts at 7, and Miller at 7? Should I also keep Elvis at 27 just to corner the SS market in this league?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Nope, let Andrus go. 27 would be too much even if he hadn’t shit the bed offensively last year.

9:21	Comment From Vic Does Colby Rasmus have a season or two of 30 HRs in him?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think so, but I wouldn’t bank on it in any way.

9:21	Comment From Vic Who might be a Brad Miller 2013 player to draft in the 34th round of a 15 teamer this year? Someone close to a full time role but not a really hyped prospect. I am thinking Stephen Piscotty? Anyone else?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, to be fair, I think Brad Miller was hyped last year. I drafted him heading into 2013 in one league and stashed him. Piscotty isn’t an awful choice, but I don’t see him having a clear avenue to a job.

9:23	Paul Swydan: I think Hak-Ju Lee is one. Christian Bethancourt, though I don’t know if he’ll hit. Vincent Velasquez. Jon Singleton is a good one as well.

9:24	Comment From Vic Do you think Ernesto Frieri keeps his job for the duration of the season?

9:24	Paul Swydan: No, I do not.

9:24	Comment From Joe Maikel Franco–ETA and what to expect in 2014?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Second half. Low OBP, high SLG. Good enough AVG.

9:24	Comment From Joe Deep league–heard some Twitter rumblings on Vaughn Bryan (OF-STL), that he could vault up some top 100 lists next year. Thoughts?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Haven’t heard of him, but seems like he’ll need to hit pretty well. He didn’t do poorly or anything, but a 20-year-old with a 113 wRC+ in rookie ball isn’t enough to make me say WOW.

9:25	Comment From F U Jobu Is Ryan Raburn relevant to the Tribe at all this year?

9:25	Paul Swydan: He is absolutely relevant.

9:25	Comment From F U Jobu Can you see Justin Maxwell as a 4th OF role this year?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I see that as exactly his role. Both Gordon and Aoki hit left-handed, which means plenty of opportunities for Maxwell to shine. Jarrod Dyson as fifth outfielder.

9:27	Comment From Toby How much stock can be put in Giambi’s absurd leverage splits from last year? 48 wrc+ low leverage, 102 medium, 178 high. At what point do we consider it a skill, rather than a product of sample size?

9:28

Paul Swydan: I’ll say this — when he started this pinch-hit parade in Colorado, I always expected him to come through with the game on the line. He’s basically the rich-man’s version of Matt Stairs. Of course, at a certain point, Stairs couldn’t hit anymore, and Giambi will get there as well, so I don’t think I’d put a ton of stock in it going forward.

9:28	Comment From Park Chan hos Beard According to the coolstandings page, the Rockies currently have a 23.5% of making the playoffs. If they hadn’t made some of their stupider moves this offseason (namely the Fowler trade/Morneau signing), how much would that have improved their odds, realistically?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Probably by about 5% or so.

9:28	Paul Swydan: It was a pretty big swing.

9:28	Comment From Jamaican Bobsled Team That player profile game is maddening

9:28	Paul Swydan: It is. But it is a lot of fun too!

9:29	Comment From Mike Who do you prefer of these two East Coast prospects, Bundy or Giolito?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Probably Bundy.

9:29	Comment From jb Mitch Moreland numbers if traded to the Pirates? Trade likely?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I don’t think that trade is likely. Ike Davis is a better bet.

9:29	Comment From The old Professor Jose Daniel Abreu a legit 30/100 /850 OPS guy?

9:30	Paul Swydan: There’s a decent shot that he is, yes. I’m not banking on him doing it this year, but the upside is there.

9:30	Comment From Jake DEAN ANNA

9:30	Paul Swydan: This was the bench player who becomes a starter question. That’s a good one.

9:31	Comment From Grand Admiral Braun Mount Rushmore of Baseball: Go!

9:31	Paul Swydan: No. Baseball is too good to boil down to four people. Getting tired of these anyway. Basketball is the only sport where you can boil it down.

9:31	Comment From m_pemulis Marcell Ozuna/Nick Franklin or Alex Meyer/Dayan Viciedo in ottoneu SABR?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Punt? Ozuna/Franklin probably more talent, but not sure where Franklin is going to play, so probably Meyer side.

9:32	Comment From Joe What’s your second favorite sport? I’m assuming baseball is number one, obviously.

9:32	Paul Swydan: ‘Tis. Basketball.

9:32	Comment From Al Gore All this snow in Mass is your fault. Your carbon foot print is too large..

9:32	Paul Swydan: Suck it, Al.

9:33	Comment From Joe Any guesses on the two “mystery teams” in on Drew?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Tigers, Royals, Astros, Braves, Phillies, Pirates, Reds, Brewers?

9:35	Comment From Jake OH SHIT SWYDAN WITH THE MAD VP BURN YA’LL

9:35	Paul Swydan: Hahaha.

9:35	Comment From jb Maikel Franco or Kris Bryant?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Bryant for long-term, but Franco for this year.

9:35	Comment From Scott Does Samardzija cut down his HR/9 and H/9 like Steamer thinks he will?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’d like to think so, yes. He seems like he’s been more unfortunate than he should have been, particularly in the second half of last year.

9:36	Comment From Joe What’s your projection system of choice?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Steamer

9:36	Comment From The old Professor Greg Holland or Trevor Rosenthal?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Don’t make me choose!

9:36	Paul Swydan: Holland. But I love them both.

9:37	Comment From The old Professor Belt or Craig in a 12 team 8 keeper league?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Belt. Craig is older and can’t stay healthy and has more legit competition for playing time.

9:37	Comment From mnam Has anyone ever tried to estimate plate discipline stats for pre-2002 players?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure, but I’d certainly be interesting in seeing this if they did.

9:38	Comment From JTOP Is EE’s wrist going to be okay?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I sure hope so.

9:38	Comment From Jaack More Stupid Jeter glorification: Jeter should have the 5 year hall of fame requirement waived or Jeter is beter than Honus Wagner.

9:38	Paul Swydan: The Honus Wagner part.

9:39	Paul Swydan: We hear the “waive the five-year period” all the time, because writers are lazy and don’t want to have to wait five years to write their easy puff pieces.

9:39	Comment From JTOP Ceiling for Calhoun?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Top 30 outfielder

9:39	Comment From Bill Cameron mentioned on fangraphs audio that Teheran is a slight regression candidate–does this check out fully looking at age curves

9:39	Paul Swydan: Dave has definitely spent more time looking at this than I have, so I’m inclined to trust his opinion on this one.

9:39	Comment From Sonny Rank these SP. Porcello, Gray, Parker, Kluber and Wood.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Long term? Gray (be it Sonny or Jon), Porcello, Kluber, Parker, Wood This year, probably bump Gray to #3.

9:41	Comment From jon What is the best baseball book you’ve ever read? best book in general?

9:42	Paul Swydan: My favorite all-time book is The Stand or LOTR trilogy. Best baseball book? Standard answer is The Teammates, but darkhorse answer is “We Could Have Finished Last Without You.”

9:42	Paul Swydan: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/771355.We_Could_ve_Finished_Last_Without_You

9:43	Comment From Bmiltenberg I can keep Harvey at no cost in a 10-team keep 4 league for one more year after this one…..I’m assuming I can’t but please reassure me. (Would do puig, choo, werth and cingrani/rosenthal

9:43	Paul Swydan: I would be willing to drop Werth in order to keep Harvey, unless you’re gunning for a title this year.

9:44	Comment From Bmiltenberg Is ryu a regression candidate? In mocks I believe he falls far just because his rotation mates are more noteworthy. Great numbers at his ADP, thought he was maybe a flash in the pan later year but find myself targeting him now

9:44	Paul Swydan: If he drops far enough in standard 5×5 leagues, I’d pop him, but he doesn’t get enough Ks for me to draft him high at all, and I do think he is a regression candidate.

9:45	Paul Swydan: For instance, I could have got him for $6 in a $220 cap league last year as a keeper, and I didn’t.

9:45	Comment From Guest Who has the better season. Hosmer or Craig?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Hosmer, but it’ll be close.

9:46	Comment From E5 who will the Jays get for second base? they cannt really stay with Goins right

9:46	Paul Swydan: It certainly seems like they’re going with him. Mike Petriello is writing this up at FG for tomorrow, FWIW. Look for that.

9:46	Comment From Jake Did the O’s get Jiminez for the ~single win he adds, or because they had to make at least one acquisition this offseason to appease the Baltimore media/fans?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Both probably, but their 5th SP slot could be pretty bad even with Ubaldo, so I think it was certainly the right call.

9:47	Comment From Bill In mocks so far youve liked your team in the end drafting from ___. Youve disliked them most from ____

9:47	Paul Swydan: Well, I have only done one mock, and I drafted 16th out of 18, and I liked what I got. My first two picks were Stanton and Longo. Not too shabby!

9:48	Comment From Jake Will Frank Underwood’s mighty empire start to collapse, like some sort of structure that takes a long time to build but easily collapses?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I don’t know who Frank Underwood is, but I like a good empire collpase, so I vote yes.

9:48

Comment From Gila Monster
Since our mutual hate of BC, I’m in a 12 team mixed where R/HR/RBI/OBP/SLG/nSB are our offensive categories. Is Votto or Harper/Tulo or HanRam the best first 2 round targets? Granted power it overvalued and SB undervalued due to the lack of high OBP/SLG/nSB combined guys….outside Trout. I imagine SS talent kills in this league/.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Votto and Harper and Tulo yes, Hanley no. I don’t trust that he’ll stay healthy. I don’t really trust it with Tulo either, but I’m a bigger believer in Tulo’s bat than I am Hanley’s.

9:49	Comment From Ryan The Braves this year remind me of the Indians extending Hafner, Sizmore, Westbrook and Carmona. Will the Braves’ extensions fare better?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I think they’d almost have to by default.

9:50	Comment From Joe Is Buchholz worth keeping for $1 with a $260 budget? I get 8 keepers and I’m stacked, so I’m torn.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Hard to say without seeing the rest of your roster from an “only keep 8 standpoint” but from a cost standpoint, absolutely.

9:50	Comment From Ryan Would Chris Capuano be an actual upgrade for the Mariners?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:51	Comment From Vic Please rank as a MI,,,,,Elvis, Pedroia, Altuve.

9:51	Paul Swydan: In fantasy? Pedroia …. gap … Altuve, Andrus. In reality? Pedroia, Andrus …. big gap … Altuve

9:51	Comment From joseph Who’s your favorite FG writer? Both as a person and a writer.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I don’t want to play favorites, come on now.

9:52	Comment From Guest Would you rather draft Kipnis or Pedroia?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I think they’re pretty equal, so I’d personally rather draft Pedroia because I am going to watch him play 130 times or so this year anyway.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I think I’d MAYBE lean Kipnis because of SBs.

9:53	Comment From Bearman Should the Blue Jays sign Ervin Santana?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:53	Comment From Mikes Pastrys Does Ida’s have better canoli?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I’ve never been to Ida’s, but …. no.

9:53	Comment From Compton What do you make of Dustin Pedroia’s injury? If he’s truly healed, then is he worth a 2nd/3rd round pick in a 12 teamer?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Yeah. Given the dropoff after the top tier of 2B, he’s worth it anyway.

9:54	Comment From Compton New to the late-night chats. Can you tell me how to win my fantasy league in 3 sentences or less?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Win the middle rounds. Easy to do well in the first few rounds and get low-risk, high-reward sleepers at the end, but if you don’t win rounds 7-14, you’re probably screwed.

9:55	Comment From Jaack You apparently are the only person who isn’t watching House of Cards and telling everyone they don’t think its that good, despite talking about it all the time.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I guess so. I think I’ve had my fill of political shows for this lifetime. I don’t care about real politics, can’t see why I want to care about fake politics.

9:56	Comment From bill Prediction for Yoon?

9:56	Paul Swydan: My prediction? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

9:57	Paul Swydan: Seriously though, I’ve heard he has a shoulder thing, so I’m not considering him a draftable player at this juncture.

9:57	Comment From Spencer Miller or Verlander?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Speaking as a big fan of Shelby Miller …. Verlander. Come on now.

9:57	Comment From Compton So you’re part of the nation, eh? Can you give me your realistic and optimistic projections for Xander this year?

9:58	Paul Swydan: The FANS projections had him pegged for a .358 wOBA at last look. That plus good defense and baserunning and you have a 4-win player as a rookie.

9:58	Comment From Spencer keeper league is why I ask

9:58	Paul Swydan: Still Verlander.

9:58	Comment From b long should I be excited that I kept Wil Myers or is he going to regress?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Both.

9:59	Comment From Ryan Should the Reds stick with Zack Cozart long term even if he has another poor offensive year? Doesn’t seem like there’s much internal help on the way or much on the FA market at SS, so if not, should they look at a trade?

9:59	Paul Swydan: No, no they should not. They should spend their money wisely instead of frittering it away on old people like Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Also, while we’re here, they shouldn’t give six-year contracts to barely above-average pitchers.