FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/23/16 by Paul Swydan February 23, 2016 9:00 Paul Swydan: OK let’s do this! 9:01 Paul Swydan: I am somewhat dismayed that you are all so rational about the Reyes thing. Is this not the Hot Take Zone? 9:01 Paul Swydan: (Kidding. It isn’t.) 9:02 Ceej : Both $1 players. Pollock or Schwarber as a final keeper? Due in a week. 9:03 Paul Swydan: I like both, but I have to lean Pollock. He has more well defined performance at the big league level, and a more clearly defined role moving forward. And he’s only 28. 9:03 Jeff Zimmerman: Pollock, I think. Tough call. It may come down to the makeup of the rest of your team. 9:03 Snid: What can the Red Sox do about Sandoval? If he doesn’t perform, can they send him to the minors? 9:04 Paul Swydan: I think that while technically they might be allowed to send him to the minors, you would see him just outright cut before they get to that. Mayyyyyybe they could phantom DL him and keep him down in the minors for the full 30-day rehab stint as a way to save face. Hopefully he’ll just play better. 9:04 Jeff Zimmerman: No, they would need to put him on waivers and hope someone claims him. IMO, I think he has at least two months to prove himself 9:04 Paul Swydan: Agreed. 9:04 Brandon: Who do you think will be the top 5 prospects this time next year? 9:05 Paul Swydan: Jeff Zimmerman is always my top prospect. 9:05 Paul Swydan: (I have no idea, sorry.) 9:05 Jeff Zimmerman: Ahhhh…..thanks 9:05 Jeff Zimmerman: Urias #1. I have a feeling he will stay in the minors all year 9:06 Brandon: Will Gregory Polanco make big strides this year? 9:06 Paul Swydan: I am cautiously optimistic. 9:07 Jeff Zimmerman: I hope. He needs to show improvement in some facet of his game. 9:07 Mr.Tibs: Last Keeper, Jay Bruce or Yasmany Tomas? Equally strong at both OF and 3b. 9:08 Paul Swydan: Uhhhhhhhhhh, Bruce I guess? Just because of the change of scenery? Or potential change of scenery? 9:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Bruce. But I have read a couple positive points on Tomas from ST 9:08 JA RULE: What do you expect to see from Raisel Iglesias this year? 9:08 Paul Swydan: To holla, holla? 9:08 Paul Swydan: Sorry, I couldn’t resist. 9:08 Paul Swydan: I expect him to be a top 40 pitcher. 9:09 Paul Swydan: Or, starting pitcher. 9:09 Jeff Zimmerman: Great things if he can stay healthy and throws enough innings. 9:09 Jason: What does Texas do with their LF now that there’s almost no chance Hamilton plays? 9:09 Jeff Zimmerman: See if Profar can play it? 9:09 Jeff Zimmerman: Or Gallo? 9:10 Paul Swydan: Jur.Ick.Son.Pro.Far. 9:10 Paul Swydan: Honestly, it’s gotta be freeing for Texas. Whether it’s Profar, Gallor or Brinson, it’s going to be someone more exciting than Hamilton. 9:11 Guest: Buying Pedroia as the best 2nd basemen in baseball? 9:11 Jeff Zimmerman: In just the AL East? 9:11 Paul Swydan: Uh, no. Did he say that he is? I mean, as a Red Sox fan I want him to believe that. But, no. Not anymore. 9:12 Barry from Boston: The SP rotation after Price, slobs Panda and Handley, unproven Castillo and catchers. How can they be so highly regarded with this many holes? 9:13 Paul Swydan: Because there are potential solutions there. The Sox have a very wide beta. They could easily be a 98-win or 72-win team. Which I think is about 8-10 wins wider than the gap is for most teams. 9:13 Jeff Zimmerman: Because other teams have just as many holes. Have you seen the World Series Champion Royals starting rotation? Horrible.Or the Indians lineup? 9:13 Paul Swydan: Yeah, that too. 9:14 Currywurst: A German (fringe) TV channel is broadcasting Moneyball in 10 minutes. I think the Film will suck in german (translations of english baseball terms to german are pretty awkward), but I still think that’s awesome 9:14 Paul Swydan: That is awesome! 9:14 Jeff Zimmerman: I would like to see that. 9:14 Concerned Citizen: Where has August been? 9:14 Jeff Zimmerman: After July still 9:15 Paul Swydan: August had a private matter to attend to. He’s back in the swing now though. Thank you for your concern. 9:15 The Decadent Moose: For a dynasty situation, would you consider trading out WYChen this year for one of the young guns next: Giolito, Urias, Reyes or Glasnow? 9:16 Paul Swydan: Yeah, absolutely, I don’t see Chen as a big enough difference maker to hang on to. 9:16 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, Giolito now. For ’16, I think Berrios will get the most innings 9:17 Javierbryant: 20 team, 2 catcher, keep 8, $260 salary, $5 per year inflation. Would you trade $11 (each) Lindor, Soler, and Rondon for $21 Machado and $6 JT Realmuto to round out your keeper list if those three were your worst keepers? 9:18 Paul Swydan: Wow, $5 per year inflation! That’s high. I think so, yes. 9:19 Jeff Zimmerman: I would make the trade, I personally, I like the high inflation or a max keeper time 9:19 Paul Swydan: I didn’t say I *didn’t* like it, just that it’s high. 9:19 Larry: Who will have the highest fWAR next year: Cespedes, Gordon or Upton? 9:19 Paul Swydan: I’ll vote Upton. 9:20 Jeff Zimmerman: Agree 9:21 Wheeze: In most baseball video games (although I know OOTP’s been bucking this trend in recent editions) the difference between starting pitchers and relief pitchers often comes down to some “stamina” stat where some pitchers can log more innings at a time before getting tired than others. I wonder – is there any real world version of this idea, any significant difference between the MLB pitcher with the highest “stamina” and the lowest? Or could pretty much any major league pitcher get accustomed to throwing 100 pitches every five days, regardless of how effective they’d be? 9:22 Jeff Zimmerman: I think pitchers could get the stamina, it would just take them about a month. They would throw with less velo though 9:22 Paul Swydan: I think it’s more about quantity of pitches at their disposal. 9:23 ssf: Say you’re the Rangers and you know today Josh Hamilton is done, and you’re only allowed to use one of your big 3 prospects to replace him. Do you use Gallo, Mazara, or do you put Brinson in CF and slide DeShields to LF? 9:24 Paul Swydan: As I said before, I honestly would give Profar the first shot. They have to figure out if he can still be good. If he can, …. I mean he was the #1 prospect two years running. That’s rare. 9:24 Jeff Zimmerman: Gallo, it’s his time to sink or swin IMO. 9:24 Jeff Zimmerman: I am worried about Profar’s arm and if it is 100% 9:24 Drew: What year do you expect the Braves to compete for a World Series title again? 9:24 Paul Swydan: Not before 2018. 9:25 Jeff Zimmerman: At least 2018, helps to be in the AL East 9:25 Sage: Paul, how do you take your coffee? 9:25 Paul Swydan: I don’t drink coffee. 9:25 Jeff Zimmerman: NL East, sorry 9:26 Jeff Zimmerman: Straight black. The stronger the better. 9:26 BakedBean: Can the Sox have 2 starting catchers? Can Swihart and Vazquez start 81 games each? Would that be detrimental to their development? 9:27 Jeff Zimmerman: One will get hurt and/or suck. Also, I think it might be good because each has an extra day to prep each game. 9:27 Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think that would be bad for them. 9:28 Snarfle: In a redraft, how early are you taking Correa? 9:28 Paul Swydan: Second round? Very early. 9:28 Jeff Zimmerman: 12th. He will be gone before I get him. 9:29 Northsider: Was the DH being added in the NL just an offseason topic of the month that has run its course, or is it still a serious possibility for the upcoming CBA? 9:30 Paul Swydan: I think what happened is that someone thought they had a scoop, and that it backfired. However, I do think it will be a point of discussion in the CBA negotiations. 9:30 Jeff Zimmerman: Serious possibility with it being added in the next 10 years. 9:31 Matt: I am still quite high on Daniel Norris. He is still a guy with an amazing changeup,two average breaking balls, and began throwing what is labeled as a splitter late last season. His thyroid cancer is gone and he is on a new team, what are your thought? 9:31 Paul Swydan: I think he could still be a pretty good pitcher. Definitely not ready to give up on him after one year. 9:32 Jeff Zimmerman: I was not as high as you are (I could be wrong) and am using a wait and see approach with him 9:32 Scott: Re: Fowler, 3/33 seems spot on, right?. 6 WAR over 3 years @ $8mm/win, less $15mm for the #14 (or #28?) draft pick. 9:32 Paul Swydan: Nah, he got screwed by the draft pick. He would have got more, or a longer deal at least. 9:33 Paul Swydan: I mean, I doubt he sees it this way, is what I mean. He probably doesn’t think he should have to sacrifice money for the pick. 9:34 Jeff Zimmerman: Agree he got screwed, but with the current system, it is the correct evaluation. 9:35 Snid: Has J.D. Martinez peaked or are there bigger numbers in his future? 9:35 Paul Swydan: I’ll say peaked. But he could stay at or near that level for a bit. 9:36 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he has peaked. I am not sure where he can really grow 9:36 Professor Collmenter: Seems like Dan Szymborski’s team-by-team ZiPS have all been posted to the site…any idea when we’ll be able to sort them all/export from the projections page? 9:36 Paul Swydan: Sometime in March. Patience, please! 9:36 Jart: final keeper: Grandal for my final round pick, or Altuve for my 2nd rounder, possibly 1st depending on where his ADP is by draft time… 9:37 Paul Swydan: Oh definitely Grandal. I like Altuve, but not as a first or second rounder. 9:37 Jeff Zimmerman: Altuve 9:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I believe he is a first or second rounder 9:38 Don Biehl: True or false: Kyle Hendricks finishes the season as a top 20 pitcher. 9:38 Paul Swydan: I’ll say false. 9:38 Jeff Zimmerman: False 9:38 Andy: Auction draft, keeper league, with a minor league draft following. Thinking of trying to sign A.J. Reed during the auction portion and using the minor league draft pick to add another guy (someone like a Benintendi, DeLeon, or Snell). Sound strategy? Worried that Reed won’t make it to me at the #6 pick. 9:40 Jeff Zimmerman: I use this strategy in an AL league I am in. The top rookies will need to bought in the Auction 9:40 Paul Swydan: I like it. 9:40 Guest: How many unexplained bad seasons could be due to mental health issues like depression? A player is physically healthy, but it could easily effect performance without us or even the team knowing. 9:41 Paul Swydan: A lot of them. But we can’t really no, and don’t really have a right to, honestly. 9:42 Jeff Zimmerman: Probably more than we can imagine 9:42 Lemathieu: I think DJ Lemathieu is underrated. Could score 90 runs with 15 stolen bases and hit .290 atop the Rockies lineup. 9:43 Paul Swydan: I suppose in a 5×5 league, he might have value. But I don’t see him hitting .290. 9:44 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, not sure he is the great chose for leadoff 9:44 Jeff Zimmerman: He may be Colorado’s best choice though 9:44 Brian: Fair trade, forever keeper 20 teams 11 keeper points league: I get Grichuk, Thor, Austin meadows, Newcombe for Sano, Tanaka. Leaning towards no 9:46 Jeff Zimmerman: Really depends on your other keepers. If Meadows and Newcombe are your keepers, do it. If you have to dump them, don’t do it 9:46 Paul Swydan: It might be fair, but while I’d love to get rid of Tanaka before he breaks, I wouldn’t want to trade Sano. 9:47 Larry Eagle: Do you think Profar is draftable in a 12 team, 30 man roster league? 9:48 Paul Swydan: I think so. But I wouldn’t want to draft him too high, despite my optimism. 9:48 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes for now. He has more upside than some players taken at the end. If he gets stuck in the minors, get someone else. 9:48 Ol Sea Cap’n : I love prospect rankings but really wish I could find one that helped gauging estimated time to the majors. I.e. Moncada is not worth drafting in a keeper league yet bit JP crawford probably is. Please help. 9:49 Paul Swydan: RotoGraphs always needs ideas… 9:50 Jeff Zimmerman: BA and MLB has some time to majors. 9:50 Cupid: Your mom confides that she’s fallen in love with an mlb manager, and–surprise!–she’s invited him to dinner. The doorbell rings…Who are you terrified to see when you open that door? 9:51 Paul Swydan: This might be the weirdest question ever. But, Joe Maddon, since I dislike him so much. 9:52 Jeff Zimmerman: Mike Scioscia 9:52 Ryan: So who plays SS for the Rockies while the Reyes situation plays out? And is that person fantasy-relevant? 9:53 Paul Swydan: Well, it’ll either be Trevor Story or Daniel Descalso. One of them would be fantasy relevant, and one….wouldn’t. 9:53 Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said 9:53 Shirtless Bartolo Colon: When I was Sandoval’s age, I only weighed 230 😉 9:53 Paul Swydan: Good note, Shirtless Bartolo! 9:54 Jeff Zimmerman: You never weight 230 lbs since you were 16 9:54 Paul Swydan: Also, let me take this brief moment to remind you to listen to the Doing It For Bartolo podcast on Hardball Times. I believe tomorrow’s is with Tom Verducci. Good stuff! 9:54 Anthony: I’ve got Arrieta and Rodon as keepers, $21 total in a $260 auction. What type of pitcher should I be targeting next? 9:55 Jeff Zimmerman: Another top 20 ace, teams need to aim for 2 or they may struggle with pitching. 9:56 Paul Swydan: One who’s been more stable. 9:57 Jack: Pick one please to pair with Betts and Soler in a keeper league, thanks 9:57 Jeff Zimmerman: Trout? 9:58 Paul Swydan: Yeah I’m not sure I understand this question. 9:58 Brock : Thoughts on EE/Bats potentially replacing Ortiz as The Redsox DH? 9:59 Paul Swydan: I doubt that one of those things will happen. 9:59 Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Red Sox may fill from within after this season with someone like Sandoval 10:00 Bones: 11 team, 6 keeper league with $280 cap, trying to decide between Eaton at $13 and Stroman at $6. Who you taking? 10:01 Paul Swydan: Stroman 10:01 Jeff Zimmerman: I would take Stroman at that price 10:01 A-Rock: 20 team 5 x 5 – we keep 9 guys – I’m keeping Martin 7, Asdrubel 1, CarGo 21, Conforto 1, Ziegler 2, Richards 4 and Kendricks 1. Need 2 of the following: Upton 39, Braun 38, Valencia 1, Kearns 4, Kershaw 47 and Street 18 – can probably re-buy the expensive pitchers for close to their salaries. With inflation, top hitters go 45+. 10:02 Paul Swydan: I’d say Upton and Kershaw. Peace of mind is worth it with Kershaw, even if the cost would be the same. Also, Ziegler is terrible, FYI. 10:02 Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw only or no one 10:03 Kvn: Assuming Gallardo and Fowler deals go through, O’s will have given out more money this offseason (total deal value) than any other team. $284.8MM. The O’s. Crazy. 10:03 Paul Swydan: I mean, they’re still owned by a billionaire, are they not? 10:04 Jeff Zimmerman: The Davis deal was just dumb. I love how teams bid up themselves 10:04 Paul Swydan: We are not billionaires though, so we need to figure out some ways to make some more money. Thanks for hanging out with us, and we’ll talk again next week!