FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/11/14

by Paul Swydan

March 11, 2014

5:55	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I think I’m flying solo tonight, on the account of Jeff having a fantasy draft, but maybe he’ll surprise and drop by in between rounds or something. Anyway, hit me with questions, and I’ll see you soon. Poll suggestions are welcome.

7:19	Paul Swydan: We’re starting at the usual 9 pm ET, btw. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

9:00	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s light this candle.

9:00	Comment From JV Would you rather own Kershaw and Sonny Gray OR Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann?

9:00	Paul Swydan: Kershaw and Gray

9:01	Comment From JV Would you rather spend $23 for Buster Posey in a standard 5×5 league or $14 for Salvador Perez?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Posey

9:01	Comment From JV How do you see Jim Henderson doing in his first full year as a closer?

9:01	Paul Swydan: Pretty well. Tier 2/3 closer.

9:01	Comment From JV What is AJ Pollocks line look like this year? What does his playing time look like?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Between a little regression and a little playing time reduction thanks to Cody Ross being back, I would be dropping Pollock on any mixed league board.

9:02	Comment From Vic Most likely to finish the year with 20 saves? Santos, Black, or Allen?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Probably Black. But I don’t like any of them to hit 20, to be honest.

9:02	Comment From Vic If Altuve played for the Red Soxs and Pedroia played for the Astros, what round would you draft each in a 5 x 5 15 team league?

9:03	Paul Swydan: Probably wouldn’t change much. Altuve is just not that good that a different team would drastically increase his value.

9:03	Comment From Vic McCutchen or Kershaw? Would you rather have McCutchen, Stanton and Price with your 1st 3 picks or Kershaw, Stanton, and maybe Carlos Santana? 15 team straight draft with some players like Trout, Goldy etc already kept.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Probably McCutchen, Stanton and Price, though it’s close.

9:04	Comment From Lenard Thoughts on Brian Dozier this year, especially potentially hitting lead off for the Twins? If he can have a normal BABIP, his OBP should at least be average.

9:06

Paul Swydan: His BABIP wasn’t that far from normal, and it was higher than it was in Triple-A in 2012, so I’m not sure I really like that argument all that much. He’s also in just his third season in the majors at age 27, and his ISO last season was nearly a career high, so I don’t see much imprvoement coming in his SLG.

9:06	Paul Swydan: So, basically right where he is.

9:06	Comment From David When is xbabip coming out(Say tomorrow)?

9:07	Paul Swydan: That’s a question for Eno or Jeff or Max Weinstein, not me. Sorry.

9:07	Comment From Lucas Going for top tier pitching and young guns a good strategy for starters?

9:07	Paul Swydan: It’s not the worst, but I would probably not pigeonhole your strategy like that, because there aren’t a ton of either that are rosterable.

9:08	Comment From Jca Who won the Matt Latos trade?

9:08	Paul Swydan: Right now, off the top of my head, the Reds.

9:08	Comment From Ramen Just for the record–I’m in Japan so this chat is not after dark. Having said that…Any pitchers you think might surprise this year (in a good way)?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Wow, thanks for reading from Japan! Second, I like Alex Cobb, who is probably valued less than he really is because he has never pitched a full season in the majors. I also like Ian Kennedy.

9:09	Comment From Arnie My Springer for his Salazar. Who wins

9:10	Paul Swydan: Depends on the kind of league it is. In dynasty, I’d probably want Springer. For this year, I’d stick with Salazar.

9:10	Comment From Jaack Since Barry Bonds is back in baseball, we need some Barry Bonds facts. Pitchers facing Barry Bonds in 2004 had the following stats: 16.79 BB/9 2.97 K/9 3.26 HR/9 Which combines for a 12.91 FIP. That’s like drunk Jonathan Sanchez, without the strikeouts.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Thanks Jaack.

9:11	Comment From Swing and a miss Harper Worst gm in baseball? Towers or RAJ

9:11	Paul Swydan: Towers has made a heel turn the past couple of years, but he is far from the worst GM in the majors. I mean, we all buried him for the Bauer trade, but that’s working out pretty well for him so far.

9:12	Comment From jj Is Alex wood now a starter by default??

9:13	Paul Swydan: I think he was before, but if he wasn’t, he definitely is now.

9:13	Comment From Danny E Thoughts on the Nats infield, short and long term? If Zimm’s arm is really ok, will he stick at 3B, or do they want Rendon there? Might Skole or some other prospect be in their plans?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Zimmerman is the third baseman for at least this season, thanks to them not cutting LaRoche, but in the long-term, they will probably move him to first. As for the infield in general, middling. The best player is Desmond, and he’s not a star.

9:14	Comment From asdfasdf Hi Paul! At fantasypros.com, in their composite projections, they use 5 sources including Fangraphs Fans Projections. Do you think I should include those, or are fan projections too unreliable? Thanks!

9:14	Paul Swydan: The FAN projections actually did really well last year. One second.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Well, OK, I can’t find it, but there was a Community article about a month ago in which the FAN projections were the third-best projection system last year.

9:16	Comment From Fanthed Buenos Noches. Who I should value you most in a keeper league: Danny Salazar, M. Tanaka, Pablo Sandoval, or Jose Abreu? Thanks!

9:16	Paul Swydan: Probably Abreu, based on what I’ve read. Then Sandoval, Salazar and Tanaka. Though I like all four of them.

9:17	Comment From Mike Will the A’s resurrect Drew Pomeranz’s career?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Hope so, but I’m not holding my breath.

9:17	Comment From Jose Will David Price be traded before the All Star break or the next offseason? Do you see an extension as a possible option for the Rays?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I don’t see it happening. I’ve said for awhile that I see them signing him to an extension.

9:19

Comment From AL Pitching Coach
Hey Paul. Thanks as always for doing the chat. I’m in an AL-only keeper league and have my auction coming up this weekend. I’m hoping to walk out of the auction with a few cheap arms that can pay much bigger dividends. So far my list includes Erasmo Ramirez, Tyler Skaggs, Yordano Ventura, Brad Peacock and Dallas Keuchel. Who do you like best on my list and who should I stay away from? Any advice is greatly appreciated.

9:20	Paul Swydan: Well, I like Ventura a ton, but I’d be surprised if you got him really cheap. I know Eno likes Keuchel, and I am still optimistic on Skaggs. I would definitely avoid Peacock, I don’t see him being an asset. In the middle on Ramirez, but I probably wouldn’t draft him.

9:20	Comment From Lance Mannion Thanks for doing the chat not many sites doing it anymore and the advice is always welcomed. In a 16 team mixed with one catcher should I save the money for the rest of my roster?

9:21

Paul Swydan: No, there are very few good catchers, so I always try to make sure I grab a good one. Same goes for second base and shortstop. I try to save my money on positions with more depth, so if I want to go back later and upgrade, there are actual avenues for doing so without making a blockbuster trade.

9:21	Comment From toot toot PLAYER X IS PERFORMING ABOVE/BELOW EXPECTATIONS THIS SPRING, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THEIR TEAM HEADING INTO THIS SEASON AND SHOULD THEY BE LOOKING TO MAKE A MOVE?

9:21	Paul Swydan: God no, dont’ make a move! DON’T MAKE A MOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

9:22	Comment From toot toot do you think Jackie Bradley starts the year in the minors if Sizemore can play every day? People have been speculating that might happen and it just seems insane to me

9:22

Paul Swydan: Sizemore can’t play every day. People talk about Sizemore a lot because a) he has the good face, b) he’s nice to the media, and c) there isn’t ANYTHING to talk about with this red sox team, since most positions are already spoken for outside of the bullpen, and the bullpen is boring to talk about.

9:23	Comment From Joe Recently drafted a pitching staff that includes JoFer, Salazar, Kluber and Alex Wood (on the assumption that he’ll start). How much should I be worried about losing multiple starters for the fantasy playoffs due to early shutdowns (it’s H2H)?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I would be less worried about that and more worried about the high beta of your staff in general. All four of those guys have extremely thin track records. Get some more stable guys to fill our your rotation.

9:24	Comment From Ryan What’s your projected order of finish in the AL East? Does it change depending on where Santana ends up?

9:25	Paul Swydan: A little, but not much. Haven’t spent a lot of time with it yet, but I’m thinking Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, O’s, Blue Jays.

9:25	Comment From Lifer Salazar or Cashner in a keeper leugue?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Salazar

9:25	Comment From Ryan Middlebrooks, Carp, Bradley, Sizemore: who will still be on the Red Sox in 2015?

9:25	Paul Swydan: Bradley. Maybe Carp.

9:25	Comment From Rick Which pitcher adding a new pitch this spring (see Jason Collete’s article today) has been having the most success with his new addition?

9:26	Paul Swydan: To answer this question I would have to be paying attention to spring training, and I am most definitely not. Haven’t watched a single pitch live.

9:26	Comment From Spencer00 Will Marcel projections be posted on player pages here on Fangraphs?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so, no. I don’t think we did last year either. I think if they were going to go up, they would have gone up by now. Sorry.

9:26

Comment From Nervous Nellie Fox
Hey, Paulie! Draft time is making me nuts. In a league with a bunch of wiseguys it’s 87% luck and in-season maneuvers, right? You can be all fired up about picking Adam Jones ahead of Ryan Braun, but who knows? We just talk ourselves into thinking we know stuff, right? Right?! And we don’t! We do not know whether Edwin Encarnacion will be better than Albert Pujols or Eric Hosmer or Freddie Freeman or whoever!! We don’t!!!! Discuss.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I think you about covered, NNF. But I would disagree with the notion that the draft is only 13% of the equation, especially in keeper leagues. In two of my three keeper leagues, you can only name a guy a keeper if you drafted him.

9:28	Comment From Bob Batman or Superman?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Batman, though my son really seems to like Superman best. Spider-man better than both of them tho.

9:28	Comment From Red Barbers Barber Skip great SP’s and load up the bullpen with monsters. Then fill in with Rick Porcello and such. Smart?

9:29	Paul Swydan: Depends. If your league has a harsh innings limit, I could see it. If not, then I don’t see the logic in punting K’s and wins.

9:29	Comment From Bill Lee Is Felix Dubrount ever going to be really good? He seems like it.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Define really good? Like All-Star level good? No, I doubt it. But I could see a nice run of 4-win seasons.

9:29	Comment From Medlen Dynasty Owner How boned am I?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Pretty boned, I’d say. Never good to hear that the MRI is so complex that only Dr. Andrews can properly interpret it.

9:30	Comment From john Contracts being equal – Gyorko or Arenado this year and future?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Oh, that’s a good one. Also, are they not equal at the moment? I think I’d take Gyorko just because of his position, but it’s close. Like both.

9:31	Comment From Fan Over under 85 Giants

9:31	Paul Swydan: Under

9:31	Comment From john Sitting on an NL only offer his $8 Corbin and $5 Arenado for my $10 Gee, $10 K. Davis, and $5 Gyorko. All contracts equal length. Seems like I’m giving up too much

9:32	Paul Swydan: Rather have Corbin than Gee, but like I just said, rather have Gyorko than Arenado, and then Davis is a nice piece, if a little expensive. I think I’d hold.

9:32	Comment From Bob You need more humor in your anwers

9:32	Paul Swydan: This came in at 9:02. I had just started! Cut me some slack, Bob!

9:32	Comment From Mike When will Ortiz fall off?

9:32	Paul Swydan: When he retires.

9:33	Comment From Ryan Who challenges for playoff relevancy first: Cubs, Astros, White Sox or Marlins?

9:33	Paul Swydan: That sounds like a poll!

9:33	Comment From Guest Which Segura story you like? Second half doesn’t tell story? Or, the league figured him out?

9:34	Paul Swydan: League figured him out and he didn’t adjust quickly enough. Hopefully he will make adjustments this year, but either way, I’m not expecting him to replicate his first-half production.

9:34	Comment From Chubby Hubby Will Pablo Sandoval be any good this year? Is he a decent starting 3b in a standard 12 teamer?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yes and yes.

9:34	Comment From Mike Why does Vic get all his questions answered?

9:34	Paul Swydan: There’s a ton of questions in tonight. I’m not looking at names like I normally do.

9:34	Comment From Tim Do you think the Padres or Diamondbacks can challenge for a wild card spot?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Both can, that division is super tight, but I like the Padres better. Or did, before Maybin’s injury. Now they’re even closer.

9:35	Comment From Ryan Who’s an infielder who might unexpectedly snare SS eligibility by the end of the year?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Wow, that’s a tough one. Kolten Wong? Alex Guerrero? This sort of thing doesn’t usually happen at shortstop/

9:35	Comment From RMM 7 keepers: Segura, Heyward, Stanton, Marte, Sale, Price, Latos. See any 5×5 Roto holes?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I mean, it’s a good list, but it’s a little thin in the infield, and like I just said, I’m not enamored with Segura. But it’s definitely a great start.

9:36	Comment From john how long do the reds trot out ludwick, heisey is better, right?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Neither is any good. They needed to sign anyone else this year, and didn’t. Honestly, if those are the two choices, I’d run Ludwick out there for three months to see if his shoulder recovers. It won’t, but Heisey is a known quantity.

9:37	Comment From Mike What’s going to happen with Drew and Bogarts?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Are we still on that? I didn’t think we were still on that.

9:37	Comment From Evan Why doesn’t Polanco get the buzz that Springer does? Which one do you think has more big league ABs?

9:38	Paul Swydan: It’s a fair question. I would guess A) because the Pirates don’t make as big a deal out of their farm system because they have other things to talk about and B) because Polanco is going to be less of an offensive star.

9:39

Comment From Anon E Moose
I’m in a keeper league. I’m thinking of a strategy of not drafting any of the low-level closers (top guys are kept) and going for Hold guys in the snake/supplemental with the idea one or two will convert to closers at one point. Or I can trade for closers later with my stacked staff. Good plan?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I can dig it. But if the price gets low enough, I usually try to pick up a late third-tier closer for $1-3.

9:39	Comment From Inigo Montoya Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.

9:39	Paul Swydan: How did you find me!!!

9:40	Comment From Boogs bbq Gausman is really looking like he is being buried by the Orioles and certainly appears to be heading back to AAA.Do you think he’ll see much of the majors this year? Do you still like him for the future?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Yes and yes. Bud Norris won’t stand in his way once he’s really ready.

9:40	Comment From David 4 win season is an all star no?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Yeah, in some seasons. (this is RE: Doubront). I guess I meant I don’t see him as a STAR, or a Guy, to use Keith Law’s lingo.

9:41	Comment From Ryan Know where I can find some good projected auction values? I couldnt find them here on Fangraphs, but would love to look if they’re available. Going into the 6th year of a now 20-person auction league.

9:43

Paul Swydan: Yeah, apologies on that. I know we are hard at work on something, but things have been pushed back. I think the THT reboot unfortunately put the screws to a lot of the fantasy stuff this year. So I take responsibility for that. Help me out and at least read THT so we can make it feel like it was worth it, K?

9:44	Paul Swydan: As for auction values, I think Alan Harrison has them in his Fantasy Fix draft kit. http://www.thefantasyfix.com/2014-fantasy-baseball-draft-guide/

9:44	Comment From Suffering Mets Fan If RAJ is the worst GM in MLB, the worst manager is _________.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Ron Gardenhire is always the first name that comes to mind.

9:45	Comment From Wren=derful News Today You can’t project auction values….too many variables

9:45	Paul Swydan: I don’t disagree with this sentiment. There have been years when I just figure out what number I can go to on each position and then just use a basic ranking list to pick from. I may do that this year as well. But I also don’t think auction values are worthless.

9:46	Comment From john terry collins! worst manager!

9:46	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. He hasn’t had much to work with. Hard to blame him.

9:46	Comment From yoyoma 5X5 roto league 10 team snake draft – I have pick 10 & 11. I am in love with Harper and feel like he may break out – but am torn between Braun, Puig, & either CarGo if available. Who is the best pick?

9:46	Paul Swydan: If all four of those guys are available, I’d probably go CarGo and Braun.

9:47	Comment From Long-Suffering Mets Fan I don’t follow the Twins, but is it even possible any manager could be worse than Terry Collins?

9:47	Paul Swydan: That’s two votes for Terry Collins. Mets fans are so hopeless.

9:47	Comment From Jon Best Braves offensive Outfielder this year?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Heyward.

9:47	Comment From ChicubsWally Give us 2-3 3rd tier closers you expect to see at 1-3$

9:48	Paul Swydan: LaTroy Hawkins, John Axford and whoever closes in Houston (Fields?)

9:48	Comment From Ryan That’s a fair point and I don’t disagree. All I can tell you is the top 2 or 3 guys go for $70 or $80 (excessive I know but there’s a big drop off in prices at a couple spots), then the next tier of 5-10 is $50-$60, with a total of around 20-25 guys that go for $45+.

9:48	Paul Swydan: What is your salary cap? That seems incredibly excessive.

9:49	Comment From Guest Should the Braves already be on the phone with the Orioles about trading for some pitching? If Ervin goes to Baltimore, this pushes out guys like Norris and Britton.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’m not sure the Braves need to trade for guys like Norris and Britton. They probably have guys that good in their farm system. If they’re going to make a trade, they should be shooting higher than that.

9:49	Comment From Dave Everth Cabrera: are you buying? Is a .270/.340 reasonable to expect?

9:49	Paul Swydan: I am buying. I do think that is reasonable.

9:50	Comment From ChicubsWally Best reliever to grab late- Mujica, Stropp, Herrera, or Ryan Cook?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Probably Cook for general performance, and Strop for potential for saves.

9:50	Comment From Scott 6 team NL-only league with Fangraphs points style scoring. 8 keepers. Bumgarner at 6, Zimmermann at 10, Liriano at 21, Corbin at 22, Teheran at 20 and Samardzija at 18. Which three or four would you keep?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Obvi Bumgarner and Zimmermann. And then either Teheran or Samardzija.

9:51	Comment From ChicubsWally Lonnie Chisenhall, breakout or down and out.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Neither. But if you’re making me pick, I’ll say (slight) breakout.

9:51	Comment From Ballpark Frank Hello Paul. Im in a 5×5 yahoo roto league and waited on catcher. I drafted Victor Martinez in hopes that he will become Catcher eligible at some point and Im riding with Montero until then. If he does get catcher eligibility where would you rank him among catchers?

9:52	Paul Swydan: In the top 10, but I really don’t see that happening unless your league is a one game eligility league. He only caught three games last season, and with Fielder gone, they have no one else for DH.

9:53	Comment From john how do you see colorado OF shaping up? Cargo – Dickerson – Cuddyer? Was there a point to trading fowler and brining in both stubbs and barnes?

9:54

Paul Swydan: We know CarGo in left and Cuddyer in RF. CF SHOULD be Dickerson, but judging by the way they have set their spring lineups — Dickerson hasn’t started in center once — it seems like it’s going to either Blackmon or Barnes in center. Which is obviously a mistake, but you shouldn’t really be surprised by that.

9:54	Comment From Scott Question about those 6 pitchers and who to keep. Those are draft rounds not dollar amounts fyi.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Oh. Well, you said “at 6”, so I assumed dollars. Sorry. I think still Bumgarner and Zimm, and then Teheran gets the nod now being in the later round.

9:55	Comment From Puig, Y Will I put up better stats than Wil Myers than this year?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I think so.

9:55	Comment From Jim At SS, what do you see this yr out of Starlin Castro? Return to 2012, return to 2013, or other (and if so, what)

9:56	Paul Swydan: Other – and really not sure, but closer to 2012 than 2013.

9:56	Comment From ChicubsWally Jenrry Mejia- love him or lose him (20 team AL/NL league)

9:56	Paul Swydan: I saw talk that the Mets might put him in the bullpen, which would be a laughable misuse of him, especially given his injury risk. If that comes to pass, lose him.

9:56	Comment From Baron Von Monkeypants Archie Bradley, Kyle Zimmer, Gausman – can take two in a keeper with great chance to win this year. thoughts?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Bradley and Gausman. I don’t expect Zimmer to be up until August, if at all. I think Jeff said he had some arm/shoulder trouble in ST already.

9:57	Comment From Guest Does Uehara keep it up this year? 40 SV and sub-2.00 ERA reasonable?

9:58	Paul Swydan: It’s NEVER reasonable to project a guy to have a sub-2.00 ERA, so I won’t do that. I expect Uehara to be good, but he’s not Superman.

9:58	Comment From Jon Brad Miller > Jean Segura? Also thoughts on Austin Jackson rebound?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Agree with this. I like Jackson, but he’s a better player in real life than fantasy because he doesn’t do anything REALLY well. He doesn’t hit a ton of homers or steal a lot of bases, and you need at least one of those things in an outfielder.

9:59	Comment From Santiago David Carpenter(ATL) or Joe Smith(LAA)?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Smith.

9:59	Comment From Dynasty Dude Just traded archer for desmond in my dynasty league. Major win for me?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think so. At the very least, it’s a win-win deal, and you got the offensive player, so yeah, dance of joy.