FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/22/16

9:02
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:03
Also Paul: Paul – I just swapped Odorizzi for Puig (same $ values). I have pitching depth, but Odorizzi was cheap and prime keeper material. Tell me that was (at least a little) smart?

9:03
Paul Swydan: I like it. I like Odorizzi, but I’m not in love with him.

9:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Good move. Puig could be a top 12 talent, not Odorizzi

9:05
Spyro: 6×6 Keeper League (OBP replaces average+BB)….we get to keep 4. Who do you leave out in this list: Altuve, Machado, Sale, Fernandez, Springer?

9:05
Paul Swydan: Gotta be Springer.

9:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Fernandez or Springer, leaning Springer.

9:06
Paul Swydan: Unless you are worried about Fernandez, I guess. But Springer has the same injury concerns.

9:06
Matt: Adam Conley or Jared Eickoff (sp?) – Who’s is more likely to have a breakout? Who’s long term benefit is higher? More likely?

9:06
Jeff Zimmerman: I like Eickoff more.

9:06
Paul Swydan: I’ll say Eickhoff, because I think he’ll get more run.

9:07
Matt: Duda at $2 or C Santana at $4? Who do I drop. Both salaries are fully recoverable, and they’re bench depth. OBP/TB instead of AVG/HR

9:07
Paul Swydan: Tough one! I think Duda.

9:08
Jeff Zimmerman: They are fairly equal IMO. If OBP is needed, Santana. If power, Duda.

9:08
Paul Swydan: The OBP makes me want Santana more, especially since you’re not getting penalized for his crappy average.

9:08
ja’crispy : Am I wrong for being excited about valencia?

9:09
Jeff Zimmerman: You can sort of e excited as long as you remember it is Valencia.

9:09
Paul Swydan: It’s never wrong to be excited about baseball. Having said that, I wouldn’t expect too much from Valencia. Unless you’re talking about the oranges.

9:09
Daniel: Do the Dodgers Extend J Turner? Yrs/AAV? Seems like the almost have to due to the lack of available 3b this coming off season

9:09
Paul Swydan: I don’t know that I’d call it at the top of their list of concerns, but I certainly like Turner.

9:10
Jeff Zimmerman: I think they can find someone better like a converted SS.

9:11
Big hurt: I just traded Adam jones a rod and latos for Kyle segar in an 18 tm 25 keeper dynasty. Think I gave up too much? Already had betts and buxton for cf and no 3b so it was a positional need. Thx

9:11
Paul Swydan: I mean you basically traded Adam Jones for Seager, which I think is fine and perfectly defensible.

9:12
Jeff Zimmerman: I would have done it.

9:12
daneyko: with a strong ST, Juan Nicasio should be a starter. What number to expect ?

9:12
Jeff Zimmerman: My view for tonight’s chat BTW:

9:13
Paul Swydan: No, I’ve seen that movie. I’d leave Nicasio in the bullpen.

9:13
Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul, Nicasio should not be starting

9:14
AKA22: Anthony Rendon… fantasy draft bargain with big upside or injury prone and still overrated from a 2014 he can’t repeat?

9:14
Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Both

9:16
Paul Swydan: Sorry, trying to insert my own picture and I can’t do it. My view is less cool than Jeff’s, let’s just say.

9:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Image icon on the bottom

9:17
Oppo Tacos: You guys worried about Samardjia? Seems the struggles last year have continued into spring training. Any chance he is just working on certain pitches, and that’s why he is struggling this spring?

9:17
Paul Swydan: No, I think he’ll do fine in San Francisco.

9:17
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is fine and IIRC, his velo is up. Checking now

9:17
Cason Jolette: Do you think Franco made any real adjustments as Fagerstrom implied or is all just noise? Is there a chance he could become an Encarnacion type of hitter?

9:17
Paul Swydan: I like Franco and I like August. I want to believe.

9:18
Jeff Zimmerman: I think Franco has the ability.

9:19
Ryan: sitting in my art 100 class right now, can you guys tell me something neat about the diamondbacks to cheer me up?

9:19
Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, Sam_______ velo is up 1 mph this spring compared to last year. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jg67sqoaBgi8mWOfnUmBDr7dPtVxzwu_zijxA3DyxsI/edit?usp=sharing

9:20
Jeff Zimmerman: The combo of Brito and Ziegler should fry a few hitters timings.

9:21
Paul Swydan: The Dbacks have three of the best 40 or so players in baseball. They have stabilized their catching situation, which is more than you could say about their catching last year. Jake Lamb could still be decent, and you have to hope in Tomas. Daniel Hudson is a player that anyone can root for, and Shelby Miller may be the most hate-watched player in all of baseball this year. Who could beat that?

9:21
Dr Evil: Question on depth chart playing (or PA); does Fangraphs manually adjust them up as well as down? Some players have higher PA’s than both Steamer and ZIPs which seems odd (I understand adjusting them down for platoons or to move folks between positions)

9:22
Paul Swydan: Yes, the depth charts are manually adjusted, sometimes on an hourly basis. We do the best job we can. Steamer and ZiPS are separate forecasts.

9:22
Jeff Zimmerman: We can adjust them up or down.

9:22
Doc: Which player(s) do you think are total superhero nerds? Like own all the comics and buy all the merch

9:23
Jeff Zimmerman: Corbin I know for sure

9:23
Jeff Zimmerman: Greinke seems like he would

9:23
Paul Swydan: No clue.

9:23
Jeff Zimmerman: Harvey probably has some Batman stuff

9:24
Paul Swydan: ha

9:24
Paul Swydan: Probably just given to him though.

9:24
Paul Swydan: He doesn’t strike me as a big reader.

9:24
Steve: Kept Odor for a 17th in a 12-team points-based keeper and traded off Bogaerts (could have kept for a 10th). Don’t have a SS heading into the draft. Right move?

9:25
Paul Swydan: Breaking my heart!!! I mean, they play different positions, so I don’t see how the two things are super related, but I guess I like keeping a 17th round pick instead of a 10th.

9:25
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know, could be. It seems to me to be more 2B around than SS.

9:25
Jon: Brightest 3-Year window at the time (before the season)?:
2012 Tigers
2013 Nationals
2013 Dodgers
2014 Pirates
2016 Cubs

9:26
Paul Swydan: It’s hard for me to remember all the ins and outs of each, but I’d say the hype was strongest around the Nationals or Cubs.

9:26
Jeff Zimmerman: 2013 Nationals

9:26
Oppo Tacos: A few years ago I bet a friend that Matt Moore will win a Cy Young at some point in his career. What are my odds of winning this bet?

9:27
Paul Swydan: I would say .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 percent. I am not a fan of Matt Moore, at all.

9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: Whoa, just saw an insane wind aided HR to CF, good 420 ft from a college kid

9:27
Jeff Zimmerman: None unless it is in the Korean league

9:27
Aunt Jessie: If I’m ostensibly for Cleveland, do I wear my a’s shirt or my SF shirt to Kcr @ Cle tomorrow in Goodyear?

9:28
Paul Swydan: San Fran. If you’re ostensibly for Cleveland, don’t wear an AL shirt.

9:28
Jeff Zimmerman: The clean one

9:29
Jasper: Hey fellas! Does Montreal not count as an international city? I might lean that way if given the choice, but overall it would be really difficult travel-wise to expand outside of North or Central America.

9:29
Paul Swydan: Oh, I guess so. But I more meant “new” international city. Sorry, I guess I worded that poorly.

9:29
Jeff Zimmerman: It counts, but I think they lost their chance for expansion.

9:30
Paul Swydan: FWIW, I think Mexico City/San Juan/Havana/Santo Domingo is really only an inconvenience for the A’s and Mariners (assuming it’s the Rays who move), and they’re already more or less boned travel-wise anyway, so whatever.

9:31
Paul Swydan: I estimated the miles difference once, and it wasn’t a huge deal, but I’m also biased.

9:31
Paul Swydan: I very much want a team in Santo Domingo, with team president Pedro Martinez.

9:31
Cason Jolette: Is this the year Springer breaks out?

9:31
Paul Swydan: If he stays on the field!

9:32
Jeff Zimmerman: I would bet on ’17 before ’16

9:32
Jeff Zimmerman: I want to see him play healthy for a few months first

9:32
Biff: Are you worried about Justin Upton transitioning to the AL?

9:33
Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, I looked into the transition a few years back and nothing to players struggling. It is in the FG+ archives.

9:33
Your mom: Does Wacha have any further upside?

9:34
Paul Swydan: Hi mom!!!!! No, he doesn’t.

9:34
Jeff Zimmerman: No

9:34
Anthony : Longterm: Vince Velasquez or Lance McCullers? Thanks.

9:35
Paul Swydan: I’d say McCullers. Jeff would say McCullers’ arm is going to fall off, so Velasquez.

9:35
JCNY: Took Salazar as my #2 (after Kershaw) with Lester, Gray, Carlos Martinez, and Hamels still on the board. Sane?

9:35
Paul Swydan: I think the numbers support this, but I’d have taken one of the others. I don’t trust Salazar anymore.

9:36
George Harrison: SI predicts Astros over Cubs in the World Series this season. Is that where you two are as well?

9:37
Paul Swydan: No, not at all. If you put a gun to my head right now, I’d say Pirates over Red Sox. Thankfully, a gun isn’t to my head, so I’m going to sit on this for a couple more weeks.

9:38
zach: Pederson or Buxton in a keeper league that has hits+walks category along with the other traditional categories?

9:38
Paul Swydan: Pederson.

9:38
Jeff Zimmerman: Pederson …. I think

9:38
Bartwheat: What major league would you want with you in a back alley brawl?

9:39
Paul Swydan: Miguel Olivo. I would not want to fight that dude.

9:39
Jeff Zimmerman: Kyle Farnsworth

9:39
Paul Swydan: Miguel Olivo once passed a stone MID GAME and kept playing. You can’t train crazy like that.

9:40
Jeff Zimmerman: and the whole biting another player thing

9:40
Blair: Who wins the White Sox SS job? If your answer is Rollins, could he have some sneaky value this year?

9:40
Paul Swydan: Yeah, that too..

9:41
Paul Swydan: We do have Rollins winning it. And …. no. He’ll have as much value as you’d expect. Which is not much.

9:41
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be Rollins, but I don’t think it is top 12 value, maybe top 18

9:41
My Socks are Red: Which Red Sox bust from last year is most likely to bounceback this season?

9:41
Paul Swydan: Hanley for sure.

9:41
Jeff Zimmerman: Bounce???? Got be Pablo

9:41
Paul Swydan: Oh Jeff.

9:42
Bryan CA: The Giants are now grooming Christian Arroyo as a super utility guy this year in double A. Would it make more sense to focus on 3b and make Duffy the team Zobrist?

9:43
Paul Swydan: No, I think you need a unique player mix to have a Zobrist. I don’t see that for the Giants. Most of their guys play every day.

9:43
Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think it is better to do the testing in the minors. The Giants have a shot at the playoffs and don’t need to be doing fancy things

9:43
Paul Swydan: Or, put another, possibly better way, the Giants have everyday players at most positions, as opposed to platoons.

9:44
Scott: I have an NL only scoresheet league and have always loved the lure of prospects but think there is also a saturation point of too many or drafted too soon. I understand there’s no hard and fast rule but do you follow any internal rules for drafting minor leaguers?

9:45
Paul Swydan: In Scoresheet, I try to acquire about 10 prospects with the hopes of trading them throughout the season for reinforcements.

9:45
Jeff Zimmerman: It really depends on the team. I will concentrate on minor league hitters though. I feel I can find pitchers and hate when my minor leaguer has Tommy John.

9:46
Mr. Wrestling IV: 13 team slow snake draft. Already taken Goldy and Posey. With pick 29, do you go Gordon/Abreu/Springer and see what pitchers are available at 50/55, or take Greinke/Bumgarner/Price now?

9:47
Paul Swydan: Abreu or pitcher. I wouldn’t go that high on Gordon or Springer.

9:47
Jeff Zimmerman: I would take Gordon or Abreu knowing I will need to pitcher at the 50-55 picks

9:48
Paul Swydan: But you don’t NEED Abreu. So it’s tougher for me to be 100% in on Abreu.

9:48
Mr. Wrestling IV: Is Tyler Duffey worth anything? Jeff’s piece about his curveball got me jazzed, but he’s clogging up my final roster spot. Cut him with no regard for human life?

9:48
Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:48
Jeff Zimmerman: Cut him if need be

9:49
Billy Jo Tolliver: Bumgarner & Travis or Soler, Story, Appel & Maurer

9:49
Paul Swydan: The Bumgarner/Travis side, I think. The other side is the poo-poo platter.

9:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, not total poo-poo, but lopsided to the MadBum side. I do think Story and Soler are the 2nd and 3rd best players in the trade (Assuming Devon Travis)

9:51
Paul Swydan: Still love me some D Travis

9:51
The Cincinnati Kid: _____% chance Trevor Story is the Opening Day SS for the Rockies

9:51
Paul Swydan: 99.5%

9:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Low low, 99.9999%

9:52
Brian: Forever keeper, standard categories except ops added, I have top two picks. In a vacuum, go Thor, Sano, Puig, or cole with those two?

9:52
Paul Swydan: Sano for sure. And then …….. Gerrit Cole, if that’s the Cole you mean.

9:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I would go Sano and Thor

9:54
BakedBean: I really think this is the year that Joe Kelly puts it all together and reaches his potential. Am I crazy?

9:54
Paul Swydan: Yes, and what’s worse, you’re now banned from this chat! Joe Kelly is terrible.

9:55
Jeff Zimmerman: Joe Kelly has nothing to put together

9:55
Paul Swydan: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

9:55
Ryan: If the Red Sox start 0-6 vs Kluber Carrasco Salazar and 3 game in Toronto, does Farrell get fired?

9:55
Paul Swydan: No, too easy.

9:55
Larry Eagle: The sad thing is, Joe Kelly has put it all together. Then he realized that what he put together was a Joe Kelly season.

9:56
Jeff Zimmerman: No on the firing

9:56
Sean C: Wut? Thor>Cole

9:56
Paul Swydan: Forgive me, but I want to see him do this for a full season.

9:57
Jeff Zimmerman: I will take the K’s

9:57
Paul Swydan: Only God can judge me now.

9:57
BakedBean: wtf you can’t ban me

9:58
Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:58
Paul Swydan: Ssshhhhhhh, we like pretending. Just don’t ask Joe Kelly questions. Joe Kelly is awful.

9:58
Paul Swydan: Joe Kelly could win Cy Young this year and I’d still hate him, much like when Ellsbury nearly won MVP (but he didn’t cause he’s a loser)

9:59
Bombsquad: Which two young pitchers are you drafting in a keeper league that will produce this season with ace potential in a few years? Carlos Rodon, Joe Ross, Raisel Iglesias, Shelby Miller, Taijuan Walker, Jose Berrios,

9:59
Paul Swydan: Bombsquad, eh? When’s the new Public Enemy record dropping?

9:59
Paul Swydan: (Jeff has no idea what that sentence means)

9:59
Jeff Zimmerman: Berrios and Iglesias.

10:00
Paul Swydan: Rodon and Iglesias

10:00
Jeff Zimmerman: Basically, which two pitchers will be good now and in the future

10:00
leslie: Gee whiz. I have asked two separate questions about closers and didn’t get a single answer. I ask real baseball questions, and you guys answer back alley fight questions? 🙁

10:00
Paul Swydan: I’m sorry, I’m trying to stay away from closer questions this year. They exhaust me.

10:01
Gavin: As a Dodgers fan, how worried should I be over injuries?

10:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Thank you Paul

10:01
Paul Swydan: Honestly, I’d be a little concerned. I agree with Joe Sheehan that the Dodgers have huge bust potential this year, and I thought that before the injuries started piling up.

10:01
Jeff Zimmerman: The Dodgers seem to always take chances on injured players. It is what they do. It works sometimes. Most of the time it doesn’t

10:02
BakedBean: Favorite Billy Joel song?

10:02
Jeff Zimmerman: The one which is over.

10:02
Paul Swydan: See now that’s a question. I have to say “Uptown Girl,” because it’s the only Billy Joel song I used to spin at house parties. (Girls like it, is why.) Second place would be “We Didn’t Start the Fire.”

10:03
Paul Swydan: JEFF IS NO FUN!

10:03
PJ: Does anyone think Kevin Pillar could breakout this year in Toronto hitting lead-off?

10:03
Paul Swydan: I think he might be a little better than last year, but he’s mostly what he was last year. I don’t see a dramatic breakout beyond that.

10:04
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t like him in Toronto. They need a high OBP guy and let the rest of the team knock him in.

10:05
Paul Swydan: Hey, I think that’s going to do it for us tonight. Before we go though, I need to shoutout Mr. Zimmerman here for a minute. I’m reading the Jeff Passan book right now (I’ll have a review of it up on THT on April 5th), and Jeff Zimmerman has been referenced twice in the first 78 pages. We are all pretty lucky to get to read Jeff Z’s analysis every year. Thanks for being awesome, Jeff.

10:06
Jeff Zimmerman: You are welcome Paul. Thanks for editing it.

10:06
Paul Swydan: Hahaha. Night everyone.

10:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Bye everyone





Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.

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