FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/28/17

by Paul Swydan

February 28, 2017

5:00

Paul Swydan:

What is the best Netflix original show?

Master of None (11.7% | 18 votes)

Black Mirror (11.1% | 17 votes)

Bojack Horseman (15.6% | 24 votes)

Narcos (14.3% | 22 votes)

Luke Cage (3.2% | 5 votes)

Jessica Jones (4.5% | 7 votes)

The Get Down (0% | 0 votes)

Orange Is The New Black (9.1% | 14 votes)

The OA (1.9% | 3 votes)

Other (say in comments) (28.1% | 43 votes)

Total Votes: 153

5:02

Paul Swydan:

On what team did you most like Bartolo Colon?

Cleveland (15.9% | 34 votes)

Expos (13.6% | 29 votes)

White Sox (3.7% | 8 votes)

Angels (4.2% | 9 votes)

Red Sox (2.3% | 5 votes)

Yankees (2.8% | 6 votes)

A’s (5.1% | 11 votes)

Mets (40.8% | 87 votes)

Braves (3.7% | 8 votes)

I never liked him (7.5% | 16 votes)

Total Votes: 213

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Felix: Best Netflix show is Daredevil

9:01	Graves: Netflix original: Ultimate Beastmaster

9:01	Caffeind: Daredevil or Stranger Things

9:01	5 Run Homer: STRANGER THINGS, PAUL

9:01	Paul Swydan: Wow, I forgot Stranger Things.

9:01	Paul Swydan: My bad.

9:01	Guest: Daredevil

9:01	bob: Vote for House of Cards

9:02	Pee in This!: Stranger Things

9:02	Paulie Walnuts: Best show on Netflix is Fuller House…fughgetaboutit! Oh…and House of Cards is pretty good too.

9:02	Keyser Soze: Daredevil

9:02	Greg: other: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

9:02	Paul Swydan: For the record, I also watch this show.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I did the poll by looking at current Netflix original shows, and a few of those weren’t there.

9:02	Felix: The 100 is pretty good too!!

9:03	Paul Swydan: That’s not a Netflix show!

9:03	Paul Swydan: That’s a CW show.

9:03	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Black Mirror needs more love. It’s highly original and thought provoking.

9:03	Guest: Uh, House of Cards?

9:03	Felix es el rey: Bloodline

9:03	Phillip: Daredevil is the best Netflix original show

9:03	Phillip: Or House of Cards

9:03	Kevin: I am sorry, but a list of Netflix shows without House of Cards is like having a list of best wrestlers without Hulk Hogan

9:03	Kevin: Marco Polo was vastly underrated and under-marketed. Shame it was cancelled.

9:04	magicarpenter: Kimmy Schmidt would be in my top 3 (netflix div.)

9:04	CB: What about House of Cards?

9:04	Paul Swydan: OK, that’s all of your Netflix show comments. For the record, Stranger Things and Kimmy Schmidt would be my votes, and I forgot to include them, so yeah. I suck.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Does that mean I don’t owe you an article tonight?

9:05	Paul Swydan: No, I still need it!

9:05	Paul Swydan: Next week is Fantasy Week at THT, everyone.

9:06	anon: any advice to someone graduating HS this summer looking to work in baseball someday?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Save your money?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Learn to love Ramen noodle.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: noodles, you can have more than one.

9:07	Lover of learning : Do you love to learn?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends if I want to learn about it.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I feel like this is a sarcastic question, but the earnest answer would be yes. Though I have less and less time to do so, seemingly.

9:08	Jack: Do you think there is any chance Ryan Rua is starting opening day for the Rangers?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Gut says no for opening day. The Rangers are a little like the Cubs with not enough spots for the MLB talent they control. It will cut into everyone’s playing time.

9:09	Paul Swydan: It would seem as though there would need to be an injury or two, given the veterans ahead of him.

9:10	Felix: What do you expect out of Alex Cobb?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Very little. I need to see him step up. I am hoping to catch some of his spring training appearances.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think our depth charts projection is fair – 132 IP, 1.5-2.0 WAR.

9:11	Dave: Bregman qualifies at MI in my 12 team roto league. Is he more valuable there then at 3B? I have c.seager, odor, and Gordon at my middle infield positions, but I may be able to deal Gordon.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I just ran some Cobb comps and Colon and Sabathia were the top two comparables.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I don’t think I’d play him there over Corey Seager, but in a vacuum, if I can play Bregman at MI he would be more valuable there.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now, their is no premium for any position except catcher. 1B and OF way down and SS is pretty stacked

9:13

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: 50 years from now, our kids will think that it was dumb we had to actually throw pitches to grant an intentional walk. Other than the DH in both leagues, what long-term nontrivial rule change will be next to elicit such overreactions while being taken for granted by our descendants?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Not sure. That’s a good question.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Only thing coming to my mind would be robot umps.

9:14	ResumeMan: How frequently do you guys update the playing time projections in the Depth Chart projections? I’m using that projection in my fantasy evaluation, and I’d like to keep current but not keep downloading a bunch of duplicate data.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Pretty much daily as news comes out. Dave C is all over any issues.

9:15	Paul Swydan: The depth charts are updated constantly. Not all teams are updated at the same time, mind you.

9:15

Luda: Last keeper and 1st pick question. 6×6 only league (TB+BB and holds) and I’m already keeping Bryant ($32), Rizzo ($32), Turner ($4), Piscotty ($13), Dahl ($1), Cueto ($21) and Oh ($1). I’m between $4 Baez and $8 Peraza for last keeper. Also best options at pick 4 for draft are Votto ($30), Braun ($26), CarGo ($26), Cespedes ($26), McCutchen ($24) should I be concerned that any of these guys minus Cespedes could be traded and possibly losing them to an AL team to where you’d take Scherzer ($46), Syndergaard ($36) or Martinez ($16) over the hitter?

9:18	Paul Swydan: That’s a tough one. I think I’d lean toward Baez, but I’m not 100% sure.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d go with Peraza for weekly lineups, Baez for daily. Votto isn’t going anywhere, so he is a safe pick. I don’t think Braun and his contract can be traded either. I would get Votto at #4

9:18	Paul Swydan: I don’t think any of those in the hitter group will be traded. I agree with Jeff, I’d go Votto.

9:19	Joe: Any chance you guys can add quality starts to the points auction calculator?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t know, but now people will see your comment at the very least.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so. I don’t know Mike P. does project them in his personal projections.

9:20	Camp : Spell Samardzija without looking back here.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Samardzija.

9:20	Paul Swydan: BOOM

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t

9:21	Alex: How long would you wait to take a second starter if you take Kershaw in round 1?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I probably wouldn’t draft one before Round 7.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: One ninute

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: minute

9:21	Paul Swydan: But I also don’t like to set those sorts of rules. I let the board come to me.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Look at the $ values as the drop from #15 to #17. I am aiming for one more of that top group if possible. http://www.rotowire.com/blog/pitcher-rankings-based-steamer/

9:23	Hungary Eyes: Rich Hill is in most top 25 SP lists, but may only have 100 ip. Where would he be ranked if he was a lock for 180+?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Top 15?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: If not higher. Also, his low-inning value jumps the shallower the league as his replacement’s production will be higher.

9:25	Dave: You think Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy will step up in a big way for the Orioles?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I sure hope so, it would make the season that much more compelling, but it would seem unlikely that both take off in the same season.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: No but I should probably dig into Bundy a bit more.

9:26	Timmy: In a 4 keeper, who’d you keep as your 4th player: Dee Gordon, Gary Sanchez or Chapman?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Sanchez

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:27	Bones: Keeper question: 11-team, $280-auction league. Can keep Cain at $17 or trade him for Anderson Espinoza (kept as minor leaguer) and keep $10 Carlos Santana instead. Thoughts?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I think either side is fine. Depends on your needs.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Well, I think both have reached their upside, so I like keeping the guy who is $7 cheaper and netting the rookie.

9:28	JC: I’m up a creek without a paddle..er..bat: Keep Hendricks for a 14th RD pick or Mazara for a 26th RD pick? CBS H2H points, 10 teams. Thanks!

9:28	Paul Swydan: Hendricks

9:29	Maxamuz: If Jarrod Dyson is the everyday lead off hitter, what does his end of season line look like? More value than Billy Hamilton? Viable CF in 10+ Team leagues?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Hendricks

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Dyson will be a near 3rd round talent with a full season (and him running, some worry there). Yes on Hamilton and 10 team league.

9:30	Paul Swydan: He’d certainly be a viable CF in 10+ team leagues. I think he’d be there with Hamilton if not better.

9:30	Maxamuz: Can someone help me understand the Keon Broxton love?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Oh, that’s simple – we get bored in the offseason, and we all want to find the next sleeper. This offseason, we’ve latched onto Broxton.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Power Speed threat with no AVG. Drew Stubbs clone

9:31	RangersFan: Chances Odor can lift walk rate? Guys who hit 30 homers at his age usually become superstars, guys with his patience usually become replacement level. But can’t think of a great comp for his skill-set at his age.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Let me find you some. Paul, take it until I return

9:33	Paul Swydan: I got some.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Players with 30+ HR and < 4% BB% since 2001:

9:34	Paul Swydan: Alfonso Soriano, 2002, Adam Jones, 2013, Tony Batista, 2004, and Odor last season.

9:34	Paul Swydan: A few others have gotten close to 30 HR – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=100&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2001&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=48020&players=0&sort=6,d

9:35	einstein2u: Strasburg, to much of a risk to draft as your SP1?

9:35	Paul Swydan: For me, too much risk, absolutely.

9:36	Mike: [Young prospect] from [my favorite team] is doing [terrible/terrific] in Spring Training. This means he’s going to be a [bust/all star]. Right?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Right!

9:36

Mick D: Have a Scoresheet question, have 1st pick( yes traded a mediocre roster) and am down to Matt Moore for a decent 200 IP as my #3 of 5 starters or Kenley Jansen, badass closer. If I take Jansen likely the best starter remaining is A. Bradley; if I take Moore, best closer is Oh. Assume my roster is a stocked OF(it better be) and a decent inf. Help is appreciated

9:36	Paul Swydan: I think I’d probably prefer Moore/Oh to Jansen/Bradley, but it’s close.

9:37	Kevin: Found out this morning that CC has 223 wins. He gets to 240, is he a HoFer? Seems like he may get in for reasons other than purely baseball

9:37	Paul Swydan: I don’t see why 240 is so much more magical than 223.

9:38	Rick Hahn: Reyes and Kopech bombed, Giolito not so bad and Moncada has made contact once in 3 games. How worried should I be?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Not at all worried. Calm down!

9:38	Sensei: I hate wasting games at C so I try to platoon Catchers from the same team. Which team has the best catching tandem?

9:39	Paul Swydan: The Dodgers would probably be my pick, because I like Austin Barnes, but I’m open to counterarguments.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: My query is messed up. Sorry. No Odor comps.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Indians also

9:40	Paul Swydan: All good Jeff!

9:40	Terence: Are you more interested in the WBC or the NCAA Toruney?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the tourney. WBC is OK, but seems too short to be done right

9:41	Paul Swydan: At this point, it’s a toss up. I’m very interested in both. The NCAA tourney is more interesting to me this season because the Celtics might have the #1 pick. But I am also really interested in the WBC.

9:41	Terence: Fangraphs Projections: 93 wins for Boston, 91 wins for Houston; Davenport Projections: 82 wins for Boston, 97 wins for Houston. Which is closer to reality?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I love Clay, but I’ll say FanGraphs’.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Not because of the Boston projection, but the Houston. I think 97 is way too high for Houston.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Neither. but FG seems closer

9:42	Boolwerth: if a stadium was theoretically built 5200ft below sea level, would it suppress hitters to the same extent that coors field inflates them?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Oh my goodness, that is a fascinating question, and one we may need to consider in the aftermath of WW3, when we are living in underground bunkers.

9:43	Roger: Your Bartolo poll should have included 5 or 6 teams on which Bartolo hasn’t played, just to see how many people picked those teams because they’ve completely lost track of his (very well-travelled) career

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Whoa, hopefully

9:43	Paul Swydan: Well, we can only get 10 options.

9:44

Kevin: Two part question. 1. Is Mookie currently better than Hanley was at his peak with the Marlins (circa 07-09), and 2. A magic genie appears and grants you the option of statistically duplicating, exactly, Hanley’s age 24-27 seasons, but for Mookie’s age 24-27 seasons. Do you take that option, or roll the dice and hope Mookie outperforms him?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I think Mookie is close, if not there already. I’d roll the dice. Hanley only posted a 97 wRC+ in his age-27 season.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are really close. I may give the edge to Mookie on defense. I would take the for sure production from Hanley. Mookie could go all Nomar any season with an injury.

9:46	Paul Swydan: You hush your mouth, Jeff!

9:47	Nittanychris : 12 Team mixed, Auction League $260, standard 5×5 Roto league. Trying to decide between 2 final keepers for one season. You keep Khris Davis at $7 or Gregory Polanco at $13? Thanks!

9:47	Paul Swydan: I’d probably keep Davis. I like Polanco, but I don’t think I like him at double the cost.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends if you need SB or HR. In a vacuum, I lean Polanco.

9:47	Morris Buttermaker: Did you see mattingly’s comment about hitters no longer fearing k’s and that if they did it would speed up the pace of play? Do you see hitters prioritizing putting the ball in play more or do will they continue to not care about 200 k seasons as long as they hit 30 out?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think they’ll continue as is.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Hitters won’t change for now

9:49

CoachKent: Hey guys I play in a 10 tm keeper league with contracts that increase $3 per year. Typical $260 for contracts + draft. Keeping Freeman (3 yrs, $25) Cano (2 yrs, $22), Russell (3 yrs, $10), Donaldson (1 yr, $41), Sano (4 years, $13), K. Davis (1 yr, $4), Buxton (4 yrs, $13), Bumgarner (2 yrs, $24), Kluber (1 yr, $23), Giolito ($1), Maitan ($1), Devers ($1), Tyler O’Neill ($1). Is $78 enough to comfortably fill starting roles for CI, MI, C, 2 OF and 7 P? Planning still being able to get solid QS pitchers and cheap saves

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I finally got some Odor comps for power guys will no walks and Adam Jones tops the list with Corey Hart and Brett Lawrie next.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah I think you’ll be fine CoachKent.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I think you are fine in a 10-team league, but may need to live on the waiver for a couple of starters.

9:51	Ben: Which teams do you think Fangraphs is under projecting? How about over projecting?

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Under is the Cubs. Their pitchers are at a near .300 BABIP. I don’t expect it to regress 50 points.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think we’re under projecting the Rockies and Yankees, and over projecting the Mets and Angels.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Over may be the Dodgers. We have a lot of innings from their starters.

9:54	Where’s Eno?: Help me! I really need a trustworthy list of projected quality starts for 2017. I didn’t realize these are so hard to project

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Spend the $10

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.projectingx.com/baseball-player-projections/

9:55	Paul Swydan: Eno may have left RotoGraphs, but the quality of content has not dropped. Eno built a great team.

9:55	Stevil: Everyone’s always looking for the next breakthrough. Should MLB teams be scouting cricketers? How about curlers?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure why curlers would be targeted. I think in general, MLB should simply be trying to grow the game in places where it is not generally played.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I think scouts need to step outside the box a bit. Too many scouts locked in the typical MLB player look a 92+ velo. I think they are missing on some players

9:57	david: If you’re rizzo and you’re going to throw the rest of your minors talent at a closer (outside of Robles) – who do you throw it at? Trevor May? Maurer? who?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I just wouldn’t.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Kelley is fine

9:59	david: bearclaw? thornburg?