FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/29/17

by Paul Swydan

March 29, 2017

5:50

Paul Swydan:

What is your favorite Arnold Schwarzenegger movie?

The Terminator (13.1% | 27 votes)

The Terminator 2 (23.7% | 49 votes)

Predator (16.5% | 34 votes)

Total Recall (8.7% | 18 votes)

The Running Man (4.8% | 10 votes)

True Lies (8.7% | 18 votes)

Kindergarten Cop (12.1% | 25 votes)

Twins (3.3% | 7 votes)

Commando (2.4% | 5 votes)

Other (6.3% | 13 votes)

Total Votes: 206

5:54

Paul Swydan:

What is your favorite Julia Roberts movie?

My Best Friend’s Wedding (4.9% | 8 votes)

Steel Magnolias (1.8% | 3 votes)

Pretty Woman (26.3% | 43 votes)

The Pelican Brief (9.2% | 15 votes)

Conspiracy Theory (7.3% | 12 votes)

Notting Hill (11.0% | 18 votes)

Erin Brockovich (11.0% | 18 votes)

Eat Pray Love (2.4% | 4 votes)

August: Osage County (1.8% | 3 votes)

Other (23.9% | 39 votes)

Total Votes: 163

5:56	Paul Swydan: What’s your favorite continent? North America (46.7% \| 95 votes) South America (4.4% \| 9 votes) Africa (1.4% \| 3 votes) Europe (21.6% \| 44 votes) Asia (2.4% \| 5 votes) Australia (3.9% \| 8 votes) Antarctica (8.8% \| 18 votes) Other? (10.3% \| 21 votes) Total Votes: 203

5:57	Paul Swydan: How many teams will make the postseason this year that didn’t last year? Zero (1.9% \| 4 votes) 1-3 (84.2% \| 171 votes) 4-6 (8.3% \| 17 votes) 7-9 (0% \| 0 votes) All 10! (5.4% \| 11 votes) Total Votes: 203

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	CarrotJuice: How many PAs do you expect Conforto to get?

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: 300 … maybe. I am not optimistic

9:02	Paul Swydan: We have him down for 280. I am hopeful it’ll be closer to 400.

9:02	Zock Jr.: Isn’t this usually on Tuesdays? I’m usually at bar trivia reading this, but tonight I’m at boardgame night. I’m confused, Paul!!

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Goal achieved.

9:03	Paul Swydan: I had a fantasy draft last night, and I was also feeling like crap because my son has/had strep throat. Also Jeff might have had a conflict last night. So, there you go.

9:03	Baby Bull: NL Only Scoresheet Dynasty, Correa for Ozuna Tulo Harvey… which side you got?

9:03	Paul Swydan: The Correa side.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Confused on Tulo and Correa in the NL, but yes agree with Correa side

9:05	First Man on the Sun: Voted Xothique for continent

9:05	Paul Swydan: This seems to be some reference to a short story. I like your creativity.

9:05

Naron Aola: Aaron Nola bumped his velo up to 94 this spring but has been shelled in his last four spring starts. Is this an example of when not to overreact when a pitcher has a good K:BB ratio despite ERA, or is there a chance that if you’ve been watching his starts you can see him unable to consistently hit locations? Are there any real red flags with him this spring?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I did not watch one inning of spring training baseball, so I can’t answer the latter part, but I am a big Nola believer.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing I know of and as long as the velo is fine, don’t worry about. I saw Wainwright throw what I think were 12 straight change ups. The players are practicing

9:06	867-5309: Best Julia Roberts movie is Flatliners.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Believe it or not, picking the movies for the Julia poll was harder than the Arnold poll. She’s been in a ton of movies!

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see that

9:07	Pie: I’ve seen rumors that MLB.tv will be available to all fans with a cable login, regardless of whether or not they are in a blackout zone. Do you know if this is true?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s for all fans. I think some teams did work this out though.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Time to ask grandma for her cable info

9:09	Paul Swydan: Also, on the Julia poll, it was harder because she’s not the lead actress in every movie. Like, most of the Arnold movies were ARNOLD movies. But Julia wasn’t always the main person, ie Hook.

9:09	Eric: I’m sorry, but anyone who doesn’t pick Terminator 2 is just wrong. Easily one of the best action movies of all time.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Total Recall is a perfectly acceptable pick IMO.

9:09	Paul Swydan: And there is probably an older crowd who is pissed i left off Conan.

9:10	$11 Worth of Gnar: Danny Duffy’s year end line?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: 210K, 2.10 ERA, 22 wins, 0.98 WHIP.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Can the man who picked up in Tout Wars dream a little?

9:11	Paul Swydan: lol

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he will just continue on what he was doing in 2016

9:12	Bob: You’re stranded on a strange island. After wandering through the wilderness you come to the other side of the island. There is a tiki bar there, and the television is showing the Marlins playing in the postseason. Is this all a mirage or are you on Giancarlo’s private island?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Private island

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Private island

9:12	$11 Worth of Gnar: Julia Roberts, is that toothy girl from “Mystic Pizza”?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I just saw this line the other day and now I can’t remember what it’s from. Brooklyn 99?

9:12	Stubbs: Who’s the winner of the Aaron Judge/Aaron Hicks competition?

9:13	Paul Swydan: In the end, it’ll be Judge. To start, looks like it’s Hicks/service time suppression.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Hicks for now.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: and to lose

9:13	Delino Deshields: Why will Jurickson Profar be starting over me?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Because he was twice the #1 prospect in baseball and you weren’t? We know who you are and don’t know who Profar is?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Doesn’t sound that what reading the headlines. You may also be leading off

9:14	Paul Swydan: Oh really? I haven’t seen that.

9:14	Broseph: It’s a crime that Jingle All the Way wasn’t in the list of choices for Arnold.

9:14	Paul Swydan: I’ve never actually seen that one.

9:15	Paul Swydan: It came down to that, Commando and Conan for the last spot.

9:15	Angus: I am down to two keepers. NL only auction format, $260 cap. Rate these pitchers, all at $5. And does one or any stand out as must haves? Glasnow Ty. Anderson D. Hudson Ottavino

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: DeShields news: http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2017/03/28/delin…

9:15	Paul Swydan: If you’re wondering if any of these guys are worth keeping, I’d say Glasnow and Anderson are.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Glasnow, Anderson, Ottavino (Saves), Hudson

9:16	CarrotJuice: My favorite continent is Zealandia. You’ve probably never heard of it; it’s kind of underground. But it’s gonna be big, I tell ya!

9:17	Paul Swydan: Huh.

9:17	Paul Swydan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zealandia

9:17	Paul Swydan: It has variously been described as a continental fragment, a microcontinent and a continent.

9:17	Paul Swydan: I like the word microcontinent.

9:17	5 Run Homer: The only Schwarzenegger movies I’ve seen are the Last Action Hero and Jingle All the Way, and I’ve never seen a Julia Roberts movie

9:17	Paul Swydan: Get this person an Amazon video gift card, stat!

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: You are better person for not wasting your time.

9:18	Paul Swydan: What do you mean, how else could we have learned about the dangers of mining precious trivitium from Mars’ core?

9:18	Dronefinger: Scioscia has stated that Maybin will be the starting LF for the Angels. But judging by the spring numbers would it be a mistake if Revere isn’t starting in the OF somewhere? He has been on fire. Mayben has been the opposite.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Ben Revere and Cameron Maybin have been around long enough that we know who they are. Revere is not a starting OF. Maybin is…just barely. I don’t make a habit of siding with Scioscia, but I will here.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Quit judging players using spring stats. Also, quit assuming Scioscia will make rational decisions.

9:20	Dronefinger: Sleeper Wildcard picks?

9:20	Paul Swydan: You have to wait until the staff predictions piece on Friday!

9:21	Paul Swydan: (But I have a good one)

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: /Checks to see if he has down them

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: /Yep

9:21	Paul Swydan: Yeah you did. Good job lol.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Wait until Friday

9:21

Pumpsie Green: Very deep redraft. Slow draft in progress with 106 players chosen so far. All of the big SP names are gone with injured Price just gone. What is your feeling on Harvey coming of his surgery as opposed to McCullers, Porcello, Duffy, C-Mart, Cole Paxton, Hill, King Felix, etc. (Dont need you to rate each SP, just giving you a taste of the kind of pitcher left. This will be my 1st SP.

9:21	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t touch Harvey with a 10-foot clown pole.

9:22	Paul Swydan: I def wouldn’t take Harvey if guys like Martinez, Cole, and Hill are on the board.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: You are going to need a little upside, but I think Porcello will have the best stats at end of season of the group even with heavy Wins regression.

9:23	Eno!: On March 1, rotographs staff ranked Gsellman 108. Jeff was even lower. Today he suggested he could be top 20… What’s up with that?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Oh, Jeff getting called out.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Did you read the article where I stated I feared he was a half season wonder like TJ House or are just reacting to some tweets?

9:25

DJ: Do you believe MLB teams will someday be willing to provide housing/living accommodations (maybe some complex nearby?) for interns in their organization? They’d be able to hire on a more diverse range of talent out of college who could otherwise not afford the relocating process that comes with working in the MLB. Especially at the terribly low rates they are being paid currently. I feel so many potentially viable assets are being overlooked.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: No, that would cost money and why spend money when you don’t have to.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I do as well. To be honest, I have no idea. Certainly it wouldn’t be hard. there is generally a person in the baseball ops dept who helps rookies or incoming trade acquisitions secure housing when they get to the majors.

9:26	Paul Swydan: The front office who is willing to do that would be one that values a diverse set of opinions, and teams usually don’t want that.

9:26	Minty: Based on a combo of talent and managers, do you have more hope for Swihart or Conforto?

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Conforto. He is significantly more talented.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Boy, that’s a tough one. Earlier this week, I would have said Swihart, but then Leon homered twice in one game and Swihart can’t even get mentioned as a 1B replacement for Moreland. So I’ll say Conforto.

9:27	Scruffy-Looking Nerf Hurler: I have Rizzo, Pujols, Carp, Bird and Bellinger in a keep forever Dynasty H2H points league. Wanted to move Rizzo and one of my many SP for Harper and one of his many SP. Is that a deal worth pushing? If so, which side needs to give the better SP?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Sure. I don’t know who needs to offer the better SP, Rizzo for Harper is pretty fair. But try to get the better SP for your team. 🙂

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, straight up is fine

9:28	CaptainPeanutbutter: Dolph Lundgren > Arnold

9:28	Paul Swydan: Laughable statements are laughable.

9:29	BASEBALL!: What draft pick do you generally want in a snake draft 12 team league? I got the 10th pick and I am thinking of asking if the guy with the 12th pick wants to trade spots for the entirety of the draft. I like having back to back picks. What do you guys think?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Number 1, I want Trout

9:29	Paul Swydan: Yeah the only position I don’t like being in is the middle, 5-7.

9:29	snake: Better chance of a breakout. Skaggs or bundy?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Bundy

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Skaggs, I guess. I have little faith on pitchers improving on the Orioles or Angels

9:31	MIchael Corleone: What does your gut or instincts or whatever say to you about David Price this season?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’ll be impressed if he gets to 80-100 IP, but then again I was forever scarred by the Bret Saberhagen Experience, so I could just be pessimistic.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Out a month and comes back too early, struggles, goes back on DL near ASG, finally gets it together at the season’s end

9:32	Bones: Just traded Rizzo and Aaron Sanchez for Jose Abreu and Cueto in my 11-team, 26-player roto league. Will I regret making this deal?

9:32	Paul Swydan: I think you might, Bones. Sorry.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends on if you really need some SP but you may regret it.

9:33	report comment button: Why does fangraphs allow someone who not only consistently just instigates and trolls people but admits to it to continue posting?

9:33	Paul Swydan: We do our best. We don’t have the budget to have someone constantly monitoring comments. If you have a legit complaint with someone, please email via the contact form.

9:34	Dan: Curious on your outlook for Soler this year, and looking ahead? Can he hit 30 bombs this season? What does his future line look like? Same questions for Joc, if you have the time.. thanks!

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s really tough to completely ban someone if they have nothing better to do with their time than to troll baseball comments.

9:34	Paul Swydan: Yeah, that too. As long as they’re not being abusive…

9:35	Paul Swydan: On Soler and Joc, I think they have 30-homer potential, but I only think Joc has the chance to get there this season.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: They both have major contact issue they need to address.

9:36	hanstone: Can I get some love for the Brewers’ Corey Ray. Looks like he will fall to me in my Dev draft. Better than Brinson?

9:36	Paul Swydan: We’ll see. Longenhagen is a fan – he had him #20 – but he hasn’t played enough yet to know for sure.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Right now, probably similar. I would prefer Brinson because he is closer to the majors so we will know his talent level soon.

9:37	Evil Goatee Paul: Re: Julia Roberts. Where is Mystic Pizza?!

9:37	Paul Swydan: I had Mystic Pizza on there until the end and then switched in My Best Friend’s Wedding because she got an award nomination for that one.

9:38	Evil Goatee Paul: When is the last time you thought about Edgardo Alfonzo?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: 10 secs ago

9:39	Paul Swydan: It’s been awhile. I’ll never forget when my college roommate – who was a Mets fan — was crowing about Alfonso being part of the best infield defnese ever.

9:39	HappyFunBall: Other: Ocean’s Eleven

9:39	Paul Swydan: Yeah, see, she was a main actor in that movie, but not THE main actor, you know? So it lost out because of that.

9:40	Stevil: Schwarzenegger and Julia Roberts? Really? Some of us have higher standards.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Sorry to disappoint you, Stevil.

9:41	Jonathan : as a mets fan, what should I be most excited about this season other than watching Thor and DeGrom straight ruin hitters?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Gsellman

9:41	Paul Swydan: Cespedes and Granderson aren’t doing it for you, huh?

9:42	bearproof: Thoughts on Margot this year?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: or Duda or Reyes

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: I like him with the chance to steal quite a few bags.

9:42	Paul Swydan: I like Margot a lot.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Wish he was still on the Red Sox.

9:43	Bruce Bocce: Michael Brantley seems to be a-swingin’ again. What do you need to see before buying in? Thanks!

9:44	Paul Swydan: So, I asked my friend who writes about the Cleveland baseball club what he thought of Brantley’s first couple of games, and the answer was that he didn’t know because they went through this whole thing last year, and then Brantley didn’t play. So…yeah. Show and prove.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Some away power. Pitchers have pounding the outer half the plate. He needs to be able to drive those pitches

9:45	Austin: Running Man was a great movie. That and Total Recall WERE Arnold in the 80s

9:45	Paul Swydan: I love The Running Man. Sub Zero…now, Plain Zero!

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Was Commando when he said, ” Remember when I said I would kill you last … I lied”?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Hmmm…not sure.

9:46	Austin: Is this the year Jarrod Dyson finally carries, nay steals, my fantasy team to victory?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I believe in Jarrod Dyson.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, as long as he doesn’t get stuck in a platoon.

9:47	Julia Roberts: Erin Brockovich… the girls came to play!

9:47	Paul Swydan: Hard to argue with that one.

9:47	Chaps: T2 is a great action movie, but Commando is more quintessential Ahnuld. The ridiculous one-liners, extremely over the top action sequences…priceless

9:48	CarrotJuice: Who’s chatting on Monday? And is anyone chatting for the Cubs/Cards game?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Someone will be

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure who yet

9:48	Paul Swydan: We’re putting together the Monday schedule right now. I don’t think anyone is doing Sunday night, but I guess we’ll see.

9:48	Austin: Get to da choppa!!!!

9:49	Evil Goatee Paul: My favorite Schwarzenegger film is Field of Dreams and my favorite Julia Roberts film is Field of Dreams.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Solid choices.

9:49	Cru Jones: I know you will being do this poll next week, but no need. Best Lori Laughlin movie is Rad.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Like this solid choice: Jhoulys Chacin will start Opening Day for the Padres

9:50	Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t think more FLAN is the answer!

9:50	Paul Swydan: Poor Padres.

9:51	bearproof: Felix going to be able to adapt enough to still sneak into the HOF?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say no.

9:51	Paul Swydan: But I hope he does.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I think so

9:52	divine chanteuse: that “toothy girl” line was from parks and recreation. ron swanson said it.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Ah. I definitely have been rewatching Parks lately.

9:52	Grover: if Judge started the year in the majors, who would you be more bullish on, him r Renfroe?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Judge either way.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Renfroe, I am not a Judge fan at all

9:53	Pepper: If MLB had not limited Capps to one hop, then can you picture hip doing about a dozen hops and firing a 99 mph fastball from twenty feet from home plate? And what would the call be if he fell down on the 8th hop?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I don’t understand why he wasn’t limited to zero hops, but that’s just me.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Allow any hops is dumb.

9:55	Mr. Jackson: Hey I just traded Posey and Snell for Mazara, Weiters, and Jansen in a keeper league. Did I just screw up?

9:55	Paul Swydan: I think you might have, yes.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: It will all come down to how well Mazara plays.

9:56	It’sNotATumor: Over/under Pedro Alvarez 25 HRS?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’ll say under. I don’t think he’ll get enough playing time to get to 25.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Sounds right … over a bit

9:57	Colt Holt: New keeper league, 12 teams, 6*6 w OBP added. 5 keepers in same round drafted. Grabbed Harper (9th overall), Yelich (4th Round), Benitendi (8), Pederson (13), Swanson (14), Pineda (15), Peraza (16), Cotton (19). Does the focus on potential pay off, or burn me this season?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I think you’ll be fine. None of those picks strike me as a huge reach.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Maybe a little early for Benintendi.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Looks fine with an eye to the future

9:58	Evil Goatee Paul: Do you prefer a ballpark with a lot of foul ground like in Oakland or Cincinnati, or a ballpark with very little foul ground like Wrigley?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Of the two, small, foul outs are boring

9:59	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that I have a huge preference one way or the other. I’m certainly more used to a ballpark with normal or little foul ground, having spent most of my time in Fenway Park and Coors Field.

9:59	Paul Swydan: The only thing I don’t like is bullpens in foul territory. I don’t understand why that is even allowed.

9:59	Paul Swydan: I know why teams want it that way, obviously, but I wouldn’t allow it if I was the Commissioner.