FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/10/15

by Paul Swydan

March 10, 2015

4:06	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET, and we promise that we’ll try not to injure any pitchers!! Until then, get your questions in. See you soon!

8:49	Jeff Zimmerman: We will try to get started in 10 minutes

9:02	Paul Swydan: One sec. Jeff needs a beer.

9:02	Comment From Uncle Jesse Any favorite new/up-and-coming type graphs/data visualizations you’ve seen recently?

9:03	Paul Swydan: I haven’t been in touch with the world much in the past week, but I know our data viz is looking up since we brought Sean Dolinar on board. If you guys have things you would point to in this vein, please share!

9:04	Comment From Bomok Who would you prefer in a dynasty league, Dylan Bundy or Andrew Heaney?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Probably Heaney, since he’s never had surgery before.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Bundy, I see Heaney upside as Andrew Miller. I am not high on him at all.

9:05	Comment From Josh I What age do you think the youngest FanGraphs regular is?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Regular reader or regular writer? I know we’ve had writers as young as 16, and I would guess reader-wise as young as middle school. Which is kind of frightening.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: 10 maybe. I would have been at that age since all I had as a kid was The Sporting News once a week.

9:06	Paul Swydan: Agreed.

9:06

Comment From Dieselcricket
I don’t know how to identify pitches as they’re thrown and am too embarrassed to ask how to learn. I’ll think it’s a curve and the announcer says it is a slider. Any resources out there that can show me what I’m looking for and tips on identifying what a pitcher is actually throwing?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Hmmm, I actually don’t know. I guess what I would do is match up highlight videos with PITCHf/x logs, but there’s probably an easier way.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Sometimes it is really impossible to tell unless you ask the pitcher. There are curves, changes and sliders with the exact some movement. When I do Quick Looks I usually look up what the pitcher throws.

9:08	Comment From Headed to AZ You can’t just say “grab a beer”. We need specifics!

9:08	Paul Swydan: Yeah, JEFF.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Stone Runination IPA. I have the Stone IPA variety pack and didn’t know which one was coming out.

9:09	Comment From Matt Are you following the Mixed Tout Wars draft? Eno has two catchers and Sporer has two closers by the 6th round.

9:09	Paul Swydan: I am not. I can’t imagine following someone else’s draft live. No offense to Eno and Paul, god love em!

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t even like following my league’s auction draft after I run out of positions/money. And I have a vested interest in that!

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: There is some good work which says not to wait on end game catchers, so I could see them getting picked. I also like the top 3 closers and have been aiming for them.

9:11	Comment From Josh Would either of you like to work for a MLB team? Why/why not?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I actually did work for the Colorado Rockies for seven years. I have no desire to work for a team ever again. Unless I can do it from home. I like sweatpants.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Well, I mean, I don’t like them, but they’re better than most pants. DON’T YOU HATE PANTS?!?!?! https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I have done some contract work before and am bird dogging/scouting locally for one now. I feel I won’t move to a town with a team because my wife makes more than 95% of all front office personell

9:13	Comment From Mike Do both Sanchez and Norris start the year in the rotation now?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I would guess it’s Marco Estrada and one of the young bucks.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I don’t think either is really ready, but may surprise.

9:14	Comment From Vic When do you suppose would be the absolute earliest Rafael Devers makes an impact in MLB?

9:14	Paul Swydan: 2017?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: yea, I may even go later.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Probably more like 2018. When he’ll still be just 21.

9:15	Paul Swydan: He’s young. He is another of these prospects who was born after 2Pac died. Shudder.

9:15	Comment From Will I know someday you’ll have a beautiful life. I know you’ll be someone else’s sky, but why, why, whhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhy, can’t it be mine?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I think this was Will’s ode to Marcus Stroman. Sorry, Will.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: That injury was horrible.

9:17	Comment From Lenard So after my draft my middle infield options are Lawrie, Bogaerts, Semien, and Kang. Think I can get two productive guys out of this motley crew?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Bogaerts and Kang if you’re not risk averse. Sub one of them for Lawrie if you want a safer bet. But yes, I think you can get two productive guys out of that group.

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, I would go with Bog first. High upside. Then Semien, Kang and Lawrie.

9:18	Comment From Isaac S. any chance darvish comes back and contributes to my fantasy team?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Not this season. Sorry.

9:18	Comment From Isaac S More wins this year: Matt harvey or the knicks?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Now THAT is a poll!

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Knicks, Harvey may not be allowed to get the need innings for a month or two.

9:19	Paul Swydan: He might not, and I’ll STILL say Matt Harvey, bwahaha

9:19	Comment From Isaac S any chance mets win the NL east?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: 10%

9:20	Paul Swydan: There’s always a chance, Isaac. Particularly if the Nationals team plane crashes or something equally horrific happens.

9:21	Comment From Ringtone Composer Are MLB teams allowed raise money through debt offerings?

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: No idea at all.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Yes, but there is a debt service rule, about team’s debt to equity, and the Commissioner’s Office has punished teams that are not in compliance with it in the past. The DBacks got banged for it in the mid-2000s after their run with Schill/RJ/Finley/Gonzo, etc.

9:22	Comment From Farting for Science I have personally witnessed several baseball commentators and writers imply that Jordan Zimmermann is better than Stephen Strasburg. This is nonsense, right?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Nonsense is a strong word. I’d certainly take Strasburg first, but Zimmermann is close.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I actually put them on the same level. stras hasn’t really been the same since TJS

9:23	Comment From #1 Fan Do you think Mookie Betts is in for a big year? And, what do you think his future value would be, as well as his rwn

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I am biased towards Zimmerman(n)’s though

9:24	Paul Swydan: Yeah, we’ve had internal discussions about renaming the site MookieGraphs.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the year will be mixed and he and the league adjust. I also don’t know how the playing will work out in Boston.

9:24	Paul Swydan: They just need to trade Victorino. Or cut him. Either is fine.

9:24	Comment From JP Not sure if you answer fantasy baseball questions, but if you do, which is more likely…that Harper has his best season in 2015 or that Altuve had his best season in 2014? And, assuming the price is the same, which do you keep? Thanks!

9:25	Paul Swydan: Of course we do, JP! And, Altuve.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Sorry

9:25	Paul Swydan: I mean, Altuve had his best season in 2014 is more likely, so I’d keep Harper.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Altuve and I may keeper Harper just because I think he will age better (power vs speed). I would take Altuve for the next couple of seasons.

9:26	Comment From Stephen Have you been following the Hector Olivera fiasco? Dude is fielding offers for a new agent…while fielding offers from teams: https://twitter.com/kileymc…

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: He will need to get his arm fixed first.

9:27	Paul Swydan: I haven’t, because I can’t be bothered to care about these guys until they sign, but whenever I see stuff about it it’s from Kiley, who is killing it as usual.

9:27	Comment From Jheff Any possibility of Stroman returning for September? Gallardo returned after 3 months?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I think it depends on where the team is. They’re already ruling him out for the season, which I agree seems pre-emptive, but he’s young and they just might not want to rush him. We’ll see.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t, but we will know more in a few days.

9:28	Comment From meatballsfly in my league there was a trade of machado and trumbo for jose bautista, i beileve it to be a fair trade, opinions, is it lopsided?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I’d say the guy who got Bautista got a steal, but I’m down on Machado so I may be a bit biased.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Fair enough and depending on league size, either side could have “won”

9:29	Comment From Matt There’s still no way to flip this so new stuff goes on top, right? No user-tweakable setting?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Not that I know of. Sorry.

9:30	Comment From zurzles how excited should we be about tyson ross’ +2 MPH? what is the appropriate amount of reading we should be doing into those numbers?

9:30	Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I watched him for a Quick Looks and I think he is limited until he get a 3rd pitch. His change was not good in this last start. Completely unrelated, but Jesse Hahn is also up 2 mph from last season.

9:31	Comment From Mike I have a healthy Wacha as my NL Cy Young pick. What say you?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Yeah….. https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to pitch more effient. Wastes some pitches, but I do think he is way under valued.

9:32	Paul Swydan: IF he’s healthy.

9:32	Comment From Adam jeff tweeted that yusmeiro petit’s velo was down in his first appearance. He got crushed today, any word on the velo in today’s game??

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Give me a couple, it is yours Paul for a bit.

9:33	Paul Swydan: OK

9:33	Comment From Saul Pwydan J.A. Happ over/under 3.70 ERA?

9:33	Paul Swydan: OVER!

9:33	Comment From Umami How big of a gap do you see between Trevor Bauer and Jimmy Nelson?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Not a big gap.

9:34	Comment From Josh My friend gets excited when i tell him i get questions answered in these chats. So basically you guys are celebrities. Enjoy it.

9:34	Paul Swydan: That’s scary. But please tell your friend we’ll answer his questions too!

9:34	Comment From Bomok I traded Smyly, hector rondon, and Michael saunders for Darvish in order to buy low following his injury. did I make a good deal? (dynasty league. and I’m not going to compete this year)

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yeah, a very good deal, especially with Smyly getting hurt literally one day later.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Or was it two days? Whatever, you get the point.

9:35	Comment From Rated Rookie Taijuan Walker looks ready to take his place in the Mariners rotation, no?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Petit at 87 today. Still down just about 2 mph: http://www.brooksbaseball.n…

9:35	Paul Swydan: I mean, I haven’t actually watched him yet, but if he’s not ready this year, he’s never going to be ready, so….

9:35	Paul Swydan: Thanks Jeff.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I liked him at the end of last season. He really looks like he is putting it together.

9:36	Comment From JD Really perplexed about Josh Harrison. A little worried about him hurting the same ankle that bothered him last year, but assuming this is ok — where do you guys stand? HIs value in an NL only league seems strong but the range of opinions is very wide.

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’m not bullish on him in mixed leagues, but in NL only he has a lot of value just on the positional value.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: His hit mix was good. His BABIP wasn’t really inflated. I like especially in leagues where he can play 2B, 3B and OF

9:37

Comment From john
Today in my nl only 13 team dynasty league, there was a trade of a $32 Matt kemp for a $5mcgehee, a rml m. Franco, and the number 2 overall pick in the minor league draft. Obviously the guy who wanted kemp was drunk, right? I mean having idiots in the league helps me win money every year but sometimes I’m just like banging my head on my desk.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I would love to play in a league with idiots. Mine are all so cut throat.

9:39	Paul Swydan: I guess that depends on who is available in your minor league draft, and what the salary cap is. Is $32 for Kemp a high dollar value, or do guys regularly go for $50 or so? I need more info!

9:39

Comment From flin
am i allowed to do fantasy questions here? i’m desperate! i need to trade 1 of Rizzo, Cabrera and Goldschmidt and I seriously have no idea how to value them. it’s mostly a question of how much can i trust Cabrera to stay healthy enough to be better than 2014 Rizzo vs could Rizzo be even better this year (i only have him for 2015). am i just too in love with the shiny new toy? which should i trade for an elite MI?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I would honestly shop all three and see which one brings back the best middle infielder. Why pigeonhole yourself into trading one specific guy?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I would move Cabrera. I don’t think he can stay on the field.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: What Paul said.

9:42	Paul Swydan: For reference, on the RotoGraphs 300, Miggy was 5, Goldy 6 and Rizzo 12. http://www.fangraphs.com/fa… You really can’t go wrong.

9:42	Comment From Nick Im in a 6×6 mixed league with OPS and Holds. 4 keepers at a 10% increase on the previous years cost, and a minimum of $12. Im keeping Trout at $14, Sale at $14, and then cant decide on the last two – Rizzo ($20) Betts, Soler and Bryant would all be $12. It’s agonizing. Thoughts?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Rizzo and Betts, but again, you can’t go wrong. You could even justify keeping Soler/Bryant over Sale if you wanted.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Bryant and Soler (IMO) – Way higher upside and power ages better. I may try to trade Sale and one for a top 5 player.

9:45	Comment From Rated Rookie Do you think Carlos Rodon starts the year in the Chicago? Care to guess how many starts he ends up making this season for the White Sox?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 25, and no on starting the year there.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he will get the up and down enough so the White Sox get and extra year with him, but he could get 30 starts.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: brb

9:46	Comment From Keeper didn’t we have a day like this last year where a bunch of pitchers went elbow-up the same day? If Clayton or Scherzer kick off I may very well throw up

9:46	Paul Swydan: A pox on your house for even suggesting it, Keeper!

9:46	Paul Swydan: If that IS your real name!

9:47	Comment From Mike More likely MVP finalist: Bryce Harper or Anthony Rendon?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Harper. I doubt Rendon will have a season dramatically better than his 2014 season, and he didn’t sniff the trophy last year. It IS a bit of a popularity contest, after all.

9:47	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Who at Fangraphs is the most depressed about Stroman’s injury? Who is the fallback love of fangraphs? Kluber? Salazar?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Eno took Stroman in LABR

9:48	Paul Swydan: Hmmmm….probably Hulet? He lives closest to Toronto.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Or Eno, hahaha.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: T.J. House may be next.

9:48	Comment From Dave in London Are the Red Sox serious about sending either their natual lead-off hitter, Betts, or their $70 million man, R. Castillo, to AAA?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I actually theorized that Castillo would end up in Triple-A for a month a few months ago. It’s not exactly far fetched. He’s been in pro ball for half of a hot second.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: They need to make a trade for Hamels.

9:49	Comment From Uncle Jesse (Assuming y’all are in AZ still), what games are you going to soon / have you been to that you you’re excited for / were rad?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I actually never made it to Arizona, and I think Jeff is home now?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Either that or he took his kids to Arizona.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: The FanGraphs whiffle game was great. Shifts, playing platoons and my team won.

9:51	Comment From Josh What did you do for the Rockies?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I started in ticket sales, moved to be the assistant editor of the Magazine/Program, and helped with everything in the marketing/advertising dept. Oh, and I got to help baseball ops with arbitration prep.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Drank thier beer and ate the Rockies Dog

9:52	Paul Swydan: Don’t forget the Helton Burger, Jeff!

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Never had it.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Get on it. It’s literally heaven.

9:52	Comment From Forsyth Moncada signing tomorrow? Saw Pete Abe tweet he heard it was supposed to be tomorrow but Kiley said Friday. Just wanting it to be done already!!

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’m sure it’ll get done eventually. As long as he doesn’t back out, I’m not too concerned with the timing.

9:53	Comment From Bomok Wait… Jeff, you didn’t tell us which team you’re scouting for? I’d also like to know if you root for a team/ that specific team, and which one? also, where do you live/ scout, and who do you like that we should keep our eyes on.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: It may take a while, no need to rush it.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I can’t say, I am seeing some studs Friday. Tate at Wichita and two others at K-State/Missouri St.

9:54

Comment From john
Sorry, it’s a 13 team nl only, 270 cap, 24 players, keep 14, not inclouding up to 5 minor leaguers who don’t count against the cap. And yes, some players can go over 40. But Matt kemp? He is borderline keepsake at $32, and crusading not worth that. Let’s assume Tomas makes the dbacks, then your taking about jp Crawford probably being#2.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Hmmm, then yeah, that’s not a great trade. Thanks, context always helps. Crawford looks like a stud.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take Kang of Thomas. Thomas looks horrible and I timed him at a sprint at 4.7 to 1B (<20 grade).

9:56	Paul Swydan: WOW REALLY? That’s slower than the crippled Albert Pujols time you got last spring.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Someone jokingly asked if he was a catcher?

9:57	Comment From Bomok I as just offered Jake Odorizzi for Will Middlebrooks. deal or no deal?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Take Odorizzi

9:58	Paul Swydan: Uh, yes. Deal. I’LL TAKE THAT DEAL! https://www.youtube.com/wat…

9:58	Comment From Your Display Name Chocolate Chip or Oatmeal Raisin? And since the answer is Chocolate Chip, why does Oatmeal Raisin even exist?

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing with Middlebooks says he will turn it around

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: As punishment for my kids.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Because sometimes you feel bad about eating too many chocolate chip cookies. But also because if an oatmeal raisin cookie is done just right it’s amazing.

9:59	Comment From baltic wolf With Dexter Fowler gone to the NL, I need a CF (must be CF eligible) for my 8 team AL only league. Is Gose somebody I should draft if I can get him on the cheap? Thanks.