FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/7/17

by Paul Swydan

March 7, 2017

4:01

Paul Swydan:

What is the best Netflix original show (Take 2)?

Bojack Horseman (14.0% | 31 votes)

Daredevil (6.3% | 14 votes)

House of Cards (26.2% | 58 votes)

Master of None (6.7% | 15 votes)

Narcos (4.9% | 11 votes)

Orange is the New Black (2.7% | 6 votes)

Stranger Things (26.6% | 59 votes)

The Crown (2.7% | 6 votes)

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (5.4% | 12 votes)

Other (NOTE: Black Mirror was disqualified because it was originally on British TV Channel 4) (4.0% | 9 votes)

Total Votes: 221

4:04	Paul Swydan: Are you surprised by Korea’s poor showing in their first two WBC games? Yes, I expected better (23.8% \| 53 votes) I honestly don’t know (36.9% \| 82 votes) No, I am not surprised they were upset. (9.0% \| 20 votes) I am not following the WBC (30.1% \| 67 votes) Total Votes: 222

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Zock Jr.: I wonder what show everyone is gonna complain about you forgetting this week…

9:00	Paul Swydan: I can’t wait to find out.

9:00	Dylan: Your lack of Jessica Jones disturbs me

9:00	Paul Swydan: JJ was in the poll last week and didn’t garner enough support to make the cut this week.

9:01	Maxamuz: If Black Mirror is DQd shouldn’t House of Cards also be?

9:01	Paul Swydan: My understanding is that Black Mirror on Netflix is a CONTINUATION of the British show, whereas HOC on Netflix is an ADAPTATION of the British show.

9:02	Paul Swydan: In other words, Black Mirror on Netflix started with Season 3, but HOC was an all-new show that started with Season 1.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Perhaps that is too fine a distinction for you, but that’s my distinction!

9:02	BoJack Horseman: GODDAMN IT PAUL, you can’t just revote! I already won. I’m not Ryan Gosling, I can’t handle having this award taken away from me!

9:02	Paul Swydan: Actually, “Other” won last week. You win nothing. You lose! GOOD DAY SIR!

9:03	BoJack Horseman: Is this because I missed last week’s chat? Is that why you’re doing this? Because I’ll have you know, I have a perfectly good excuse for missing last week’s chat! I was uh…………………… Drunk.

9:03	Paul Swydan: That is a great excuse, but no, I felt bad leaving out Stranger Things, Kimmy Schmidt and House of Cards.

9:03	Michael: How can you not include Peaky Blinders on your poll? Shameful.

9:03	Matt : Luke Cage matched Daredevils realism with an even better cast, although the story might have been a little lacking I don’t think there’s a single bad performance

9:03	P: House of Cards should be winning this in a landslide; I don’t understand.

9:03	#coppyandthewhosaysno: It’ll only let me choose one Netflix series, Paul! Orange and House of Cards for me. The Fall starring Gillian Anderson was great too, but also started on British TV.

9:04	First Time Poster: I found Bojack fake and overrated… Horsing Around was way better and much better for the family.

9:04	First Time Poster: Obligatory you forgot about Stanger Things

9:04	Paul Swydan: But I didn’t this time!

9:04	snid: What’s Netflix?

9:04	Paul Swydan: LOL

9:05	Paul Swydan: OK, time for real questions.

9:05

Jeremy: I’m trying to decide whether to cut or keep three guys in my 14-team, start-24, 5×5 league with a 340 budget at the auction. They’re all cheap — Mike Napoli (4), Jung Ho Kang (5), and Taijuan Walker (6) — but I have a surplus of points this year and am thinking that I can just pay more for higher-level players at DH, 3B, and #5SP. Cut/keep? Thank you.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t keep Napoli. I’m fine with keeping Kang and Walker, though I’m not really a big Walker fan at all.

9:05	MiguelCabrera: Do I become the first unanimous HOFer?

9:06	Paul Swydan: No. The DUIs alone would disqualify him in some people’s eyes. Getting swept in the World Series probably is enough of a demerit for others.

9:06	BobBobber: Auction league H2H 10 team keeper — SP#2 — $16 Darvish or $9 Hendricks?

9:07	Paul Swydan: $9 Hendricks

9:07	Paul Swydan: Always take the cheaper pitcher.

9:07

mike : I feel like the Jays are being slightly under-regarded this preseason. Full seasons of Liriano over Dickey, Upton as 4th OF and Grilli as set-up man, Sanchez with no innings limit, healthier Donaldson, Bautista & Travis, with Morales +Pearce to replace EE & Carrera, better backup C. I know they’re not exactly young, but what am I missing here?

9:08	Paul Swydan: While I mostly agree, I think you’re holding Donaldson to a pretty high standard there. Dude played in 155 games last year. How much healthier do you want him to be?

9:08	Ed: Hey Paul! Who should I keep as my last keeper in 10-team AL only (15 keepers, $260 budget, keep for 3 years): Swihart $2 or DeShields $1? Or, throw them both back?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I’d throw them both back, but if you’re set on keeping one of them, go with DeShields. Farrell hates Swihart, and if Vazquez or Leon hits even a little bit, he’ll find an excuse to bench/banish Swihart.

9:09

thunder: I’m not familiar with how baseball practices go. How do teams help players improve against opposite handed pitching? Conforto got little game time against lefties. Would the team give him 60% of at bats against lefties in practice or would they rather focus on strengthening against righties and hope that he comes into his own against lefties?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t have a good answer to this question, but if anyone else does, holla.

9:09	Zock Jr.: You guys are the straw that stirs the chat. 20 team, keep 12, H2H 8×8 categories. Is EE + Hendricks too much to offer for Machado?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Quite the opposite. I don’t think I’d deal Machado for that package. EE is on a new team and getting old, and Hendricks will probably never be as good as he was last year. Machado meanwhile is a guy who’s a no-doubt top tier keeper for the next 5-10 years.

9:10

Greg Maddux: Keeper Question: I am in a 5×5 Roto 10 Team Keeper League, where we can only keep 6 players. I am already bat heavy, as I have already picked to keep Goldy (1st Rd), Harper (2nd Rd), Bryant (3rd Rd), Rizzo (4th Rd) and Desmond (15th Rd). Should my last keeper be an Ace with a high cost – Strasburg (6th Rd); a high cost stud in George Springer (5th Round); or a low cost, high floor bat – Justin Turner (17th Round)?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I definitely wouldn’t keep Strasburg, he can’t stay healthy. I’d go Springer or Turner. The question wrt Springer is – will you get a better player than Springer in the 5th if you keep Turner?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Springer’s ADP is 34 right now, which in most leagues is going to be pre-5th round. http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp

9:13	Paul Swydan: So that is decent value, and you’re probably just better off hanging on to him in the 5th.

9:13	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Can you tell me about or point me to something on how scouting/drafting prep players from cold weather states differs from prep players in states like CA and TX?

9:15

Paul Swydan: The main way it differs is just the raw number of looks scouts have at each player. If a scout visits Mass. for a week trying to get a look at one guy in April, he might only get 1-2 looks because of the weather. In CA or TX, he can probably get more than that, and it is also easier to work out those players privately because you won’t need to find indoor space to do so like you might have to in cold weather states.

9:15	Paul Swydan: There’s also a quality of competition issue. For the same very reasons. In Mass. right now, no one is playing baseball outdoors yet.

9:15	Ryan: Think Nick Senzel is going to be a star for Cincinnati?

9:16	Paul Swydan: I sure hope so.

9:16	snid: Is there an order of pitch types that MLB teams like to teach? I understand about the wear and tear that diff pitch types cause. I ask this after reading Eno’s and Travis articles about pitchers needing another pitch. Also, thoughts on Dan Duquette as a baseball peson?

9:16	Paul Swydan: On the first part, I think it varies by org/pitching coach/pitching instructor. On the second part, I think Dan Duquette is just about the most underrated baseball executive of the past 40 years. He constantly makes something out of nothing.

9:17	Donny: Rotisserie league – carlos gomez or joc Pederson? Also Realistic outlook for Sean Manaea?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Pederson. Cautiously optimistic about Manaea but I wouldn’t want him as one of my main starters. Strictly a bench option.

9:17	Paul Swydan: At least in mixed leagues.

9:17	Ryan: Think Benintendi is a star akin to Mookie?

9:18	Paul Swydan: I think that I hope he is, but realistically expecting Benintendi to instantly be one of the best 5-10 players in baseball is a great way to be disappointed.

9:18	Matthew: Trying to figure out what to do with my final keeper spot. $260 budget. Hits, OPS, QS, K/9. Keeping Trout (45) Kershaw (43) G. Sanchez (1) and probably Votto (27). Final options are Bogaerts (18) K. Herrera (1) E. Diaz (1) D. Duffy (1) or Goldschmidt (41).

9:19	Paul Swydan: It’d be between Bogaerts and Diaz for me. Maybe Duffy. Gun to my head – there’s nothing like a $1 closer.

9:20	Brad: fantasy league question. Ignoring any potential positional value, who would you father have Bird or Keon Broxton?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Bird

9:20	Mel Clark: Which is more likely this season: Byron Buxton has a 20/20 season or Miguel Sano hits 40 HR’s?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Buxton

9:20	Paul Swydan: But I don’t think either is particularly likely.

9:21	Hannah Hochevar: The O’s say Jayson Aquino will be the 5th starter with Tillman out, based mostly on his striking out of Phillies last week. Is this madness or Buck being a secret genius?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I think it’s way too early to be putting too much stock in pronouncements like that.

9:21	Don’t let Kent Hrbek sit on you: You are driving through a small town in rural Wyoming. You are hungry. The only places open are A&W or Arby’s. What do you choose?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Do I show my fatness if I say both? Cheese curds from A&W and a Giant roast beef from Arby’s? 🙂

9:22	Dino Flintstone: House of Cards was originally on the British channel. Real question: Would you even consider taking Betts or Kershaw over Trout in a league that counts hitter Ks?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t, Dino. Don’t overthink it. Just take Trout.

9:22	einstein2u: 12 team league, 10 man keeper, H2H: xander, betts, harper, miggy, nolan, benintendi, degrom, strasburg, kershaw. Pick my last one: Dee or Verlander

9:23	Paul Swydan: Verlander, because I don’t trust Strasburg.

9:23	Matt : I can’t be the only one who feels like Lester is YEARS older than scherzer right? I had no idea they were only months apart, probably cause I’m always pairing Lackey and Lester

9:24	Paul Swydan: Lester also debuted a year earlier.

9:25

Brandon Funyun: I’m having trouble valuing elite closers in my 7X7 Keeper H2H. (Extra categories: QS and K/9). In the auction calculator, the elite closers get a bump due to the K/9, but it seems that in an H2H the value of a small boost in K/9 and saves per week, and the diminished value of saves with the extra categories hanging around, makes elite closers less valuable. any thoughts? Thanks!

9:25	Paul Swydan: The value of closers and non-closers was the subject of Jeff’s piece today at Hardball Times. I would check that out for sure.

9:26	Paul Swydan: In general, I think adding QS into the mix devalues all relievers because they literally can’t get points in those categories.

9:26	Frank: With the obvious caveat that we shouldn’t put much stock in spring stats, is there a performance so far that you can’t help but be excited about?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Nope. I hate spring training. I haven’t watched one second of one game yet, and probably won’t until the end of the month.

9:26	Nittanychris: 12 Team Mixed Auction, standard 5×5 roto cats. I can protect 3 for one season only. Who do you like out of: Khris Davis $7, Gregory Polanco $13, Odubel Herrera $1, Kenta Maeda $5, Jose Quintana $4, Kevin Gausman $2? Thanks!

9:27	Paul Swydan: For just this year, Davis/Herrera (depending on your power/speed needs), Maeda and Quintana.

9:27	Found a tooth in bag of popcorn: What is your best or most interesting interaction with a major leaguer since you started writing professionally about baseball?

9:28

Paul Swydan: I’ll give you two. First, after interviewing Todd Helton a couple of times when I was editing Rockies Magazine, he started recognizing me in the clubhouse. One day I’m standing there interviewing Brad Hawpe, and Helton walked by and rubbed his bat across my butt as Hawpe was talking. I was like, “uh…..” and I look Hawpe and Helton are doing all they can to not die laughing.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Two, once when I was walking back down the tunnel to the Red Sox clubhouse from the dugout, Dustin Pedroia yelled to me from the dugout completely unprovoked. He yelled, as only he can, “HEY GUY!” / (me looking around) “Ya?” / “NICE F***ING BEARD!”

9:30	Cody: What’s the likelihood that Christian Yelich takes another step forward and bats with greater power or improved average?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I could see a little more power in there, but that’s about it.

9:31	Mr. Met: Do you buy Bradley Zimmer’s “improved swing” reports coming out of camp? Still seems like a .250 hitter who walks enough to steal 20 bags

9:31	Paul Swydan: No, I never buy any of that talk until they do it in April.

9:32	Matthew: Who is/was your favorite player to watch?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Pedro and Manny.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Mookie is climbing the list though.

9:32	VanExelent: Do you think Madison Bumgarner can sense when a player flips his bat, even if it’s hundreds of miles away?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Hahaha. That would be one of the crappiest possible variants of a Spidey Sense.

9:33	Paul Swydan: But if we find out that he can, I’m going to start flipping bats all the time just to piss him off.

9:33	bl27: Eric Gagne is back ! Chance to sign somewhere or too difficult to remove a young prospect from 40-man roster ?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I doubt it.

9:33	Pepper: After Dark Chat is great. After Dark Char on drugs after neck surgery is the all time best! Bryce Harper draft spot of #7. Too low, too high, or right balance of risk/reward after last season? I am voting perfect spot and buying. What say you?

9:33	Paul Swydan: Too high for me. You have to get your first round pick right and after his slump last year I’m wary.

9:34	First Time Poster: Searching for saves in a 12-teamer: I’ve got Jensen, Osuna, and Ramos with Bearclaw and Capps as insurance/upside plays. Would you drop either of the two for Nate jones?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’m morally opposed to owning Capps. His delivery just makes me feel dirty. Because of that I’d drop him for Jones, but I can’t really make a case for it otherwise.

9:35	Jordan: Will the overall number of HRs in the MLB increase or decrease this year?

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’ll say decrease.

9:35	First Time Poster: Who’s gonna be the #1 prospect this time in 2018?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Robles?

9:35	Paul Swydan: You want the Longenhagen chat for that one.

9:35	Pete Wheeler: Any current players you peg as future managers? Or future announcers?

9:36	Paul Swydan: He’s not a current player anymore, but I think it’s only a matter of time before David Ortiz is a broadcaster.

9:36	First Time Poster: Over/Under: Dee Gordon 270/330/400

9:36	Paul Swydan: I’ll be optimistic and take the over.

9:36	Matt: Paul – Who’s better? Mike Trout, or Brock Holt? Not necessarily right now, but long term.

9:37	Paul Swydan: John Farrell, is that you?

9:37	python-r: How does one get a job as a scout? Straight outta college, haven’t played since 6th grade

9:38	Paul Swydan: To the best of my knowledge, the best way is to go to Scout School. And the best way to get to Scout School is to get a team to vouch for your spot there. And you get that to happen by showing up to the ballpark and befriending scouts.

9:38	#coppyandthewhosaysno: Work is severely compromising my ability to participate in this chat. ?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I’m sorry to hear that.

9:38	Yosemite Sam: Thanks for the chat. Do you think bullpenning eventually changes the way we play fbb?

9:39	Paul Swydan: That’s an excellent question. I think you’d have to see usage change a little more drastically than it has for it to get to that point. If your league counts holds, you’re already most of the way to accounting for the changes that have already been made.

9:40	Kevin: Is it dangerous to assume that Charlie blackmons speed is bound to come back this year? I am not sure I buy the power and average gains from last year

9:40	Paul Swydan: I would say that is very dangerous with any player, but especially a player in his 30s like Blackmon.

9:40

Pie: I have my keeper deadline coming up in a 12 team, standard with 5 keepers. I’m currently slated to keep Kershaw, Arenado, Altuve ($36 each), Bregman and Trea ($1 each). Do you think it’s feasible to still cobble together a decent rest of the team with that much draft capital allocated to the keepers? For reference, my other alternatives are a bunch of $1 options: Giles, Edwin Diaz, Dahl, Porcello

9:41	Paul Swydan: Yeah I think you’ll be fine.

9:41	Rick: Without looking, who led the 2008 AL in OPS?

9:41	Paul Swydan: David Ortiz?

9:41	Paul Swydan: Checking

9:42	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=1&season=2008&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

9:42	Paul Swydan: MILTON BRADLEY!

9:42	Paul Swydan: Wow.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Ortiz was 14th, but only if you lower to 400 PA.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I almost guessed Manny. That would have been wrong too. Damn.

9:43	Billy Beane: Trout fell to 3rd in a league I manage and Bryant and Betts went #1-#2. Should I kick those people out of my league for incompetence? I am worried they will endanger the rest of us with their foolishness.

9:43	Paul Swydan: No, just note their tendency to be contrarian. Bryant and Betts are at least defensible top 3 picks.

9:43	Bill : My budget after keepers is $39 to fill out pitching, with 2 top 5 pitchers already kept. Should I try to get a stud closer for around $15 and then piece together a cheap closer and parts and pieces SP? Or do I spend a little less for closers like Robertson or Ramos?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Go cheap on the closers. Get a good SP or 2. Closers will change hands all year. Just make sure you’re reading the Bullpen Report every night!

9:44	The Cincinnati Kid: What do I do with David Dahl as a 10th Rd Keeper? His injury worries me a bit, because I’m full on, in this year. I also have Lamb in Rd 10 and Blackmon in Rd 3 as potential Keeper replacements. Thoughts?

9:45

Paul Swydan: They’re driving that Parra Resurgence narrative pretty hard, and were doing so even before Dahl got hurt. If you’re allowed to make trades before keeper decisions, I’d try to flip Dahl. He’s a great value once he gets healthy and mercifully wrestles the job fully away from Parra, but that might not happen until July.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I def wouldn’t keep Blackmon in the 3rd. A little too rich for my blood.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Though I guess his ADP is 16.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, I don’t think of him as being that good.

9:47	Kevin: No no paul as a boston fan, we remember 2008 as the year manny.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, sorry, I biffed that one.

9:47	snid: Thoughts on Felger and Mazz?

9:48

Paul Swydan: I think Felger is very good at his job, and that is to provoke enough emotion in you – positive or negative – to keep tuning in day after day. Mazz, when he’s on his game, is still a very good analyst, though I feel like radio has dulled his edge a little bit. But I honestly don’t listen enough to them or any other talk radio show to have a fully credible opinion here. I haven’t listened to sports talk regularly in a long time. I don’t like being yelled at.

9:49	CarrotJuice: I think of Capps like Coors Field: MLB is better off with one than zero (b/c they’re so fascinating) but two or more would be terrible.

9:49	Paul Swydan: That’s an interesting perspective, but I still don’t like Capps.

9:49	Paul Swydan: And you can’t make me!

9:49	Zach: I just traded Goldschmidt/Russell for Machado in my 14 team keep forever roto league(r,rbi,hr,sb,h+w). I also own Rizzo. Please tell me it wasn’t a mistake!

9:49	Paul Swydan: OK, it wasn’t a mistake. 🙂

9:49	Mark M.: Keeper question: I have Harper, Mookie, EE, Votto, Yoan Moncada, Kluber, Bumgarner — who is my last keeper: Darvish, Ian Desmond or Gary Sanchez? I am defending champ in an 11 team league.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Sanchez.

9:50	Paul Swydan: You people always have such good keeper lists. My keeper lists never look this sweet.

9:50	Kevin: 2008 was the year manny betrayed sox fans and threw down a beloved travelling secretary. we accept a lot here if you win, but that was too far

9:50	Paul Swydan: Manny made a lot of mistakes. I think hitting his wife was the bigger offense, but he certainly didn’t cover himself in glory with this incident either.

9:51	The Cincinnati Kid: When DO Spring Training stats matter?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Tune in Friday at The Hardball Times for one such instance.

9:51	Kevin: With the proliferation of not just power but all batting average last year, seems like nailing down pitching is the key to winning in fantasy in 2017. Agree?

9:51	Paul Swydan: Yes, but that doesn’t mean you should be drafting it early. You just have to make sure you’re drafting the right pitchers.

9:52	Yosemite Sam: Has anyone done a study on p/pa relative to qs. It would seem that something like p/pa (whip*ip) would tell you how many pitches a pitcher needs to record 18 outs. With 100 typically the magic number before pitcher is pulled. Could qs then be predictable to a point?

9:52	Paul Swydan: It’s something I’ve toyed around with from a hitter standpoint in the past, and there was nothing there. I would guess the same is true for the pitching side of things as well.

9:52	TheLastSuperPower: Over/Under DJ Lemahieu scores 115 runs.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I mean, only 8 guys got to 115 or more runs scored last year, so the answer to that question sort of has to be under.

9:53	Kevin: Buying Rodon? I love the talent and his slider is top notch. If he can get the control, guy is a top 20 guy this year and top 10 upside?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yeah I’m a Rodon believer.

9:53	Milk Trout: Can only keep one of Desmond, Story or Justin Upton in an OBP/SlG league -tearing my hair out!

9:53	Paul Swydan: I’d probably keep Story.

9:54	Dr Evil: How many MLB IF’s are better defensively than the Dutch WBC team (Bogaerts/Simmons/Schoop/Profar)?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Zero?

9:54	Dee’s nutz: What positions are you most comfortable punting on until mid/later rounds

9:54	Paul Swydan: Usually OF.

9:55	Paul Swydan: While it’s always best to let the board come to you, my general trend has always been to make sure I fill up the C/2B/SS/3B/1B positions before the 10th round.

9:55	Kevin: Follow up to proliferation of power question: But if I can draft guys like Trumbo in the 7th round instead of cruz in the 4th, wouldn’t it be wise to take a top pitcher in the 4th? I feel like I can find hitters more easily (beltran types) late than solid pitchers late

9:56	Paul Swydan: I guess it depends on whether you think Trumbo is going to be that good again. I don’t think he will be. Paul Sporer’s article tomorrow at The Hardball Times covers the topic of waiting on elite starting pitchers. Definitely check it out.

9:56	Matt: Well, it’s that time of year again – you buying Stanton?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Stanton is a guy I usually don’t draft, but maybe try to trade for in the middle of the season if he hasn’t impaled on Billy the Marlin yet.

9:57	Paul Swydan: impaled himself

9:57	Ethan: How many questions do I need to ask before I get an answer? ( this is my 5th)

9:57	Paul Swydan: A lot more with that negative attitude, mister!

9:57	Ethan: Cesar Hernandez, .300avg, 10 HR’s and 30 steals ……….lalaland?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think that’s asking for a little too much.

9:58	Fleer: When will the braves be good again?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Conservatively, 2019 or 2020.

9:58	python-r: What happened to Jeff Z?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Jeff is in Phoenix for the SABR Analytics Conference. If you’re there or going there, be sure to say hi to him!

9:58	TheLastSuperPower: I’m a little surprised Castellanos isn’t getting more love as a sleeper this year. Good prospect with good hit tool. Put up good numbers last year until hurt. Only 23. Is there something specific you see, or don’t see, that stands out when watching him?