Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/11/14

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hopefully we’re setting into a good norm of being about two minutes late to get going

9:03	Comment From person Hi Jeff!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:04	Comment From Jerry G. James Paxson #2 to start the season?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: If only in title!

9:04	Comment From V Who do you think will have a better year: Khris Davis or Kole Calhoun?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I’m taking Calhoun by actual real-world value

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not asking, of course, about actual real-world value, but that’s all that I happen to care about

9:05	Comment From ryan MLBAM Player Tracking Reddit Chat right now at Reddit…. peeking at it?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: How could I? I’ve got my own chat to deal with. But I’ll check it out later, or, more likely, I’ll allow people to note the highlights on Twitter

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I suspect that the crucial information — that is, how much data will be shared with the public — still isn’t entirely known

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: But Redditors tend to think of pretty good and out -of-the-ordinary questions

9:07	Comment From Amber What are you doing to celebrate 311 day Jeff?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: 311 might be my least-favorite band in existence

9:07	Comment From person I was once told, in a business setting, that if I’m the one who needed a meeting that I should be a few minutes early. But if the other guy needs the meeting then I should be a few minutes late. Are you trying to tell us something?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I wanted to finish my biscuit in peace, basically

9:08	Comment From KJ Think there will be any new PED suspensions this year or is it not an annual thing?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: There are always a handful of guys who get busted in the minors. Usually guys who it’s not worth knowing about anyway

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: All right, let’s get to this:

9:09	Comment From Nick How concerning are the Braves’ SP health concerns? Medlen, Beachy, Minor…

9:09	Comment From Bo What do the Braves do now, if Beachy and Medlen are out? Surely not Santana, as 1-2 win SP shouldn’t be that pricey.

9:09	Comment From Eno this! its not looking good for Medlen these days…

9:09	Comment From Daniel Hello! It doesn’t look good for Medlen. Any thoughts on what the Braves might try to do?

9:09	Comment From john what would ervin look like in ATL, now that Medlen is going to meet with dr andrews and beachy’s arm is sore.

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It seems like Beachy could be okay. Medlen is a lot more concerning. Minor is somewhere in the middle. Obviously, none of these are guys you want to be talking about being without for an extended period of time

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard for me to see the Braves giving up a first-rounder for the privilege of having Ervin Santana for a year, even if he’d otherwise make plenty of sense. They are in a bubble situation and they are in a position of need

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: But I think the Braves need that pick too badly, and I think other teams like the Orioles and Blue Jays will beat whatever they might offer since those teams would lose a lower-ranking pick

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately I think the Braves go kind of boring — stay mostly internal, be patient, and perhaps pick up a guy who’s out of options and almost out of chances

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: For example, what would the Braves need to give up in order to land Zach Britton and his 4.18 career xFIP?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: If the upside of paying for Ervin Santana is just having Ervin Santana, it makes a lot of sense to try to stay cheap. Braves now further back of the Nationals, but no one else in that division is going to contend so it’s not like the Braves are entirely up against it

9:15	Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP Bautista is doing his annual beastmode performance in Spring Training. Do you think he’s recovered from his various ailments over the last few years?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably recovered right now. But, he’ll develop his aches and pains

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: We all like to see players performing at 100%, but it isn’t fair to project them forward as if they’ll remain at that level, especially if they have an achy track record

9:16	Comment From CMR Jeff, good article on Stanton’s homer. How far would that homer have gone if he’d hit it with an aluminum bat?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be able to answer because the baseball would have broken through my wall and hit me in the brain stem

9:17	Comment From Guest What’s Charlie Morton’s ceiling this year — if he figures out that split change to get LH batters out?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, against Morton, lefties had a .425 OBP

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: So, if Morton figures out how to retire lefties, then his ceiling will be as something entirely different from the previous Charlie Morton. He won’t even be recognizable

9:18	Comment From NEGL Better career WAR – Salazar or Wheeler ?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Salazar

9:19	Comment From quinceleather Who is better real world this year Calhoun or Arcia? And why don’t people believe n Qualls?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’ll take Calhoun again

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: And people probably don’t believe in Qualls because he’s been worth negative WAR over the past four seasons

9:21	Comment From LJC Question about the huge TV deals teams are getting. Should teams be at all worried that this is a bubble situation? Or is this really just gold flowing to the teams that will boost all payrolls pretty much universally?

9:22

Jeff Sullivan: Better question for Dave or Wendy, who are smarter than me about business, but it seems to me even if cable were to collapse in the near future, then MLBAM would just step in and negotiate some in-market contracts that would still leave a lot of money flowing toward the baseball teams that want it or need it

9:24

Comment From Jerry
I get that it’s b/c of the division difference, but I was shocked to see the Rays and Mariners with basically the same playoff odds. Too high on Seattle right? I feel like Dave emphatically says no everytime anyone brings up the 2014 Mariners and wild card contenders, yet here they are, possibly not finished adding to the roster, and have same odds as Tampa Bay.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think Dave is a bit too wedded to his position, the result being that he’s too low on the Mariners, given how much he usually believes in the projections

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But the Mariners do have plenty of question marks, and if it matters, PECOTA sees a bigger difference between the two teams, in Tampa Bay’s favor

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see what the M’s manage to pick up for Nick Franklin

9:26	Comment From Perry Any interesting positional battles you are watching?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Not really — I’ve gotten over the idea of spring training roster decisions being a huge deal

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Anyone who wins a spot will still have to keep earning that spot into the regular season. Decisions can get reversed in mid-April

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: But I do think it’s incredible that the Dodgers are going to be starting Dee Gordon at second base

9:28

Comment From person
first reddit highlight: “Well, we’re still in the planning stages, and our first audience for this data is going to be the clubs. That said, we’ve publicly committed to distributing raw data, and we’re working on an efficient way to get it out there. It’s a lot of data, and we want to make sure it’s manageable for us and for end users.”

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Everything said since the announcement has been pretty promising. I’m looking forward to being completely overwhelmed and paralyzed by information/possibility overload

9:29	Comment From Merkles Boner how much do you hate Jeff Cirillo?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: not a tenth as much as I hate Scott Spiezio

9:30	Comment From Guest Doug Fister played catch today without issue and should return to the mound by the end of the week.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, he’s probably fine

9:31

Comment From Leone for Third
i know you first named your blog after justin leone. i have a short story about leone. as a kid (10-11 yrs old) i would go to rainiers games fairly often and one time, i got an autograph from leone, and he chatted w/ me for a good 4-5 minutes. it was super cool to talk to a real-life baseball player. but what was even cooler is that he remembered me each subsequent time i came down and talked to him, and asked me how things were going. justin leone’s a good dude

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: A year after the fact, Michael Saunders remembered me from getting drunk and talking about NHL ’94

9:32	Comment From Slack Schpeinke Braves look like a perfect storm for Ervin. They’d be silly not to pursue him now. Their rotation may be down to Teheran, Wood & Garcia…

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Thing about Ervin Santana is he’s not great

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: There are always options, and he’s the only one that would cost the Braves a first-round draft pick

9:32	Comment From booya what is the earliest you see Gregory Polanco getting the call?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Well the earliest would be opening day, but I figure he’ll be in Pittsburgh around the middle of May

9:33	Comment From Pork Sale Has there ever been a case where a second opinion on ligament damage didn’t end in TJ or failed rehab?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I think this is a particular case — Medlen’s had TJ before, and the result is that future MRI exams are pretty difficult to read

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: But your point is taken

9:34	Comment From Perry Aren’t the Orioles a good example of how crazy people get about teams doing “nothing” (who then wind up doing something!)?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: For a long time, the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Reds were having the same offseason

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Now if the Orioles get Santana they’ll have landed three of the “premier” free agents for six combined guaranteed years

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Not that Baltimore is the perfect fit for Santana, but there would be room for him

9:35	Comment From GianMarlo Stanfield I hit that one pretty good eh? What is the maximum distance (realistically) you think I could hit a baseball?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Under standard conditions, probably about 525-530 feet or so

9:35	Comment From Bill thoughts on Kevin Gausman, in the rotation for good come may? will he have a good year?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Very fond of him. Even if he doesn’t make the rotation out of camp, he ought to be in there before long

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Another example of how a spring-training roster decision wouldn’t truly be that significant in the long run

9:36	Comment From Guest Even if they think Beachy is okay, he was topping out at 87mph and threw less than 50% of his pitches for strikes.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Well, he was definitely hurt. There’s just a difference between pitching with inflammation and pitching with something that’s seriously wrong

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: If it’s just this inflammation, then he ought to be okay within a few weeks

9:37	Comment From Jim O is Stefen Romero athletic enough to be an everyday OFer? does he seem more like a platoon bat?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Be sure to remember that last year he OPS’d .776 in the minors

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll spend his career on the fringes

9:38	Comment From OHenry Spring Training stats be damned…is there anyone playing themselves into a position? Someone previously off the radar?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Dee Gordon played himself into a position

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: But the weirdest guys tend to be relievers. The rest of the spots tend not to yield surprising conclusions

9:39	Comment From _David_ How many wins do you estimate the (known) Walker/Iwakuma issues cost the Mariners this year?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Less than 1

9:40	Comment From Mack Mitch Moreland has a wRC+ near 130 in April/May the past two seasons before hitting the DL in June and struggling after returning from injury. Does he really need a platoon partner out of the gate?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Career 99 wRC+ over nearly 1600 plate appearances

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Hasn’t done crap against lefties

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: he’s a weakness more than he’s a strength

9:41	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision What is your favorite beer festival? Don’t say you’re not into them.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Well I’m usually not, because they’re usually crowded and awful, but I’m partial to Stone’s Sour Fest and anything in Hood River

9:42	Comment From _David_ Why is it that in the NFL giving up a first rounder gets you a pro-bowler in his prime, where in MLB it’s worth a fraction of what an average player gets paid on the open market? Is present value that important?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Most first-round football players are good. Most first-round baseball players never do anything

9:42	Comment From Jack Jason Heyward a dark horse for MVP this year?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Well he’s certainly not a favorite

9:43	Comment From Paulie Who’s the most exciting young player not named Trout or Harper?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Jose Fernandez?

9:43	Comment From Two in the Busch Cardinals won NL central by 3 games over Pirates last year. 2014 Projected standings says the Cards-Bucs spread looks like 4 games in 2014 – sound right, in your opinion?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Personally I think the gap’s a little wider, but the standings page is totally reasonable

9:44	Comment From Pork Sale I’m seeing Chris Carter popping up on lots of sleeper lists. His home splits were shockingly bad for a power guy at Minute Maid. Does he hit 35 homers this year?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: No he does not

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Unless you’re counting dingers in spring training and practice

9:45	Comment From revolu At this point who do you think will sign Santana

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Toronto

9:46	Comment From Craig C I got a first date this weekend. Give me some advice

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Smile

9:46	Comment From Seabro Pine State Biscuit biscuit, by chance?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Precisely!

9:46	Comment From Ny Name Is…. Who has the better overall career? G Polanco or G Springer?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Polanco

9:46	Comment From The Lime When will we get to see the staff picks for Division winners and WC favorites?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine we wouldn’t deviate from the projections very much, if at all. The projections are smarter than we are

9:47	Comment From Nick Brandon Phillips apparently played hurt for much of last year. Bounce-back season candidate? Not too bouncy…275/330/430?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Too high

9:48

Comment From Kate Upton: Fantasy MVP
How many years away are we from the Astros being legitimate contenders to win the AL West? Their on-season product has been terrible the last few years, but a lot of their higher level prospects seem pretty amazing and the team should in theory be able to put out a rather sizable payroll if desired, given the size of the media market.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: 2-3 years. Remember that the Astros don’t exist in that division by themselves, so it also matters that they’re well behind four other organizations at the moment

9:48	Comment From Chris I read your article on receiving pitchers very interesting stuff, how bad will Buck be for the M’s considering Shopach and Blanco had bad yes and where do you see Zunino as a receiver higher or lower?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Zunino’s a a far better receiver than Buck, and Zunino will get far more playing time than Buck

9:49	Comment From clint h would the braves be able to get a starter on an undesirable contract? i am specifically thinking edwin jackson might be made available since the cubs arent in the playoff race.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Braves won’t want to pick up three years of that

9:49	Comment From booya What is faster, Ryan Howard going first to third while carrying Jesus Montero on his back or you answering questions?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the question

9:49	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy which player would be the most fun to see have a crazy Chris Shelton 10HR april out of nowhere?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Jose Iglesias

9:51	Comment From Evergreen Bowl Subdivision Who looks worse in the Red Sox v Marlins tif? I say Marlins for charging more during spring training

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Marlins look a little worse, but the Red Sox aren’t innocent

9:52	Comment From Celino Why is Steamer so down on Curtis Granderson? Projects him to be worth a handful of runs below average. ZiPS sees him as roughly a 3 win player over a full season, on the other hand.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that, in this instance, ZiPS has a longer memory. Good example of a guy with quite different projections, so, good example of where this stuff gets truly interesting

9:53	Comment From Randy If the Pirates had offered Burnett a QO and he accepted, couldn’t they have just traded him if they couldn’t afford it?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Well at the time, remember, it looked like, for Burnett, it was Pittsburgh or nowhere

9:54	Comment From Royal Farm Zips and Steamer seem to be fairly friendly to Jared Weaver this year. Last year wasn’t so kind, but do you think he bounces back?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: He was exactly the same in 2012

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Probably, he’ll be that guy again, maybe with an extra half-tick on his fastball

9:56	Comment From Bagwells Goatee Out of these three, which Astros prospect will be brought up first? Springer, Appel, Singleton.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Have to go with Springer, since he’s done the most at the highest level, but Appel could rise awful fast, especially given that there’s not a lot standing in his way

9:57	Comment From Randy Think Baez wins the 2b job? Or is AAA a certainty?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not breaking camp with the Cubs

9:57	Comment From Sadwick Could the Braves re-visit the idea of trading for Samardzija, or will the Cubs’ asking price still be too high?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Still too high for the Braves. No reason for the Cubs to really do anything until June or July

9:57	Comment From Slack Schpeinke and w/o him it may cost them the playoffs… classic case of getting hung up over the pick which will be late in round anyway, not to mention that they added a sandwich round pick for “losing” McCann!!

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: If the Braves miss the playoffs, it wouldn’t be because they didn’t sign Ervin Santana

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: That is making way too much of Ervin Santana

9:58	Comment From JoeD Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are the same thing right? Ugly 2012’s sandwiched between solid +3 WAR seasons (by FIP anyway). Would Baltimore have been better signing Santana for 1 year, hypothetically? (And yes I get that they might STILL sign him anyway.)

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but at that point, Santana wasn’t available for a one-year contract. His demands stayed too high for too long, so other teams went for similar pitchers who were being more reasonable with their expectations

9:59	Comment From Lars If the best D3 team played the worst MLB team 162 times, would the D3 team be able to win one game? If not, how many times would they have to play before winning a game?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I say two or three wins!

9:59	Comment From CW Any chance Taylor Jordan earns the 5th spot?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Why yes! A good chance!

9:59	Comment From Jim O can we stop worrying about the Viciedo/Saunders swap? that seems like a return to the mistakes of last season

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t realize people were worrying