FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/15/16

9:00
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00
Paul Swydan: Jeff will be by in a couple of minutes.

9:01
Ed in Iowa: I have to teach two classes tonight. Gonna miss most or all of the chat for the second week in a row. My IQAR (Insightful Questions Above Replacement) is plummeting!

9:01
Paul Swydan: Oh, Ed. Ed, Ed, Ed. You promised you’d be here this week.

9:02
Paul Swydan: I forgot to send Jeff his chat invite. Whoops!

9:02
Medias Rojas: Why do I get the feeling I’m going to be seeing a lot of Travis Shaw this year? The only question is, primarily at third or first?

9:04
Paul Swydan: If everyone is healthy, I don’t think that will be the case. He may make the team as the 13th position player, but they’ve got to get Holt playing time too, and the most likely place for Holt to play is at third.

9:04
Paul Swydan: However, if/when players start dropping, we might see Shaw more.

9:05
Gavin: Austin Barnes has been hitting like crazy, .500 OBP with 4 homers in 26 PA. Is there any chance that he’s on the 25 man after spring training?

9:06
Paul Swydan: I guess it all depends on what they want to do with Ellis. If they’re ready to move on, yes. If not, I don’t see them carrying three catchers. Mainly because carrying three catchers is stupid.

9:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone and Barnes could make the 25 man. I am a huge fan

9:07
Jake M: How do you view the White Sox bullpen? How much of an impact can Nate Jones being possibly healthy for the year have?

9:08
Jeff Zimmerman: It is adequate. I think the Sox have other issues they will need to deal with.

9:08
Paul Swydan: I like Nate Jones a lot. Partially because I like yelling NATE JONES!!!!!! But also because he’s good. I like him and Robertson as a 1-2. Duke is good. I like Putnam. It’s not awesome 1-7, but it’ll do.

9:08
Rick Hahn: Adam LaRoche just quit. Thoughts on the decision?

9:08
Paul Swydan: Quit seems like a strong word, first of all.

9:09
Jeff Zimmerman: I am little surprised, but I he could be done

9:10
Paul Swydan: Second, I don’t think he’ll be hard to replace. He was projected at or near replacement level this season, and has been near or below replacement in two of the last three seasons. Definitely a solid career, but only the timing really makes this peculiar.

9:10
Paul Swydan: If he had retired in say, November or December, no one would have been surprised.

9:10
Erik: Too early to say that only major injuries keep Trout and Harper out of the Hall of Fame? Do players of their caliber and age ever just flame out without injury?

9:11
Paul Swydan: I think it’s too early to say that for Harper. I don’t think it’s too early to say that for Trout.

9:12
Jeff Zimmerman: Without injuries …… no, not really. And I agree with Paul that Harper has not done enough yet

9:12
Ceej : Seeing as how Peraza might be the starting CF, in an OBP league, how do you think his OBP/speed will play?

9:13
Jeff Zimmerman: I am not a huge fan of Peraza. It will be interesting to see how the Reds use him.

9:13
Paul Swydan: The only time he’s had a walk rate about four percent since leaving A ball was in the 25 plate appearances he had in the majors last year. In other words, I’m not optimistic at all about his OBP.

9:13
Kyle Schwarber: Can you envision any scenario in which the WSox are able to trade for me to replace LaRoche?

9:14
Jeff Zimmerman: No … none unless they move Sale.

9:14
Paul Swydan: To be honest, I’m not familiar enough with the White Sox’s farm system to say yes or no, but that’s certainly an intriguing idea. Alternatively, they could also trade for Travis Shaw.

9:14
Rockies fan: +/- 178.5 IP for Matz and Smyly

9:14
Paul Swydan: Combined? I’ll take the over. Individually, I’ll take the under for both.

9:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Under for both

9:15
Daneyko: best offensive season. Duda vs Trumbo. 2nd matchup: Belt vs K.Morales

9:16
Paul Swydan: I’ll say Duda and Belt.

9:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Tumbo, Morales

9:16
Paul Swydan: DISAGREEMENTS!

9:17
Brian: What do you make of Trevor Story? Is he Trevor Story!!!

9:18
Paul Swydan: Well it looks like he’ll be the Opening Day starter, and get at least a month or two to prove he can handle the job. The prevailing theory is that even if Reyes is found innocent and not suspended, that he’ll need to go to extended spring training to ramp up for the season.

9:18
Paul Swydan: That’s his opportunity. As for his talent – I like him, but don’t love him. But we’ll see.

9:18
Jeff Zimmerman: I like him better than most people. I could still him miss a couple weeks to mess with his service time.

9:19
Bruno: 12 team, 15 keeper dynasty. h2h standard scoring. Upcoming minor league draft. My team is young and ready to compete by this season or next. I have 2nd overall pick. I need SP and OF. I don’t mind drafting best available either. Would you please rank these available players based off of this? Rodgers Reyes benintendi brinson snell Bergman

9:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Rodgers, Beni, Bergman, Brinson, Snell, Reyes.

9:22
Paul Swydan: That’s tough, those guys are all grouped pretty close together. As a result of that, I would go with the ones who are going to graduate first. Reyes or Brinson seems like.

9:22
Con: I have tough choices in keeping Cueto and Wainwright. They have mid range prices ($16 and $14) when the top pitchers go for $35-42. What do you think I should do?

9:23
Paul Swydan: If you’re in it to win it this year, keep both. If you’re rebuilding, I would dump or trade Wainwright and just keep Cueto.

9:23
Jeff Zimmerman: I would keep them if there are no other choices. Both could be top 10 at the end of the year.

9:24
Elliott: ____% Byron Buxton is a stud this year?

9:24
Paul Swydan: 30? I want to believe, but I’m not hopeful.

9:24
Jeff Zimmerman: 10%

9:25
Angel Pagan: I am the sixth best outfielder on the Giants. I don’t show up to Fanfest ever, I don’t attend the World Series parade because I didn’t play, yet I’m the starting LF! Who do I have scandalous pictures of?

9:25
Paul Swydan: Wow, someone doesn’t like Angel Pagan.

9:26
Jeff Zimmerman: Wow, someone cares too much about Pagan.

9:26
Dave: Hi Paul, do you know if the park factors are being updated, and if so, when? Thanks!

9:26
Paul Swydan: We were just talking about this on Slack today. It should be updated soon.

9:27
Murdoc: Who you got for your bracket champion?

9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: They are all pretty close to the ’14 numbers

9:27
Paul Swydan: Me, because I’m not filling one out. Also, Holy Cross. Go Crusaders!

9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I have KU, using Pomeroy’s numbers

9:27
Banana: Do home/away split projections exist anywhere?

9:28
Paul Swydan: Yeah, we have them on our leaderboards. Just look at the “split” drop down menu in the middle of the screen.

9:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Isn’t it on the split’s page?

9:29
natsfan: What do you think of AL-only auction strategy where you get both Miller and Betances for K’s alone? Likely better numbers than most $20 starters, though obviously fewer innings

9:30
Paul Swydan: So, I guess it would depend on your categories. I love it if holds are a category, but in a traditional 5×5…I don’t know, you’re limiting the damage they can do. But I don’t hate it.

9:30
Jeff Zimmerman: They are great options. Their overall K’s will be better than some starters.

9:31
Lance Mannion: Your thoughts on whether some players perform better for small market teams and or can’t handle the pressure of a big market team or is it a myth

9:32
Paul Swydan: I doubt there is a way to separate this out in any large sample. But I don’t buy it either way.

9:33
Jeff Zimmerman: None to that idea. Now I do think some player’s party a little too much in some towns and their production suffers.

9:33
Rays fan in Canada: 12 team 5×5 roto league keep 3. I am keeping Aj Pollack (round 11) and Wade Davis (14). Who is my third keeper??? Danny Salazar (15) or Yu Darvish (18)

9:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Salazar, Darvish is not back yet.

9:34
Paul Swydan: I think there are equal risks, but I like the risk with Darvish (is he healthy?) over Salazar (is he legit?), and Darvish comes “cheaper,” so I’ll take him.

9:34
Paul Swydan: more. disagreements.

9:35
JCNY: Bigger upside in ’15-’16 Nola or Berrios?

9:35
Paul Swydan: Well, 2015 is over, but I’ll say Berrios.

9:35
Paul Swydan: I think Nola is good, but in a #2-#3 kind of way. Berrios could be better than that if it all breaks right for him.

9:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Berrios by a huge margain

9:36
George is Curious: What’s your stance on rostering old guys? I’ve never been hugely fond of it, but guys like ARod and Mauer were sitting floating around in my auction for peanuts and I couldn’t help myself. Any reason for optimism?

9:37
Paul Swydan: When you get deep into the auction, I’m looking for bargains. Often it comes in the form of old guys. Having said that, I would have stayed away from Mauer. I’m cool with A-Rod though.

9:37
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes with Arod, no with Mauer. Old guys, especially in redraft are huge bargains IMO. People are too afraid to miss on the next Correa

9:37
Tommy: How worried should we be about Lance McCullers right now?

9:38
Paul Swydan: I’ll let Jeff handle this one.

9:39
Jeff Zimmerman: I was worried before the injury. He has all the signs of injury. Throws hard, throws a ton of breaking balls, was injured last season, and has not established himself.

9:40
jim: im a rebuilding squad with gallo, crawford, and turner in the minors. with my first prospect pick, should i go after a guy like Aj Reed who will bring me impact right away, or a higher ceiling guy like Brinson, Benetendi, Rodgers, Kepler.

9:40
Paul Swydan: I don’t know that those guys have a higher ceiling than Reed. I would probably go with him.

9:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul, Reed is even with them and closer to the bigs.

9:41
daneyko: do you think Starlin Castro is a good fit with the Yankees ? Where do you see him in the offensive lineup ?

9:42
Paul Swydan: Yeah definitely, that was a nice pickup for the Yankees. Don’t know about batting order. I haven’t paid that much attention to spring training, because I find it draining. I’ll pay more attention in the last couple of weeks of March.

9:42
Jeff Zimmerman: Castro is fine with the Yankees and they can afford the depth. I think he will be the 9th hitter, but not sure at all.

9:43
Kenneth Lam: If the two of you were in Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins’ shoes, will the two of you try to resign José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación even though Joey Bats’ contract demand is rumoured to be a 5 years for $150 million and EE have stated that he wanted to finish his career as a Blue Jay?

9:43
Paul Swydan: I would certainly be trying to, yes. I don’t think either should be allowed to walk without making a serious run at them.

9:44
Jack: 12tm 5×5 roto dynasty. I give Yu and Hanley for Choo and ARussell. Only SS on roster is JCraw right now. Need more than Choo or give less than Hanley? Thanks.

9:44
Paul Swydan: I mean, it’s probably fine as is, but if you can do better than Choo, do it.

9:44
Jeff Zimmerman: No on that Bats contract, his demands are insane right now. I would consider EE though. The Jays could end up with 2DH’s soon

9:45
Jeff Zimmerman: It all depends on how much the other guy loves Russell in dyansty

9:45
Dr Evil: The NESN guys on the ST broadcast were thinking hitting Bogaerts 4th was a good idea. Come regualr season that is kind of nuts, no?

9:46
Paul Swydan: It’s not nuts, but unless they’re that convinced that Xander is growing into his power right now, I would hit him third and Ortiz fourth.

9:46
Jeff Zimmerman: Batting orders are the most overrated comments. It doesn’t matter one bit

9:46
Brian: Would you trade JP Crawdord for Alex Reyes, Cardinals pitcher! For ever keeper

9:46
Paul Swydan: Nope, keep Crawford.

9:46
Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:47
Brian: Pick a side, OBP and total bases keeper league, standard pitching stats. I have no chance. I get Severino and Thor, he gets Sano. Sano is my second best keeper. Would you do it?

9:47
Paul Swydan: No, keep Sano.

9:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Keep the hitter

9:48
Gary: Lots of Giolito hype. Would you rather have him than Syndergaard? Are they comparable?

9:48
Paul Swydan: I would rather have Syndergaard. One, Syndergaard is already in the majors, and two, he hasn’t had Tommy John surgery yet.

9:48
Paul Swydan: As to their comparability, sure, they’re both young, hard throwing right-handed pitchers.

9:48
Jeff Zimmerman: They could be the same. Tough to decide between the two

9:49
Fantasy Guru: Really stuck on my Keeper decisions for this year, pick 4 of the following, their draft penalty for keeping is in (); Arrieta(3), Syndergaard(19), JoFer(15), Machado(9), Trout(4), EE(3), Sano(25), Betts(7)…HELP!

9:50
Paul Swydan: Trout, Betts, Machado, Sano.

9:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Trout, Macado, Betts and Thor.

9:50
Paul Swydan: If you realllllly want the pitcher, take Jose Fernandez over Betts.

9:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Sano at 25 is good also. Maybe 4 hitters.

9:51
Jess: I’m a 40 year old man with a crush on 20 Cristian Arroyo. 1. Am I going to hell? 2. Is the crush worth it?

9:51
Paul Swydan: I don’t see why you’d be going to hell for liking a baseball player.

9:52
Jeff Zimmerman: No and No

9:52
Hanna: Where can I find pitch sequences for specific abs?

9:52
Paul Swydan: Do we not have this?

9:53
Paul Swydan: Hmm, I guess we don’t. It should be in PITCHf/x I thought, though. Jeff?

9:53
Jeff Zimmerman: Brooks baseball. Goto Pitchf/x tool and find the pitcher in at the time. Then select detailed sequence…. looking up example

9:54
Paul Swydan: I was going to say Brooks. Damnit. Oh well.

9:54
LudeBurger: who you got, deGrom/Semien or Rendon/Quintana?

9:55
Paul Swydan: Wow that’s pretty even. I’ll take deGrom/Semien though, just because Rendon’s health still makes me skittish.

9:55
Jeff Zimmerman: Rendon/Quintana, but close

9:55
Bruce Bochy: Mac Williamson starts how many games this year? Projections if given opportunity?

9:57
Jeff Zimmerman: 60, maybe. 5 HR, looks like .250 AVG

9:57
Paul Swydan: I would say somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 games. Realistically, the Giants are going to keep him stashed in Triple-A until there are injuries.

9:57
Hanna: Which Yankee game is a better watch? Opening series vs Astros or June series vs Angels?

9:57
Paul Swydan: As in attending at the ballpark? I would say June vs. Angels. It’s nicer weather plus Mike Trout.

9:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Go with the weather in July

9:58
Paul Swydan: If you’re going to go opening series, try to pick a day game if possible. At least then you won’t be frozen.

9:58
Jason: 12 team league, how do you like my staff, can it help win a title?: Cole, Keuchel, T Ross, C Martinez, R Iglesies, Severino, Smyly, Desclafani, E Ramirez

9:59
Paul Swydan: I like this staff a lot. Good top end, good middle, good bottom. Well done, Jason.

9:59
Jeff Zimmerman: It will be tough without one of the top 12 studs. It will be good though. Could use some help with top closers.

10:00
gest: Have you heard anything on if the Orioles will move Machado to SS at any point this season?

10:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing yet

10:01
Paul Swydan: I think that ship has sailed. Much like this chat, actually. Sorry to cut it off hard right at 10, but there is still much work to be done tonight and not a lot of time to do it in. Thanks for hanging out, and we’ll see you next week!

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Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.

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