FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 3/14/17

1:51

Paul Swydan:

Who do you think will win the World Baseball Classic?

Cuba (0% | 0 votes)

Dominican Republic (46.1% | 77 votes)

Israel (5.9% | 10 votes)

Japan (3.5% | 6 votes)

Netherlands (1.1% | 2 votes)

Puerto Rico (8.9% | 15 votes)

USA (18.5% | 31 votes)

Venezuela (1.1% | 2 votes)

I don’t care I’m not watching (10.7% | 18 votes)

I can’t decide!!!!! (3.5% | 6 votes)

Total Votes: 167

2:03

Paul Swydan:

Which movie debuting between now and the end of April are you most excited to see?

Beauty & The Beast (17.5% | 19 votes)

T2: Trainspotting (15.7% | 17 votes)

Life (6.4% | 7 votes)

Power Rangers (10.1% | 11 votes)

Ghost in the Shell (13.8% | 15 votes)

The Fate of the Furious (13.8% | 15 votes)

The Lost City of Z (8.3% | 9 votes)

The Circle (3.7% | 4 votes)

Sleight (0.9% | 1 vote)

Other (say in comments) (9.2% | 10 votes)

Total Votes: 108

4:24

Paul Swydan:

In honor of Pi Day, what is your favorite kind of pie?

Apple (20.4% | 39 votes)

Pecan (13.6% | 26 votes)

Sweet Potato (2.0% | 4 votes)

Blueberry/Strawberry/Cherry/other kind of berry (15.7% | 30 votes)

Chocolate Mousse (7.8% | 15 votes)

Pumpkin (9.9% | 19 votes)

Lemon Merengue (6.2% | 12 votes)

Rhubarb (5.2% | 10 votes)

Key Lime (12.5% | 24 votes)

Other (say in comments) (6.2% | 12 votes)

Total Votes: 191

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	Paul Swydan: I’m disappointed so many of you want to see the horrifying live action Beauty and the Beast,

9:01	Paul Swydan: FYI there’s a decent chance I lose power during the chat.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Over 50% of my town is without power. So far my neighborhood has skirted the danger.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: That movie looks horrible

9:02	Paul Swydan:

9:03	Paul Swydan: Agreed Jeff! I’d probably pick Life.

9:03	Keith: What would you with the Sox batting order? I think it would be some combo of Pedroia, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Betts, Ramirez, Bradley in the 1-6 spots and mix and match the next three.

9:03	Paul Swydan: I swear this was the first question.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Be happy that you could go with about anything and still win 90 games

9:04	Paul Swydan: I’d go Pedroia, Betts, Bogaerts, Ramirez, Benintendi, JBJ, Sandoval, Moreland, Catcher

9:05	Paul Swydan: You only have to alternate handedness when the hitters suck.

9:05	Paul Swydan: When you have 6 of the best hitters in baseball, just put the best ones at the top of the lineup.

9:05	ChiSox2020: According to the Fangraphs prospect rankings the Eaton trade was worth $56M FV and the Sale trade was worth $129M FV. Safe to say Quintana is worth ~$100M FV? That means, for example, NYY giving up Frazier, Mateo, Rutherford ($96M FV) is not a crazy ask.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that it’s safe to say that Quintana is worth ~$100M in future value. I’d say it’s safe to assume btw 50-100.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: No and I think that is one reason a trade hasn’t happened yet.

9:06	Heading for the Hills: NL 5X5 for this year $12 Grandal or $3 CHernandez. Also how long does Ottavino hold closer’s gig in Colorado? Thanks in advance.

9:07	Paul Swydan: I have more faith in Grandal, but if you think CHer is going to repeat his 2016 performance, that’s certainly a good price.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Grandal, Ottavino will have the role if healthy

9:07	Paul Swydan: Ottavino, I expect to hold the job as long as he’s healthy.

9:07	Paul Swydan: AGREEMENTS!

9:07	joe pera: bannana

9:07	Paul Swydan: I assume this was a pie flavor?

9:07	joe pera: what are your thoughts on rhett wiseman out of the nationals organization?

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t know about him

9:08	Paul Swydan: He was a 22-year-old hitter in A ball last year and he didn’t crush it, so I’d say he has a long road to the majors, but never say never.

9:08	Northsider: Shepard’s Pie!!

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: My system rates him as a non-prospect

9:09	Paul Swydan: Shepherd’s Pie doesn’t count IMO.

9:09	Heading for the Hills: Their Finest

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’m guessing this is a movie. I haven’t heard of it, sorry.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: As normal, I was lost

9:10	Hector: What’s easier? Convincing you that Trea is for real or not for real? Why does it feel right to think he could be an immense superstar?

9:10	Paul Swydan: It’d be easier to convince me he’s real because I already believe it. I am very bullish on his future.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Not real is easier because it is more likely. I think he’ll be good, but too much helium

9:11	mario mendoza: Your last Roto post was in 2011…. do you take fantasy questions? Anyway, I’m desperate, can’t decide… should I trade OF Harper, 1B Goldy, 3B Rendon for 3B Bryant, 1B Votto, OF Polanco in NL wOBA keeper?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I do! So does Jeff, and he’s a roto champ. Literally!

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the first three more by a large margain.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: That I am

9:12	Paul Swydan: Man that’s tough. Slight edge to Bryant/Votto/Polanco.

9:13	Paul Swydan: Wouldn’t fault you for rolling with what you have.

9:13	Chip: Is Byron Buxton the September guy, or 1st half guy?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Hoping for September guy.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Somewhere in between I think. I can’t a good feel on him

9:14	Trainman: Hey guys I could really use a question answered as just got hit by a Nor’easter and so close to baseball. Last keeper AL only

9:14	Jeff: Blueberry

9:14	Trainman: Last keeper 10 team AL only: $3 Park (who has mashed in ST), $2 berrios (who has looked strong) or $10 Profar (would only qualify at OF or 3B due to me having correa or semien up the middle). I’m leaning berrios.. but parks power potential and profars potential still intrigue me.

9:15	Paul Swydan: Whoops, didn’t mean to slide that blueberry in there.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: No on Parks

9:16	Paul Swydan: I guess Berrios, because cheap pitchers are cheap. But none of these is jumping out at me.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d lean Berrios just because I have a notion Profar may get moved at some point

9:16	Trainman: How much belief do you have in Sandoval being serviceable this year? Or is he not even worth drafting?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I don’t believe he will be serviceable enough to be worth drafting in fantasy. Keep him on your watch list.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Very little and depends on league depth. I not reaching for him

9:17

Mr. Fister: Eric stated on a chat earlier today that he saw Luis Robert as a FV 50/55 player. Do you agree with that assessment? Much of what I’ve read recently describes him as one of, if not THE best OF prospect in baseball. What scouting grades would he receive on his individual tools if he were eligible for these lists?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I’m in no position to disagree with anything that Eric has to say about any prospect. Especially a prospect I’ve never even heard of.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: An average major leaguer, not bad

9:19	Mr. Fister: Should I still feel comfortable drafting Tom Murphy in my minors draft? I’m assuming that Tony Wolters shouldn’t be too hard to de-throne once Murphy is healthy.

9:19	Paul Swydan: I’d probably try to find someone better than Murphy at this point.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so but watch the news on his injury

9:20	Multipi: Does something like a strawberry/rhubarb fall under strawberry, rhubarb, or other.

9:21	Paul Swydan: I don’t know. When I asked Jeff his favorite he said rhubarb, and I said like strawberry rhubarb? And he said NO NOTHING SWEET.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Jeff’s weird, is what I’m saying.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Strawberry/rhubarb is an abomination.

9:21	Mike Milligan: Thanks for the chat. How worried are you about Carrasco’s elbow?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes. Carrasco always seems hurt. Never gets close to 200 IP

9:22	Paul Swydan: Carrasco is a perennial stay away for me. As someone pointed out earlier tonight, Carrasco has one year where he’s topped 150 IP.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: And you’re welcome

9:22	Mr. Fister: I’ve never watched Dancing With the Stars, but if Bartolo Colon signed up, I just might…….Maybe

9:22	Paul Swydan: NOPE

9:22	Miky: So Lucas Giolito throws 91 mph fastball with basically no movement, has mediocre control and hitters easily lay off his curveball because he buries it in the dirt every single time. Is there still a top prospect hidden somewhere, or is this what he is now?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Jeff was watching him earlier today and wasn’t impressed, right Jeff?

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: That is what he was today. His mechanics were all over the place. Nothing has changed from last year.

9:24	BoJack Horseman: Strawberry Rhubarb? Get your head out of your ass Paul! Rhubarb doesn’t get a plus one!

9:24	Paul Swydan: Sorry Bojack.

9:24	Pat G: Cherry Cream Pie is my absolute favorite. Briermere Farms

9:24	Samsonov: Healthy Billy Hamilton steals 75 bases?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I’ll take the under.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe with a .350 OBP

9:24	Paul Swydan: BTW I’m doing a mock draft tonight – https://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/league/bo87nwcrj08vmx08/home

9:24	Paul Swydan: Not sure if that is the right link or not.

9:25	Trainman: Pie is good, but nothing like chocolate cake.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Try to focus, Trainman. Also, no, pie > cake.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: or lemon bar or brownies

9:26	Paul Swydan: Lemon bars and brownies are also both better than cake.

9:26	CasonJollette : Jeff, I’m going into my second year of an OBP league and considering your Tout Wars domination, what is the best way to prepare. I already have my dollar figures for my league format (10 team h2h OBP 9 Hitters) from the Auction Calculator using Depth Charts.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Look for any league bias’s from the past and don’t overpay. You may find high OBP players undervalued as people stick with AVG (like Bautista)

9:28	Bobby: Is Sam Travis the 1B in Boston sooner rather than later or do Morelands batted ball statistics offer a little optimism?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I fully expect to be complaining by July that Farrell is sticking with Moreland over Travis because one has #veteranpresents and one is a filthy rookie.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Moreland for a while. And if they need, they can get Hosmer for the playoffs

9:29	Billy Beane: I drafted Desmond before he got hurt. Is he worth eating a bench spot for now and using my one DL spot when the season starts or should I waive him and get someone who can contribute now? I like the prospect of him in Coors but a month feels like a long time.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: 4-6. No one else is worth a DL spot right now, maybe Price. You should at least be able to trade him to someone with an open spot

9:30	Paul Swydan: That’s a real tossup. If the rest of your team is on point, maybe.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: 4-6 weeks out

9:31	Billy Joe: Keith Law ranked Pizza and Sheppard’s “pie” in his best pie list…just awful

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Law being Law

9:31	Paul Swydan: To each their own. They’re technically pies, just not the kind I meant.

9:32	Von Schloss: What are the chances Snell, Honeywell, De Leon gives the Rays a pretty nice 1-2-3 in a few years?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Given pitcher attrition and injuries, I’d say unlikely, but here’s hoping!

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure anyone is a #1. More like three #3’s.

9:33	Tom: Who makes the playoffs first: Rockies or Angels?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Given the way the Rockies’ spring has gone, seems like it’d be safer to bet on the Angels for at least 2017. But if the Angels don’t make it happen this year, then I’ll say Rockies.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Angels but its close

9:34	Paul Swydan: How’s that for a cop out?!!?!?!

9:34	munenori kawasaki: what do you think jbj this year? Repeat of last year or more growth offensively?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Probably closer to a repeat. Which I think would be great.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I figured he’d regress some so taking down.

9:35	munenori kawasaki: long term and this year only who do you guys prefer in fantasy, lindor or bogaerts?

9:36	Paul Swydan: in a standard 5×5 it’s really close IMO. they do different things. if lindor ever gets a power stroke, he’s a no brainer.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Bogaerts, I think he will hit just a bit more.

9:37	Daddio: Would you trade Franco $1 for Buxton, also $1 in a standard 5×5 root auction. $275 team salary.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yes, I think Buxton has more upside.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:38	Guest: In a 12 team should I feel good about a harper, buxton, thames, peralta, mazara outfield?

9:38	Paul Swydan: It’s a risk heavy outfield to be sure, but it could be potentially very good.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Huge downside potential and good chance you get nothing from 3 of them.

9:39	Derek’s Jeter: Who has the better year: Arrieta or Lester? Why?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Lester. Because he’s a better pitcher?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Hey looks like I have the No. 1 pick in my mock draft. https://www.fantrax.com/fantasy/liveOnlineDraft.go?leagueId=bo87nwcrj08vmx08

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Arrieta, I think. Lester’s BABIP was crazy low last year. Also, Lester may be on the downward swing of his career.

9:41	Von Schloss: The most mediocre pie is better than the best cake.

9:41	Paul Swydan: I like this Von Schloss person.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: True

9:42	Minty: In our house we argue that a brownie has to be iced, otherwise it’s just a chocolate bar

9:42	Paul Swydan: That’s ridiculous Minty. Brownies are best without icing.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: No, a chocobar can be warm or it melts

9:43	Paul Swydan: BOOM! SCIENCE!

9:44	Sange76: Which order for these low round aces? Archer, Degrom, Strasburg

9:44	Paul Swydan: deGrom, Archer, Strasburg. I don’t draft Strasburg.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Low round, you play in too shallow of a league. Archer, Strasburg, deGrom

9:44	5 Run Homer: Best shortstop in baseball (no, Machado doesn’t count)? Asking because I’m watching the WBC and remembering that I love Lindor so much I can’t not have him #1.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I’ll vote Seager. But Lindor and Correa are right there. Bogaerts in the next tier.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Simmons work? His D is amazing

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I guess he should hit some.

9:47	Mark: Eloy and bellinger. Really good prospects or too much helium?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Really good, though most top 100 prospects have too much helium. Nature of business now.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Good prospects.

9:48	Luda: Need 8 keepers, already keeping Bryant (32), Rizzo (32), Turner (4), Piscotty (13), Cueto (21) and Oh (1). Choose 2 from $1 Dahl, $4 Baez, $8 Peraza or $3 Conforto ? Worried about Dahl’s injury but he’s still only $1

9:49	Paul Swydan: Dahl and …. toss up between Baez and Conforto. Whomever you think will play more.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Dahl and Baez, they are the most talented and you should have them both for decent prices for a few more years.

9:49	Minty: Real life is different from fantasy Paul, how good do you expect Benintendi to be for fantasy?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I don’t expect him to be as good in fantasy as he will be in real life because I don’t expect him to hit a ton of home runs.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I was thinking Alex Gordon prime like

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’ll take it!

9:50	Billy Beane: Kiermaier is getting 6/$50 extension from Tampa. That’s a steal for them, sorta, but Kiermaier was going to get robbed in arbitration because he’s defense first. Good deal all around.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree. The arbitration process is such BS.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that seems fair-ish. He might have made more on the open market, but he’s also been healthy for only 1 of 3 seasons, plus he’s defense first.

9:52	Paul: I thought I settled on Arenado with my last keeper, even with his first round cost because I know I’m picking last. Carlos Martinez has looked great, though, and has me reconsidering him with a 14th round cost. My others are Lindor 9 and Odor 11. H2H, 10 team, 5×5 OBP. Thoughts?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I guess my question is – are you going to get a better player than Arenado if you keep Martinez? If not, then I’d just keep Arenado.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: I would lean Arenado

9:53	Joe: Better chance to go 20/30 — Kiermaier or Broxton? Thanks!

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Kiermaier

9:54	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Buxton. I don’t see Kiermaier having 20 HR power.

9:54	Pat G: rebuilding in dynasty, would you trade away Urias for Senzel and Conforto?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:54	Paul Swydan: No. Urias is younger than both, and will probably be better than both.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I will take the hitters

9:55	Paul Swydan: Normally, I would too. But I’ll roll the dice with Urias.

9:55	Bob: Keep forever: D Murphy round 14, Dahl round 20, Mazara round 20. Pick 2. Thanks!

9:55	Paul Swydan: Murphy and Dahl.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:56	#coppyandthewhosaysno: Do you watch Walking Dead? Negan’s a horrible person, but are you dreading the possibility of his character being killed off?

9:56	Paul Swydan: No, I don’t like zombies.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Can’t take them seriously. Shaun of the Dead and Zombieland is all I can handle.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t walk. I did start Hell on Wheels, it will take 1/2 a year to finish

9:57	Paul Swydan: I can’t believe Apple is going to win. You people are so basic.

9:58	John: Did you like what you saw from Odor last season? Reason to believe he can AT LEAST duplicate, if not improve upon that?

9:58	Paul Swydan: He’s not going to improve until he learns to take a walk. I’m not holding my breath.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I think more of the same. Remember he is basically Adam Jones offensively.

9:59	Paul Swydan: OK guys, I gotta run to my mock draft. Thanks for hanging out. If you’re still bored, follow along with me!

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Bye

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/14/17